Fastenal Company research snapshot
FAST AI stock analysis currently reads Fastenal as a high-quality industrial distribution compounder with a sticky onsite, vending, digital, and logistics model. The stock closed at $47.11 on July 7, 2026, and the audited market cap check produced about $54.08 billion using 1.148 billion Q1 2026 shares outstanding. The positive case is that Fastenal keeps gaining large national-account share, expands onsite and FMI programs, and converts modest industrial growth into durable cash flow. The caution is valuation: the FAST AI stock forecast starts from about 41.7x TTM EPS and 46.6x free cash flow, so even a strong business can deliver weak returns if growth or market multiples disappoint.
Current price
$47.11
Market cap
$54.08 billion verified market cap
AI score
71 / 100
Rating
High-quality industrial distributor with embedded customer workflows, strong returns, and a demanding valuation
Trend status
Price pulled back below short moving averages, but remains above the 100-day and 200-day trend references
Data cutoff (updated weekly)
July 8, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Fastenal sells fasteners, safety supplies, tools, vending, onsite inventory, digital ordering, and supply-chain services to manufacturing and construction customers with recurring usage patterns. | High |
| Moat | The moat comes from branch density, onsite service, vending and bin systems, national-account contracts, logistics, data, and customer process integration. It is not immune to price competition. | Medium-high |
| Management | Management has a long record of disciplined branch, onsite, vending, digital, dividend, and capital allocation execution. The current test is preserving returns while serving larger lower-gross-margin customers. | High |
| Financial trend | 2025 revenue was about $8.20 billion and net income was about $1.26 billion. Q1 2026 net sales rose 12.4% to $2.20 billion and net income rose 13.8% to $339.8 million. | High |
| Valuation | At $47.11, audited valuation math shows about 41.7x TTM EPS, 13.5x book value, 46.6x free cash flow, and a 2.0% dividend yield. | Medium-high |
| Technical trend | Daily price action weakened after a two-day pullback. Investing.com showed FAST below the 5-day, 10-day, 20-day, and 50-day moving averages but above the 100-day and 200-day simple moving averages. | Medium |
| Risk level | Key risks are premium valuation, weak manufacturing production, customer mix pressure, tariffs, freight and labor costs, national-account pricing, and execution risk in logistics and onsite programs. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | Descriptive data confidence is high. Return confidence is lower because valuation and industrial-cycle assumptions drive much of the outcome. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | FAST looks like a strong business at a full price. The setup favors watchlist discipline unless growth reaccelerates enough to justify the multiple or the price offers a wider margin of safety. | Medium |
FAST AI stock forecast
The FAST AI stock forecast uses the $47.11 price reference, TTM EPS of about $1.13, and a three-year earnings multiple framework. The audited model produced a bearish value near $32.10, a base value near $48.40, and a bullish value near $66.70 before dividends. These are scenario ranges, not price promises.
$62 to $68
More likely if industrial production improves, national-account signings stay strong, onsite and FMI penetration expand, operating margin holds near 20%, EPS compounds near low double digits, and the market keeps assigning Fastenal a premium multiple near 42x.
$45 to $51
More likely if EPS grows near high single digits, pricing offsets cost pressure, customer mix remains a gross-margin headwind but operating leverage holds, and the market values FAST closer to the mid-30s earnings multiple.
$30 to $35
More likely if manufacturing demand weakens, tariffs or freight costs pressure margin, larger customers reduce pricing power, or the market re-rates FAST toward a lower industrial-distributor multiple.
FAST AI technical analysis
FAST AI technical analysis uses market data available at the July 8, 2026 cutoff. FAST closed at $47.11 on July 7, 2026 after a 2.48% decline. StockAnalysis showed a 50-day moving average near $45.36, a 200-day moving average near $44.35, RSI near 54.15, and average 20-day volume near 7.50 million shares. Investing.com showed short moving-average pressure, with the 5-day through 50-day simple moving averages above the close, while the 100-day and 200-day references remained lower.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $47.11 | July 7, 2026 close from MarketWatch market data. |
| Immediate support | $46.90 to $47.10 | This zone overlaps Investing.com classic and Fibonacci pivot support after the July 7 decline. |
| Moving average support | $44.35 to $45.36 | StockAnalysis reported the 200-day moving average near $44.35 and the 50-day moving average near $45.36. |
| Deeper support | $32 to $35 | This range overlaps the audited bearish scenario value if earnings growth slows and the market multiple compresses. |
| Near resistance | $47.50 to $47.90 | The 10-day, 20-day, and 50-day moving-average cluster from Investing.com sits above the current close. |
| Higher resistance | $50.63 to $51 | MarketWatch reported FAST was 6.95% below its $50.63 52-week high after the July 7 close. |
| Momentum | RSI near 54.15, Investing.com 14-day RSI near 38.58 | Momentum readings differ by provider and calculation timing, so the signal is mixed rather than decisive. |
| Volume | About 6.3 million shares on July 7 | MarketWatch reported volume below the 50-day average of about 7.0 million shares. |
| Volatility | Beta near 0.71 | StockAnalysis reported beta below 1.0, but valuation sensitivity can still create sharp moves around earnings. |
| Invalidation | Close below $44 | A decisive break below the 200-day area would weaken the long-term trend-following setup. |
FAST AI trading strategy
The FAST AI trading strategy below is a rules-based research framework, not personal advice. It links price behavior with industrial demand, onsite and FMI growth, margin quality, cash conversion, dividends, and valuation discipline.
Watch for FAST to reclaim the $47.50 to $47.90 moving-average cluster and then retest the $50 to $51 high area on improving volume while Q2 results confirm sales growth, margin stability, and healthy cash conversion.
A close below $44, weaker daily sales, or margin deterioration should reduce trend-following confidence.
If FAST retests the $44 to $45 moving-average support area without a change in business quality, compare the lower price with the audited base and bear scenarios before assuming the pullback is attractive.
Do not treat a lower price as enough by itself. The setup needs evidence that national-account growth, onsite penetration, operating margin, and free cash flow remain intact.
Track daily sales growth, fastener growth, safety product demand, onsite signings, FMI sales, digital footprint, gross margin, operating margin, operating cash flow, debt, and dividend coverage.
Position sizing should reflect that FAST is a high-return distributor with real cyclical and valuation risk, not a certain compounding machine.
Investment research summary
Customers pay Fastenal because it lowers the total cost and operational friction of sourcing thousands of small but mission-critical industrial products near the point of use.
The moat is built from local density, onsite staffing, vending and bin systems, captive logistics, supplier relationships, national-account contracts, and process integration inside customer facilities.
The thesis fails if manufacturing weakens, large customers force lower pricing, tariffs and freight costs squeeze gross margin, e-commerce rivals reduce service differentiation, or valuation compresses faster than earnings grow.
Fastenal management has compounded through branch discipline, onsite programs, vending, digital tools, dividends, and working-capital control. The key test is whether that culture can keep returns high as the mix shifts toward larger customers.
Industrial supply remains essential and fragmented. Fastenal benefits from customers outsourcing inventory complexity, but it remains tied to manufacturing production, construction activity, and the purchasing cycle.
At $47.11, the current price embeds premium expectations. The margin of safety is limited unless earnings compound near the bullish case or the entry price falls closer to support while fundamentals remain strong.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| Current price and daily move | $47.11 close on July 7, 2026, down 2.48% on about 6.3 million shares | MarketWatch FAST market data | July 8, 2026 |
| Market cap and shares | $54.08 billion market cap and 1.15 billion shares outstanding; audited with Q1 2026 issued shares of 1,148,000,984 | StockAnalysis FAST statistics and Fastenal Q1 2026 release | July 8, 2026 |
| 2025 revenue cross-check | $8.2005 billion company-reported revenue, cross-checked against Macrotrends at about $8.201 billion | Fastenal 2025 Form 10-K and Macrotrends | July 8, 2026 |
| 2025 net income cross-check | $1.2584 billion company-reported net income, cross-checked against rounded third-party net income near $1.26 billion | Fastenal 2025 Form 10-K and MarketBeat | July 8, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 performance | $2.2017 billion net sales, $447.6 million operating income, $339.8 million net income, and $0.30 diluted EPS | Fastenal Q1 2026 earnings release | July 8, 2026 |
| Cash and debt | $308.6 million cash and cash equivalents, $125.0 million debt excluding operating lease liabilities, and about $183.6 million net cash | Fastenal Q1 2026 earnings release | July 8, 2026 |
| Dividend | $0.24 quarterly dividend declared in January 2026 and April 2026, or about $0.96 annualized | Fastenal dividend history | July 8, 2026 |
| Technical indicators | 50-day MA $45.36, 200-day MA $44.35, RSI 54.15, beta 0.71, and 20-day average volume 7,496,576 | StockAnalysis FAST statistics | July 8, 2026 |
| Moving-average and pivot detail | Investing.com showed MA5 $47.18, MA10 $47.57, MA20 $47.88, MA50 $47.71, MA100 $46.94, MA200 $46.36, and classic pivot near $47.18 | Investing.com FAST technical analysis | July 8, 2026 |
This FAST AI stock analysis page is an informational research tool only. It is not investment advice, a recommendation, or a promise of future return. Forecast ranges are scenario estimates based on available public data as of July 8, 2026 and can be wrong if earnings, margins, industrial demand, tariffs, market multiples, or macro conditions change.
