Bullish case
$650 to $735
More likely if AI datacenter and optical networking programs keep growing, the August 17, 2026 report confirms guidance, operating margin holds, and the capacity ramp converts into cash flow.
Fabrinet research snapshot
FN AI Stock Analysis
FN AI stock analysis sees Fabrinet as a high-quality manufacturing partner for complex optical communications, AI datacenter networking, automotive, industrial, and medical products. At the August 2, 2026 cutoff, the July 31 close was $435.41 and market capitalization was about $15.60 billion, roughly 42% below the 52-week high of $748.89. Revenue and operating leverage are still expanding, but the stock now trades below its 50-day and 200-day moving averages, TTM free cash flow is compressed by a capacity ramp, and the next earnings report is scheduled for August 17, 2026. This is scenario-based research, not a certain price prediction or investment advice.
Current price
$435.41
Market cap
$15.60 billion
AI score
68 / 100
Rating
Profitable optical manufacturer correcting from a sharp advance
Trend status
Below key moving averages with weak momentum
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
Research quality check
- information Richness
- A-level information richness. Fabrinet has a long public filing history, recent earnings releases, broad financial-data coverage, visible analyst coverage, and comparable peers in optical manufacturing.
- bias Check
- The main AI bias risk is extrapolating AI datacenter and optical demand too far in either direction. Filed results support strong growth, but customer concentration, the capex ramp, inventory, pricing, and recent analyst downgrades can all change the picture.
- ai Confidence
- High data confidence
- investment Certainty
- Medium. Financial evidence is strong, while the price paid, cash conversion during the capacity ramp, and durability of above-cycle optical demand remain the central uncertainties.
Quick verdict table
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Fabrinet provides high-complexity optical, electro-mechanical, and electronic manufacturing services to OEM customers that value yield, precision, and supply-chain execution. | High |
| Moat | Its moat is execution know-how, customer qualification, advanced optical packaging capability, and a Thailand-centered manufacturing footprint rather than a consumer brand. | Medium-high |
| Management | CEO Seamus Grady has overseen consistent growth, cash accumulation, and share repurchases, but converting heavy capacity spending into cash flow without losing execution discipline is the current test. | Medium-high |
| Financial trend | TTM revenue reached $4.235 billion, up 29.8% year over year, and operating margin reached 9.86%, but TTM free cash flow fell to $45.8 million during the capex ramp. | High |
| Valuation | The verified TTM PE is about 37.4x and P/FCF is about 340x. The multiple is lower than in July but still premium, and it depends on continued growth and better cash conversion. | High |
| Technical trend | The stock closed at $435.41 on July 31, 2026, below the 50-day moving average of $560.64 and the 200-day moving average of $530.06, with RSI at 37.34. Confirm with a live chart. | Medium |
| Risk level | Risk is high because a concentrated customer base, optical cycle reversal, the capex-heavy cash conversion drag, Thai baht moves, supply-chain disruption, and a premium multiple can amplify downside. | High |
| AI confidence | High for filed financial data and calculation checks. Lower for customer demand duration, competitive response, and price-path forecasts. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | Medium. The business quality is clearer than the margin of safety at the current valuation. | Medium |
FN AI stock forecast
FN AI Stock Forecast Scenarios
The FN AI stock forecast uses three-year valuation scenarios built with the financial_rigor.py model around the $435.41 July 31 close. The model produced about $732 in the bullish case, $459 in the base case, and $191 in the bearish case. These scenarios are not price targets or promises.
Base case
$410 to $460
More likely if EPS compounds at a mid-to-high teens rate and the valuation moderates toward a 24x earnings multiple as growth normalizes.
Bearish case
$190 to $230
More likely if optical demand normalizes, a major customer changes supplier or product mix, the capex ramp keeps free cash flow weak, margins compress, or the premium multiple contracts.
FN AI technical analysis
FN AI Technical Analysis
FN AI technical analysis starts from the $435.41 July 31, 2026 close. This static page does not request live market data, so every level and trade trigger must be confirmed in a current chart before use.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $435.41 | Public quote snapshot at the July 31, 2026 close, about 42% below the 52-week high of $748.89. |
| Near support | $430 to $435 | The July 31 close and the day low of $432.70 form the immediate monitoring zone. Confirm on a live chart. |
| Major support | $400 | A psychological round-number zone below the recent quote range where buyers often look for a turn. |
| Near resistance | $470 to $500 | The July 31 intraday high of $467.98 and the round-number zone above it where a rebound would need volume confirmation. |
| 200-day moving average | $530.06 | StockAnalysis statistics on August 2, 2026 showed price below the 200-day moving average, a longer-trend caution signal. |
| 50-day moving average | $560.64 | Price below the 50-day moving average means short-term trend momentum stays weak until it is reclaimed. |
| Momentum | Weak, RSI 37.34 | Relative strength near the lower end of the neutral range supports the correction view and needs to reset before a trend attempt. |
| Volume | Slightly elevated | July 31 volume of 885,433 was above the 787,157 twenty-day average; watch for expansion on any reclaim attempt. |
| Volatility | Elevated around earnings and AI networking news | FN can move sharply on the August 17, 2026 report, customer demand, optical component supply, and broader AI infrastructure sentiment. |
| Invalidation | Sustained close below $400 with weaker fundamentals | A loss of the $400 zone paired with slowing orders or margin pressure would weaken the correction thesis and open the lower 52-week range. |
FN AI trading strategy
FN AI Trading Strategy Framework
The FN AI trading strategy is a research framework, not personal advice. Pair it with current quotes, the August 17, 2026 earnings report, position sizing, and a predefined loss limit.
Trend-following setup
Wait for FN to reclaim and hold above the 200-day moving average near $530 with expanding volume and a live-chart trend confirmation.
Invalidate if the reclaim fails, price falls back below $400, or the next report weakens the demand and margin thesis.
Mean-reversion setup
If FN stabilizes in the $430 to $435 zone or tests the $400 round number, compare price action with fresh orders, inventory, margins, and free cash flow before considering a rebound.
Do not average down without a fixed maximum loss and a check that the fundamental thesis has not deteriorated.
Fundamental monitor
Track datacom and datacenter interconnect revenue, customer concentration, gross margin, operating margin, inventory, operating cash flow, capital expenditures, free cash flow, and the net cash position.
Reduce confidence when price strength is not matched by earnings quality, cash conversion, or customer-program evidence.
Investment research summary
Four-master Research Compression
Business essence
Fabrinet earns by solving difficult manufacturing and supply-chain work for OEMs that need advanced optical packaging, precision assembly, testing, and reliable delivery into AI, telecom, automotive, and medical end markets.
Moat
Customer qualification, process yields, engineering integration, optical manufacturing experience, and a scaled Thailand footprint create switching friction, though the business remains tied to customer programs.
Munger risk inversion
The thesis can fail if AI and datacom demand normalizes, a major customer changes supplier or product mix, inventory builds, margins compress, the capex ramp keeps free cash flow depressed, or currency and supply-chain costs rise.
Management
Seamus Grady and the operating team have delivered growth and retained a net cash balance sheet. The next test is converting heavy capacity spending into cash flow without losing execution discipline.
Industry trend
AI data centers and faster optical interconnects are long-term demand drivers, but the optical hardware chain is cyclical, capital-intensive right now, and exposed to concentrated customer capital-spending decisions.
Valuation and margin of safety
At the verified $435.41 quote, the model calculates 37.4x TTM EPS and about 340x TTM FCF. The multiple is lower than in July but still premium, and it depends on continued growth and a recovery in cash conversion.
Source-backed data
FN Data Table
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| FN price | $435.41 at the July 31, 2026 close, after-hours $430.00 | StockAnalysis quote snapshot | August 2, 2026 |
| Market capitalization | $15.60 billion, verified as $435.41 x 35.83 million shares with 0.00% variance | financial_rigor.py market cap verification | August 2, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding | 35.83 million ordinary shares with a -0.53% one-year change as of August 2, 2026 | StockAnalysis statistics | August 2, 2026 |
| TTM revenue and net income | $4.235 billion revenue and $420.97 million net income for the twelve months ending March 27, 2026, cross-validated between Macrotrends and StockAnalysis with 0.00% variance | Macrotrends and StockAnalysis | August 2, 2026 |
| FY2025 revenue | $3.419 billion, cross-validated between Macrotrends and StockAnalysis with 0.00% variance | Macrotrends and StockAnalysis | August 2, 2026 |
| FY2025 net income | $332.53 million, cross-validated between Macrotrends and StockAnalysis with 0.07% variance | Macrotrends and StockAnalysis | August 2, 2026 |
| Q3 FY2026 results | $1.214 billion revenue, $125.2 million GAAP net income, and $3.45 GAAP diluted EPS, up from $871.8 million and $81.3 million a year earlier | Fabrinet Q3 FY2026 earnings release | August 2, 2026 |
| Q4 FY2026 guidance | Revenue of $1.25 billion to $1.29 billion and non-GAAP EPS of $3.72 to $3.87 for the quarter ending June 2026 | TheFly via StockAnalysis news | August 2, 2026 |
| Cash and short-term investments | $945.24 million cash and short-term investments with $4.43 million total debt at March 27, 2026 | StockAnalysis balance sheet | August 2, 2026 |
| Valuation checks | 37.41x PE, 6.77x PB, 18.10% ROE, 340.16x P/FCF, and 0.00% dividend yield from financial_rigor.py | financial_rigor.py valuation verification | August 2, 2026 |
| Moving averages and momentum | 50-day moving average $560.64, 200-day moving average $530.06, RSI 37.34, and beta 1.20 | StockAnalysis statistics | August 2, 2026 |
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This FN AI stock analysis page is an informational tool only. It is not investment advice, a recommendation, or a promise of future returns. Forecast scenarios are based on available data as of August 2, 2026, may be incomplete, and can be wrong if new filings, the August 17, 2026 report, market prices, customer programs, supply-chain events, currency moves, or macro conditions change.
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