Generac Holdings Inc. research snapshot
GNRC AI stock analysis currently reads Generac Holdings Inc. as a leading backup power and energy technology company whose 2026 setup improved after a strong first quarter, higher C&I demand, and better data center momentum. The caution is valuation and cyclicality: at the July 8, 2026 data cutoff, GNRC traded near $235.80, about $13.88 billion in market value, roughly 73.9x TTM GAAP EPS, 42.0x TTM free cash flow per share, and 3.2x TTM sales. This page is informational research and not investment advice.
Current price
$235.80
Market cap
$13.88 billion
AI score
58 / 100
Rating
Cyclical power equipment leader with improving 2026 demand signals but thin GAAP valuation support
Trend status
Mixed technical trend, with price below the 50-day average but still above some 200-day references
Data cutoff (updated weekly)
July 8, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Generac sells backup power, energy technology, and related equipment into residential, commercial, industrial, data center, telecom, rental, and industrial markets. | Medium-high |
| Moat | The moat comes from brand leadership in home standby generators, dealer and installer networks, product breadth, service know-how, and power equipment engineering. | Medium |
| Management | CEO Aaron Jagdfeld has long tenure and is repositioning the business toward a more balanced mix, but acquisitions and data center scaling raise execution demands. | Medium |
| Financial trend | FY2025 revenue declined 2.0% to $4.21 billion and net income attributable to Generac fell to $159.6 million, while Q1 2026 sales rose 12% to $1.06 billion. | High |
| Valuation | At $235.80, GNRC trades near 73.9x TTM GAAP EPS, 42.0x TTM FCF per share, 5.2x book value, and 3.2x TTM sales, so the market is underwriting a profit rebound. | Medium-high |
| Technical trend | The technical read is mixed: price is below the 50-day average after a sharp pullback, while longer moving-average signals differ across sources. | Medium |
| Risk level | Main risks are outage-driven demand swings, residential generator cyclicality, tariff and input cost pressure, leverage, C&I backlog execution, and multiple compression. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | Descriptive confidence is high because company releases and third-party data agree closely. Return confidence is lower because valuation depends on an earnings recovery. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | Investment certainty is medium-low at this price. Generac may compound if C&I and data center growth materialize, but the current multiple leaves little room for another demand pause. | Medium-low |
GNRC AI stock forecast
The GNRC AI stock forecast uses scenario math around the $235.80 data cutoff price. It does not claim that AI can predict a precise future stock price. The audited three-year model using TTM GAAP EPS of $3.19 produced a bullish anchor near $234, a base anchor near $147, and a bearish anchor near $67. Those anchors show how much recovery is already priced in when using current GAAP earnings.
$220 to $250
More likely if C&I sales grow in the mid-to-high 20% range, data center approvals convert into firm orders, residential sales recover near management guidance, adjusted EBITDA margin reaches 18.5% to 19.5%, and GAAP earnings normalize quickly.
$135 to $165
More likely if sales grow but mix, tariffs, acquisition integration, and interest expense keep GAAP margins below investor expectations, causing GNRC to trade closer to a normal industrial recovery multiple.
$60 to $80
More likely if outage activity stays weak, residential home standby demand disappoints, data center backlog slips, leverage limits buybacks, or the market values GNRC on depressed GAAP earnings rather than recovery expectations.
GNRC AI technical analysis
GNRC AI technical analysis is mixed to weak as of the July 8, 2026 cutoff. StockAnalysis showed GNRC at $235.80 after the July 7 close, with a 50-day moving average near $264.88, a 200-day moving average near $200.69, RSI near 39.32, and 20-day average volume near 1.0 million shares. Investing.com marked daily indicators as strong sell with RSI near 30.18, MACD near -10.99, a 50-day average near $268.91, and a 200-day average near $272.05. Traders should confirm live levels before acting.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $235.80 | Current market reference used for the July 8, 2026 market-cap and valuation math. |
| Immediate support | $232 to $236 | Recent quote references clustered around the low-to-mid $230s after a sharp one-day decline. |
| Secondary support | $200 to $217 | StockAnalysis listed a 200-day average near $200.69, while AltIndex listed a 200-day simple moving average near $216.90. |
| Major support | $167 | AltIndex identified six-month support near $167.11. A break there would force a fresh thesis review. |
| Near resistance | $264 to $269 | The 50-day moving average range from StockAnalysis, Investing.com, and AltIndex sits around the mid-to-high $260s. |
| Major resistance | $295 to $300 | AltIndex cited six-month resistance near $295.54, making this the first major area for breakout confirmation. |
| Moving averages | Below 50-day, mixed versus 200-day | GNRC was below the 50-day average. The 200-day signal differed by source timing, so traders should refresh chart data. |
| Momentum | RSI 30 to 39, MACD negative | Momentum readings leaned weak after the July 7 decline, with some indicators near oversold but not enough to prove a reversal. |
| Volume | About 1.0 million average 20-day volume | Breakouts above the 50-day area need volume confirmation because the recent move was volatile. |
| Volatility | Beta 1.89 | StockAnalysis listed beta at 1.89, so position sizing should reflect above-market volatility. |
| Invalidation | Close below $200, then below $167 | A sustained break below the 200-day area weakens the recovery setup. A break below six-month support challenges the medium-term thesis. |
GNRC AI trading strategy
The GNRC AI trading strategy below is a rules-based framework, not personalized financial advice. It combines sales mix, C&I backlog, residential demand, margin recovery, leverage, valuation, and technical confirmation.
Wait for GNRC to reclaim the $264 to $269 50-day average zone and hold above it while Q2 2026 results confirm C&I growth, data center traction, and stable residential demand.
A failed reclaim of the 50-day zone keeps the setup tactical. A close below the $200 to $217 200-day area should reduce trend confidence.
If GNRC pulls back toward the 200-day area without a cut to 2026 sales growth or adjusted EBITDA margin guidance, compare the reset price with normalized earnings power rather than depressed TTM GAAP EPS alone.
Do not average down solely on the data center narrative. Require evidence that backlog converts, working capital is controlled, and leverage does not rise faster than EBITDA.
Track Q2 2026 earnings, C&I growth, residential home standby shipments, outage activity, tariff recovery, adjusted EBITDA margin, free cash flow, total debt, and Enercon integration.
Lower the rating if revenue growth comes mostly from acquisitions without margin conversion, if net debt rises, or if GAAP EPS remains too low to support the valuation.
Investment research summary
Customers pay Generac to keep homes, businesses, telecom sites, data centers, and industrial operations powered when grid reliability is uncertain or mission-critical backup power is required.
Generac benefits from brand recognition in home standby generators, channel depth, installer relationships, product breadth, power electronics know-how, and an installed base that supports service and monitoring opportunities.
The thesis can fail if outage activity normalizes below expectations, residential demand stays soft, C&I backlog does not convert, tariff recovery lags, integration costs rise, or investors stop valuing GNRC on future recovery.
Aaron Jagdfeld has led Generac through category expansion and recent portfolio shifts. The key management test is whether acquisitions, data center growth, and residential recovery can convert into GAAP earnings and free cash flow.
Generac is tied to grid resilience, electrification complexity, data center backup power, energy management, and distributed power reliability. These are durable needs, but demand timing can be weather-sensitive and cyclical.
At roughly 73.9x TTM GAAP EPS and 42.0x TTM free cash flow per share, the current price needs a fast earnings rebound. Margin of safety depends on normalized earnings, not the current depressed GAAP run rate.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| GNRC quote reference | $235.80 close on July 7, 2026 | StockAnalysis quote and statistics | July 8, 2026 |
| Market capitalization verification | $13.88 billion calculated from $235.80 x 58.87 million shares, matching reported market cap within 0.01% | Pineify financial_rigor.py and StockAnalysis statistics | July 8, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding | 58.87 million from StockAnalysis, cross-checked against Macrotrends rounded March 2026 share count near 59 million | StockAnalysis and Macrotrends | July 8, 2026 |
| FY2025 revenue | $4.209 billion in Generac FY2025 release, cross-checked with StockAnalysis at about $4.209 billion | Generac FY2025 results and StockAnalysis financials | July 8, 2026 |
| FY2025 net income attributable to Generac | $159.6 million in Generac FY2025 release, cross-checked with StockAnalysis net income to common near $159.55 million | Generac FY2025 results and StockAnalysis financials | July 8, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 sales and segment mix | $1.059 billion total net sales, including $549 million residential external net sales and $510 million C&I external net sales | Generac Q1 2026 results | July 8, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 profit and free cash flow | $73.3 million net income attributable to Generac, $1.24 diluted EPS, and $89.9 million free cash flow | Generac Q1 2026 results | July 8, 2026 |
| Cash and net debt | $265.5 million cash and equivalents at March 31, 2026; calculated net debt including short-term debt, current long-term debt, long-term debt, and long-term leases was about $1.22 billion | Generac Q1 2026 results and StockAnalysis balance sheet | July 8, 2026 |
| Valuation ratios | P/E 73.9x, P/B 5.2x, P/FCF 42.0x, FCF yield 2.38%, and P/S 3.21x using financial_rigor.py | Pineify financial_rigor.py and StockAnalysis financials | July 8, 2026 |
| Technical levels | StockAnalysis listed 50-day MA $264.88, 200-day MA $200.69, RSI 39.32, beta 1.89; Investing.com listed daily RSI 30.18 and MACD -10.99 | StockAnalysis, Investing.com, and AltIndex technical snapshots | July 8, 2026 |
This GNRC AI stock analysis is an informational research tool only. It is not investment advice, a recommendation, or a guarantee of future performance. Forecast scenarios are based on available public data as of July 8, 2026 and can be wrong if Generac results, guidance, interest rates, outage activity, tariffs, data center demand, or market valuation multiples change.
