Generac Holdings Inc. research snapshot
GNRC AI stock analysis currently reads Generac Holdings as a backup power and energy technology company that is being re-rated by the data center boom. On July 29, 2026 the company reported Q2 net sales up 11% to $1.17 billion, commercial and industrial sales up 29%, two hyperscale supply agreements, and a $1.6 billion data center backlog. Even so, at the August 2, 2026 data cutoff the stock closed at $197.11 on July 31, near a $11.63 billion market value, roughly 45x trailing GAAP earnings and 20x forward earnings, and it trades below every major moving average after falling from a late-June peak above $295. This page is informational research and not investment advice.
Current price
$197.11
Market cap
$11.63 billion
AI score
62 / 100
Rating
Data center growth is re-rating Generac into a power technology company, but the stock sits below all major moving averages and the valuation still leans on a fast earnings ramp
Trend status
Weak technical trend: price near $197 is below the 200-day average near $205, with RSI near 31 after a pullback from the $296 June peak
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Generac sells backup power and energy technology for homes, businesses, telecom sites, data centers, industrial and rental markets. Q2 2026 was a turning point, with C&I sales up 29% on data center demand. | Medium-high |
| Moat | The moat comes from home standby brand leadership, a dealer and installer network near 9,700 partners, large-megawatt engineering and packaging know-how, and now multi-year hyperscale supply agreements that validate top-tier supplier status. | Medium-high |
| Management | Aaron Jagdfeld and CFO York Ragen converted data center interest into two hyperscale supply agreements and a $1.6 billion backlog, but they must now triple capacity within 12 months and convert backlog into cash and margin. | Medium |
| Financial trend | FY2025 revenue fell 2.0% to $4.21 billion and net income attributable to Generac fell to $159.6 million, while Q2 2026 net sales rose 11% to $1.17 billion with GAAP net income of $143 million and a 24.8% adjusted EBITDA margin. | High |
| Valuation | At $197.11, GNRC trades near 45x trailing GAAP EPS, 4.0x book value, 30.7x trailing free cash flow and 2.6x sales, while forward P/E is near 20x, so the market is underwriting a large earnings ramp. | Medium-high |
| Technical trend | The technical read is weak: price is below the 20-day, 50-day, 100-day and 200-day moving averages, with RSI near 31, after a decline from the $296.44 late-June peak. | Medium |
| Risk level | Main risks are data center demand concentration, capacity and packaging execution, tariff refunds reversing into higher tariffs, outage-dependent residential demand, leverage, and multiple compression. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | Descriptive confidence is high because company releases and third-party data agree closely. Return confidence is lower because valuation depends on a fast earnings ramp and heavy execution. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | Investment certainty is medium-low at this price. The backlog improves the growth odds versus a year ago, but the current multiple leaves little room for slower data center delivery or a residential pause. | Medium-low |
GNRC AI stock forecast
The GNRC AI stock forecast uses scenario math around the $197.11 data cutoff price. It does not claim that AI can predict a precise future stock price. The audited three-year model using TTM GAAP diluted EPS of $4.34 produced a bullish anchor near $278, a base anchor near $158, and a bearish anchor near $78. Because trailing GAAP earnings still include a weak 2025, these anchors understate the run-rate, which is why the roughly 20x forward multiple matters.
$250 to $300
More likely if the two hyperscale agreements convert into firm 2027 deliveries, data center revenue beats the roughly $450 million 2026 plan, C&I growth stays in the low 30s, residential recovers, and adjusted EBITDA margins hold at 20% or better including tariff refunds.
$150 to $185
More likely if data center revenue grows but margins are diluted by sales mix and capacity investment, tariff refunds reverse into higher tariffs, residential demand stays soft, and the stock trades back toward a normal industrial multiple on normalized earnings.
$70 to $100
More likely if data center order flow slows, hyperscaler deliveries slip into later years, capacity buildout outruns demand, outage activity stays far below baseline, or the market re-rates GNRC on current GAAP earnings rather than recovery expectations.
GNRC AI technical analysis
GNRC AI technical analysis is weak as of the August 2, 2026 cutoff. After closing at $197.11 on July 31, 2026, GNRC trades below its 20-day average near $217, its 100-day average near $236, its 50-day average near $250, and its 200-day average near $205. RSI is near 31, ADX near 38 confirms a downtrend with the negative directional indicator above the positive, and the stock has fallen from a $296.44 52-week high set in late June. Traders should refresh live levels before acting.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $197.11 | Close on July 31, 2026, used for the market-cap and valuation math. |
| Immediate support | $187 to $195 | Late-July intraday lows clustered near $187 to $191, including lows of $187.55, $189.81 and $190.27. |
| Secondary support | $134.80 | The 52-week low is the strongest downside reference if the $187 to $195 zone fails. |
| Near resistance | $204 to $217 | The 200-day average near $204.56 and the 20-day average near $217.05, which agree across StockAnalysis and Barchart. |
| Major resistance | $235 to $250 | The 100-day average near $236 and the 50-day average near $249.84 mark the first major overhead zones. |
| Breakdown or breakout | $280 to $296 | The late-June peak zone around $295 to $296 is major resistance; a reclaim there would signal trend repair. |
| Moving averages | Below all major averages | Price is below the 20-day, 50-day, 100-day and 200-day averages, with the 200-day near $205 acting as the key pivot. |
| Momentum | RSI near 31, ADX near 38 | Momentum favors sellers and the negative directional indicator is above the positive. RSI is approaching oversold, so a short-term bounce is possible but not proven. |
| Volume | About 1.1 million average 20-day volume | Post-earnings volume was heavy, near 2.7 million shares on July 29, which points to active distribution near the highs. |
| Volatility | Beta 1.89 | StockAnalysis lists beta at 1.89 and 20-day historic volatility near 40%, so position sizing should reflect above-market moves. |
| Invalidation | Close below $187, then below $135 | A sustained break under the recent support zone weakens the setup. A break of the 52-week low challenges the longer-term thesis. |
GNRC AI trading strategy
The GNRC AI trading strategy below is a rules-based framework, not personalized financial advice. It combines data center backlog conversion, C&I and residential growth, margin and leverage, valuation, and technical confirmation.
Wait for GNRC to reclaim and hold the $204 to $217 moving-average zone on rising volume while Q3 2026 results confirm data center deliveries, C&I growth in the low 30s and no margin downgrade.
Until price reclaims the 50-day area near $250, treat rallies as countertrend. A close below $187 should reduce trend confidence.
If GNRC stabilizes near the $187 to $205 zone without guidance cuts, compare the reset price against forward earnings power, near 20x forward P/E, rather than depressed trailing GAAP EPS alone.
Do not average down purely on the data center narrative. Require evidence that hyperscaler deliveries convert, capacity investment stays near the guided ~4.5% of sales, and gross leverage stays within the 1 to 2x target.
Track Q3 and Q4 2026 results, data center revenue versus the roughly $450 million plan, the second hyperscaler agreement terms, residential home standby trends, tariff refunds versus new tariffs, adjusted EBITDA margin, free cash flow near the $350 million guide, and gross debt leverage.
Lower the rating if data center revenue stalls, margins fall below the guided range excluding tariff refunds, net debt rises faster than EBITDA, or forward multiple compression becomes the base case.
Investment research summary
Customers pay Generac to keep homes, businesses, telecom sites, data centers and industrial operations powered when grid reliability is uncertain or backup power is mission-critical. The data center end market is now the growth engine, with more than $100 million of revenue recognized in Q2 2026.
Generac combines home standby brand leadership, a dealer and installer network near 9,700 partners, large-megawatt engineering, packaging and service capabilities, and multi-year hyperscale supply agreements that validate its position as a top-tier backup power supplier.
The thesis can fail if data center orders slow or slip into later years, capacity buildout outruns demand, hyperscalers dual-source away volume, tariff refunds reverse into cost pressure, residential demand stays weak, or investors stop valuing GNRC on recovery rather than current GAAP earnings.
Aaron Jagdfeld and CFO York Ragen converted interest into two hyperscale supply agreements and a $1.6 billion data center backlog. The key test is executing the capacity plan across Sussex, Enercon and Belvidere and converting backlog into cash flow and margin.
GNRC sits inside the AI infrastructure and grid resilience boom. Data center backup power, telecom hardening and electrification demand are durable needs, and management sees a path to triple large-megawatt capacity within the next 12 months.
At about 45x trailing GAAP EPS, 30.7x trailing free cash flow and 20x forward earnings, the current price underwrites a fast earnings ramp. The data center backlog improves the odds, but the margin of safety still depends on execution rather than today's GAAP run-rate.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| GNRC quote reference | $197.11 close on July 31, 2026 | StockAnalysis quote and statistics | August 2, 2026 |
| Market capitalization verification | $11.63 billion calculated from $197.11 x 59.01 million shares, matching reported market cap within 0.01% | Pineify financial_rigor.py and StockAnalysis statistics | August 2, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding | 59.01 million from StockAnalysis, with 57.93 million in float | StockAnalysis statistics | August 2, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 net sales and segment mix | $1.17 billion total net sales up 11%, including $556 million C&I up 29% and $621 million residential down 2% | Generac Q2 2026 results and earnings call | August 2, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 profit and margin | GAAP net income $143 million, diluted EPS $2.40, gross margin 44.5%, adjusted EBITDA $291 million or 24.8% of sales, including roughly $71 million of pre-tax tariff refunds | Generac Q2 2026 results | August 2, 2026 |
| Data center backlog and hyperscale agreements | $1.6 billion data center backlog, roughly $1 billion of orders in the last 90 days, two hyperscale supply agreements with the first near $700 million for 2027, and about $450 million of expected 2026 data center revenue | Generac Q2 2026 earnings call transcript | August 2, 2026 |
| TTM income statement | Revenue $4.44 billion, net income to common $258.2 million, diluted EPS $4.34, operating income $421 million, EBITDA $636 million | StockAnalysis income statement | August 2, 2026 |
| Cash, debt and leverage | Cash and equivalents $264.9 million, total debt near $1.50 billion, net debt near $1.24 billion; about $1.33 billion of debt at June 30, 2026 with 1.5x gross leverage per the Q2 call | StockAnalysis balance sheet and Generac Q2 2026 earnings call | August 2, 2026 |
| Valuation ratios | P/E TTM 45.4x, forward P/E 20.0x, P/B 4.04x, P/S 2.62x, P/FCF 30.7x, FCF yield 3.26% using financial_rigor.py | Pineify financial_rigor.py and StockAnalysis statistics | August 2, 2026 |
| Technical levels | StockAnalysis and Barchart both list 50-day MA $249.84, 200-day MA $204.56, RSI 31.09, beta 1.89; Barchart adds 20-day MA $217.05, 100-day MA $236.18, ADX near 38 | StockAnalysis statistics and Barchart technical analysis | August 2, 2026 |
| Analyst consensus | Buy rating from 21 analysts with an average price target of $286.81, about 46% above the current price, with targets ranging from $214 to $333 after Q2 results | StockAnalysis forecast and TheFly analyst notes | August 2, 2026 |
This GNRC AI stock analysis is an informational research tool only. It is not investment advice, a recommendation, or a guarantee of future performance. Forecast scenarios are based on available public data as of August 2, 2026 and can be wrong if Generac results, hyperscaler deliveries, capacity execution, tariffs, outage activity, interest rates, data center demand, or market valuation multiples change.
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