Formula One Group research snapshot
FWONA AI stock analysis sees Formula One Group as a scarce global motorsports-rights owner. Customers pay for Formula 1 media rights, race promotion, sponsorship, hospitality, licensing, and premium experiences, while MotoGP adds a second rights platform. At the August 2, 2026 data cutoff, the latest independently verified close was $89.81 on July 31. A reported $22.49 billion market capitalization and a Macrotrends trailing earnings multiple near 41.2x leave limited room for operational disappointment, and Q1 2026 reported a 59% revenue increase to $711 million on a strong race calendar, while consolidated net leverage was about 3.0x. Q2 2026 results are scheduled for August 6. This FWONA AI stock analysis is informational research, not investment advice.
Current price
$89.81 close on July 31, 2026
Market cap
$22.49 billion reported market capitalization
AI score
65 / 100
Rating
Rare global sports-rights asset, balanced against leverage, event risk, and a valuation that needs continued execution
Trend status
Holding above the reported 50-day and 200-day moving averages of $86.35 and $84.29, with the RSI near 51; the July 31 close sits below the $99.52 reported 52-week high and above the $73.70 reported 52-week low
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Formula One Group monetizes exclusive motorsports rights through media, sponsorship, race-promotion fees, hospitality, licensing, freight, and premium experiences. Formula 1 is the core engine and MotoGP broadens the portfolio. | High |
| Moat | Exclusive Formula 1 commercial rights, a global calendar, teams, promoters, broadcasters, sponsors, fan habits, and scarce live-sports inventory create a difficult-to-replicate position. | High |
| Management | Management has to protect long-term ecosystem economics while integrating MotoGP and managing borrowing. The MotoGP debt-facility repricing closed in June 2026, the remaining buyback authorization was about $1.1 billion as of May 1, 2026, and the key test is capital discipline, not simply adding events or sponsors. | Medium-high |
| Financial trend | FY2025 consolidated revenue was $4.48 billion, including about $3.87 billion from Formula 1 and $325 million from MotoGP. Q1 2026 revenue was $711 million, up about 59% year over year, but calendar timing makes quarterly annualization unreliable. | High |
| Valuation | At $89.81, financial-rigor math using a $2.18 Macrotrends TTM EPS, $31.72 book value per share, and $2.85 free cash flow per share gives about 41.2x PE, 2.83x PB, and 31.5x P/FCF. A premium multiple needs durable growth. | Medium |
| Technical trend | The verified July 31 close of $89.81 sits above the reported 50-day average of $86.35 and 200-day average of $84.29, with RSI near 51 and a 20-day average volume of about 164,273 shares. | Medium |
| Risk level | Risk is medium-high: the group faces rights-renewal, event, consumer-demand, geopolitical, regulatory, leverage, integration, and valuation risks. | High |
| AI confidence | Disclosed business and financial facts have high confidence. Scenario analysis and technical references have lower confidence because they cannot predict event economics or market valuation. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | Medium certainty. A distinctive business does not automatically create a margin of safety when the share price already assumes sustained commercial success. | Medium |
FWONA AI stock forecast
The FWONA AI stock forecast uses scenarios around the $89.81 July 31 close, not a point prediction. A three-year financial-rigor sensitivity model using a $2.18 EPS, 20%, 12%, and 4% growth assumptions, and 50x, 40x, and 30x terminal PE multiples produced $188.40, $122.50, and $73.60. These mechanical outputs are not targets and do not model dilution, debt changes, acquisitions, or distributions.
$150 to $190
More likely if Formula 1 sustains media-rights and sponsorship growth, premium experiences expand, MotoGP integration adds profit, fan engagement broadens, cash flow reduces leverage pressure, and investors retain a premium multiple. The August 6 Q2 2026 report is the next near-term test.
$100 to $130
More likely if commercial growth normalizes but remains healthy, Formula 1 and MotoGP execute well, team payments and interest costs stay manageable, and the valuation multiple remains elevated but not extreme. Analysts polled by S&P Global held a Strong Buy rating with an average target of about $107.83 and a reported range of $100 to $115 as of late July 2026.
$65 to $80
More likely if rights or promoter economics weaken, event disruption or consumer softness hurts premium demand, MotoGP integration disappoints, debt limits flexibility, or investors reset the earnings multiple lower.
FWONA AI technical analysis
FWONA AI technical analysis uses the $89.81 July 31, 2026 close and the reported 50-day and 200-day moving averages of $86.35 and $84.29, an RSI near 51.22, a 20-day average volume of about 164,273, and the published 52-week range of $73.70 to $99.52. Levels below are a risk-management framework, not a signal that removes the need for live chart confirmation.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price reference | $89.81 close | StockAnalysis reported the July 31, 2026 regular-session close at $89.81, down about 2.37% on the day. |
| Immediate support | $86 to $88 | This zone sits near the reported 50-day moving average of $86.35 and should be rechecked against live chart data before use. |
| Lower support | $73.70 to $80 | The published 52-week low near $73.70 is a historical reference, not a forecast floor. |
| Near resistance | $93 to $95 | The late-July price zone around $93.50 to $95 is the first area where a move should be confirmed by current volume and fundamentals. |
| Major resistance | $99.52 | The published 52-week high is a historical reference, not a price target. |
| Moving averages | 50-day $86.35, 200-day $84.29 | StockAnalysis reported the 50-day moving average at $86.35 and the 200-day moving average at $84.29; the July 31 close held above both. |
| Momentum and volume | RSI near 51.22, 20-day average volume about 164,273 | Momentum was roughly neutral at the cutoff. Monitor volume around the August 6 Q2 2026 earnings, race-calendar changes, media-rights news, MotoGP updates, and event disruptions. |
| Volatility | Event, rights, and valuation sensitive | The reported beta of about 0.73 is below market, but price can still react to media contracts, promoter fees, premium-demand evidence, interest rates, and changes in growth expectations. |
| Invalidation | Sustained break below $73.70 or weaker rights economics | A new 52-week low warrants a fresh review of cash flow, leverage, commercial contracts, and the investment thesis. |
FWONA AI trading strategy
The FWONA AI trading strategy is a research framework, not personalized advice. It connects price action with Formula 1 media rights, sponsorship, race-promotion fees, hospitality, MotoGP integration, debt, interest expense, free cash flow, and calendar developments.
Use a current chart to test whether FWONA can hold above the $86 to $88 reference area and clear the $93 to $95 zone with stronger volume while reported Formula 1 and MotoGP revenue, Adjusted OIBDA, and debt metrics support the move.
Treat a failed breakout or a sustained move below the verified $73.70 52-week low as a reason to reassess the trend and fundamentals rather than average down automatically.
If FWONA retests lower levels without a deterioration in media, sponsor, promoter, or hospitality economics, compare the live price with free cash flow, debt, interest expense, share count, and the next race calendar.
Do not assume a lower price is a bargain if the decline follows a rights-renewal setback, major event disruption, debt increase, or evidence that premium demand has weakened.
Track Formula 1 media rights, sponsorship, race-promotion fees, Paddock Club and Las Vegas hospitality, team payments, MotoGP revenue and margins, fan attendance, viewership, net debt, interest expense, share count, and the August 6 Q2 2026 report.
Position sizing should reflect the gap between a distinctive sports-rights business and a security whose valuation can change sharply with growth expectations.
Investment research summary
Customers pay Formula One Group for access to exclusive global motorsports platforms: media distribution, sponsorship inventory, race promotion, hospitality, premium experiences, licensing, and related services. Formula 1 is the core economic engine and MotoGP is the new growth option.
The core moat is exclusive commercial control of Formula 1, reinforced by a global event calendar, teams, promoters, broadcasters, sponsors, fan habit, and the difficulty of recreating a comparable live-sports property. MotoGP can add scale, but its economics need separate proof.
The thesis can fail if fan engagement weakens, media or promoter contracts reprice poorly, team payments absorb incremental revenue, premium hospitality demand softens, regulation constrains events, MotoGP integration disappoints, or leverage makes a setback costly.
The management test is protecting the long-run value of teams, promoters, broadcasters, fans, and sponsors while allocating capital carefully after the MotoGP acquisition, completing the June 2026 debt repricing, and retaining balance-sheet flexibility.
Live global sports, direct-to-consumer viewing, premium travel, experiential spending, and social-media distribution are favorable long-term trends. Offsets include fragmented attention, geopolitical disruption, environmental rules, broadcaster pressure, and consumer cyclicality.
At $89.81, valuation assumes continuing commercial growth and durable premium economics. A margin of safety would come from evidence that rights, sponsorship, hospitality, and MotoGP cash flows grow while leverage remains manageable, not from relying on Formula 1 brand strength alone.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| Security identity and share-class rights | FWONA is the Liberty Formula One Series A common stock, which has one vote per share and trades on Nasdaq, and tracks the economic performance of Formula One Group. | Liberty Media investor FAQ | August 2, 2026 |
| Price, shares, and market capitalization | $89.81 close on July 31, 2026, down about 2.37% on the day; 250.05 million group shares outstanding; $22.49 billion reported market capitalization. | StockAnalysis FWONA overview and statistics | August 2, 2026 |
| Market-cap arithmetic check | Pineify financial_rigor.py verified $89.81 multiplied by 250.05 million shares equals $22.46 billion, a 0.15% difference from the reported $22.49 billion market capitalization. | Pineify financial-rigor calculation using StockAnalysis inputs | August 2, 2026 |
| FY2025 revenue breakdown | FY2025 consolidated revenue was $4.48 billion, including about $3.87 billion from Formula 1 and $325 million from MotoGP, with Formula 1 Adjusted OIBDA near $946 million and MotoGP Adjusted OIBDA near $117 million. | StockAnalysis Formula One Group KPIs and financial statements (Fiscal.ai) | August 2, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 revenue | Q1 2026 consolidated revenue was $711 million, up about 59% year over year, with Formula 1 revenue near $617 million (up 53%) and MotoGP revenue near $94 million (up 25%), consistent with the Liberty Media Q1 2026 earnings release and 10-Q. | Liberty Media Q1 2026 earnings release and StockAnalysis quarterly income statement | August 2, 2026 |
| Cash and debt source gap | A current StockAnalysis statistics presentation showed $1.29 billion cash and $5.16 billion debt, while Liberty Media reported about $1.33 billion cash and $4.99 billion debt on the March 31, 2026 balance sheet (about $5.02 billion on a GAAP basis). The difference reflects reporting-date and attribution differences, so this page does not present a single net-cash figure as a consensus fact. | StockAnalysis FWONA statistics and Liberty Media Q1 2026 10-Q | August 2, 2026 |
| Consolidated leverage | As of March 31, 2026, Liberty Media reported consolidated net leverage near 3.0x, Formula 1 leverage near 2.3x, and MotoGP leverage near 4.7x, with both F1 and MotoGP in compliance with their debt covenants. | Liberty Media Q1 2026 earnings release | August 2, 2026 |
| Earnings-per-share source gap | Macrotrends reported a trailing-twelve-month EPS of $2.18 as of the March 2026 quarter and a PE near 41.2x as of July 31, 2026, while StockAnalysis statistics showed a lower EPS figure and a higher PE. This page uses the Macrotrends TTM EPS of $2.18 for the financial-rigor valuation, consistent with the reported full-year EPS, and flags the cross-source gap. | Macrotrends FWONA PE ratio and StockAnalysis statistics | August 2, 2026 |
| Valuation inputs and calculation | Using a $2.18 TTM EPS, $31.72 book value per share, and $2.85 free cash flow per share, Pineify financial_rigor.py calculated a PE of about 41.2x, a PB of about 2.83x, a P/FCF of about 31.5x, and a free-cash-flow yield near 3.17%. | Macrotrends, StockAnalysis, and Pineify financial-rigor calculation | August 2, 2026 |
| Analyst consensus and price target | Six analysts polled by S&P Global held a Strong Buy consensus with an average 12-month price target of about $107.83 and a reported range of $100 to $115 as of late July 2026. Recent actions included a Guggenheim target to $116 on July 29, 2026, a TD Cowen target to $118 on July 6, 2026, and a Citizens JMP target to $120 on July 2, 2026. | StockAnalysis FWONA forecast and ratings | August 2, 2026 |
| Upcoming Q2 2026 earnings | Liberty Media scheduled its Q2 2026 earnings release and conference call for August 6, 2026, before market open, as announced on July 14, 2026. | Liberty Media press release and StockAnalysis earnings calendar | August 2, 2026 |
| MotoGP debt repricing | Liberty Media announced the closing of the repricing of the MotoGP debt facilities on June 17, 2026. | Liberty Media press release | August 2, 2026 |
This page is an informational research tool, not investment advice, a recommendation, or a solicitation to buy or sell any security. Forecast ranges are scenarios based on available data and assumptions, can be wrong, and may change without notice. Verify live prices, filings, and your own risk constraints before making any decision.
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