Ferrovial N.V. research snapshot
FER AI stock analysis currently reads Ferrovial N.V. as a high-quality infrastructure owner and developer whose value is tied to North American managed lanes, 407 ETR, construction backlog, airport projects, and capital allocation. At the July 9, 2026 data cutoff, NASDAQ FER traded near $64.28 intraday on July 8 and StockAnalysis reported a $47.60 billion market cap. The positive case is that toll-road pricing, traffic, New Terminal One at JFK, and a record construction order book keep compounding asset value. The caution is valuation and complexity: FER trades at a premium earnings and free cash flow multiple, uses multiple listings and currencies, and depends on concessions, regulation, financing, traffic, and project execution. The FER AI stock forecast therefore uses scenario ranges, not a precise price prediction.
Current price
$64.28
Market cap
$47.60 billion reported market cap with a $46.32 billion audited share-count check
AI score
68 / 100
Rating
High-quality infrastructure concession platform with premium assets, North America growth, and valuation sensitivity
Trend status
Correcting below the 50-day and 200-day moving averages after a strong one-year advance
Data cutoff (updated weekly)
July 9, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Ferrovial invests in, develops, builds, and operates transportation infrastructure, with economics driven by toll roads, construction services, airport projects, energy, and asset recycling. | High |
| Moat | The moat comes from scarce concessions, project know-how, public-private partnership experience, traffic data, construction capability, and ownership in assets such as 407 ETR and U.S. managed lanes. | Medium-high |
| Management | CEO Ignacio Madridejos and the team have emphasized North America, asset rotation, buybacks, dividends, and selective growth projects. Capital allocation remains the key test. | Medium-high |
| Financial trend | FY2025 revenue was about EUR 9.63 billion and net profit was EUR 888 million. Q1 2026 revenue reached EUR 2.10 billion and adjusted EBITDA reached EUR 321 million. | High |
| Valuation | At $64.28, audited valuation math showed about 44.3x TTM EPS, 5.3x book value, 32.8x free cash flow, and a dividend yield near 1.6%. | Medium-high |
| Technical trend | FER was below the 50-day moving average near $68.14 and the 200-day moving average near $66.39, with RSI near 40.70 after a pullback from the 52-week high. | Medium |
| Risk level | Key risks include high valuation, traffic weakness, concession and political risk, project delays, financing costs, project-company debt, currency movements, and construction margin pressure. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | Descriptive confidence is high because filings and market data are fresh. Return confidence is lower because asset valuation, rates, traffic, and multiple compression drive much of the outcome. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | FER looks like a strong infrastructure compounder at a demanding price. The stock needs continued toll-road growth and disciplined capital allocation to justify upside. | Medium |
FER AI stock forecast
The FER AI stock forecast uses the $64.28 price reference, TTM EPS near $1.45, and a three-year earnings multiple framework. The audited model produced a bullish value near $76.70, a base value near $55.50, and a bearish value near $34.80 before dividends. These are scenario ranges, not price promises.
$73 to $79 before dividends
More likely if 407 ETR and U.S. managed lanes keep growing revenue per trip, construction margin stays resilient, New Terminal One progresses without major cost pressure, and investors keep valuing FER near a premium low-40s earnings multiple.
$52 to $59 before dividends
More likely if EPS grows near mid-single digits, Q1 2026 operating momentum continues, the order book converts at normal margins, but the market applies a lower infrastructure multiple closer to the mid-30s.
$32 to $38 before dividends
More likely if traffic weakens, concession politics or revenue sharing pressure returns, construction costs rise, project-company debt becomes more expensive, or the stock de-rates toward a lower infrastructure and construction multiple.
FER AI technical analysis
FER AI technical analysis uses market data available at the July 9, 2026 cutoff. StockAnalysis showed NASDAQ FER at $64.28 during the July 8 session, a 50-day moving average near $68.14, a 200-day moving average near $66.39, RSI near 40.70, average 20-day volume near 1.76 million shares, and beta near 0.80. Robinhood showed a July 8 intraday range of $64.15 to $64.94 and a 52-week range of $50.72 to $74.79. The setup is a pullback within a stock that is still up strongly over the past year.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $64.28 | StockAnalysis showed NASDAQ FER at $64.28 at 12:03 PM EDT on July 8, 2026. |
| Immediate support | $64.15 to $64.28 | This zone uses the July 8 intraday low area and the StockAnalysis intraday quote. |
| Moving-average resistance | $66.39 to $68.14 | StockAnalysis listed the 200-day moving average near $66.39 and the 50-day moving average near $68.14. |
| Deeper support | $50.72 to $55 | The lower boundary is the reported 52-week low. The upper boundary overlaps the audited base-case value. |
| Near resistance | $64.94 to $66.39 | The first resistance area spans the July 8 intraday high and the 200-day moving average. |
| Higher resistance | $74.79 | Robinhood listed the 52-week high at $74.79. |
| Momentum | RSI near 40.70 | Momentum is weak but not deeply oversold, so a rebound needs confirmation above the moving-average zone. |
| Volume | 20-day average near 1.76 million shares | A recovery above moving averages would carry more weight if volume expands above the recent average. |
| Volatility | Beta near 0.80 | FER has below-market beta, but concession stocks can still move sharply when rates, traffic, or political assumptions change. |
| Invalidation | Close below $64, then below $50.72 | A close below immediate support would keep pressure on the trend. A break below the 52-week low would challenge the larger infrastructure growth setup. |
FER AI trading strategy
The FER AI trading strategy below is a rules-based research framework, not personal advice. It connects chart levels with toll-road traffic, revenue per transaction, construction backlog, New Terminal One milestones, debt, currency, dividends, buybacks, and valuation discipline.
Watch for FER to reclaim the $66.39 to $68.14 moving-average zone and then hold above it while Q2 results confirm traffic growth, managed-lane pricing power, construction margin, and progress at New Terminal One.
A failed reclaim followed by a close below $64 should reduce trend confidence, especially if earnings commentary points to slower traffic, higher financing costs, or project delays.
If FER sells off toward the $50.72 to $55 support area while asset performance remains intact, compare the lower price with the audited base and bear scenarios before assuming the pullback offers enough margin of safety.
Do not treat a cheaper stock as attractive by itself. The setup needs evidence that toll-road economics, construction order book quality, liquidity, and capital allocation remain healthy.
Track Q2 2026 results, 407 ETR traffic and dividends, U.S. managed-lane revenue per transaction, construction order book, adjusted EBITDA, ex-infrastructure liquidity, project-company debt, dividend policy, buybacks, and foreign exchange.
Position sizing should reflect that FER is a long-duration infrastructure platform with concession and financing risk, not a personalized recommendation or guaranteed income product.
Investment research summary
Customers and governments pay Ferrovial because roads, airport capacity, and related infrastructure reduce travel friction and support economic activity. The business converts scarce concessions and construction capability into long-duration cash flows.
The moat is built from concession rights, traffic data, complex project delivery, public-private partnership experience, embedded local relationships, and assets that are hard to duplicate once permitted and financed.
The thesis fails if traffic disappoints, governments cap returns, construction cost overruns absorb value, project-company leverage becomes expensive, political scrutiny rises, or the stock multiple compresses faster than asset value grows.
Management should be judged by disciplined asset rotation, project selection, buyback timing, dividend choices, debt structure, and whether North America growth increases per-share value rather than just reported scale.
Urban congestion, aging infrastructure, public budget constraints, and private capital for transport assets support long-term demand. The offset is that the same public role brings regulatory, political, and affordability constraints.
At about 44.3x TTM EPS and 32.8x free cash flow, FER is not priced as a distressed infrastructure asset. Margin of safety improves if the stock pulls back while toll-road performance and capital allocation remain intact.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| FER quote reference | $64.28 intraday quote on July 8, 2026, down 2.38% at 12:03 PM EDT | StockAnalysis FER statistics | July 9, 2026 |
| Market capitalization and shares | $47.60 billion reported market cap and 720.63 million shares outstanding; audited share-count math produced $46.32 billion, a 2.68% source and timing variance | StockAnalysis FER statistics and Pineify financial_rigor.py | July 9, 2026 |
| FY2025 revenue | EUR 9.627 billion from Ferrovial, cross-checked against EUR 9.63 billion TTM revenue from StockAnalysis | Ferrovial FY2025 results release | July 9, 2026 |
| FY2025 net profit | EUR 888 million, consistent between Ferrovial FY2025 release and StockAnalysis TTM profit data | Ferrovial FY2025 results release | July 9, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 revenue and adjusted EBITDA | Revenue of EUR 2.098 billion, up 10.2% like for like, and adjusted EBITDA of EUR 321 million, up 15.0% like for like | SEC 6-K Ferrovial Q1 2026 results | July 9, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 segment revenue | Highways EUR 336 million, Construction EUR 1.625 billion, Energy EUR 118 million, Airports EUR 5 million, and Other EUR 13 million | SEC 6-K Ferrovial Q1 2026 results | July 9, 2026 |
| Liquidity and net debt | Ex-infrastructure project companies liquidity of EUR 5.451 billion and consolidated net debt of ex-infrastructure project companies of EUR -1.218 billion at March 2026 | SEC 6-K Ferrovial Q1 2026 results | July 9, 2026 |
| Cash and debt cross-check | Third-party balance sheet sources showed cash and equivalents near EUR 4.24 billion and debt near EUR 10.73 billion, which differs from Ferrovial segment net debt presentation | StockAnalysis BME FER statistics | July 9, 2026 |
| Technical references | 50-day moving average near $68.14, 200-day moving average near $66.39, RSI near 40.70, and 20-day average volume near 1.76 million shares | StockAnalysis FER statistics | July 9, 2026 |
| 52-week range | $50.72 to $74.79, with July 8 intraday range near $64.15 to $64.94 | Robinhood FER quote page | July 9, 2026 |
This FER AI stock analysis is an informational research tool only. It is not investment advice, not a recommendation to buy or sell securities, and not a personalized trading plan. Forecast scenarios are based on available public data and audited calculations as of the stated cutoff date, and they can be wrong.
