Formula One Group research snapshot
FWONK AI stock analysis currently reads Formula One Group as an asset-light global motorsports rights owner with Formula 1 media, sponsorship, race-promotion, hospitality, licensing, and MotoGP growth options. Its scarcity, contractual revenue, expanding fan base, and premium experiences support business quality, while the price embeds a demanding growth path and the group carries substantial debt. At the August 2, 2026 data cutoff, the latest independently verified close was $98.13 on July 31. That price multiplied by 250.01 million shares equals a market capitalization of about $24.53 billion. The FWONK AI stock forecast is scenario-based, not a precise price prediction, and this page is informational research rather than investment advice. The Q2 2026 earnings release is scheduled for August 6, 2026, before market open.
Current price
$98.13 close on July 31, 2026
Market cap
$24.53 billion verified market cap
AI score
70 / 100
Rating
Scarce global sports rights asset, with high valuation and leverage sensitivity
Trend status
Above the 50-day and 200-day moving averages, with neutral momentum at RSI 52.45
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Formula One Group sells media rights, sponsorship, race-promotion fees, hospitality, licensing, freight, and premium experiences around Formula 1, while MotoGP adds a second global motorsports rights platform. | High |
| Moat | The moat is the exclusive commercial rights to Formula 1, a global calendar, entrenched teams and promoters, scarce live-sports inventory, brand momentum, and a growing direct-to-consumer and hospitality ecosystem. | High |
| Management | Management extended the Concorde Agreement through 2030, integrated MotoGP after the July 2025 acquisition, completed the Liberty Live split-off, and repriced MotoGP debt in June 2026. The test is disciplined capital allocation and execution without sacrificing the economics of the core Formula 1 franchise. | Medium-high |
| Financial trend | FY2025 revenue was about $4.48 billion with Formula 1 revenue up 14% to $3.87 billion and MotoGP pro forma revenue up 14% to $573 million. Q1 2026 revenue was $711 million, up 59% year over year, aided by Formula 1 calendar timing and MotoGP, so a single quarter should not be annualized mechanically. | High |
| Valuation | At $98.13, financial-rigor tool math on third-party TTM inputs gives about 116.8x EPS and 34.5x free cash flow. StockAnalysis reports a trailing PE near 104.5x, a forward PE near 44.4x, and EV/EBITDA near 30.6x. The valuation depends on growth, margin expansion, and a durable premium multiple. | Medium |
| Technical trend | The July 31 close was above the published 50-day average of $93.78 and 200-day average of $91.92, while RSI near 52.45 suggests neutral momentum after the earlier stronger reading. | Medium |
| Risk level | Risk is high because the 2026 Formula 1 calendar was cut from 24 to 22 races after Bahrain and Saudi Arabia were cancelled due to the Middle East conflict, while the group has about $5.16 billion of debt, event and media-rights concentration, regulatory exposure, consumer-spending sensitivity, and rich valuation risk. | High |
| AI confidence | Reported data and market-cap math have high confidence. Forecast confidence is lower because F1 and MotoGP calendars, rights renewals, event economics, the Middle East conflict, and market sentiment are not predictable with precision. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | Medium certainty. The business has a rare franchise, but a favorable investment outcome still requires growth to match a premium valuation and leverage to remain manageable. | Medium |
FWONK AI stock forecast
The FWONK AI stock forecast uses scenario ranges around the $98.13 July 31 close rather than a point target. A mechanical three-year financial-rigor model using $0.84 TTM EPS, 55%, 35%, and 10% growth assumptions, and 45x, 35x, and 25x terminal multiples produced about $141, $72, and $28. These are sensitivity outputs, not forecasts, and do not capture dilution, debt changes, acquisitions, the reduced 2026 calendar, or future cash distributions. Analyst consensus as of late July 2026 was Strong Buy with a mean price target of $118.56 across 16 analysts.
$125 to $150
More likely if Formula 1 sustains media-rights and sponsorship growth, hospitality and race-promotion economics improve, MotoGP integration adds profit, fan engagement broadens, the 2026 calendar returns toward normal, debt falls relative to cash flow, and investors retain a premium multiple.
$95 to $120
More likely if revenue grows at a healthy but normalizing pace, Formula 1 and MotoGP execution is sound, the Middle East conflict is contained, team payments and interest costs rise with revenue, and the multiple holds near the analyst consensus mean of $118.56.
$60 to $90
More likely if media-rights or promoter economics disappoint, the Middle East conflict further disrupts the calendar, motorsports demand weakens, MotoGP integration misses targets, leverage constrains flexibility, a major event is disrupted, or investors sharply derate the earnings multiple.
FWONK AI technical analysis
FWONK AI technical analysis was constructive as of the August 2, 2026 data cutoff, using the July 31 close of $98.13. StockAnalysis listed a 50-day moving average near $93.78, a 200-day moving average near $91.92, RSI near 52.45, and 20-day average volume near 1.90 million shares. Short interest was about 6.61 million shares, or 2.64% of shares outstanding. These are reference levels, not a trading signal.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price reference | $98.13 close | StockAnalysis reported the July 31, 2026 regular-session close at $98.13. |
| Immediate support | $96 to $97 | The recent trading range and day low near $97.38 make this the first short-term support reference. |
| 50-day support | $93 to $94 | The published 50-day moving average near $93.78 sits in this area and is the next reference if price loses the near-term zone. |
| 200-day support | $91 to $92 | The 200-day moving average near $91.92 is the longer trend reference and matters most if both moving-average areas fail. |
| Near resistance | $100 to $101 | The round-number zone near $100 and the July 31 high of $100.48 need volume confirmation before being treated as a sustained breakout. |
| Major resistance | $109 to $110 | StockAnalysis listed the 52-week high near $109.36, making this a historical reference rather than a price target. |
| Moving averages | 50-day $93.78, 200-day $91.92 | Price above both averages supports the current trend, but the averages are close together and can reverse quickly. |
| Momentum | RSI near 52.45 | Momentum is neutral after the earlier stronger reading and is not a substitute for earnings and valuation analysis. |
| Volume and volatility | 20-day average volume near 1.90 million shares; short interest 6.61 million shares; 5-year beta 0.73 | Watch volume around the August 6, 2026 earnings release, calendar announcements, media-rights news, MotoGP updates, and race disruptions. |
| Invalidation | Sustained close below $90, especially with weaker fundamentals | A loss of both moving-average zones would weaken the trend framework. Fundamental invalidation also includes weaker rights economics, further calendar cuts, or rising leverage without matching cash flow. |
FWONK AI trading strategy
The FWONK AI trading strategy below is a rules-based research framework, not personal advice. It links price action with Formula 1 media rights, sponsorship, race-promotion fees, MotoGP integration, debt, interest expense, free cash flow, and event-calendar developments, including the reduced 2026 schedule.
Watch for FWONK to hold above $93 to $94 and clear $100 to $101 on stronger volume while reported Formula 1 and MotoGP revenue, Adjusted OIBDA, and debt metrics support the move.
A failed breakout followed by a sustained close below $90 should reduce trend confidence, especially if earnings or rights commentary weakens.
If FWONK retests $93 to $97 without a deterioration in media, sponsor, promoter, or hospitality economics, compare the lower price with cash flow, debt, interest expense, and the next calendar of events.
Do not assume a lower price is a bargain if the decline follows a rights-renewal setback, a further Middle East calendar cut, major event disruption, debt increase, or evidence that premium demand has softened.
Track Formula 1 media rights, sponsorship, race-promotion fees, Paddock Club and Las Vegas hospitality, team payments, MotoGP revenue and margins, fan attendance, viewership, the 2026 event calendar, net debt, interest expense, and share count.
Position sizing should reflect the gap between a distinctive sports-rights business and a security whose valuation can move sharply with growth expectations.
Investment research summary
Customers pay Formula One Group for access to an exclusive global motorsports platform: media distribution, sponsorship inventory, race promotion, hospitality, premium experiences, licensing, and associated services. Formula 1 is the core economic engine, with MotoGP expanding the rights portfolio.
The key moat is exclusive commercial control of Formula 1, reinforced by a global event calendar, teams, promoters, broadcasters, sponsors, fan habit, and the difficulty of recreating a comparable live-sports property. MotoGP can add scale, but its economics need separate proof.
The thesis can fail if the sport loses engagement, media or promoter contracts reprice poorly, the Middle East conflict keeps cutting the calendar, team payments absorb incremental revenue, premium hospitality demand softens, regulation constrains events, MotoGP integration disappoints, or leverage makes a setback costly.
The relevant management test is not simply expanding the calendar. It is protecting the long-run value of teams, promoters, broadcasters, fans, and sponsors while allocating capital carefully after the MotoGP acquisition, integrating MotoGP debt, and maintaining balance-sheet flexibility.
Live global sports, direct-to-consumer viewing, premium travel, experiential spending, and social-media distribution are favorable long-term trends. Offsets include fragmented attention, geopolitical disruption, environmental rules, broadcaster pressure, and consumer cyclicality.
The current price assumes durable growth and strong monetization. A margin of safety would come from evidence that rights, sponsorship, hospitality, and MotoGP cash flows grow while debt declines, not from relying on the fame of Formula 1 alone.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| Current price reference and market capitalization | $98.13 close, 250.01 million shares, and $24.53 billion market capitalization | StockAnalysis FWONK statistics | August 2, 2026 |
| Market-cap arithmetic check | $98.13 multiplied by 250.01 million shares equals $24.533 billion, a 0.01% difference from reported market cap | Pineify financial-rigor calculation using StockAnalysis inputs | August 2, 2026 |
| FY2025 revenue | About $4.48 billion consolidated, with Formula 1 revenue of $3.87 billion up 14% and MotoGP pro forma revenue of $573 million up 14% | Liberty Media FY2025 results | August 2, 2026 |
| FY2025 profitability | Formula 1 operating income of $632 million up 28% and Formula 1 Adjusted OIBDA of $946 million up 20% | Liberty Media FY2025 results | August 2, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 revenue | $711 million, up 59.06% year over year according to StockAnalysis; SEC explains the increase included Formula 1 calendar timing and MotoGP | Liberty Media Q1 2026 Form 10-Q and StockAnalysis | August 2, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 operating drivers | Primary Formula 1 revenue increased $177 million and other Formula 1 revenue increased $37 million year over year; consolidated operating income was $64 million and Adjusted OIBDA was $181 million | Liberty Media Q1 2026 Form 10-Q | August 2, 2026 |
| Cash and debt | $1.29 billion cash and cash equivalents, $5.16 billion total debt, and about $3.87 billion net debt on third-party TTM presentation | StockAnalysis FWONK statistics | August 2, 2026 |
| TTM profitability and free cash flow | $4.04 billion revenue, $222 million net income, $0.84 EPS, and $712 million free cash flow. Free-cash-flow presentation differs across data-provider ratio calculations and should be treated as a source limitation. | StockAnalysis FWONK statistics and financials | August 2, 2026 |
| Technical references | 50-day moving average $93.78, 200-day moving average $91.92, RSI 52.45, and 20-day average volume 1.90 million shares | StockAnalysis FWONK statistics | August 2, 2026 |
| Analyst consensus | Strong Buy from 16 analysts with a mean price target of $118.56, a median of $119.50, and a range of $97 to $135 | StockAnalysis FWONK forecast | August 2, 2026 |
| Commercial agreements and fan data | The 2026 Concorde Agreement was signed through 2030; 2025 Formula 1 attendance was 6.75 million and live viewership rose 21% year over year; the 2026 Formula 1 calendar was reduced from 24 to 22 races after Bahrain and Saudi Arabia were cancelled | Liberty Media FY2025 results and Q1 2026 Form 10-Q | August 2, 2026 |
| Recent developments | Q2 2026 earnings scheduled for August 6, 2026; MotoGP debt repricing closed June 17, 2026; Formula 1 and Flexjet announced a multi-year partnership July 1, 2026 | Business Wire and Liberty Media announcements | August 2, 2026 |
This FWONK research page is an informational tool, not investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell a security. Forecast ranges are scenarios based on available data and explicit assumptions. They can be wrong, and investors should verify primary sources and assess their own objectives, risk tolerance, and financial circumstances.
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