Expeditors International of Washington, Inc. research snapshot
EXPD AI stock analysis currently reads Expeditors International as a disciplined, non-asset-based global logistics operator with net cash, high returns on invested capital, a 31-year dividend record, and structural tailwinds from AI infrastructure shipments and tariff-driven customs complexity. The caution is price: after a roughly 50% move over the past year and a run to $183.52, the stock trades near 27 times trailing earnings, above the average analyst price target, with Q2 2026 results still ahead. The EXPD AI stock forecast is scenario-based rather than a precise price prediction, and the setup now depends on earnings growth catching up with the multiple.
Current price
$167.89
Market cap
$21.96 billion verified market cap
AI score
63 / 100
Rating
High-quality net-cash logistics franchise, but valuation is stretched after a sharp run-up
Trend status
Longer-term uptrend above the 50-day and 200-day averages, with a short-term pullback from a recent $183.52 high
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Expeditors earns fees and spreads by coordinating airfreight, ocean freight, customs brokerage, order management, distribution, and related logistics services through a non-asset-based model. | High |
| Moat | The moat comes from global office density, customer workflows, compliance expertise, carrier relationships, trade data, and a strong operating culture, but freight forwarding remains competitive. | Medium-high |
| Management | CEO Daniel R. Wall took over on April 1, 2025 after 38 years in the industry, CFO David A. Hackett started October 1, 2025, and the profit-linked compensation culture that aligns local managers with operating income remains intact. | High |
| Financial trend | FY2025 revenue rose 4% to $11.069 billion with net income flat at $810.3 million. Q1 2026 revenue rose 4% to $2.783 billion, operating income rose 11% to $294.8 million, and diluted EPS rose 16% to $1.71. | High |
| Valuation | At $167.89 and TTM EPS near $6.19, EXPD trades near 27.13x earnings and 23.85x free cash flow, above the average analyst price target, leaving a thin margin of safety after a strong run. | Medium-high |
| Technical trend | The stock holds above the 50-day and 200-day averages but has pulled back below the 5-day and 20-day averages from a $183.52 52-week high, with RSI near 44.7. | Medium |
| Risk level | Key risks are airfreight and ocean rate swings, weaker global trade, tariff normalization, technology-customer demand changes, wage inflation, multiple compression, and a crowded bullish positioning after a 50% year. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | Descriptive data confidence is high because company filings, company releases, NYSE, StockAnalysis, and Barchart data are consistent. Return confidence is lower because future freight demand is cyclical and Q2 2026 earnings are pending. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | EXPD is a high-quality logistics franchise, but after the recent run the current price leaves a limited margin of safety under the tested scenarios, and analyst consensus is Hold. | Medium |
EXPD AI stock forecast
The EXPD AI stock forecast uses scenario math around the $167.89 price reference, TTM EPS of about $6.19, and a three-year earnings multiple framework. The audited model produced a bearish area near $99, a base area near $160, and a bullish area near $195 before dividends, and the actual ranges are shown below.
$190 to $205
More likely if airfreight demand from AI infrastructure and technology customers stays firm, customs brokerage complexity remains high, ocean weakness stabilizes, EPS compounds near high single digits, and investors keep paying a premium multiple for a net-cash logistics operator with a dividend aristocrat record.
$155 to $170
More likely if EPS grows near low single digits, customs and airfreight offset ocean pressure, buybacks continue, and the market values EXPD around a low-20s earnings multiple, which is roughly what the average analyst price target implies.
$95 to $110
More likely if global trade slows, tariff complexity fades, air and ocean rates normalize lower, labor costs pressure margins, or the stock re-rates toward a mid-teens earnings multiple after a rally that already happened.
EXPD AI technical analysis
EXPD AI technical analysis is mixed as of the August 2, 2026 cutoff. Price closed at $167.89 on July 31, 2026, above the 50-day average near $166.42 and the 200-day average near $151.46, but below the 5-day average near $169.56 and the 20-day average near $173.36 after a pullback from a $183.52 52-week high. Barchart showed RSI near 44.7 and ChartMill rated the short-term trend negative, so the longer uptrend is intact but the near-term move is corrective.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $167.89 | NYSE close on July 31, 2026, used as the quote reference for market-cap and valuation verification. |
| Immediate support | $165.50 to $166.50 | This zone overlaps the 50-day moving average near $166.42 and the lower end of the July 31 session range. |
| Deeper support | $156 to $158 | This area overlaps the 100-day moving average near $156.75 reported by Barchart and StockAnalysis. |
| Near resistance | $169 to $174 | The 5-day average near $169.56 and the 20-day average near $173.36 cap the short-term pullback zone. |
| Upper resistance | $183.52 | This is the 52-week high. Reclaiming the $173 area would be needed before a test of the high looks realistic. |
| Moving averages | 5-day about $169.56, 20-day about $173.36, 50-day about $166.42, 200-day about $151.46 | Price sits below the short averages but above the 50-day and 200-day averages, a classic pullback-within-uptrend picture. |
| Momentum | Short-term corrective, longer-term positive | Barchart RSI near 44.7 and ChartMill negative short-term trend suggest the move off the high is not yet resolved. |
| Volume | Average volume near 1.22 million shares | The July 31 session traded about 1.33 million shares, close to the 20-day average, so the pullback has not yet triggered heavy selling. |
| Volatility | Earnings and trade-policy sensitivity | Q2 2026 results are scheduled for August 4, 2026, and tariff or shipping disruptions can move the stock more than normal daily noise. |
| Invalidation | Close below $156 | A close below the 100-day and 200-day area would shift the picture from pullback-within-uptrend to a more serious correction and increase risk-control focus. |
EXPD AI trading strategy
The EXPD AI trading strategy below is a rules-based research framework, not personal financial advice. It combines logistics-cycle evidence, valuation discipline, technical levels, and source-backed business checks.
Watch for EXPD to reclaim and hold the $169 to $174 resistance area while Q2 results confirm resilient airfreight, customs brokerage strength, and stable operating margins. A confirmed move back toward the $183.52 high would need volume support and positive guidance.
A failed recovery back below $165.50 or a close below the $156 to $158 moving-average area should reduce setup confidence.
If EXPD pulls back toward $156 to $165.50 without a deterioration in volumes, pricing, cash generation, or tariff-driven brokerage demand, compare the reset with the base-case valuation range and the average analyst price target.
Do not treat a pullback as benign if ocean weakness spreads to airfreight, customs demand reverses, or operating income starts falling faster than revenue.
Track airfreight tonnage, ocean container volume, customs brokerage revenue, operating margin, cash generation, share repurchases, headcount growth, and commentary on tariffs, geopolitical disruption, and AI-infrastructure demand from technology customers.
Position sizing should reflect that EXPD is a cyclical logistics stock that has already rallied sharply, so chasing price after the move carries higher risk than it did earlier in the year.
Investment research summary
Customers pay Expeditors because global trade is complex. The company helps shippers move goods across borders, modes, carriers, customs regimes, and disruption events without owning planes or ships.
The moat is strongest in operating culture, branch-level incentives, customs know-how, global office density, carrier relationships, and embedded customer workflows. It is weaker where freight forwarding becomes price-based procurement.
The thesis fails if global trade slows, technology-customer demand cools, tariff complexity reverses, ocean overcapacity pressures pricing, or investors stop assigning a premium multiple to cyclical logistics earnings after the stock already ran up.
Daniel R. Wall became CEO on April 1, 2025 after decades inside the company, and David A. Hackett became CFO on October 1, 2025. The key test is whether the long-standing profit-linked culture can keep producing disciplined growth through the leadership transition.
Expeditors benefits from complex supply chains, customs compliance, nearshoring, e-commerce, technology hardware flows, AI infrastructure shipments, and geopolitical disruption. The offset is that freight volumes, rates, and customer shipping behavior remain cyclical.
At about 27.13x trailing EPS and 23.85x free cash flow, EXPD trades above the average analyst price target after a 50% year. The tested base case sits below the current price, so margin of safety depends on faster earnings growth or a better entry price.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| EXPD quote reference | $167.89 NYSE close on July 31, 2026 | StockTitan EXPD quote summary and StockAnalysis quote | July 31, 2026 |
| Market capitalization verification | $21.96 billion calculated from $167.89 x 130.79 million shares | Pineify financial_rigor.py, NYSE, and StockAnalysis statistics | August 2, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding | 130.79 million shares outstanding | NYSE EXPD quote and StockAnalysis EXPD statistics | July 31, 2026 |
| FY2025 revenue, operating income, and net income | $11.069 billion revenue, $1.053 billion operating income, and $810.3 million net income to shareholders, with diluted EPS of $5.95 | Expeditors 2025 Form 10-K | August 2, 2026 |
| FY2025 segment trend | Airfreight revenue up 9%, ocean revenue down 11%, customs brokerage and other services revenue up 13% | Expeditors 2025 Form 10-K | August 2, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 revenue, operating income, and EPS | $2.783 billion revenue, $294.8 million operating income, $229.6 million net earnings to shareholders, and $1.71 diluted EPS | Expeditors Q1 2026 earnings release and Q1 2026 Form 10-Q | August 2, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 segment trend | Airfreight revenue up 14% on 5% tonnage growth, ocean revenue down 23% on 4% lower container volume, customs brokerage and other services revenue up 17% | Expeditors Q1 2026 Form 10-Q | August 2, 2026 |
| Cash and debt context | $1.316 billion cash and cash equivalents at March 31, 2026, with no significant debt other than recorded lease liabilities | Expeditors Q1 2026 Form 10-Q | August 2, 2026 |
| Valuation ratios | 27.13x PE, 1.96x sales, 9.70x book, 23.85x P/FCF, and 0.92% dividend yield | StockAnalysis EXPD statistics and Pineify valuation verification | July 31, 2026 |
| Dividend and buyback record | Annual dividend of $1.54 per share with 31 years of increases, a $3 billion share repurchase authorization announced February 2026, and about $288 million of stock repurchased in Q1 2026 | Company releases, Q1 2026 Form 10-Q, and MarketBeat | August 2, 2026 |
| Management and incentive model | Daniel R. Wall is President and CEO effective April 1, 2025, David A. Hackett is CFO effective October 1, 2025, and company filings describe profit-linked management compensation tied to operating income | Expeditors 2026 Proxy Statement and 2025 Form 10-K | August 2, 2026 |
| Analyst consensus and price target | Consensus rating Hold with an average price target near $157.14 on StockAnalysis, below the current price | StockAnalysis EXPD forecast and MarketBeat EXPD forecast | July 31, 2026 |
| Technical trend data | Price above the 50-day average near $166.42 and 200-day average near $151.46 but below the 5-day near $169.56 and 20-day near $173.36, after a $183.52 52-week high | Barchart, ChartMill, StockAnalysis, and MarketBeat technical pages | July 31, 2026 |
This EXPD AI stock analysis is for informational and educational use only. It is not investment advice, a recommendation, or a guarantee of future returns. Forecast ranges are scenario estimates based on available public data as of August 2, 2026, and they can be wrong if fundamentals, market prices, freight conditions, trade policy, or investor sentiment change.
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