Expeditors International of Washington, Inc. research snapshot
EXPD AI stock analysis currently reads Expeditors International as a disciplined, non-asset-based global logistics operator with high returns on equity, net cash, durable customer relationships, and strong execution in customs brokerage and airfreight. The caution is price: after a strong one-year move, the stock already reflects a resilient logistics cycle, tariff-driven brokerage complexity, and continued buybacks. The EXPD AI stock forecast is scenario-based rather than a precise price prediction, and the setup needs earnings growth to keep pace with a mid-20s earnings multiple.
Current price
$165.74
Market cap
$21.68 billion verified market cap
AI score
64 / 100
Rating
High-quality logistics compounder, but valuation limits margin of safety
Trend status
Constructive trend above major moving averages, close to the 52-week high area
Data cutoff (updated weekly)
July 8, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Expeditors earns fees and spreads by coordinating airfreight, ocean freight, customs brokerage, order management, distribution, and related logistics services through a non-asset-based model. | High |
| Moat | The moat comes from global office density, customer workflows, compliance expertise, carrier relationships, trade data, and a strong operating culture, but freight forwarding remains competitive. | Medium-high |
| Management | CEO Daniel R. Wall is a long-tenured Expeditors executive, and the company retains a profit-linked compensation culture that aligns local managers with operating income. | High |
| Financial trend | FY2025 revenue rose to $11.069 billion and net income to common shareholders was $810.3 million. Q1 2026 revenue rose 4% to $2.783 billion and EPS rose 16% to $1.71. | High |
| Valuation | At $165.74 and TTM EPS near $6.19, EXPD trades near 26.78x earnings and 23.54x free cash flow, leaving a moderate but not wide margin of safety. | Medium-high |
| Technical trend | The stock trades above key moving averages and near the $168.52 52-week high, with short-term resistance in the $168 to $172 zone. | Medium |
| Risk level | Key risks are airfreight and ocean rate swings, weaker global trade, tariff normalization, technology-customer demand changes, wage inflation, and multiple compression. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | Descriptive data confidence is high because company filings, company releases, NYSE, and StockAnalysis data are consistent. Return confidence is lower because future freight demand is cyclical. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | EXPD looks like a high-quality logistics franchise, but the current price is closer to fair value than a clear bargain under the tested scenarios. | Medium |
EXPD AI stock forecast
The EXPD AI stock forecast uses scenario math around the $165.74 price reference, TTM EPS of about $6.19, and a three-year earnings multiple framework. The audited model produced a bearish area near $104.90, a base area near $167.10, and a bullish area near $210.50 before dividends.
$200 to $215
More likely if airfreight demand from technology customers stays firm, customs brokerage complexity remains high, ocean weakness stabilizes, EPS compounds near high single digits, and investors keep paying a premium multiple for net-cash logistics quality.
$160 to $175
More likely if EPS grows near low to mid single digits, customs and airfreight offset ocean pressure, buybacks continue, and the market values EXPD around a mid-20s earnings multiple.
$100 to $115
More likely if global trade slows, tariff complexity fades, air and ocean rates normalize lower, labor costs pressure margins, or the stock re-rates toward a high-teens earnings multiple.
EXPD AI technical analysis
EXPD AI technical analysis is constructive as of the July 8, 2026 cutoff. Investing.com showed the stock above 5-day, 50-day, and 200-day moving averages, while Barchart listed near support at $165.10 and resistance at $168.33, $170.04, and $171.56. The trend is positive, but the stock is close to its 52-week high, so breakout confirmation matters.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $165.74 | Recent quote reference used for market-cap and valuation verification on July 8, 2026. |
| Immediate support | $163.50 to $165.10 | This zone overlaps Barchart support levels and the short moving-average area reported by technical data providers. |
| Deeper support | $161 to $162 | This area overlaps Investing.com 50-day and 200-day moving-average references, which matter for trend-following invalidation. |
| Near resistance | $168 to $172 | Barchart listed resistance at $168.33, $170.04, and $171.56, while the 52-week high was near $168.52 in recent quote data. |
| Moving averages | 5-day about $163 to $167, 50-day about $162, 200-day about $162 | The common technical signal is that price is above major moving averages, but the exact figures update daily by provider. |
| Momentum | Positive but extended | The stock is up sharply over the past year and near the high, so new entries depend on confirmation rather than chasing the first breakout tick. |
| Volume | Average volume near 1.37 million shares | NYSE and MarketBeat quote data show liquidity near the large-cap range, but confirmation should use volume relative to the latest 20-day average. |
| Volatility | Earnings and trade-policy sensitivity | The next estimated earnings date in early August 2026 and tariff or shipping disruptions can move the stock more than normal daily noise. |
| Invalidation | Close below $161 | A close below the 50-day and 200-day area would weaken the current trend framework and shift attention to risk control. |
EXPD AI trading strategy
The EXPD AI trading strategy below is a rules-based research framework, not personal financial advice. It combines logistics-cycle evidence, valuation discipline, technical levels, and source-backed business checks.
Watch for EXPD to break and hold above the $168 to $172 resistance area while Q2 results confirm resilient airfreight, customs brokerage strength, and stable operating margins.
A failed breakout back below $165 or a close below the $161 to $162 moving-average area should reduce setup confidence.
If EXPD pulls back toward $161 to $165 without a deterioration in volumes, pricing, cash generation, or tariff-driven brokerage demand, compare the reset with the base-case valuation range.
Do not treat a pullback as benign if ocean weakness spreads to airfreight, customs demand reverses, or operating income starts falling faster than revenue.
Track airfreight tonnage, ocean container volume, customs brokerage revenue, operating margin, cash generation, share repurchases, headcount growth, and commentary on tariffs, geopolitical disruption, and technology-customer demand.
Position sizing should reflect that EXPD is a cyclical logistics stock with premium valuation, not a guaranteed compounder at any entry price.
Investment research summary
Customers pay Expeditors because global trade is complex. The company helps shippers move goods across borders, modes, carriers, customs regimes, and disruption events without owning planes or ships.
The moat is strongest in operating culture, branch-level incentives, customs know-how, global office density, carrier relationships, and embedded customer workflows. It is weaker where freight forwarding becomes price-based procurement.
The thesis fails if global trade slows, technology-customer demand cools, tariff complexity reverses, ocean overcapacity pressures pricing, or investors stop assigning a premium multiple to cyclical logistics earnings.
Daniel R. Wall joined Expeditors in 1987 and became CEO after decades inside the company. The key management test is whether the long-standing profit-linked culture can keep producing disciplined growth after founder-era advantages fade.
Expeditors benefits from complex supply chains, customs compliance, nearshoring, e-commerce, technology hardware flows, and geopolitical disruption. The offset is that freight volumes, rates, and customer shipping behavior remain cyclical.
At about 26.78x TTM EPS and 23.54x free cash flow, EXPD offers quality but not a deep discount. The tested base case sits close to the current price, so margin of safety depends on faster earnings growth or a better entry price.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| EXPD quote reference | $165.74 recent price reference on July 8, 2026 | StockTitan EXPD quote summary | July 8, 2026 |
| Market capitalization verification | $21.68 billion calculated from $165.74 x 130.791 million shares | Pineify financial_rigor.py, NYSE, and StockAnalysis statistics | July 8, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding | 130.79 million shares outstanding | NYSE EXPD quote and StockAnalysis EXPD statistics | July 8, 2026 |
| FY2025 revenue and net income | $11.069 billion revenue and $810.3 million net income to common shareholders | Expeditors 2025 Form 10-K and StockAnalysis financials | July 8, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 revenue and EPS | $2.783 billion revenue, $229.6 million net earnings to shareholders, and $1.71 diluted EPS | Expeditors Q1 2026 earnings release | July 8, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 segment trend | Airfreight revenue up 14%, ocean revenue down 23%, customs brokerage and other services revenue up 17% | Expeditors Q1 2026 Form 10-Q | July 8, 2026 |
| Cash and debt context | $1.316 billion cash and equivalents at March 31, 2026, with no long-term debt other than recorded lease liabilities | Expeditors Q1 2026 Form 10-Q | July 8, 2026 |
| Valuation ratios | 26.78x PE, 1.94x sales, 9.58x book, 23.55x FCF, and 0.98% dividend yield | StockAnalysis EXPD statistics and Pineify valuation verification | July 8, 2026 |
| Management and incentive model | Daniel R. Wall is CEO, and company filings describe profit-linked management compensation tied to business-unit operating income | Expeditors 2025 Form 10-K and Q1 2026 Form 10-Q | July 8, 2026 |
| Technical trend data | Price above major moving averages, support near $165.10, resistance near $168.33 to $171.56, and 52-week high near $168.52 | Investing.com, Barchart, MarketBeat, and ChartMill technical pages | July 8, 2026 |
This EXPD AI stock analysis is for informational and educational use only. It is not investment advice, a recommendation, or a guarantee of future returns. Forecast ranges are scenario estimates based on available public data as of July 8, 2026, and they can be wrong if fundamentals, market prices, freight conditions, trade policy, or investor sentiment change.
