Coherent Corp. research snapshot
COHR AI stock analysis reads Coherent as a photonics and compound semiconductor company riding strong AI datacenter optical demand. Q3 fiscal 2026 revenue grew 20.5% year over year, Datacenter and Communications revenue grew about 41% year over year, margins kept expanding, and Q4 guidance points to $1.91 billion to $2.05 billion of revenue. The stock still fell hard from its June 2026 high of about $440 as the optical trade rotated and an AI investor exited, and the company now runs negative trailing free cash flow near minus $538 million because of heavy capacity spending. At the August 2, 2026 data cutoff, the latest verified close used here was $262.89 on July 31, 2026, market capitalization was about $51.43 billion, and the main question was whether AI optical demand and margin expansion can offset valuation, dilution, capacity risk, customer concentration, and a reset in sentiment. This page is informational research and not investment advice.
Current price
$262.89
Market cap
$51.43 billion
AI score
62 / 100
Rating
AI optical demand leader with strong growth, but a post-rally drawdown and negative free cash flow
Trend status
Below the 50-day and 100-day averages after a sharp July drawdown, holding just above the 200-day average
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Coherent sells photonic components, optical transceivers, lasers, engineered materials, and compound semiconductor products into datacenter, communications, and industrial markets. | High |
| Moat | The moat is strongest in vertical integration across materials, lasers, detectors, ICs, passive optics, and transceiver manufacturing, but the market is cyclical and customers such as hyperscalers hold significant bargaining power. | Medium-high |
| Management | CEO Jim Anderson, in the role since June 2024, is focused on AI datacenter growth, capacity expansion, portfolio cleanup, and debt reduction, while the company also issued equity that raised share count about 17% over one year. | Medium-high |
| Financial trend | Q3 fiscal 2026 revenue rose 20.5% year over year to $1.8056 billion, non-GAAP gross margin reached 39.6%, and non-GAAP EPS reached $1.41, with Q4 revenue guidance of $1.91 billion to $2.05 billion. | High |
| Valuation | At $262.89, COHR traded near 109.74x trailing EPS, about 35x forward earnings per StockAnalysis, 7.79x sales, and roughly 48x the fiscal 2026 consensus adjusted EPS of $5.45, so the multiple still prices in fast growth. | Medium |
| Technical trend | The stock closed below its 50-day and 100-day moving averages after a roughly 40% drawdown from the June 2026 high, with RSI near 40 and a bearish directional setup, while holding just above the 200-day average near $255. | Medium |
| Risk level | Risk is elevated because COHR combines negative trailing free cash flow, heavy capex, share dilution, high beta near 2.04, AI capex concentration, co-packaged optics substitution, and cyclical industrial demand. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | High confidence for price, shares, market cap, revenue, segment data, guidance, CEO history, and balance sheet references. Lower confidence for hyperscaler order durability, optical pricing, and co-packaged optics timing. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | Medium-low certainty. The business has strong AI optical exposure and improving margins, but margin of safety depends on growth lasting longer than the current multiple implies while the stock digests a large drawdown. | Medium-low |
COHR AI stock forecast
The COHR AI stock forecast uses scenario ranges around the $262.89 cutoff price and the StockAnalysis analyst price target range of $230 to $465 with a $391.45 average. It is not a certain AI price prediction. The bullish case requires AI datacenter optical revenue to keep compounding, co-packaged optics fears to fade, and margins to keep expanding. The base case assumes good growth but continued multiple compression after the drawdown. The bearish case assumes optical demand normalizes, dilution and capex pressure persist, or the market applies a lower multiple.
$390 to $460
More likely if fiscal 2027 revenue and adjusted EPS exceed consensus, Datacenter and Communications keeps growing in the high 20s to low 30s percent, non-GAAP gross margin moves above 40%, co-packaged optics disruption stays slow, and investors value COHR near 45x to 50x a higher adjusted EPS base.
$290 to $360
More likely if adjusted EPS compounds toward consensus near $8.29 for fiscal 2027 but the market resets COHR toward about 35x to 40x earnings, industrial demand stays uneven, share dilution continues, or optical order visibility becomes less scarce.
$180 to $235
More likely if AI datacenter demand slows, a large customer changes suppliers or timing, co-packaged optics adoption accelerates, capacity and inventory pressure hurts margins, free cash flow stays negative, or the stock rerates toward a lower optical hardware multiple near the low analyst target of $230.
COHR AI technical analysis
COHR AI technical analysis starts from the $262.89 July 31, 2026 close used for this August 2 static page. Public technical data show the stock below its 20-day, 50-day, and 100-day moving averages and just above the 200-day moving average near $255, with 14-day RSI near 40 and ADX near 27 with negative directional movement above positive directional movement. Because this page does not fetch live market data, traders should confirm every level on a current chart before acting.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $262.89 | Latest verified close used for this static page as of the August 2, 2026 data cutoff. |
| Near support | $254 to $257 | The 200-day moving average was near $254.95 and the July 31 intraday low was $257.13, making this the first meaningful demand zone. |
| Next support | About $249 | The July 30 close was near $249.06 and the 5-day moving average was near $249.73, forming a secondary floor below the current price. |
| Long-term support | $230 to $240 | A deeper decline into this area would test the zone near the low analyst price target of $230 and the pre-rally base. |
| Near resistance | $292 to $293 | The 20-day moving average was near $292.49 as of July 31, 2026, and a reclaim would be the first repair signal. |
| Higher resistance | $325 | The 100-day moving average was near $325.02, a key level for confirming that the drawdown has ended. |
| Recovery resistance | $347 | The 50-day moving average was near $347.42, the main level for a full short-term trend recovery. |
| 52-week high | $440.00 | The June 2026 high near $440 would require a fresh upside catalyst, not just a bounce from current levels. |
| 50-day moving average | About $347 | COHR was well below this area at the cutoff, confirming weak near-term momentum. |
| 200-day moving average | About $255 | COHR remained above this longer-term reference, so the larger uptrend was not fully broken by the July drawdown alone. |
| Momentum | RSI near 40, ADX near 27, bearish directional setup | 14-day RSI near 40.40 and 14-day ADX near 27.31 with negative directional movement above positive directional movement signal a downtrend rather than a neutral range. |
| Volume | Watch against 20-day average volume near 4.5 to 4.6 million | A rebound above $292 to $293 is more credible if volume expands rather than fades. |
| Volatility | High; 14-day historical volatility near 109% | 14-day historical volatility near 109% and a 14-day average true range near $29 mean position sizing must allow for large swings around AI hardware news and earnings. |
| Invalidation | Close below $249, then below $255 | A close below $249 weakens the near-term setup. A sustained break below the 200-day area near $255 would challenge the long-term uptrend and open the $230 to $240 zone. |
COHR AI trading strategy
The COHR AI trading strategy is a rules-based framework, not personalized advice. It combines AI optical infrastructure fundamentals, valuation discipline, technical confirmation, and clear invalidation levels. Traders can use Pineify tools to turn these conditions into chart alerts or a testable Pine Script strategy.
Wait for COHR to reclaim the 20-day moving average near $292 to $293 and then the 100-day area near $325 with volume above recent averages before treating the July drawdown as repaired.
A failed reclaim or a close below $249 should reduce confidence because the stock would still be losing momentum below its 20-day and 50-day averages.
If COHR stabilizes between $254 and $260 near the 200-day moving average, compare price action with the August 12, 2026 Q4 and fiscal year results, datacenter order commentary, margin updates, capex plans, and customer concentration signals.
Do not average down only because COHR is an AI infrastructure name. Define maximum loss first, and reassess the valuation multiple if growth expectations cool or free cash flow stays negative.
Track Datacenter and Communications revenue, Industrial revenue, non-GAAP gross margin, inventory, capex, debt, cash plus short-term investments, share count, free cash flow, customer concentration, and co-packaged optics commentary.
Lower the rating if revenue growth slows while inventory, capex, debt, dilution, or price pressure rises, or if free cash flow stays deeply negative.
Investment research summary
Coherent is a photonics and compound semiconductor manufacturer. Customers pay because AI datacenters, telecom networks, semiconductor equipment makers, industrial customers, and research users need optical transceivers, lasers, engineered materials, and precision photonic components.
The moat comes from vertical integration, materials know-how, internal laser and detector manufacturing, InP and GaAs capabilities, transceiver design, customer qualification cycles, and manufacturing scale. It is a technical moat, not a consumer brand moat.
The thesis can fail if AI optical demand was pulled forward, hyperscaler customers dual-source aggressively or move to co-packaged optics, capacity additions create price pressure, industrial markets stay weak, free cash flow stays negative, or investors decide optical hardware deserves a much lower multiple.
Jim Anderson became CEO and board member in June 2024 after leading Lattice Semiconductor. His tenure has focused on AI datacenter growth, capacity expansion, debt reduction, refinancing, portfolio pruning, and a financing path that raised the share count about 17% year over year.
AI clusters require high-speed optical links, transceivers, lasers, and related materials. That trend is real, but it is tied to hyperscaler capex cycles, product transitions, co-packaged optics substitution, supply constraints, and sharp sentiment swings like the July 2026 optical selloff.
At about $263, COHR still prices in a large AI optical opportunity even after the drawdown. The financial model shows upside if growth stays very strong, but negative trailing free cash flow and a high multiple leave a thin cushion if the market applies a lower multiple to still-good earnings growth.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| COHR price | $262.89 close on July 31, 2026, up 5.55% on the day | StockAnalysis COHR quote | July 31, 2026 |
| Market capitalization | $51.43 billion, verified as $262.89 x 195.64 million shares | StockAnalysis COHR statistics and Pineify calculation | August 1, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding | 195.64 million shares, up 16.99% year over year | StockAnalysis COHR statistics | August 1, 2026 |
| Fiscal 2025 revenue | $5.81 billion, up 23.42% year over year | StockAnalysis COHR financials | August 1, 2026 |
| Q3 fiscal 2026 revenue | $1.8056 billion, up 20.5% year over year | Coherent Q3 fiscal 2026 results | May 6, 2026 |
| Q3 fiscal 2026 segment revenue | Datacenter and Communications $1.3616 billion, up about 41% year over year; Industrial $444.0 million | Coherent Q3 fiscal 2026 results | May 6, 2026 |
| Q3 fiscal 2026 margins and EPS | GAAP gross margin 37.7%, non-GAAP gross margin 39.6%, GAAP EPS $0.97, non-GAAP EPS $1.41 | Coherent Q3 fiscal 2026 results | May 6, 2026 |
| Q4 fiscal 2026 guidance | Revenue $1.91 billion to $2.05 billion; non-GAAP gross margin 39.0% to 41.0%; non-GAAP EPS $1.52 to $1.72 | Coherent Q3 fiscal 2026 business outlook | May 6, 2026 |
| Cash plus short-term investments | $2.418 billion as of March 31, 2026 | StockAnalysis COHR balance sheet | August 1, 2026 |
| Total debt | $3.425 billion as of March 31, 2026, including lease obligations | StockAnalysis COHR balance sheet | August 1, 2026 |
| Net cash | Minus $1.007 billion, calculated as cash and investments of $2.418 billion minus total debt of $3.425 billion | Pineify calculation from StockAnalysis COHR balance sheet | August 1, 2026 |
| Trailing free cash flow | Operating cash flow of $140.34 million, capital expenditures of $678.58 million, free cash flow of minus $538.24 million over TTM | StockAnalysis COHR statistics | August 1, 2026 |
| Valuation ratios | Trailing PE 109.74, forward PE 35.13, price to sales 7.79, price to book 4.81, PEG 0.73 | StockAnalysis COHR statistics | August 1, 2026 |
| Consensus estimates | Fiscal 2026 adjusted EPS estimate $5.45 and fiscal 2027 adjusted EPS estimate $8.29; fiscal 2026 revenue estimate $7.06 billion | StockAnalysis COHR forecast | July 22, 2026 |
| Analyst consensus | Buy with an average target of $391.45 across 22 analysts, low $230 and high $465, median $400 | StockAnalysis COHR forecast | July 22, 2026 |
| Analyst rating mix, July 2026 | 13 Strong Buy, 4 Buy, 5 Hold, 0 Sell out of 22 analysts | StockAnalysis COHR forecast recommendation trends | July 22, 2026 |
| Recent analyst target updates | J.P. Morgan maintains Buy at $435, Raymond James raised to $435 from $371, Rosenblatt at $425, CMB International initiated at $465, Morgan Stanley Hold at $330 | StockAnalysis COHR forecast latest forecasts | July 22, 2026 |
| Technical references | 50-day moving average near $347.42, 100-day near $325.02, 200-day near $254.95, 14-day RSI near 40.40 | StockAnalysis COHR statistics and Barchart technical analysis | July 31, 2026 |
| Earnings date | FY2026 fourth quarter and fiscal year end results scheduled for August 12, 2026 | Coherent earnings release timing announcement | July 22, 2026 |
| CEO appointment | Jim Anderson was appointed CEO and board member on June 3, 2024 | Coherent leadership page | August 2, 2026 |
This COHR AI stock analysis page is an informational tool only. It is not investment advice, a recommendation, a solicitation, or a guarantee of future performance. Forecast scenarios are based on public data available at the cutoff date and can be wrong if earnings, valuation multiples, customer demand, supply conditions, rates, or market sentiment change.
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