Bullish case
$62 to $68
More likely if Roku approvals progress, leverage remains manageable, Tubi and Roku improve connected-TV growth, Fox protects live sports and news economics, and the market values earnings near 14x.
Fox Corporation research snapshot
FOX AI Stock Analysis
FOX AI stock analysis currently reads Fox Corporation Class B as a profitable live news, sports, local TV, and ad-supported streaming business whose near-term thesis changed after the June 15, 2026 Roku acquisition announcement. The stock closed at $49.20 on July 7, 2026, and the audited market cap check produced about $21.25 billion using 432.0 million diluted shares. This FOX AI stock forecast is scenario-based, not a price promise, and should be used as an information tool rather than investment advice.
Current price
$49.20
Market cap
$21.25 billion verified market cap
AI score
62 / 100
Rating
Profitable live news and sports franchise with Roku deal upside, cable decline risk, and deal execution uncertainty
Trend status
Mixed technical trend, below the 5-day and 200-day averages but above the 50-day average
Data cutoff (updated weekly)
July 8, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
Research quality check
- information Richness
- A-level information richness. Fox has current SEC filings, company earnings releases, segment disclosures, management materials, third-party financial data, technical indicators, and broad media coverage.
- bias Check
- The main AI research risk is over-weighting familiar Fox brands and under-weighting cable subscriber decline, political advertising cyclicality, sports rights inflation, Murdoch control, litigation, and the leverage and integration risk from the proposed Roku acquisition.
- ai Confidence
- High for FY2025 revenue, FY2025 net income, share count, price, segment revenue, and announced Roku deal terms. Medium for cash and net debt because company filings and third-party snapshots use different dates. Medium-low for forward valuation because the Roku deal may close, change, or fail.
- investment Certainty
- Medium-low. The core business produces cash, but investment certainty is limited by secular pay-TV decline, event-driven advertising, sports rights cost, family control, and a large pending acquisition.
Quick verdict table
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Fox owns scarce live news and sports assets, local stations, Tubi, entertainment brands, and soon may add Roku distribution if the transaction closes. | Medium-high |
| Moat | The moat comes from live appointment viewing, FOX News, sports rights, retransmission fees, advertiser reach, and Tubi scale, but cable bundle erosion weakens legacy economics. | Medium |
| Management | Lachlan Murdoch is Executive Chair and CEO. Management has returned capital through buybacks and dividends, while the Roku deal is now the central capital allocation test. | Medium |
| Financial trend | FY2025 revenue reached $16.30 billion and net income reached $2.29 billion. Q3 FY2026 revenue was $3.99 billion, with adjusted EBITDA of $954 million. | High |
| Valuation | At $49.20, audited math shows about 13.0x TTM EPS, 1.94x book value, 7.13x free cash flow per share, 1.30x sales, and a 1.14% dividend yield. | Medium-high |
| Technical trend | FOX has neutral RSI, positive MACD, price below the 5-day and 200-day moving averages, and price above the 50-day moving average. | Medium |
| Risk level | Key risks are Roku deal financing and approvals, integration execution, sports rights inflation, cable subscriber decline, advertising cyclicality, political and legal risk, and voting control. | High |
| AI confidence | Descriptive data confidence is high, but forecast confidence is lower because the stock is now partly an event-driven deal story. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | FOX looks like a cash-generative media value setup with a major strategic option, not a high-certainty compounder. | Medium-low |
FOX AI stock forecast
FOX AI Stock Forecast Scenarios
The FOX AI stock forecast uses the $49.20 price reference, TTM EPS of about $3.79, and a three-year earnings multiple model. The audited model produced a bullish value near $66.80, a base value near $49.70, and a bearish value near $26.60 before dividends. These are scenario ranges, not guaranteed targets.
Base case
$47 to $52
More likely if core cable and television cash flow offsets subscriber decline, Roku remains pending without major adverse terms, and FOX trades near 12x normalized earnings.
Bearish case
$25 to $30
More likely if the Roku deal increases leverage without clear synergy proof, regulators delay or block the transaction, sports costs rise faster than revenue, or advertising and cable revenue weaken together.
FOX AI technical analysis
FOX AI Technical Analysis
FOX AI technical analysis uses market data available at the July 8, 2026 cutoff. FOX closed at $49.20 on July 7, 2026. Investing.com showed RSI near 48.41, MACD near 0.59, a 5-day moving average near $49.95, a 50-day moving average near $47.90, and a 200-day moving average near $53.00. MarketWatch reported the stock was about 27.8% below its 52-week high of $68.18.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $49.20 | July 7, 2026 close reported for Fox Corporation Class B. |
| Primary support | $49.05 to $49.20 | ChartMill listed support near $49.05 to $49.18, and the July 7 close sits close to that area. |
| Secondary support | $47.90 | The 50-day moving average is a medium-term support and trend repair reference. |
| Deeper support | $44 to $46 | A lower risk zone to monitor if Roku deal concerns or advertising weakness drive another selloff. |
| 5-day moving average | $49.95 | Price below the 5-day average signals short-term softness after the early July pullback. |
| 50-day moving average | $47.90 | Price above the 50-day average keeps the medium-term setup from turning fully bearish. |
| 200-day moving average | $53.00 | A reclaim of the 200-day average would be an important trend repair signal. |
| Near resistance | $51.55 to $54.02 | ChartMill listed this as an important support area before the recent decline. It now works as a nearby resistance zone to watch. |
| Momentum | RSI near 48.41, MACD near 0.59 | Momentum is neutral with a positive MACD reading, so confirmation matters more than a single session. |
| Volume | About 1.6 million shares on July 7 | MarketWatch reported volume below the 50-day average, so the latest decline did not show unusually heavy confirmation. |
| Volatility | Deal-sensitive media stock | FOX can reprice around Roku filings, regulatory headlines, sports rights news, affiliate fee negotiations, and advertising trends. |
| Invalidation | Close below $47.90 | A decisive close below the 50-day moving average would weaken the current mean-reversion and trend-repair setup. |
FOX AI trading strategy
FOX AI Trading Strategy Framework
The FOX AI trading strategy below is a rules-based research framework, not personal advice. It connects price action with Roku deal milestones, Tubi growth, sports and news economics, affiliate fees, advertising demand, leverage, and capital return.
Trend-following setup
Watch for FOX to reclaim the $51.55 to $54.02 zone and the 200-day moving average near $53.00 while Roku filings, financing terms, and regulatory progress remain constructive.
A failed reclaim, a close below $47.90, adverse deal financing terms, or weaker advertising demand should reduce trend-following confidence.
Mean-reversion setup
If FOX holds the $47.90 to $49.20 area without a negative deal update, compare the entry price with normalized earnings power and the audited base scenario near $49.70.
Do not treat the low earnings multiple as automatically cheap if leverage rises, cable decline accelerates, or Roku synergy assumptions look aggressive.
Fundamental monitor
Track Q4 FY2026 results, Cable Network Programming EBITDA, Television advertising, Tubi growth, sports rights costs, buyback pace, dividend policy, Roku S-4 filings, shareholder votes, and regulatory approvals.
Position sizing should reflect that FOX is a controlled media company with event risk, not a simple recurring-revenue software business.
Investment research summary
Four-master Research Compression
Business essence
Customers pay Fox for live news, live sports, local TV reach, entertainment programming, digital advertising, and streaming distribution. Distributors pay because Fox content helps retain subscribers, while advertisers pay for scale and appointment-viewing audiences.
Moat
Fox has strong brands, news habit, sports rights, local broadcast stations, retransmission relationships, Tubi reach, and a focused content portfolio. The moat narrows if cable subscribers keep falling, sports rights costs rise, or viewers shift faster than Fox can monetize streaming.
Munger risk inversion
The thesis fails if Roku adds debt and dilution without enough synergies, if regulators block or delay the deal, if Fox loses pricing power with distributors, or if political, legal, and advertiser pressure damages brand economics.
Management
Lachlan Murdoch is Executive Chair and CEO, with John Nallen as President and COO and Steve Tomsic as CFO. Management has emphasized buybacks and dividends, but the proposed Roku acquisition is now the clearest test of capital allocation discipline.
Industry trend
Fox sits at the collision point between declining linear TV and growing connected TV. Live sports and news remain valuable, while Tubi and the proposed Roku combination give Fox a path toward more direct streaming distribution.
Valuation and margin of safety
At about 13.0x TTM EPS and 7.1x free cash flow per share, FOX screens inexpensive versus many media and technology peers. Margin of safety depends on whether the market is correctly discounting cable decline and Roku integration risk.
Source-backed data
FOX Data Table
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| FOX Class B closing price | $49.20 | MarketWatch daily market report | July 8, 2026 |
| Verified market cap | $21.25 billion | Pineify financial_rigor market cap check using $49.20 and 432.0 million diluted shares | July 8, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding | 200.7 million Class A and 224.7 million Class B as of Jan. 30, 2026 | Fox Corporation Form 10-Q for quarter ended Dec. 31, 2025 | July 8, 2026 |
| FY2025 revenue | $16.30 billion | Fox FY2025 earnings release and StockTitan financials cross-check | July 8, 2026 |
| FY2025 net income | $2.293 billion | Fox FY2025 earnings release | July 8, 2026 |
| Q3 FY2026 revenue | $3.994 billion | Fox Q3 FY2026 earnings release | July 8, 2026 |
| Q3 FY2026 adjusted EBITDA | $954 million | Fox Q3 FY2026 earnings release | July 8, 2026 |
| Cash and borrowings | $2.017 billion cash and $6.604 billion non-current borrowings as of Dec. 31, 2025 | Fox Form 10-Q balance sheet | July 8, 2026 |
| Roku acquisition terms | $160 per Roku share, about $22 billion enterprise value, expected close in first half of 2027 | Fox Corporation press release dated June 15, 2026 | July 8, 2026 |
| Technical indicators | RSI 48.411, MACD 0.590, 5-day MA $49.95, 50-day MA $47.90, 200-day MA $53.00 | Investing.com FOX technical analysis | July 8, 2026 |
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This page is an informational research tool. It is not investment advice, a recommendation, or a promise of return. Forecast ranges are scenarios based on available data as of the cutoff date and can be wrong if earnings, valuation, regulation, Roku transaction terms, market conditions, or company execution change.