Bullish case
$16.50 to $18.50
More likely if Ford Pro margins stay strong, hybrid demand holds, warranty costs decline, adjusted EBIT tracks or exceeds guidance, tariffs do not worsen, and the market values Ford near 13x adjusted earnings.
Ford Motor Company research snapshot
F AI Stock Analysis
F AI stock analysis currently reads Ford Motor Company as a scaled but cyclical automaker where Ford Pro, trucks, hybrids, service parts, and Ford Credit support the bull case, while EV losses, warranty costs, tariff exposure, high consolidated debt, and auto-cycle sensitivity limit certainty. The stock closed at $13.56 on July 7, 2026, and the audited market cap check produced about $54.03 billion using 3.9847 billion common and Class B shares outstanding. This F AI stock forecast is scenario-based, not a price promise, and should be used as an information tool rather than investment advice.
Current price
$13.56
Market cap
$54.03 billion verified market cap
AI score
61 / 100
Rating
Scaled auto franchise with Ford Pro strength, hybrid optionality, high leverage, EV losses, and cyclical margin risk
Trend status
Technically weak on daily indicators, with price below the 5-day, 50-day, and 200-day moving averages
Data cutoff (updated weekly)
July 8, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
Research quality check
- information Richness
- A-level information richness. Ford has a long public-company record, current SEC filings, company earnings releases, segment disclosures, third-party financial data, technical indicator data, and broad analyst coverage.
- bias Check
- The main AI bias risk is over-weighting the familiar Ford brand and under-weighting balance sheet complexity, Ford Credit leverage, EV segment losses, warranty costs, and tariff or labor shocks that can overwhelm a low headline valuation.
- ai Confidence
- High for price, market cap math, FY2025 revenue, FY2025 net loss, Q1 2026 revenue, Q1 2026 adjusted EBIT, share count, and daily moving averages because multiple current sources are available. Medium for forward earnings because tariff policy, EV investment, warranty accruals, credit losses, and auto demand can change quickly.
- investment Certainty
- Medium-low. The business is understandable and asset-rich, but investment certainty is lower than data confidence because autos are capital-intensive, cyclical, competitive, and exposed to financing conditions.
Quick verdict table
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Ford sells trucks, SUVs, vans, commercial fleet services, financing, parts, software-linked services, and Lincoln vehicles. Ford Pro is the highest-quality profit center, while Model e remains a drag. | Medium-high |
| Moat | Brand, dealer and service reach, truck franchise strength, fleet relationships, manufacturing scale, and Ford Credit create advantages, but switching costs are moderate and price competition is intense. | Medium |
| Management | CEO Jim Farley is steering Ford toward Pro, hybrids, software services, quality repair, and a more disciplined EV roadmap. Execution credibility depends on reducing recalls, warranty leakage, and Model e losses. | Medium |
| Financial trend | FY2025 revenue reached about $187.3 billion but net income to common was a loss of about $8.18 billion. Q1 2026 improved sharply with $43.3 billion revenue, $2.55 billion net income, and $3.49 billion adjusted EBIT. | High |
| Valuation | At $13.56, audited math shows 12.44x adjusted EPS, 1.44x book value, 0.29x sales, 15.41x adjusted free cash flow per share, and a 4.42% dividend yield. GAAP TTM earnings were negative. | Medium-high |
| Technical trend | Daily technical data is weak. Investing.com showed Strong Sell daily indicators, RSI near 43.15, MACD near negative 0.05, and price below the 5-day, 50-day, and 200-day moving averages. | Medium |
| Risk level | Key risks are tariffs, recession, credit losses, warranty costs, EV losses, labor costs, dealer inventory, pricing pressure, high consolidated debt, and aggressive competition from GM, Toyota, Tesla, Hyundai, and Chinese EV makers. | High |
| AI confidence | Descriptive data confidence is high because filings and third-party tables are current. Forecast confidence is medium because Ford earnings can swing with policy, credit, incentives, and residual values. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | F looks more like a cyclical value and income setup than a high-certainty compounder. The investment case needs evidence that Pro profits, hybrids, quality improvement, and capital discipline can offset EV and credit risk. | Medium-low |
F AI stock forecast
F AI Stock Forecast Scenarios
The F AI stock forecast uses the $13.56 price reference, adjusted EPS of $1.09, and a three-year earnings multiple model. The audited model produced a bearish value near $6.50, a base value near $11.90, and a bullish value near $17.90 before dividends. These are scenario ranges, not guaranteed targets.
Base case
$11.00 to $13.00
More likely if adjusted EPS grows slowly, Model e losses remain large but contained, Ford Credit stays stable, and valuation remains near a low double-digit multiple due to cyclicality.
Bearish case
$6.00 to $7.50
More likely if U.S. auto demand weakens, incentives rise, tariffs or labor costs pressure margins, credit losses increase, warranty costs persist, or EV losses force another reset.
F AI technical analysis
F AI Technical Analysis
F AI technical analysis uses market data available at the July 8, 2026 cutoff. F closed at $13.56 on July 7, 2026. Investing.com showed RSI near 43.15, MACD near -0.05, a 5-day moving average near $13.62, a 50-day moving average near $13.83, and a 200-day moving average near $14.79. ChartMill identified support from $13.28 to $13.79, lower support near $12.79 to $12.82 and $12.40 to $12.53, plus resistance from $14.21 to $14.41.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $13.56 | July 7, 2026 close from StockAnalysis quote data. |
| Primary support | $13.28 to $13.79 | ChartMill listed this as a support zone formed by multiple trend lines and moving averages. |
| Lower support | $12.79 to $12.82 | A secondary ChartMill support zone that matters if the current support band fails. |
| Deeper support | $12.40 to $12.53 | A lower support band to monitor if auto demand, credit, or tariff concerns return. |
| Short moving average | $13.62 | The 5-day moving average was slightly above the close, so near-term momentum was still soft. |
| 50-day resistance | $13.83 | The stock was below the 50-day moving average, making a reclaim of this level an early trend repair signal. |
| 200-day resistance | $14.79 | The 200-day average remains the larger trend hurdle for a sustained bullish setup. |
| Resistance zone | $14.21 to $14.41 | ChartMill identified this as the main nearby resistance zone. |
| Momentum | RSI near 43.15, MACD near -0.05 | Momentum is bearish but not deeply oversold, so follow-through matters more than a single bounce. |
| Volume | Confirm above recent average volume | A breakout over resistance has higher quality if accompanied by stronger volume and positive sector breadth. |
| Volatility | Auto-cycle and credit-sensitive | F can reprice quickly around earnings, tariff headlines, financing stress, recalls, and EV strategy updates. |
| Invalidation | Close below $12.40 | A decisive break below the deeper support zone would weaken the mean-reversion and trend-repair setup. |
F AI trading strategy
F AI Trading Strategy Framework
The F AI trading strategy below is a rules-based research framework, not personal advice. It connects price action with Ford Pro margin, Model e losses, hybrid demand, tariff cost, warranty trends, Ford Credit credit quality, cash flow, and dividend coverage.
Trend-following setup
Watch for F to reclaim the 50-day moving average near $13.83, clear the $14.21 to $14.41 resistance zone, and then work toward the 200-day moving average near $14.79 while Ford confirms strong Pro earnings and controlled EV losses.
A close below $13.28, weaker Ford Pro margin, tariff cost surprise, or higher credit losses should reduce trend-following confidence.
Mean-reversion setup
If F revisits the $12.40 to $12.82 support area without a deterioration in liquidity, dividend coverage, adjusted EBIT, or Ford Credit credit quality, compare the entry price with the audited base and bear scenarios.
Do not treat every low multiple as cheap if GAAP losses, warranty costs, or EV losses continue to consume economic value.
Fundamental monitor
Track Ford Blue and Ford Pro operating margin, Model e loss trajectory, hybrid mix, dealer inventory, incentive spending, warranty accruals, Ford Credit delinquencies, consolidated liquidity, and dividend policy.
Position sizing should reflect that Ford is a leveraged, cyclical manufacturer with financing exposure, not a predictable software-like compounder.
Investment research summary
Four-master Research Compression
Business essence
Customers pay Ford for transportation capacity, work trucks, commercial uptime, financing, parts, service, and brand identity. Fleet buyers pay when Ford lowers total operating cost and keeps vehicles on the road.
Moat
Ford has brand heritage, F-Series strength, dealers, parts availability, manufacturing scale, Ford Credit, and Pro fleet relationships. The moat narrows when competitors match truck capability, incentives rise, or EV and hybrid platforms shift faster than Ford can execute.
Munger risk inversion
The thesis fails if Ford Pro profit does not offset Model e losses, if warranty costs stay high, if tariffs or labor costs compress margins, if credit losses rise, or if consumers delay vehicle purchases as financing costs bite.
Management
Jim Farley is prioritizing commercial vehicles, hybrids, software services, lower warranty cost, and more disciplined EV spending. The key test is whether those actions produce durable returns after several years of mixed execution.
Industry trend
Autos benefit from fleet renewal, electrification, hybrids, software, and connected services, but the industry remains cyclical, capital-intensive, and exposed to commodity, labor, interest-rate, and policy shocks.
Valuation and margin of safety
At $13.56, F trades below one-third of sales and near 1.44x book value, but the margin of safety depends on adjusted earnings being durable rather than a temporary rebound from a weak FY2025 GAAP loss.
Source-backed data
F Data Table
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| F quote reference | $13.56 close on July 7, 2026 | StockAnalysis F statistics | July 8, 2026 |
| Market capitalization verification | $54.03 billion calculated from $13.56 x 3,984,692,630 common and Class B shares | Pineify financial_rigor.py, StockAnalysis, and Ford Q1 2026 10-Q | July 8, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding | 3,913,840,554 common shares and 70,852,076 Class B shares at April 27, 2026 | Ford Q1 2026 Form 10-Q | July 8, 2026 |
| FY2025 revenue and net loss | $187.3 billion revenue and about $8.2 billion net loss, cross-checked with StockAnalysis at $187.267 billion revenue and $8.182 billion net loss to common | Ford Q4 FY2025 results release and StockAnalysis financials | July 8, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 revenue and earnings | $43.3 billion revenue, $2.551 billion net income, $3.488 billion adjusted EBIT, and $0.66 adjusted EPS | Ford Q1 2026 Form 10-Q | July 8, 2026 |
| Cash and marketable securities | $30.49 billion consolidated cash and marketable securities, cross-checked with MarketBeat Q1 2026 summary | Ford Q1 2026 Form 10-Q and MarketBeat financials | July 8, 2026 |
| Valuation ratios | Audited math: 12.44x adjusted EPS, 1.44x book value, 0.29x sales, 15.41x adjusted FCF per share, and 4.42% dividend yield | Pineify financial_rigor.py using StockAnalysis and Ford filing inputs | July 8, 2026 |
| Daily technical indicators | Strong Sell indicators, RSI 43.154, MACD -0.050, MA5 $13.62, MA50 $13.83, MA200 $14.79 | Investing.com F technical analysis | July 8, 2026 |
| Support and resistance | Support $13.28 to $13.79, $12.79 to $12.82, $12.40 to $12.53, and resistance $14.21 to $14.41 | ChartMill F technical analysis | July 8, 2026 |
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This page is an informational research tool only and is not investment advice, a recommendation, or a promise of future performance. Forecast scenarios are based on available public data as of July 8, 2026, and may be wrong if Ford earnings, credit conditions, tariffs, competitive dynamics, or market multiples change.