Fastenal Company research snapshot
FAST AI stock analysis reads Fastenal as a high-quality industrial distribution compounder whose growth reaccelerated in Q2 2026. The stock closed at $47.71 on July 31, 2026, and the audited market cap check produced about $54.75 billion using 1.147 billion Q2 2026 shares outstanding. The positive case is that Q2 2026 daily sales rose 14.7%, operating margin held at 21.0%, ROIC hit a decade-plus high, and share gains with larger contract customers keep compounding. The caution is valuation and margin: the FAST AI stock forecast starts from about 40.8x trailing EPS and 47.4x free cash flow, gross margin fell 75 basis points on price and cost pressure, and the leadership transition from Dan Florness to Jeff Watts adds execution risk.
Current price
$47.71
Market cap
$54.75 billion verified market cap
AI score
73 / 100
Rating
High-quality industrial distributor with accelerating sales, record ROIC, and a demanding valuation
Trend status
Price holds above the 50-day and 200-day moving averages with RSI near 56, keeping the medium-term uptrend intact
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Fastenal sells fasteners, safety supplies, tools, vending, onsite inventory, digital ordering, and supply-chain services to manufacturing and construction customers with recurring usage patterns. | High |
| Moat | The moat comes from branch density, onsite service, FMI vending and bin systems, national-account contracts, logistics, data, and customer process integration. It is not immune to price competition. | Medium-high |
| Management | Dan Florness ran his final earnings call as CEO on July 14, 2026 after three decades at the company, and Jeff Watts, President and Chief Sales Officer, leads the sales-driven strategy. The team is experienced, but the succession is a new variable. | High for continuity, medium for transition execution |
| Financial trend | Q2 2026 net sales rose 14.7% to $2.39 billion, operating income rose 15.1% to $501.8 million, net income rose 15.9% to $382.8 million, and diluted EPS rose to $0.33 from $0.29. | High |
| Valuation | At $47.71, audited valuation math shows about 40.8x trailing EPS, 35.8x forward EPS, 6.3x sales, 47.4x free cash flow, and a 2.01% dividend yield. | Medium-high |
| Technical trend | StockAnalysis showed FAST at $47.71 on July 31, 2026, above the 50-day moving average near $46.16 and the 200-day near $44.26, with RSI near 56.4. | Medium |
| Risk level | Key risks are gross margin pressure from price and cost, customer mix shift to larger accounts, fuel and tariff inflation, premium valuation, CEO transition, and a manufacturing slowdown. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | Descriptive data confidence is high. Return confidence is lower because valuation, margin, and industrial-cycle assumptions drive much of the outcome. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | FAST looks like a strong business compounding well, but the price leaves a thin margin of safety. The setup favors watchlist discipline unless gross margin stabilizes and the multiple offers a better entry. | Medium |
FAST AI stock forecast
The FAST AI stock forecast uses the $47.71 price reference, trailing EPS of about $1.17, forward consensus EPS of $1.26 for 2026 and $1.40 for 2027, and a three-year earnings multiple framework. The audited model produced a bearish value near $36, a base value near $50, and a bullish value near $66 before dividends. These are scenario ranges, not price promises.
$63 to $70
More likely if industrial production keeps improving, national-account and onsite share gains continue, FMI and Digital Footprint penetration expands, gross margin stabilizes as price and cost near neutral, EPS compounds at low double digits, and the market keeps assigning Fastenal a premium multiple near 40x.
$47 to $53
More likely if EPS grows near high single to low double digits, price and cost headwinds persist but narrow, operating margin holds near 21%, customer mix stays a gross-margin drag, and the market values FAST closer to the mid-30s earnings multiple in line with the analyst target near $48.
$33 to $39
More likely if manufacturing demand weakens, tariffs or fuel costs squeeze margin, larger customers reduce pricing power, the leadership transition disrupts execution, or the market re-rates FAST toward the high-20s multiple seen in 2022.
FAST AI technical analysis
FAST AI technical analysis uses market data available at the July 31, 2026 cutoff. FAST closed at $47.71 on July 31, 2026, up 2.25% for the day. StockAnalysis showed a 50-day moving average near $46.16, a 200-day moving average near $44.26, RSI near 56.42, beta near 0.71, and 20-day average volume near 9.02 million shares. The price sits 5.8% below the $50.63 52-week high and well above the $38.97 52-week low.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $47.71 | July 31, 2026 close from StockAnalysis CBOE market data, up 2.25% on the day. |
| Immediate support | $46.40 to $47.10 | The July 31 session low near $46.38 and the 50-day moving average near $46.16 form the first support zone. |
| Moving average support | $44.26 to $46.16 | StockAnalysis reported the 200-day moving average near $44.26 and the 50-day moving average near $46.16. |
| Deeper support | $38.97 to $40 | The 52-week low is $38.97, and the audited bearish scenario value sits near $36 to $39. |
| Near resistance | $48 to $50.63 | The stock is 5.8% below the $50.63 52-week high, with seller interest likely between $48 and the high. |
| Higher resistance | $50.63 to $52 | A break above the 52-week high would open the way toward the $52 area cited in some analyst targets. |
| Momentum | RSI near 56.42 | Momentum is positive but not overbought, consistent with a steady uptrend rather than a stretched move. |
| Volume | About 9.65 million shares on July 31 | Volume was above the 20-day average of about 9.02 million shares on the up day. |
| Volatility | Beta near 0.71 | StockAnalysis reported beta below 1.0, but valuation sensitivity can still create sharp moves around earnings. |
| Invalidation | Close below $44 | A decisive break below the 200-day area near $44 would weaken the medium-term trend-following setup. |
FAST AI trading strategy
The FAST AI trading strategy below is a rules-based research framework, not personal advice. It links price behavior with daily sales growth, margin quality, gross margin trend, cash conversion, dividends, share gains, and the CEO transition.
Watch for FAST to hold above the $46.40 support and the 50-day moving average near $46.16, then confirm an uptrend if it pushes through the $48 to $50.63 zone on rising volume while Q3 results confirm sales growth, gross margin stabilization, and healthy cash conversion.
A close below $44, weaker daily sales, or gross margin deterioration should reduce trend-following confidence.
If FAST retests the $44.26 to $46.16 moving-average support area without a change in business quality, compare the lower price with the audited base and bear scenarios before assuming the pullback is attractive.
Do not treat a lower price as enough by itself. The setup needs evidence that national-account growth, onsite penetration, gross margin, operating margin, and free cash flow remain intact.
Track daily sales growth, contract customer sales, FMI signings and sales, Digital Footprint mix, gross margin, operating margin, operating cash flow, debt, dividend coverage, and management transition updates from the new leadership team.
Position sizing should reflect that FAST is a high-return distributor with real margin, cyclical, transition, and valuation risk, not a certain compounding machine.
Investment research summary
Customers pay Fastenal because it lowers the total cost and operational friction of sourcing thousands of small but mission-critical industrial products near the point of use.
The moat is built from local density, onsite staffing, FMI vending and bin systems, captive logistics, supplier relationships, national-account contracts, and process integration inside customer facilities.
The thesis fails if manufacturing weakens, larger customers force lower pricing, tariffs and fuel costs squeeze gross margin, e-commerce rivals reduce service differentiation, the CEO transition stumbles, or valuation compresses faster than earnings grow.
Dan Florness ran his final earnings call as CEO on July 14, 2026 after 30 years at Fastenal. Jeff Watts, President and Chief Sales Officer, is stepping into leadership of the sales-driven strategy. The track record is strong; the transition is now the test.
Industrial supply remains essential and fragmented, and the Q2 2026 environment improved with the U.S. PMI averaging just above 53. Fastenal benefits from customers outsourcing inventory complexity, but it stays tied to manufacturing production and the purchasing cycle.
At $47.71, the current price embeds premium expectations of about 40.8x trailing EPS. The margin of safety is limited unless EPS compounds near the bullish case or the entry price falls toward moving-average support while fundamentals remain strong.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| Current price and daily move | $47.71 close on July 31, 2026, up 2.25%, with after-hours at $47.82 | StockAnalysis FAST quote | August 1, 2026 |
| Market cap and shares | $54.75 billion market cap and about 1.15 billion shares outstanding; audited with Q2 2026 issued shares of 1,147,494,415 | StockAnalysis FAST statistics and Fastenal Q2 2026 balance sheet | August 1, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 performance | $2,386.9 million net sales, $501.8 million operating income, $382.8 million net income, and $0.33 diluted EPS; daily sales rose 14.7% | Fastenal Q2 2026 earnings release | July 14, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 cash flow and shareholder returns | $265.7 million operating cash flow, or 69.4% of net income, and $305.1 million returned to shareholders, or 79.7% of net income | Fastenal Q2 2026 earnings release | July 14, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 margin detail | Gross margin 44.6%, down 75 basis points year over year, with about 40 basis points of net price and cost headwind; operating margin 21.0%, consistent year over year | Fastenal Q2 2026 earnings release | July 14, 2026 |
| Balance sheet | $204.7 million cash, $120.0 million total debt excluding operating leases, and $4,068.8 million stockholders equity at June 30, 2026 | Fastenal Q2 2026 earnings release | July 14, 2026 |
| Valuation ratios | Trailing PE 40.78, forward PE 35.76, PS 6.26, PB 13.46, P/FCF 47.36, EV/EBITDA 28.13, and PEG 3.12 | StockAnalysis FAST statistics | August 1, 2026 |
| TTM financials | TTM revenue $8.749 billion, gross margin 44.70%, operating margin 20.29%, net income $1.352 billion, EPS $1.17, and free cash flow $1.156 billion | StockAnalysis FAST statistics | August 1, 2026 |
| Dividend | $0.26 quarterly dividend declared for the August 25, 2026 payment, up from $0.24, for about $1.04 annualized; trailing yield near 2.01% | StockAnalysis FAST dividend and Fastenal July 2026 announcement | August 1, 2026 |
| Technical indicators | 50-day MA $46.16, 200-day MA $44.26, RSI 56.42, beta 0.71, 20-day average volume 9,022,159, and 52-week range $38.97 to $50.63 | StockAnalysis FAST statistics | August 1, 2026 |
| Analyst consensus | Consensus Hold from 18 analysts, average price target $47.84, range $39.90 to $55; 2026 EPS estimate $1.26 and 2027 EPS estimate $1.40 | StockAnalysis FAST forecast | July 30, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 call context | Dan Florness ran his final earnings call as CEO on July 14, 2026; Jeff Watts, President and Chief Sales Officer, discussed share gains, FMI and Digital Footprint momentum, and pricing of about 2.9% in the quarter | Fastenal Q2 2026 earnings call transcript | July 14, 2026 |
This FAST AI stock analysis page is an informational research tool only. It is not investment advice, a recommendation, or a promise of future return. Forecast ranges are scenario estimates based on available public data as of July 31, 2026 and can be wrong if earnings, margins, industrial demand, tariffs, fuel costs, market multiples, management transition, or macro conditions change.
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