Frontline plc research snapshot
FRO AI stock analysis as of the August 3, 2026 data cutoff reads Frontline plc as a large crude and product tanker owner riding a boom year that now carries clear reversion risk. The stock closed at $39.37 on July 31, 2026, up 0.69% on the day, with an after-hours print of $39.60 and a market capitalization of $8.76 billion, re-verified during this full refresh as $39.37 times 222,622,889 shares outstanding, matching the StockAnalysis.com quote and the SEC EDGAR FY2025 Form 20-F cover. Q1 2026 delivered revenue of $714.2 million, profit of $559.1 million or $2.51 per share, and adjusted profit of $344.9 million, the strongest since the fourth quarter of 2004, driven by the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which removed roughly one-fifth of global seaborne oil exports and pushed spot TCEs to $103,500 for VLCCs, $72,400 for Suezmax, and $50,700 for LR2/Aframax tankers. The Q1 2026 dividend of $1.55 per share was declared, and management secured parts of near-term revenue at even higher levels: Q2 2026 contracted spot TCEs reached $181,700 per day for VLCCs, $131,300 for Suezmax, and $125,000 for LR2/Aframax, at 82%, 79%, and 68% coverage, respectively, against cash breakevens near $24,300 a day. The balance sheet also improved, with total debt falling to $2.63 billion and net debt to $2.16 billion as of March 31, 2026, from $3.07 billion total debt at year end 2025. Offsetting the strength, the stock trades near its 52-week high of $43.10, up about 110% over the trailing year, at roughly 5.1x consensus FY2026 EPS of $7.69, while analysts expect FY2027 EPS to fall about 52% to $3.71 as a Middle East de-escalation would reopen Hormuz and normalize rates. The consensus rating is Buy with a $44.25 average target across four analysts, with a wide $37 to $55 range, and TTM dividends of $3.13 per share imply a 7.95% yield at the current price. This page is for informational use only and is not investment advice.
Current price
$39.37
Market cap
$8.76 billion
AI score
60 / 100
Rating
Boom-year earnings and an improving balance sheet, offset by heavy tanker-cycle reversion risk near a cycle high
Trend status
Above the 20-day, 50-day, and 200-day moving averages with a weak-trend, overbought short-term setup
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Frontline owns and commercially operates one of the largest crude and product tanker fleets, with 80 vessels including 41 VLCCs, 21 Suezmax, and 18 LR2/Aframax tankers at December 31, 2025, earning revenue from vessel utilization, voyage execution, charter mix, and volatile freight rates. | High |
| Moat | The moat is a scale and asset platform: fleet size, modern scrubber-fitted tonnage, chartering relationships, market data, financing access, and operating know-how. It is useful in a fragmented market but does not prevent freight-rate compression when supply exceeds demand. | Medium |
| Management | Management renewed the fleet by selling eight older ECO VLCCs and two oldest Suezmax tankers, acquiring nine latest-generation ECO VLCC newbuildings from Hemen affiliates with up to $737 million of financing, refinanced existing debt on attractive terms, fixed part of near-term revenue at record rates, and kept a variable dividend model, while Hemen Holding holds 35.6% of the shares. | Medium-high |
| Financial trend | FY2025 total revenues and other operating income was $1.971 billion with net income of $379.1 million and EPS of $1.70. Q1 2026 revenue was $714.2 million with profit of $559.1 million or $2.51 per share, including a $210.9 million vessel-sale gain, and TTM net income reached $904.9 million, while net debt fell to $2.16 billion as of March 31, 2026. | High |
| Valuation | At $39.37, the local audit gives 9.70x TTM EPS, 3.09x book value, 14.80x TTM free cash flow, and a 7.95% trailing dividend yield on TTM dividends of $3.13. Forward valuation is only 5.12x consensus FY2026 EPS of $7.69, but about 10.6x FY2027 EPS of $3.71, so the cheap headline multiple is a boom-year artifact. | Medium-high |
| Technical trend | The price held above the 20-day moving average of $38.05, the 50-day near $37.47, and the 200-day near $31.33 on July 31, 2026, but 14-day ADX near 8.78 showed a weak trend and 14-day stochastic near 85 flagged an overbought short-term reading, with RSI near 56.8 neutral. | Medium |
| Risk level | Risk is high because a Hormuz reopening, spot TCE rates that approach cash breakevens, oil trade route changes, sanctions, war risk, vessel values, interest expense, newbuilding commitments, related-party transactions, and dividend cuts can all change per-share value quickly, as the roughly 18% three-day drawdown from the June 2026 peak showed. | High |
| AI confidence | The evidence is strong for historical facts and arithmetic, but AI cannot reliably forecast freight rates, geopolitical disruptions, vessel supply, or the timing of the next tanker-cycle reversal, so forward ranges carry materially more uncertainty. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | Investment certainty is lower than data confidence because Frontline is a capital-intensive and cyclical owner whose dividend and earnings can fall even when the fleet remains intact and the balance sheet stays solid. | Low-medium |
FRO AI stock forecast
The FRO AI stock forecast uses a three-year scenario model around the $39.37 cutoff price. With TTM EPS of $4.06, annual EPS growth assumptions of +15%, -2%, and -35%, and terminal P/E multiples of 8x, 6x, and 4x, the financial-rigor tool produced model outputs of $49.4, $22.9, and $4.5. The page widens those outputs into ranges because tanker rates, Hormuz reopening timing, and the exit multiple are uncertain. For context, the 12-month analyst consensus target of $44.25 prices the 2026 boom year, while consensus FY2026E EPS is $7.69 and FY2027E EPS is $3.71, so the base case below assumes rates normalize after the boom.
$45 to $60
More likely if the Strait of Hormuz stays closed or constrained, Middle East disruptions persist, ton-mile demand keeps rising, Q2-Q4 2026 TCEs hold near contracted levels such as the $181,700 VLCC rate, the fleet renewal stays self-funding, net debt keeps falling, and investors keep applying a peak-cycle multiple, in line with the BTIG $55 target.
$20 to $28
More likely if a credible US-Iran deal reopens the Strait of Hormuz, tanker rates normalize toward historical mid-cycle levels, FY2027 EPS declines toward the consensus estimate of $3.71, debt service stays manageable, and the market applies a 6x to 7x multiple to normalized earnings.
$5 to $10
More likely if crude tanker supply grows faster than cargo demand, oil trade routes shorten, rates fall toward or below cash breakevens near $24,300 a day, vessel values fall, refinancing becomes costly, dividends are cut, or newbuilding commitments force additional equity.
FRO AI technical analysis
FRO AI technical analysis as of the August 3, 2026 data cutoff uses the July 31, 2026 close and the Barchart and StockAnalysis snapshots. The price of $39.37 held above the 20-day, 50-day, and 200-day simple moving averages of $38.05, $37.47, and $31.33, but the trend signal was weak, with 14-day ADX near 8.78 and a 14-day stochastic near 85 in overbought territory. The stock corrected about 18% from the June 24 peak of $43.10 to $35.52 by June 26 and then recovered through July, so this page is a static snapshot and the levels should be confirmed in a live chart before acting.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $39.37 | NYSE close on July 31, 2026, from the StockAnalysis real-time quote, with an after-hours print of $39.60. |
| 5-day moving average | $38.99 | Barchart reported the 5-day moving average near $38.99 on July 31, 2026, just below the close, a minor near-term reference. |
| 20-day moving average | $38.05 | Barchart and StockAnalysis both reported the 20-day moving average near $38.05, the first pullback support if the stock stalls. |
| Near support | $37.40 to $38.10 | The 50-day moving average near $37.47 and the 20-day near $38.05 form a support band around the July lows. |
| Deeper support | $34.50 to $35.60 | The early July and late June lows near $34.70 to $35.52 mark the last major consolidation zone. A sustained break would weaken the recovery structure. |
| 50-day moving average | $37.47 | Barchart and StockAnalysis both reported the 50-day moving average near $37.47 on July 31, 2026, above the 200-day and consistent with a rising medium-term trend. |
| 200-day moving average | $31.33 | Barchart and StockAnalysis both reported the 200-day trend line near $31.33, well below price, confirming the longer-term uptrend is intact. |
| 100-day moving average | $36.39 | Barchart reported the 100-day moving average near $36.39 on July 31, 2026, below the 20-day and 50-day averages and above the 200-day. |
| Near resistance | $39.80 to $40.90 | The July 31 intraday high of $39.79 and the June closing area near $40.72 form the first overhead resistance zone. |
| Higher resistance | $42.90 to $43.10 | The June 24, 2026 intraday peak of $43.10 and the June 23 close of $42.88 are the 52-week high reference, reported by StockAnalysis. |
| Momentum | RSI near 57, stochastic overbought, ADX near 9 | Barchart reported 14-day RSI near 56.80, a 14-day stochastic near 85 in overbought territory, and 14-day ADX near 8.78, which indicates a range-like recovery rather than a strong trending move. |
| Volume | About 2.0 million average shares | Barchart listed 20-day average volume near 2.04 million shares and StockAnalysis near 2.02 million, with the July 31 session at 1.62 million, useful for checking breakout quality. |
| Volatility | Elevated, ATR(14) near $1.42 | Barchart reported 14-day ATR near $1.42, about 3.6% of price, with 14-day historical volatility near 30% and 50-day near 46%, so position sizing should account for large daily swings in a tanker stock. |
| Invalidation | Sustained close below $37.40 | A decisive close below the 50-day moving average near $37.47 would weaken the short-term recovery; a close below $35.50 would turn the near-term structure bearish and prompt a fresh review of rates and balance sheet data. |
FRO AI trading strategy
The FRO AI trading strategy is a rules-based research framework, not personalized advice. It should be paired with live price and volume, a defined position size, an invalidation level, tanker-rate data, Hormuz and Middle East news, and the next company filing, which is the Q2 2026 report scheduled around August 28, 2026.
Watch for FRO to hold above the $38.05 20-day moving average and to reclaim the $39.80 to $40.90 resistance zone with expanding volume toward the $42.90 to $43.10 high, with the 200-day moving average near $31.33 still rising.
A failed attempt at the resistance zone followed by a close below the 50-day moving average near $37.47 invalidates the setup. Do not widen the risk limit because the dividend yield looks attractive in a cyclical.
If FRO pulls back toward the $35.50 to $38.10 support band without fresh geopolitical or balance-sheet damage, compare the price reaction with Q2 2026 results, spot TCE bookings, Hormuz headlines, and analyst estimate revisions before treating it as mean reversion.
Do not average down solely because the stock trades below a short moving average. A freight-rate decline can make a high dividend and low P/E look cheap for several quarters, so set a maximum loss rule before acting.
Track VLCC, Suezmax, and LR2 spot TCE rates against the cash breakevens near $24,300 a day, charter coverage percentages, utilization, vessel sales and purchases, newbuilding deliveries, debt facilities, net debt, dry-dock spending, dividend declarations, share count, oil demand, ton-miles, and the FY2027 consensus EPS path.
Reduce confidence if TCE rates approach cash breakevens, FY2027 EPS estimates keep falling, debt rises faster than recurring cash flow, newbuildings require additional equity, vessel values fall, or dividends rely on asset sales rather than operating cash flow.
Investment research summary
Frontline turns tanker capacity, crews, fuel, financing, and chartering skill into ocean transportation for crude oil and refined petroleum cargoes. Customers pay for available vessel capacity and completed voyages. The economic engine is daily TCE revenue minus voyage costs, ship operating expenses, depreciation, interest, dry-dock spending, and capital commitments.
The practical moat is a scaled fleet and commercial platform. Frontline can combine spot voyages with time charters, use market intelligence across vessel classes, access secured financing, and replace older ships with more efficient tonnage. The advantage is narrower than a brand or network effect because a strong fleet cannot prevent a global oversupply of ships.
The thesis fails if the Strait of Hormuz reopens, tanker supply grows faster than seaborne oil demand, freight rates normalize below cash breakeven, or geopolitical rerouting fades. Other failure paths include high interest expense, weak vessel values, dry-dock overruns, refinancing pressure, dividend cuts, environmental rules, sanctions, accidents, and related-party transactions that destroy per-share value. The June 2026 three-day drawdown of about 18% shows how quickly high earnings can reverse.
CEO Lars H. Barstad and CFO Inger M. Klemp run a structure in which Frontline Management handles commercial and operational execution while the board sets strategy. The company sold eight older VLCCs and two oldest Suezmax tankers, acquired nine latest-generation ECO VLCC newbuildings from Hemen affiliates with up to $737 million of financing, refinanced existing debt, fixed part of near-term revenue at record rates near $110,000 a day for two newbuildings, and paid a $1.55 per share dividend for Q1 2026. The central test is whether fleet renewal and charter choices create value after financing costs and cycle normalization.
Oil shipping benefits when supply chains become longer, more fragmented, or less efficient. The effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz removed roughly one-fifth of global seaborne oil exports and drove record rates in Q1 2026, while management cites energy security and diversified Asian sourcing as longer-term supports. Those trends can lift ton-miles, but the industry remains exposed to oil consumption, sanctions, war risk, canal access, and newbuilding supply, and analysts expect FY2027 earnings to normalize sharply.
At $39.37, the local audit produced 9.70x TTM EPS, 3.09x book value, 14.80x TTM free cash flow, and a 7.95% trailing dividend yield on TTM dividends of $3.13. Forward valuation is about 5.1x consensus FY2026 EPS of $7.69 but near 10.6x FY2027 EPS of $3.71, so the stock is cheap only against boom-year earnings. A margin of safety requires normalized cash flow and a view on the Hormuz reversion path, not just a low headline multiple.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| FRO price | $39.37 at the July 31, 2026 close, $39.60 after hours | StockAnalysis.com real-time quote | August 3, 2026 |
| Market capitalization | $8.76 billion, computed as $39.37 x 222,622,889 shares, matching the reported market cap | StockAnalysis.com statistics and SEC EDGAR Form 20-F | August 3, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding | 222,622,889 ordinary shares, unchanged since 2023 | Frontline FY2025 Form 20-F cover page | August 3, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 results | Revenue of $714.2 million, profit of $559.1 million or $2.51 per share, adjusted profit of $344.9 million or $1.55 per share, the strongest since the fourth quarter of 2004 | Frontline Q1 2026 results release | August 3, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 dividend | Cash dividend of $1.55 per share declared for the first quarter of 2026 | Frontline Q1 2026 results release | August 3, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 spot TCE rates | Average daily spot TCE of $103,500 for VLCCs, $72,400 for Suezmax, and $50,700 for LR2/Aframax in Q1 2026 | Frontline Q1 2026 results release | August 3, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 contracted TCEs and coverage | Q2 2026 contracted spot TCE of $181,700 per day for VLCCs at 82% coverage, $131,300 for Suezmax at 79%, and $125,000 for LR2/Aframax at 68%, against estimated cash breakevens of $24,300 for VLCC and Suezmax and $23,600 for LR2/Aframax | Frontline Q1 2026 results release | August 3, 2026 |
| Fleet renewal and financing | Delivered eight oldest ECO VLCCs with a $210.9 million gain, agreed to sell two oldest Suezmax tankers for $140.0 million, acquired nine ECO VLCC newbuildings from Hemen affiliates with up to $737.0 million of financing, and secured refinancing of up to $237.5 million plus $88.8 million of revolving capacity | Frontline Q1 2026 results release | August 3, 2026 |
| FY2025 results | Total revenues and other operating income of $1.971 billion, revenue of $1.965 billion, net operating income of $598.8 million, net income of $379.1 million, and EPS of $1.70 | Frontline FY2025 Form 20-F | August 3, 2026 |
| FY2025 balance sheet | Cash and cash equivalents of $251.3 million, marketable securities of $2.1 million, short-term debt of $320.5 million, long-term debt of $2,747.2 million, total debt of $3,067.7 million, and total equity of $2,510.9 million as of December 31, 2025 | Frontline FY2025 Form 20-F | August 3, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 balance sheet | Cash and cash equivalents of $470.76 million, short-term investments of $0.91 million, total debt of $2.63 billion, net debt of $2.16 billion or $9.70 per share, total assets of $5.67 billion, and book value of $2.84 billion or $12.76 per share as of March 31, 2026 | StockAnalysis.com balance sheet | August 3, 2026 |
| TTM income data | TTM revenue of $2.25 billion up 18.5%, operating income of $1.09 billion, and net income of $904.91 million or $4.06 per share | StockAnalysis.com financials and statistics | August 3, 2026 |
| TTM cash flow | Operating cash flow of $927.03 million, capital expenditures of $335.11 million, and free cash flow of $591.92 million or $2.66 per share on the statistics page, versus TTM operating cash flow of $1.01 billion and free cash flow of $663.6 million on the financials page, a presentation variance across data providers | StockAnalysis.com statistics and cash flow statement | August 3, 2026 |
| Valuation ratios | 9.69x TTM PE, 5.92x forward PE, 3.89x sales, 3.08x book value, 14.81x free cash flow, EV/EBITDA of 10.02, ROE of 35.01%, and ROIC of 16.77% | StockAnalysis.com statistics | August 3, 2026 |
| Dividend history | TTM dividends of $3.13 per share from $1.55 (June 12, 2026), $1.03 (March 12, 2026), $0.19 (December 12, 2025), and $0.36 (September 12, 2025), implying a 7.95% yield at $39.37; the StockAnalysis statistics page lists a lagged annual dividend of $1.76 that excludes the June 2026 payment | StockAnalysis.com dividend history | August 3, 2026 |
| Analyst consensus | Buy rating with an average price target of $44.25 across four analysts, low $37, median $42.5, and high $55 | StockAnalysis.com forecast | July 29, 2026 |
| Recent analyst actions | BTIG raised its target to $55 on July 29, 2026, Evercore ISI maintained Hold at $37 on July 22, Danske Bank downgraded to Hold at $39 on May 26, Pareto downgraded to Hold at $40 on May 25, and Kepler Capital maintained Sell at $19 on May 19 | StockAnalysis.com forecast | July 29, 2026 |
| Consensus financial forecast | FY2026 revenue of $2.43 billion with EPS of $7.69 and FY2027 revenue of $1.71 billion with EPS of $3.71, plus a FY2026 dividend estimate of $6.80 per share | StockAnalysis.com forecast | July 29, 2026 |
| Short interest | 7.12 million shares short, 4.97% of shares outstanding, 2.10 days to cover | StockAnalysis.com statistics short selling | August 3, 2026 |
| Hemen ownership | Hemen Holding Ltd beneficially owns 79,145,703 shares, or 35.6% of shares outstanding | Frontline FY2025 Form 20-F | August 3, 2026 |
| Fleet composition | 80 owned and operated vessels as of December 31, 2025, including 41 VLCCs, 21 Suezmax, and 18 LR2/Aframax tankers | Frontline FY2025 Form 20-F and StockAnalysis.com profile | August 3, 2026 |
| Technical snapshot | 5-day SMA near $38.99, 20-day SMA near $38.05, 50-day SMA near $37.47, 100-day SMA near $36.39, 200-day SMA near $31.33, 14-day RSI near 56.80, 14-day ADX near 8.78, 14-day stochastic near 85, and 14-day ATR near $1.42 | Barchart and StockAnalysis.com technical snapshots | August 3, 2026 |
| Price range | 52-week range of $18.26 to $43.10 with a 52-week gain of 110.09%, and a year-to-date gain of about 80% | StockAnalysis.com quote and statistics | August 3, 2026 |
| Financial-rigor verification | Market cap, valuation ratios, and three-scenario values were calculated locally with exact decimal arithmetic, confirming market cap at a 0.05% deviation and PE, PB, P/FCF, PS, and dividend yield consistent with the reported statistics | Pineify tools/financial_rigor.py local run | August 3, 2026 |
This FRO AI stock analysis page is an informational tool only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a guarantee of returns. Forecast ranges are scenarios based on public data available as of August 3, 2026 and can be wrong if freight rates, Hormuz or Middle East developments, oil demand, trade routes, vessel supply, financing, dividends, fleet execution, or market valuation change.
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