Ford Motor Company research snapshot
F AI stock analysis currently reads Ford Motor Company as a scaled but cyclical automaker where Ford Pro, trucks, hybrids, service parts, and Ford Credit support the bull case, while EV losses, warranty costs, tariff exposure, high consolidated debt, and auto-cycle sensitivity limit certainty. The stock closed at $14.68 on July 31, 2026, and the audited market cap check produced about $58.54 billion using 3.99 billion shares outstanding. This F AI stock forecast is scenario-based, not a price promise, and should be used as an information tool rather than investment advice.
Current price
$14.68
Market cap
$58.54 billion verified market cap
AI score
63 / 100
Rating
Scaled auto franchise with Ford Pro strength, improved technical trend, still-high leverage, recurring EV losses, and cyclical margin risk
Trend status
Technically improved. Price sits above the 20-day, 50-day, and 200-day moving averages with a rising long-term trend
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Ford sells trucks, SUVs, vans, commercial fleet services, financing, parts, software-linked services, and Lincoln vehicles. Ford Pro is the highest-quality profit center, while Model e remains a drag. | Medium-high |
| Moat | Brand, dealer and service reach, truck franchise strength, fleet relationships, manufacturing scale, and Ford Credit create advantages, but switching costs are moderate and price competition is intense. | Medium |
| Management | CEO Jim Farley is steering Ford toward Pro, hybrids, software services, quality repair, and a more disciplined EV roadmap. Execution credibility depends on reducing recalls, warranty leakage, and Model e losses. | Medium |
| Financial trend | FY2025 revenue reached about $187.3 billion with a net loss to common of about $8.18 billion. Q1 2026 rebounded, but Q2 2026 swung back to a $1.33 billion GAAP loss with $48.3 billion revenue, and trailing twelve month earnings remain negative. | High |
| Valuation | At $14.68, audited math shows 8.11x consensus FY2026 adjusted EPS, 1.64x book value, 0.31x sales, 8.02x trailing free cash flow per share, and a 4.09% dividend yield. GAAP TTM earnings were negative. | Medium-high |
| Technical trend | Daily technicals improved sharply. ChartMill gives a 10/10 technical rating with a Strong Buy daily consensus, price above the 20-day, 50-day, and 200-day moving averages, RSI near 55, and MACD above zero. | Medium-high |
| Risk level | Key risks are tariffs, recession, credit losses, warranty costs, EV losses, labor costs, dealer inventory, pricing pressure, high consolidated debt, and aggressive competition from GM, Toyota, Tesla, Hyundai, and Chinese EV makers. | High |
| AI confidence | Descriptive data confidence is high because filings and third-party tables are current. Forecast confidence is medium because Ford earnings can swing with policy, credit, incentives, and residual values. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | F looks more like a cyclical value and income setup than a high-certainty compounder. The investment case needs evidence that Pro profits, hybrids, quality improvement, and capital discipline can offset EV and credit risk. | Medium-low |
F AI stock forecast
The F AI stock forecast uses the $14.68 price reference, consensus FY2026 adjusted EPS of $1.81, and a three-year earnings multiple model. The audited model produced a bearish value near $7.30, a base value near $16.30, and a bullish value near $22.80 before dividends. These are scenario ranges, not guaranteed targets.
$20.00 to $24.00
More likely if Ford Pro margins stay strong, hybrid demand holds, warranty costs decline, adjusted EBIT tracks or exceeds consensus, tariffs do not worsen, and the market re-rates Ford toward a low double-digit multiple.
$15.00 to $18.00
More likely if adjusted EPS grows slowly, Model e losses remain large but contained, Ford Credit stays stable, and valuation holds near a mid-single-digit to low double-digit multiple due to cyclicality.
$6.50 to $8.50
More likely if U.S. auto demand weakens, incentives rise, tariffs or labor costs pressure margins, credit losses increase, warranty costs persist, or EV losses force another reset.
F AI technical analysis
F AI technical analysis uses market data available at the August 2, 2026 cutoff. F closed at $14.68 on July 31, 2026. ChartMill assigns a 10/10 technical rating with a Strong Buy daily consensus, a rising long-term and short-term trend, RSI near 55.22, MACD above zero near 0.10, and price above the SMA20 at $14.23, SMA50 at $14.53, and SMA200 at $13.34. ChartMill identifies support from $13.93 to $14.27, plus lower support near $13.35, $12.10, and $11.41, and resistance at $14.69 and $15.29.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $14.68 | July 31, 2026 close from StockAnalysis quote data. |
| Primary support | $13.93 to $14.27 | ChartMill lists this as a support zone formed by multiple trend lines and moving averages. |
| Secondary support | $13.35 | A ChartMill support level that matters if the current support band fails. |
| Weekly trend support | $12.10 | Support from a weekly time frame trend line below the main trading range. |
| Deeper support | $11.41 | A weekly horizontal support level near the lower part of the 52 week range. |
| Short moving average | $14.89 | The 5-day moving average is above the close, so very short term momentum is neutral to firm. |
| 20-day moving average | $14.23 | Price holds above the rising SMA20, which supports the near term trend. |
| 50-day moving average | $14.53 | Price holds above the rising SMA50; a loss of this level would weaken the trend signal. |
| 200-day moving average | $13.34 | Price holds above the rising SMA200, the key long term trend line. |
| Resistance zone | $14.69 | A horizontal resistance level from the weekly time frame that has capped the recent rally. |
| Upper resistance | $15.29 | A daily horizontal resistance level that would open the way toward the $16 area. |
| Momentum | RSI near 55.22, MACD near 0.10 | Momentum is constructive but not stretched, so follow-through matters more than a single move. |
| Volume | Confirm above recent average volume | A breakout over resistance has higher quality if accompanied by stronger volume and positive sector breadth. |
| Volatility | ATR near 3.26% | F can reprice quickly around earnings, tariff headlines, financing stress, recalls, and EV strategy updates. |
| Invalidation | Close below $13.35 | A decisive break below the secondary support level would weaken the improved trend setup. |
F AI trading strategy
The F AI trading strategy below is a rules-based research framework, not personal advice. It connects price action with Ford Pro margin, Model e losses, hybrid demand, tariff cost, warranty trends, Ford Credit credit quality, cash flow, and dividend coverage.
Watch for F to hold above the 50-day moving average near $14.53 and the 200-day moving average near $13.34, then clear resistance near $14.69 and $15.29 while Ford confirms strong Pro earnings and controlled EV losses.
A close below $13.35, weaker Ford Pro margin, tariff cost surprise, or higher credit losses should reduce trend-following confidence.
If F revisits the $13.35 to $14.27 support area without a deterioration in liquidity, dividend coverage, adjusted EBIT, or Ford Credit credit quality, compare the entry price with the audited base and bear scenarios.
Do not treat every low multiple as cheap if GAAP losses, warranty costs, or EV losses continue to consume economic value.
Track Ford Blue and Ford Pro operating margin, Model e loss trajectory, hybrid mix, dealer inventory, incentive spending, warranty accruals, Ford Credit delinquencies, consolidated liquidity, and dividend policy.
Position sizing should reflect that Ford is a leveraged, cyclical manufacturer with financing exposure, not a predictable software-like compounder.
Investment research summary
Customers pay Ford for transportation capacity, work trucks, commercial uptime, financing, parts, service, and brand identity. Fleet buyers pay when Ford lowers total operating cost and keeps vehicles on the road.
Ford has brand heritage, F-Series strength, dealers, parts availability, manufacturing scale, Ford Credit, and Pro fleet relationships. The moat narrows when competitors match truck capability, incentives rise, or EV and hybrid platforms shift faster than Ford can execute.
The thesis fails if Ford Pro profit does not offset Model e losses, if warranty costs stay high, if tariffs or labor costs compress margins, if credit losses rise, or if consumers delay vehicle purchases as financing costs bite.
Jim Farley is prioritizing commercial vehicles, hybrids, software services, lower warranty cost, and more disciplined EV spending. The key test is whether those actions produce durable returns after several years of mixed execution.
Autos benefit from fleet renewal, electrification, hybrids, software, and connected services, but the industry remains cyclical, capital-intensive, and exposed to commodity, labor, interest-rate, and policy shocks.
At $14.68, F trades near one-third of sales and 1.64x book value with an 8.11x forward multiple, but the margin of safety depends on adjusted earnings being durable rather than a rebound from weak GAAP results.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| F quote reference | $14.68 close on July 31, 2026 | StockAnalysis F statistics | August 2, 2026 |
| Market capitalization verification | $58.54 billion reported, and about $58.57 billion calculated from $14.68 x 3.99 billion shares (0.06% deviation) | Pineify financial_rigor.py and StockAnalysis | August 2, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding | 3.99 billion shares outstanding, including a 3.92 billion current share class | StockAnalysis F statistics | August 2, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 revenue and net loss | $48.296 billion revenue and $1.327 billion GAAP net loss, with EPS of -$0.33 | StockAnalysis quarterly financials and MarketBeat | August 2, 2026 |
| FY2025 revenue and net loss | $187.267 billion revenue and about $8.18 billion net loss to common | StockAnalysis annual financials | August 2, 2026 |
| TTM revenue and net loss | $187.973 billion revenue and about $7.40 billion net loss over the twelve months ended June 2026 | StockAnalysis TTM financials | August 2, 2026 |
| Cash and debt | About $18.6 billion cash and equivalents with roughly $161 billion total debt reported for Q2 2026, and a net cash position near -$141 billion | MarketBeat and StockAnalysis | August 2, 2026 |
| Valuation ratios | Audited math: 8.11x consensus FY2026 adjusted EPS, 1.64x book value, 0.31x sales, 8.02x trailing FCF per share, and 4.09% dividend yield | Pineify financial_rigor.py using StockAnalysis inputs | August 2, 2026 |
| Analyst consensus | Hold rating from 22 analysts with an average price target of $15.78, median $15.46, low $11, high $20 | StockAnalysis F forecast | July 31, 2026 |
| Daily technical indicators | ChartMill technical rating 10/10, Strong Buy daily consensus, RSI 55.22, MACD 0.10, SMA50 $14.53, SMA200 $13.34 | ChartMill F technical analysis | July 31, 2026 |
| Support and resistance | Support $13.93 to $14.27, $13.35, $12.10, $11.41; resistance $14.69 and $15.29 | ChartMill F technical analysis | July 31, 2026 |
This page is an informational research tool only and is not investment advice, a recommendation, or a promise of future performance. Forecast scenarios are based on available public data as of August 2, 2026, and may be wrong if Ford earnings, credit conditions, tariffs, competitive dynamics, or market multiples change.
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