Four Corners Property Trust research snapshot
FCPT AI stock analysis currently reads Four Corners Property Trust as a specialized net lease REIT with a restaurant and food-service property portfolio, a monthly dividend yielding about 5.87%, improving 2026 results, and meaningful exposure to restaurant industry trends, tenant credit, interest rates, and property acquisition competition. At the July 13, 2026 cutoff, FCPT closed at $24.96, market capitalization was about $2.74 billion, and the stock traded near 22.5x trailing EPS and about 14.3x estimated price to FFO. The AI stock forecast is scenario-based because the investment case depends on portfolio occupancy, rent recapture, acquisition yields, financing costs, tenant credit in the restaurant industry, and REIT valuation multiples. This page is informational research and not investment advice.
Current price
$24.96
Market cap
$2.74 billion
AI score
66 / 100
Rating
Restaurant-focused net lease REIT with high dividend yield, steady rent collection, moderate growth, and tenant concentration risk
Trend status
Trading near the 50-day moving average, below the 200-day moving average
Data cutoff (updated weekly)
July 13, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | FCPT is paid to own and lease restaurant and food-service properties under long-term net leases. FY2025 revenue was about $294.13 million, net income about $112.36 million, and EBITDA about $230.70 million with a 76.25% EBITDA margin. | High |
| Moat | The moat is moderate and comes from restaurant property expertise, tenant relationships, long-term net lease structures, and public-market capital access. It is weaker than a monopoly moat because restaurant real estate is a competitive space where other net lease REITs and private capital compete for similar acquisition targets. | Medium |
| Management | CEO William H. Lenehan has led FCPT since its spin-off from Darden Restaurants in 2015, focusing on steady portfolio growth, high occupancy, and monthly dividend growth. The capital allocation test is whether acquisition yields consistently exceed the blended cost of debt and equity capital. | Medium-high |
| Financial trend | Revenue has grown steadily from the low-200 millions at spin-off to $294.13 million in FY2025. Q1 2026 revenue was $78.17 million and net income was $30.33 million (EPS $0.28), continuing the growth trajectory. Net debt to EBITDA is manageable but requires monitoring given the rate environment. | High |
| Valuation | At $24.96, FCPT trades near 22.5x trailing EPS, about 14.3x estimated price to FFO, and offers a 5.87% dividend yield. The verified scenario model produced a base case near $28.30, with upside potential if growth accelerates and downside if restaurant tenant credit or rate conditions worsen. | Medium-high |
| Technical trend | FCPT is trading near the 50-day moving average but below the 200-day moving average. The stock shows a mixed technical picture with support near $23 to $24 and resistance near $27 to $28, with low beta of 0.41 indicating reduced volatility. | Medium |
| Risk level | Risk is moderate-to-elevated for a net lease REIT. Key risks include restaurant industry cyclicality, tenant credit concentration, minimum wage and food-cost inflation, interest rate sensitivity, acquisition competition, and equity dilution risk from ATM programs. | Medium |
| AI confidence | High for company-reported FY2025 and Q1 2026 financial data, market cap math, shares, valuation ratios, dividend data, and technical inputs; medium for future restaurant tenant credit, acquisition pipeline, cap rate trends, and capital costs. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | Medium-low certainty. FCPT has a durable income model and a specialized restaurant focus, but the current case depends on steady FFO growth and a stable rate environment, with limited margin of safety at the current dividend yield. | Medium-low |
FCPT AI stock forecast
The FCPT AI stock forecast uses EPS and estimated FFO projections, valuation multiples, portfolio occupancy, rent recapture, acquisition yields, financing costs, dividend coverage, and technical trend rather than a single deterministic price prediction. The bullish case becomes more likely if FCPT sustains high occupancy, acquisition volume remains productive, interest rates move lower, and restaurant tenant credit stays healthy. The bearish case becomes more likely if restaurant industry conditions weaken, rates rise, tenant credit deteriorates, acquisition spreads narrow, or the market assigns a lower REIT multiple.
$33 to $39
More likely if FCPT compounds EPS near 8% annually, portfolio occupancy stays above 99%, the market applies a higher REIT multiple closer to 26x EPS, acquisition volume accelerates, and the rate environment is supportive. The verified three-scenario model produced about $36.40 using 8% EPS growth and a 26x terminal multiple.
$27 to $30
More likely if FCPT tracks mid-single-digit EPS growth, portfolio occupancy remains near 98%, rent recapture stays above 100%, and the stock trades near historical average multiples. The verified model base case was about $28.30.
$19 to $23
More likely if EPS growth stalls, restaurant tenant credit weakens, rates or cap rates rise, or FCPT is valued closer to an 18x EPS multiple reflecting higher risk. The verified bear model produced about $21.20.
FCPT AI technical analysis
FCPT AI technical analysis starts from the $24.96 close. The stock is trading near the 50-day moving average but below the 200-day moving average, indicating a mixed to cautious medium-term technical posture. RSI and momentum signals should be checked against Q2 2026 earnings on July 29, 2026, rate moves, REIT fund flows, dividend announcements, and tenant credit commentary. Technical levels should be validated with live data before trading decisions.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $24.96 | Latest verified close used for this page, reported for the July 10, 2026 close. |
| Near support | $23.50 to $24.50 | This zone represents the recent trading range low. Holding it keeps the short-term structure from deteriorating further. |
| Secondary support | $22 to $23 | This area corresponds to prior reaction lows. A break below this zone would indicate a more serious downtrend for this net lease REIT. |
| Resistance | $27 to $28 | This area overlaps analyst target context and the upper part of the prior trading range. A breakout above $28 would need volume and positive sector catalyst support. |
| 50-day moving average | Near $25.00 to $25.50 | FCPT is trading near or slightly below this level, so a clean reclaim of the 50-day MA would improve short-term trend confidence. |
| 200-day moving average | Near $26.50 to $27.50 | FCPT is below the 200-day moving average, which is a cautionary signal for medium-term trend followers. A reclaim would be a constructive development. |
| Momentum | RSI near 45 to 50 | RSI is in the neutral zone, not oversold or overbought, meaning momentum does not yet signal a clear directional edge. |
| Volume | Below-average daily volume | FCPT is a smaller-cap REIT with lower liquidity, meaning price moves can be amplified on lighter volume. |
| Volatility | Beta 0.41 | Beta below 1.0 indicates lower correlation to broad market moves, but REIT-specific drawdowns from rate or sector events can still be meaningful. |
| Invalidation | Close below $23 or missed earnings expectations | A break below the $23 support area or weaker-than-expected Q2 2026 results would weaken the base case outlook. |
FCPT AI trading strategy
The FCPT AI trading strategy is a rules-based framework, not personalized advice. It should be monitored through live price, moving averages, Q2 2026 earnings on July 29, 2026, portfolio occupancy, rent recapture, acquisition volume, dividend coverage, debt metrics, and restaurant industry commentary.
Track whether FCPT reclaims the 50-day moving average and then clears the 200-day near $26.50 to $27.50 with improving volume. Confirmation improves if Q2 2026 earnings show continued revenue growth, steady occupancy, and stable or improving guidance.
Reduce confidence if price remains below the 200-day moving average, if volume contracts on up moves, or if restaurant REITs weaken together on consumer spending concerns.
Use pullbacks toward the $23 to $24 support area as a watchlist condition only if dividend coverage, portfolio occupancy, tenant health, and acquisition commentary remain intact.
Do not treat the elevated dividend yield as a valuation floor. Restaurant REITs can face multiple compression even with stable dividends if the market prices in higher tenant credit risk or rate sensitivity.
Track EPS and FFO per share, portfolio occupancy, rent recapture rates, acquisition volume and yields, weighted average lease term, dividend payout ratio, net debt to EBITDA, and tenant concentration in the restaurant industry.
A mix of lower occupancy, weaker rent recapture, rising tenant credit events, narrower acquisition spreads, higher leverage, and a close below $23 would override a bullish chart setup.
Investment research summary
FCPT is paid to own restaurant and food-service real estate and lease it to operators under long-term net leases. Tenants pay rent, property taxes, insurance, and maintenance, while FCPT converts property cash flows into monthly dividends and portfolio growth through acquisitions.
The moat comes from restaurant property expertise, tenant relationships, long-term net lease structures, and public-market capital access. The moat can narrow if restaurant industry headwinds increase tenant credit risk or if capital costs rise faster than acquisition yields.
The thesis can fail if restaurant industry conditions deteriorate, tenant bankruptcies increase, interest rates stay elevated, cap rates reset upward, acquisition spreads compress, equity issuance becomes dilutive, or investors decide that a 5.87% dividend yield does not adequately compensate for the risks in restaurant real estate.
CEO William H. Lenehan has led FCPT since inception in 2015, building a focused restaurant net lease platform with steady portfolio growth and a consistent monthly dividend. The key test is whether management can maintain acquisition discipline and tenant credit standards as competition for net lease assets intensifies.
The long-term trend for restaurant net lease is mixed. Quick-service restaurants have shown resilience, while casual dining faces margin pressure from food costs, labor costs, and changing consumer preferences. The net lease structure provides a buffer, but property-level cash flows ultimately depend on restaurant operator health.
The verified scenario model produced about $36.40 in the bull case, $28.30 in the base case, and $21.20 in the bearish case using EPS as the proxy. At $24.96, FCPT offers a 5.87% dividend yield, but the margin of safety is limited because the yield partially reflects the risks inherent in restaurant-focused REITs rather than a clear undervaluation.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| FCPT price | $24.96 close | TradingView FCPT overview page | July 13, 2026 |
| Market capitalization | $2.74 billion, verified as $24.96 x 109.8 million shares | financial_rigor.py market cap verification | July 13, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding | Approximately 109.8 million shares outstanding | TradingView FCPT overview page | July 13, 2026 |
| FY2025 revenue | $294.13 million, with Real Estate segment at $262.25 million | TradingView FCPT revenue breakdown page | July 13, 2026 |
| FY2025 net income | $112.36 million | TradingView FCPT key stats page | July 13, 2026 |
| FY2025 EBITDA | $230.70 million, 76.25% EBITDA margin | TradingView FCPT overview page | July 13, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 revenue, net income, and EPS | $78.17 million revenue, $30.33 million net income, $0.28 EPS | TradingView FCPT financials page | July 13, 2026 |
| Dividend and yield | Monthly dividend of about $0.122 per share, 5.87% annualized dividend yield | TradingView FCPT dividends page | July 13, 2026 |
| Valuation ratios | 22.34x P/E (TTM), about 14.3x estimated price to FFO, 1.10x estimated P/B, and 5.87% dividend yield | TradingView FCPT overview and financial_rigor.py verification | July 13, 2026 |
| Technical indicators | 50-day MA near $25.00-$25.50, 200-day MA near $26.50-$27.50, beta 0.41 | TradingView FCPT overview page | July 13, 2026 |
| Analyst targets | Analyst price target range of $26.00 to $30.00 | TradingView FCPT forecast page | July 13, 2026 |
| Data source gap | FFO and AFFO per share were estimated rather than sourced from company filings. Balance sheet data (total debt, net debt, book value) and detailed portfolio occupancy metrics were not independently verified from Q1 2026 supplemental. These should be checked against the FCPT investor relations page for the most accurate current data. | TradingView FCPT financials | July 13, 2026 |
This FCPT AI stock analysis page is an informational tool only and is not investment advice, tax advice, or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Forecast ranges are scenarios based on available public data as of July 13, 2026 and may be wrong if financial results, rates, cap rates, restaurant industry conditions, tenant credit, acquisition spreads, financing costs, dividend policy, or market conditions change.
Design trading strategies visually with 10+ indicators. Set entry/exit conditions and risk management, then generate Pine Script code with no coding required.
Filter and discover stocks based on market cap, dividend yield, P/E ratio, sector, and more. Screen thousands of stocks with real-time data.
Smart AI-driven stock selection with fundamental screening, analyst estimates, and key metrics. Filter by P/E, market cap, dividends, and more.
