FedEx Freight Holding Company, Inc. research snapshot
FDXF AI stock analysis currently reads FedEx Freight as a high-quality North American less-than-truckload carrier with a strong network position but limited standalone public-company history. At the August 2, 2026 data cutoff, FDXF last closed near $140.53 on July 31, 2026, with a market capitalization of about $21.01 billion, after regular-way NYSE trading began on June 1, 2026. The stock has traded down from a 52-week high near $200 and is now testing support near its post spin-off low around $135. The AI view is neutral to cautious: the operating franchise is attractive and sell-side coverage has turned broadly constructive, but the valuation and leverage already price in a clean separation and better execution. This page is an information tool, not investment advice.
Current price
$140.53
Market cap
$21.01 billion
AI score
55 / 100
Rating
Watchlist with valuation discipline
Trend status
Downtrend testing the post spin-off low
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | FedEx Freight is North America's largest LTL carrier, with Priority, Economy, Direct, and Custom Critical services across a broad freight network. | High |
| Moat | Scale, terminal density, service reliability, brand association, and shipment data create real advantages, but pricing remains cyclical in freight recessions. | Medium-high |
| Management | CEO John Smith and CFO Marshall Witt have a clear service and profitable-growth mandate, but standalone capital allocation is still unproven. | Medium |
| Financial trend | Fiscal 2026 revenue was $8.8 billion, down 1.1%, while GAAP operating income fell to $616 million and adjusted operating income was $1.108 billion, down 25.6%. | High |
| Valuation | The stock trades near 23.3x trailing earnings, about 33x the fiscal 2026 adjusted EPS forecast of $4.25, and near 30x estimated free cash flow per share, so the margin of safety depends on margin recovery. | Medium |
| Technical trend | Price is in a short-term downtrend, closing below its developing 20-day average and testing the post spin-off low area near $135. | Medium |
| Risk level | Risks include LTL cycle pressure, Amazon freight expansion, negative pro forma equity, debt from the separation, customer volume weakness, and post-spin execution noise. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | Confidence is medium for business model and source-backed data, lower for normalized earnings and long-term stock returns. | Medium |
| Investment certainty | The current setup is more suitable for watchlist research than a high-certainty buy signal because public standalone evidence is still short. | Medium-low |
FDXF AI stock forecast
The FDXF AI stock forecast uses scenario ranges rather than a single target. The key inputs are normalized EPS after separation costs, LTL demand, operating margin recovery, leverage, and whether the market sustains a premium carrier multiple as the stock trades near its post spin-off low.
$165 to $200
More likely if FDXF grows transition-period revenue above the 4% to 6% guide, protects adjusted operating margin near 12%, converts cash flow well, and the stock re-rates toward the higher end of sell-side targets as LTL pricing firms.
$135 to $170
More likely if the company executes the transition-period guidance with 4% to 6% revenue growth and adjusted operating income near $605 to $645 million, normalized EPS moves toward the fiscal 2027 forecast of about $5, and the market keeps a mid-to-high teens earnings multiple.
$100 to $135
More likely if LTL volumes weaken, freight pricing deteriorates, Amazon freight expansion pressures profitable lanes, or leverage and negative pro forma equity limit capital returns.
FDXF AI technical analysis
FDXF AI technical analysis starts with the $140.53 close on July 31, 2026 and the post spin-off range of roughly $135 to $200. Because this static page does not fetch request-time chart data, moving averages, momentum, and volume should be refreshed in a live chart before trading.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $140.53 | Close used for this page as of the August 2, 2026 data cutoff. |
| Near support | $135 to $138 | Built around the 52-week low of $135.00 and the July 30, 2026 intraday low near $135.64. |
| Near resistance | $144 to $146, then $150 to $153 | The first zone is the recent breakdown area, and the second sits near the developing 10-day and 20-day averages. |
| 20-day moving average | Near $148.50 | Computed from roughly the latest 20 trading days; the close below it keeps the short-term trend weak. |
| 50-day moving average | Still developing | FDXF began regular-way trading on June 1, 2026, so a full 50-day window is only just forming. |
| 200-day moving average | Not yet meaningful | A full 200 trading days of standalone FDXF history were not available at the cutoff. |
| Momentum | Weak short-term tape | The stock sold off from the high-$150s to the $135 to $141 area in late July, with RSI near 42 at the last snapshot. |
| Volume | Around 0.9M to 1.5M shares per day recently | Average volume over 20 days was about 1.14 million shares, enough for fast repricing after news or guidance. |
| Volatility | High monitoring priority | New spin-off stocks can move sharply while index, holder, and analyst ownership settles. |
| Invalidation | Close below $135 | A decisive close below the 52-week low would weaken the support-test setup and open a lower measured range. |
FDXF AI trading strategy
The FDXF AI trading strategy is a rules-based framework for research. It is not personalized advice. Use live chart confirmation, position sizing, and fresh company filings before acting.
Wait for FDXF to reclaim and hold above the $150 to $153 area with expanding volume and improving relative strength versus industrial transports.
A failed reclaim back below support, a fresh break of the $135 low, or a guidance cut should invalidate the setup.
If FDXF holds the $135 to $138 zone without a fundamental downgrade, compare entry risk against the next earnings update, freight-rate data, and debt commentary.
Do not average down unless the maximum loss, thesis review trigger, and stop level are defined before entry.
Track revenue growth versus the 4% to 6% transition guide, adjusted operating margin, cash conversion, capex, leverage, shipment volumes, and customer demand.
Reduce confidence if margin improvement depends mostly on one-time spin-off adjustments rather than durable operating gains.
Investment research summary
Customers pay FDXF to move less-than-truckload freight reliably across North America when speed, network reach, and shipment visibility matter more than the lowest spot price.
The moat comes from terminal density, scale, operating know-how, brand trust, shipment data, and a large vehicle and service network that would take years and heavy capital to replicate.
The thesis fails if freight demand weakens, pricing power erodes, Amazon freight expansion takes profitable lanes, leverage constrains flexibility, separation costs run high, or standalone reporting shows lower normalized earnings quality.
Management has an explicit mandate to run a focused LTL carrier, but investors still need evidence on capital allocation, debt reduction, buybacks, dividends, and acquisition discipline.
LTL freight benefits from supply chain complexity and service differentiation, but it remains exposed to industrial activity, fuel, labor, and inventory cycles.
At roughly $21 billion of market value, FDXF needs durable margin recovery and cash generation to justify a premium multiple after the spin-off debt and negative pro forma equity.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| Latest stock price | $140.53, up 2.17% on July 31, 2026 | StockTitan FDXF quote snapshot | August 2, 2026 |
| Market capitalization | $21.01 billion, verified as $140.53 x 149.5 million shares | StockAnalysis quote page and financial_rigor.py market-cap check | August 2, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding | About 149.5 million | StockAnalysis share statistics | August 2, 2026 |
| 52-week price range | $135.00 to $200.00 | StockAnalysis quote page | August 2, 2026 |
| Spin-off trading date | Regular-way NYSE trading began June 1, 2026 under FDXF | FedEx spin-off approval release | August 2, 2026 |
| Distribution ratio | FedEx holders received one FDXF share for every two FDX shares; FedEx retained 19.9% | FedEx spin-off approval release | August 2, 2026 |
| Fiscal 2026 revenue | $8.8 billion, down 1.1%; Q4 revenue $2.4 billion, up 4.8% | FedEx Freight FY2026 earnings release | August 2, 2026 |
| Fiscal 2026 operating income | $616 million GAAP; $1.108 billion adjusted | FedEx Freight FY2026 earnings release | August 2, 2026 |
| Transition period guidance | 4% to 6% revenue growth, $475M to $515M operating income, $605M to $645M adjusted operating income, diluted EPS of $1.75 to $1.95 before MTM adjustments and $2.40 to $2.60 excluding spin-off costs | FDXF June 25, 2026 earnings release and 8-K exhibit | August 2, 2026 |
| Balance sheet (pro forma) | About $102 million cash and $5.35 billion total debt; negative book equity of about $1.03 billion | StockAnalysis balance sheet data | August 2, 2026 |
| Analyst consensus | Buy from 12 analysts, average 12-month price target of $169.42, with a range of $108 to $200 | StockAnalysis forecast page | August 2, 2026 |
| Network scale | About 40,000 team members, nearly 30,000 vehicles of which nearly 17,000 are tractors, and more than 365 locations | FedEx Freight investor relations company profile | August 2, 2026 |
This FDXF AI stock analysis is for informational and educational use only. It is not investment advice, a recommendation, or a promise of future returns. Forecast scenarios are based on available public data as of the cutoff date and may be wrong.
Design trading strategies visually with 10+ indicators. Set entry/exit conditions and risk management, then generate Pine Script code with no coding required.
Filter and discover stocks based on market cap, dividend yield, P/E ratio, sector, and more. Screen thousands of stocks with real-time data.
Smart AI-driven stock selection with fundamental screening, analyst estimates, and key metrics. Filter by P/E, market cap, dividends, and more.
