Bullish case
$68 to $74
More likely if Roku approvals progress, antitrust scrutiny stays manageable, the World Cup and Tubi keep boosting streaming engagement, Fox protects live sports and news economics, and the market values earnings near 14x.
Fox Corporation research snapshot
FOX AI Stock Analysis
FOX AI stock analysis currently reads Fox Corporation Class B as a profitable live news, sports, local TV, and ad-supported streaming business that is recovering from the June 15, 2026 Roku acquisition announcement and its post-deal selloff. The stock closed at $51.94 on July 31, 2026, and the verified market cap is about $21.82 billion using 420.19 million total shares from the March 31, 2026 Form 10-Q. Analyst upgrades, Citi naming Fox a top pick, and record World Cup viewership have improved sentiment, while Roku approval and antitrust scrutiny, financing, and cable decline keep risk elevated. This FOX AI stock forecast is scenario-based, not a price promise, and should be used as an information tool rather than investment advice.
Current price
$51.94
Market cap
$21.82 billion verified market cap
AI score
63 / 100
Rating
Profitable live news, sports and streaming franchise with Roku deal upside, a recovering price, and approval and antitrust risk
Trend status
Recovering from the June post-deal low, above the 5-day and 10-day averages but below the 50-day and 200-day averages
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
Research quality check
- information Richness
- A-level information richness. Fox has current SEC filings, company earnings releases, segment disclosures, management materials, third-party financial and technical data, analyst price targets, and broad media coverage of the Roku transaction.
- bias Check
- The main AI research risk is over-weighting the visible Fox brands and the recovery rally while under-weighting Roku antitrust and approval risk, deal leverage, integration execution, cable subscriber decline, political advertising cyclicality, sports rights inflation, and Murdoch family voting control.
- ai Confidence
- High for the July 31, 2026 closing price, share count, market cap math, TTM and FY2025 financials, analyst price targets, and announced Roku deal terms. Medium for net debt because company filings and third-party snapshots use different dates. Medium-low for forward valuation because the Roku deal may close, change, or fail and Q4 FY2026 results are not yet reported.
- investment Certainty
- Medium-low. The core business produces cash and the stock is cheap on earnings, but investment certainty is limited by an event-driven acquisition, regulatory and antitrust headlines, secular pay-TV decline, event-driven advertising, sports rights cost, and family control.
Quick verdict table
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Fox owns scarce live news and sports assets, local stations, Tubi, entertainment brands, and may add Roku platform distribution if the transaction closes. | Medium-high |
| Moat | The moat comes from live appointment viewing, FOX News, sports rights, retransmission fees, advertiser reach, Tubi scale, and the proposed Roku distribution reach, but cable bundle erosion weakens legacy economics. | Medium |
| Management | Lachlan Murdoch is Executive Chair and CEO. Management has continued buybacks and dividends, while the Roku deal is the central capital allocation test that investors are debating. | Medium |
| Financial trend | FY2025 revenue reached $16.30 billion and net income reached $2.26 billion. TTM revenue is $16.20 billion and TTM net income is $1.71 billion, with Q3 FY2026 revenue of $3.99 billion. | High |
| Valuation | At $51.94, audited math shows about 13.6x TTM EPS, 10.4x forward earnings on FY2026 adjusted EPS of $5.01, 10.2x free cash flow per share, 1.99x book value, and a 1.08% dividend yield. | Medium-high |
| Technical trend | FOX has neutral-to-positive momentum with price above the 5-day and 10-day moving averages but below the 50-day and 200-day moving averages after its recovery from $44.08. | Medium |
| Risk level | Key risks are Roku approval and antitrust scrutiny, deal financing and leverage, integration execution, sports rights inflation, cable subscriber decline, advertising cyclicality, and voting control. | High |
| AI confidence | Descriptive data confidence is high, but forecast confidence is lower because the stock is now an event-driven deal story with an antitrust overhang. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | FOX looks like a cash-generative media value setup with recovering momentum and a major strategic option, not a high-certainty compounder. | Medium-low |
FOX AI stock forecast
FOX AI Stock Forecast Scenarios
The FOX AI stock forecast uses the $51.94 price reference, TTM EPS of about $3.82, and a three-year earnings multiple model. The audited model produced a bullish value near $71, a base value near $47, and a bearish value near $25 before dividends. These are scenario ranges, not guaranteed targets, and Q4 FY2026 results due August 6, 2026 plus Roku deal and antitrust developments can move the outcome.
Base case
$45 to $50
More likely if core cable and television cash flow offsets subscriber decline, Roku remains pending without major adverse terms, and FOX trades near 11x normalized earnings.
Bearish case
$23 to $28
More likely if regulators delay or block the Roku transaction, antitrust conditions get worse, the deal increases leverage without clear synergy proof, sports costs rise faster than revenue, or advertising and cable revenue weaken together.
FOX AI technical analysis
FOX AI Technical Analysis
FOX AI technical analysis uses market data available at the August 2, 2026 cutoff. FOX closed at $51.94 on July 31, 2026, up from the June 25 post-deal low of $44.08. StockAnalysis showed RSI near 54.37, a 5-day moving average near $51.89, a 50-day moving average near $52.39, and a 200-day moving average near $56.61. The 52-week range is $44.08 to $68.18.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $51.94 | July 31, 2026 close reported for Fox Corporation Class B. |
| Primary support | $49.40 to $49.50 | The late-July pullback area that held on July 23 to July 24, 2026. |
| Secondary support | $47.95 to $48.75 | The early-July low zone that held around the July 9 to July 10 sessions. |
| Deeper support | $44.08 | The 52-week and post-Roku-deal low printed on June 25, 2026. |
| 5-day moving average | $51.89 | Price is above the 5-day average, confirming short-term recovery momentum. |
| 10-day moving average | $51.17 | Price above the 10-day average keeps the near-term setup constructive. |
| 50-day moving average | $52.39 | A reclaim of the 50-day average would be the next short-term trend-repair signal. |
| 200-day moving average | $56.61 | The 200-day average is a major overhead trend reference for the recovery. |
| Near resistance | $52.73 to $52.78 | The July 29, 2026 high zone is the nearest overhead supply before the 50-day average. |
| Momentum | RSI near 54.37, price above short-term averages | Momentum is neutral-to-positive, so confirmation matters more than a single session. |
| Volume | 20-day average near 1.2 million shares | Volume spiked on Roku-deal headlines and World Cup sessions, then normalized in late July. |
| Volatility | Deal-sensitive media stock with beta near 0.55 | FOX can reprice around Roku filings, antitrust and regulatory headlines, sports rights news, affiliate fee negotiations, and advertising trends. |
| Invalidation | Close below $47.95 | A decisive close below the early-July support zone would weaken the recovery setup and reopen the path toward the June low. |
FOX AI trading strategy
FOX AI Trading Strategy Framework
The FOX AI trading strategy below is a rules-based research framework, not personal advice. It connects price action with Roku deal milestones, antitrust and regulatory headlines, Tubi and World Cup streaming trends, sports and news economics, affiliate fees, advertising demand, leverage, and capital return.
Trend-following setup
Watch for FOX to reclaim the 50-day moving average near $52.39 and then challenge the 200-day moving average near $56.61 while Roku filings, financing terms, and antitrust and regulatory progress remain constructive.
A failed reclaim, a close below $47.95, adverse antitrust or deal financing headlines, or weaker advertising demand should reduce trend-following confidence.
Mean-reversion setup
If FOX pulls toward the $49.40 to $50 area or the early-July zone without a negative deal update, compare the entry price with normalized earnings power, the FY2026 adjusted EPS forecast near $5.01, and the audited base scenario near $47.
Do not treat the low earnings multiple as automatically cheap if leverage rises, approval or antitrust risk worsens, cable decline accelerates, or Roku synergy assumptions look aggressive.
Fundamental monitor
Track Q4 FY2026 results on August 6, 2026, Cable Network Programming EBITDA, Television advertising, Tubi and streaming engagement, sports rights costs, buyback pace, dividend policy, Roku S-4 filings and proxy materials, shareholder votes, and regulatory and antitrust approvals.
Position sizing should reflect that FOX is a controlled media company with event risk, not a simple recurring-revenue software business.
Investment research summary
Four-master Research Compression
Business essence
Customers pay Fox for live news, live sports, local TV reach, entertainment programming, digital advertising, and streaming distribution. Distributors pay because Fox content helps retain subscribers, while advertisers pay for scale and appointment-viewing audiences, and a record World Cup audience drove new streaming sign-ups in 2026.
Moat
Fox has strong brands, news habit, sports rights, local broadcast stations, retransmission relationships, Tubi reach, and a focused content portfolio. The moat narrows if cable subscribers keep falling, sports rights costs rise, antitrust pressure slows the Roku combination, or viewers shift faster than Fox can monetize streaming.
Munger risk inversion
The thesis fails if Roku adds debt and dilution without enough synergies, if regulators or antitrust concerns block or delay the deal, if Fox loses pricing power with distributors, if the World Cup streaming bump does not retain users, or if political, legal, and advertiser pressure damages brand economics.
Management
Lachlan Murdoch is Executive Chair and CEO, with John Nallen as President and COO and Steve Tomsic as CFO. Management has emphasized buybacks and dividends, and the proposed Roku acquisition is now the clearest test of capital allocation discipline, with Citi expecting about $1 billion in annual EBITDA synergy.
Industry trend
Fox sits at the collision point between declining linear TV and growing connected TV. Live sports and news remain valuable, the 2026 World Cup showed streaming pull, and Tubi plus the proposed Roku combination give Fox a path toward more direct streaming distribution.
Valuation and margin of safety
At about 13.6x TTM EPS, 10.4x forward earnings, and 10.2x free cash flow, FOX screens inexpensive versus many media and technology peers. Margin of safety depends on whether the market is correctly discounting cable decline, Roku integration and financing risk, and antitrust uncertainty.
Source-backed data
FOX Data Table
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| FOX Class B closing price | $51.94 | StockAnalysis FOX overview, July 31, 2026 close | August 2, 2026 |
| Verified market cap | $21.82 billion | Pineify financial_rigor.py check using $51.94 and 420.19 million total shares | August 2, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding | 199,481,198 Class A and 220,705,117 Class B as of March 31, 2026 | Fox Corporation Form 10-Q for quarter ended March 31, 2026 | August 2, 2026 |
| TTM revenue | $16.20 billion | StockAnalysis FOX financials, TTM through March 31, 2026 | August 2, 2026 |
| TTM net income | $1.71 billion | StockAnalysis FOX financials, TTM through March 31, 2026 | August 2, 2026 |
| FY2025 revenue | $16.30 billion | Fox FY2025 earnings release | August 2, 2026 |
| Q3 FY2026 revenue and adjusted EBITDA | $3.99 billion revenue and $954 million adjusted EBITDA | Fox Q3 FY2026 earnings release | August 2, 2026 |
| Cash and debt | $3.60 billion cash and investments and $6.61 billion long-term debt as of March 31, 2026 | Fox Form 10-Q balance sheet and StockAnalysis balance sheet | August 2, 2026 |
| Roku acquisition terms | $160 per Roku share in cash and stock, about $22 billion enterprise value, $12 billion committed bridge financing, expected close in first half of calendar year 2027 | Fox Corporation press release dated June 15, 2026 | August 2, 2026 |
| Technical indicators | RSI 54.37, 50-day MA $52.39, 200-day MA $56.61, 52-week range $44.08 to $68.18 | StockAnalysis FOX statistics | August 2, 2026 |
Frequently Asked Questions
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This page is an informational research tool. It is not investment advice, a recommendation, or a promise of return. Forecast ranges are scenarios based on available data as of the cutoff date and can be wrong if earnings, valuation, regulation, Roku transaction terms, antitrust outcomes, market conditions, or company execution change.
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