Ferrovial N.V. research snapshot
FER AI stock analysis currently reads Ferrovial N.V. as a high-quality infrastructure owner and developer whose value is tied to North American managed lanes, 407 ETR, construction backlog, airport projects, and capital allocation. At the August 2, 2026 data cutoff, NASDAQ FER closed at $65.10 on July 31, and StockAnalysis reported a $47.07 billion market cap. H1 2026 results released on July 28 showed revenue of EUR 4,701 million, up 11.3% like for like, and adjusted EBITDA of EUR 746 million, up 21.6% like for like, led by U.S. highways. The positive case is that toll-road pricing and traffic, a record EUR 18 billion construction order book, New Terminal One progress, and disciplined capital allocation keep compounding asset value. The caution is valuation and complexity: FER trades at a premium earnings and free cash flow multiple, uses multiple listings and currencies, and depends on concessions, regulation, financing, traffic, and project execution. The FER AI stock forecast therefore uses scenario ranges, not a precise price prediction.
Current price
$65.10
Market cap
$47.07 billion reported market cap with a $46.95 billion audited share-count check
AI score
68 / 100
Rating
High-quality infrastructure concession platform with strong North America growth and a demanding valuation
Trend status
Correcting mildly below the 50-day and 200-day moving averages after a strong one-year advance, with momentum back to neutral
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Ferrovial invests in, develops, builds, and operates transportation infrastructure, with economics driven by toll roads, construction services, airport projects, energy, and asset recycling. | High |
| Moat | The moat comes from scarce concessions, project know-how, public-private partnership experience, traffic data, construction capability, and ownership in assets such as 407 ETR and U.S. managed lanes. | Medium-high |
| Management | CEO Ignacio Madridejos and the team have emphasized North America, asset rotation, buybacks, a scrip dividend, and selective growth projects. Capital allocation remains the key test. | Medium-high |
| Financial trend | H1 2026 revenue reached EUR 4,701 million, up 11.3% like for like, and adjusted EBITDA reached EUR 746 million, up 21.6% like for like. Net profit of EUR 258 million fell from EUR 540 million because H1 2025 included asset rotation gains. | High |
| Valuation | At $65.10, StockAnalysis showed about 68x trailing EPS, about 51x forward EPS, about 21.7x free cash flow, and a dividend yield near 2.0%. The trailing multiple is inflated by depressed trailing earnings. | Medium-high |
| Technical trend | FER closed near $65.10 on July 31, below the 50-day moving average near $66.41 and the 200-day moving average near $66.84, with RSI near 51.39 after a recovery from an oversold pullback. | Medium |
| Risk level | Key risks include high valuation, traffic weakness, concession and political risk, project delays, financing costs, project-company debt, currency movements, and construction margin pressure. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | Descriptive confidence is high because filings and market data are fresh. Return confidence is lower because asset valuation, rates, traffic, and multiple compression drive much of the outcome. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | FER looks like a strong infrastructure compounder at a demanding price. The stock needs continued toll-road growth and disciplined capital allocation to justify upside. | Medium |
FER AI stock forecast
The FER AI stock forecast uses the $65.10 price reference, forward EPS near $1.27 implied by the forward PE, and a three-year earnings multiple framework. The model produced a bullish range near $78 to $84, a base range near $58 to $64, and a bearish range near $34 to $40 before dividends. These are scenario ranges, not price promises.
$78 to $84 before dividends
More likely if 407 ETR and U.S. managed lanes keep growing revenue per transaction, construction margins hold at target, New Terminal One completes without major cost pressure, and investors keep valuing FER near a premium mid-to-high 40s forward earnings multiple.
$58 to $64 before dividends
More likely if forward earnings grow at a mid-single to low double-digit pace, H1 2026 operating momentum continues, the record order book converts at normal margins, but the market applies a forward multiple closer to the low 40s.
$34 to $40 before dividends
More likely if traffic weakens, concession politics or revenue sharing pressure returns, construction costs rise, project-company debt becomes more expensive, or the stock de-rates toward a lower infrastructure and construction multiple.
FER AI technical analysis
FER AI technical analysis uses market data available at the August 2, 2026 cutoff. StockAnalysis showed NASDAQ FER closing at $65.10 on July 31, a 50-day moving average near $66.41, a 200-day moving average near $66.84, RSI near 51.39, average 20-day volume near 1.62 million shares, and beta near 0.80. The July 31 intraday range was $64.75 to $65.49 and the 52-week range was $50.72 to $74.79. The setup is a mild correction below the moving averages within a stock that is still up strongly over the past year.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $65.10 | StockAnalysis showed NASDAQ FER closing at $65.10 on July 31, 2026, after a July 31 intraday range of $64.75 to $65.49. |
| Immediate support | $64.75 to $65.10 | This zone uses the July 31 intraday low and the July 31 closing price. |
| Moving-average resistance | $66.41 to $66.84 | StockAnalysis listed the 50-day moving average near $66.41 and the 200-day moving average near $66.84. |
| Deeper support | $50.72 to $55 | The lower boundary is the reported 52-week low. The upper boundary overlaps the bear and base scenario ranges. |
| Near resistance | $65.49 to $66.84 | The first resistance area spans the July 31 intraday high and the 200-day moving average. |
| Higher resistance | $74.79 | StockAnalysis listed the 52-week high at $74.79. |
| Momentum | RSI near 51.39 | Momentum recovered to neutral after the earlier pullback, so a move needs confirmation above the moving-average zone. |
| Volume | 20-day average near 1.62 million shares | A recovery above moving averages would carry more weight if volume expands above the recent average. |
| Volatility | Beta near 0.80 | FER has below-market beta, but concession stocks can still move sharply when rates, traffic, or political assumptions change. |
| Invalidation | Close below $64.75, then below $50.72 | A close below immediate support would keep pressure on the trend. A break below the 52-week low would challenge the larger infrastructure growth setup. |
FER AI trading strategy
The FER AI trading strategy below is a rules-based research framework, not personal advice. It connects chart levels with toll-road traffic, revenue per transaction, construction backlog, New Terminal One milestones, debt, currency, dividends, buybacks, and valuation discipline.
Watch for FER to reclaim the $66.41 to $66.84 moving-average zone and then hold above it while H2 2026 results confirm traffic growth, managed-lane pricing power, construction margin, and progress at New Terminal One.
A failed reclaim followed by a close below $64.75 should reduce trend confidence, especially if earnings commentary points to slower traffic, higher financing costs, or project delays.
If FER sells off toward the $50.72 to $55 support area while asset performance remains intact, compare the lower price with the base and bear scenarios before assuming the pullback offers enough margin of safety.
Do not treat a cheaper stock as attractive by itself. The setup needs evidence that toll-road economics, construction order book quality, liquidity, and capital allocation remain healthy.
Track H2 2026 results, 407 ETR traffic and its CAD 550 million dividend approved for Q3 2026, U.S. managed-lane revenue per transaction, construction order book, adjusted EBITDA, ex-infrastructure liquidity, project-company debt, dividend policy, buybacks, and foreign exchange.
Position sizing should reflect that FER is a long-duration infrastructure platform with concession and financing risk, not a personalized recommendation or guaranteed income product.
Investment research summary
Customers and governments pay Ferrovial because roads, airport capacity, and related infrastructure reduce travel friction and support economic activity. The business converts scarce concessions and construction capability into long-duration cash flows.
The moat is built from concession rights, traffic data, complex project delivery, public-private partnership experience, embedded local relationships, and assets that are hard to duplicate once permitted and financed.
The thesis fails if traffic disappoints, governments cap returns, construction cost overruns absorb value, project-company leverage becomes expensive, political scrutiny rises, or the stock multiple compresses faster than asset value grows.
Management should be judged by disciplined asset rotation, project selection, buyback timing, scrip dividend choices, debt structure, and whether North America growth increases per-share value rather than just reported scale.
Urban congestion, aging infrastructure, public budget constraints, and private capital for transport assets support long-term demand. The offset is that the same public role brings regulatory, political, and affordability constraints.
At about 51x forward EPS and 21.7x free cash flow, FER is not priced as a distressed infrastructure asset. Margin of safety improves if the stock pulls back while toll-road performance and capital allocation remain intact.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| FER quote reference | NASDAQ FER closed at $65.10 on July 31, 2026, with a July 31 intraday range of $64.75 to $65.49 | StockAnalysis FER statistics | August 2, 2026 |
| Market capitalization and shares | $47.07 billion reported market cap and 721.13 million shares outstanding; audited share-count math produced $46.95 billion, a 0.26% source and timing variance | StockAnalysis FER statistics and Pineify financial_rigor.py | August 2, 2026 |
| H1 2026 revenue | EUR 4,701 million, up 5.2% reported and 11.3% like for like, with Highways up 15.8% and Construction up 9.7% like for like | Ferrovial H1 2026 results press release | August 2, 2026 |
| H1 2026 adjusted EBITDA | EUR 746 million, up 13.9% reported and 21.6% like for like, led by U.S. highways at EUR 521 million up 15.6% like for like | Ferrovial H1 2026 results press release | August 2, 2026 |
| H1 2026 net profit | EUR 258 million attributed to the parent, compared with EUR 540 million in H1 2025 when the company accounted for capital gains from asset rotation | Ferrovial H1 2026 results press release | August 2, 2026 |
| Construction order book | Record EUR 18,046 million as of June 2026, up 2.8% like for like from December 2025, with North America 47.9%, Poland 22.9%, and Spain 14.0% | Ferrovial H1 2026 results press release | August 2, 2026 |
| Liquidity and net debt | Ex-infrastructure project companies liquidity of EUR 4,747 million and consolidated net debt of ex-infrastructure project companies of EUR -1,307 million at June 2026 | Ferrovial H1 2026 results press release | August 2, 2026 |
| 407 ETR and New Terminal One | 407 ETR traffic grew 1.8% and revenue reached CAD 1,108 million, up 18.7%, with a CAD 550 million dividend approved for Q3 2026. New Terminal One equity injections completed at USD 1.1 billion and construction progress at 92% | Ferrovial H1 2026 results press release | August 2, 2026 |
| Valuation and dividend | Trailing PE about 67.99, forward PE about 51.30, P/FCF about 21.70, dividend yield about 1.99%, and analyst price target of $77.23 with a Buy consensus | StockAnalysis FER statistics | August 2, 2026 |
| Technical references | 50-day moving average near $66.41, 200-day moving average near $66.84, RSI near 51.39, and 20-day average volume near 1.62 million shares | StockAnalysis FER statistics | August 2, 2026 |
| 52-week range | $50.72 to $74.79, with July 31 intraday range near $64.75 to $65.49 | StockAnalysis FER overview | August 2, 2026 |
This FER AI stock analysis is an informational research tool only. It is not investment advice, not a recommendation to buy or sell securities, and not a personalized trading plan. Forecast scenarios are based on available public data and audited calculations as of the stated cutoff date, and they can be wrong.
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