Four Corners Property Trust research snapshot
FCPT AI stock analysis as of the August 4, 2026 data cutoff reads Four Corners Property Trust as a specialized restaurant and service net lease REIT that just posted the strongest investment activity in its history while the stock gave back part of its July gains after the Q2 2026 report. The stock closed at $25.30 on August 3, 2026, down 0.30 or 1.17% from the $25.60 close on July 31, with a market capitalization near $2.78 billion, matching the $25.30 price times 109.87 million shares outstanding. Q2 2026 revenue was $78.42 million, up 7.66% from the prior year, net income attributable to common shareholders was $29.96 million or $0.27 per diluted share, and AFFO per share was $0.45, up 1.4% from the prior year, with cash rental income up 8.7% to $70.0 million and annualized base rent of $270.5 million. Management reported occupancy above 99.5%, rent collection of 99.7% for the quarter, rent coverage of 5.2x, year-to-date investment volume of $382 million at a blended 6.6% cash cap rate, and the largest acquisition in company history, a 102 property Mission Pet Health portfolio for $268 million that closed early in Q3. FCPT also announced a switch to a monthly dividend with the first monthly payment in August. The stock trades at about 23x trailing earnings, about 14.9x trailing price to FFO, and a 5.80% dividend yield. The AI stock forecast is scenario-based because the investment case depends on acquisition volume, tenant credit in the restaurant and service sectors, Darden renewal rates, cap rates, interest rates, and REIT valuation multiples. This page is informational research and not investment advice.
Current price
$25.30 at the August 3, 2026, 4:00 PM EDT market close, down 0.30 or 1.17% from the $25.60 July 31 close, after opening at $25.49 and trading in a session range of $25.22 to $25.83, with the daily history table confirming the $25.30 close on volume near 753,000 shares
Market cap
$2.78 billion at the August 3, 2026 market close, verified as $25.30 times 109.87 million shares outstanding using the financial_rigor.py market cap check, which matched the StockAnalysis.com reported value within 0.01%
AI score
68 / 100
Rating
Restaurant and service net lease REIT with record investment volume, strong occupancy and rent coverage, and elevated payout and equity dilution
Trend status
Trading above the 50-day and 200-day moving averages near $25.17 and $24.63 but below the 20-day moving average near $25.69 after a post-earnings pullback
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | FCPT is paid to own and lease restaurant and food-service properties under long-term net leases. TTM revenue was about $306.40 million, TTM net income about $118.58 million, and TTM EBITDA about $233.97 million with a 76.36% EBITDA margin, with FY2025 net income of $112.36 million. | High |
| Moat | The moat is moderate and comes from restaurant and service property expertise, tenant relationships, long-term net lease and master lease structures, low-basis underwriting, and public-market capital access. It is weaker than a monopoly moat because other net lease REITs and private capital compete for similar acquisition targets. | Medium |
| Management | CEO William H. Lenehan has led FCPT since its 2015 spin-off from Darden Restaurants. The 2026 record shows year-to-date investment of $382 million, the largest acquisition in company history, $600 million of low-coupon term loans, a switch to a monthly dividend, and insider stock buying. The test is whether acquisition yields stay above the blended cost of debt and equity capital. | Medium-high |
| Financial trend | Revenue grew from $199.38 million in 2021 to $294.13 million in FY2025 and $306.40 million over the trailing twelve months. Q2 2026 revenue was $78.42 million, up 7.66% year over year, net income attributable to common shareholders was $29.96 million, and AFFO per share was $0.45, up 1.4%. Run-rate leverage stays within the stated 5x to 6x range. | High |
| Valuation | At $25.30, FCPT trades near 23.0x trailing EPS, 21.8x forward earnings, 14.9x trailing price to FFO, and a 5.80% dividend yield. The verified scenario model produced a base case near $26.00, with upside if acquisition-driven growth accelerates and downside if tenant credit or rates worsen, while the 9 analyst consensus target is $28.22. | Medium-high |
| Technical trend | FCPT is trading above the 50-day moving average near $25.17 and the 200-day near $24.63 but below the 20-day moving average near $25.69 after the post-earnings pullback. RSI near 46.46 is neutral, and the 52-week range is $22.78 to $26.86. | Medium |
| Risk level | Risk is moderate-to-elevated for a net lease REIT. Key risks include restaurant and service industry cyclicality, Darden and tenant credit concentration, a GAAP payout ratio near 154%, equity dilution from ATM and forward programs, interest-rate sensitivity, elevated short interest near 3.57% of shares outstanding, and cap rate and acquisition competition. | Medium |
| AI confidence | High for company-reported FY2025 and Q2 2026 financial data, market cap math, shares, valuation ratios, dividend data, and technical inputs; medium for future tenant credit, Darden renewal rates, acquisition pipeline, cap rate trends, and capital costs. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | Medium-low certainty. FCPT has a durable income model and the strongest investment momentum in its history, but the current case depends on steady FFO and AFFO growth, low dilution, and a stable rate environment, with limited margin of safety at the current dividend yield. | Medium-low |
FCPT AI stock forecast
The FCPT AI stock forecast uses EPS and FFO projections, valuation multiples, portfolio occupancy, rent recapture, acquisition yields, financing costs, dividend coverage, and technical trend rather than a single deterministic price prediction. The verified three-scenario model using $1.10 trailing EPS produced about $33.30 in the bull case, $26.00 in the base case, and $18.70 in the bearish case over three years. The bullish case becomes more likely if FCPT sustains record acquisition volume, keeps occupancy above 99%, maintains rent coverage above 5x, and benefits from lower rates. The bearish case becomes more likely if restaurant industry conditions weaken, Darden renewal rates disappoint, tenant credit deteriorates, cap rates rise, acquisition spreads narrow, or the market assigns a lower REIT multiple.
$32 to $36
More likely if FCPT compounds EPS or FFO near 8% annually through the Mission Pet Health portfolio and continued record investment volume, portfolio occupancy stays above 99%, rent coverage stays above 5x, the market applies a higher REIT multiple closer to 24x EPS, and the rate environment is supportive. The verified three-scenario model produced about $33.30 using 8% EPS growth and a 24x terminal multiple.
$26 to $30
More likely if FCPT tracks mid-single-digit FFO and AFFO growth, portfolio occupancy remains near 99.5%, Darden renewals and rent recapture stay strong, and the stock trades near current multiples of about 21x to 23x EPS. The verified model base case was about $26.00, while the 9 analyst consensus target is $28.22.
$18 to $21
More likely if EPS or FFO growth stalls, restaurant or service tenant credit weakens, Darden renewal rates disappoint, rates or cap rates rise, equity dilution accelerates, or FCPT is valued closer to a 17x EPS multiple reflecting higher risk. The verified bear model produced about $18.70.
FCPT AI technical analysis
FCPT AI technical analysis starts from the $25.30 August 3, 2026 close. The stock is above the 50-day moving average near $25.17 and the 200-day near $24.63 but below the 20-day moving average near $25.69, indicating a mixed near-term posture after the Q2 report pulled the stock back from the July highs around $26.30 to $26.86. RSI near 46.46 is neutral. Technical levels should be validated with live data, and the picture should be rechecked around the Q3 2026 earnings date in late October 2026, rate moves, REIT fund flows, dividend announcements, and tenant credit commentary.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $25.30 | StockAnalysis.com real-time quote at the August 3, 2026, 4:00 PM EDT market close, down 0.30 or 1.17% from the $25.60 July 31 close after opening at $25.49 and trading in a session range of $25.22 to $25.83; the daily history table confirms the $25.30 close on volume near 753,000 shares. |
| Near support | $24.90 to $25.20 | This zone combines the July pullback lows and the 50-day moving average near $25.17. Holding it keeps the short-term structure from deteriorating further. |
| Secondary support | $24.40 to $24.70 | This area corresponds to the June reaction lows and the 200-day moving average near $24.63. A break below this zone would indicate a more serious medium-term downtrend for this net lease REIT. |
| Resistance | $26.30 to $26.50 | This zone overlaps the July closing highs of $26.33 to $26.49. A breakout above $26.50 with volume would reopen a move toward the 52-week high. |
| 52-week high | $26.86 | Set intraday on July 17, 2026, before the post-earnings pullback. This remains the upside reference for a renewed trend. |
| 20-day moving average | $25.69 | Computed as the simple average of the twenty closing prices through August 3, 2026 in the StockAnalysis.com daily price history. FCPT is below this level, which keeps the near-term trend cautious. |
| 50-day moving average | $25.17 | StockAnalysis.com statistics reported the 50-day moving average near $25.17 on August 3, 2026, below the current price and a first pullback support reference. |
| 200-day moving average | $24.63 | StockAnalysis.com statistics reported the 200-day trend line near $24.63 on August 3, 2026, below the current price and confirming the longer-term uptrend is intact. |
| Momentum | RSI near 46.46 | The 14-day RSI on StockAnalysis.com statistics on August 3, 2026 is in the neutral zone, not oversold or overbought, meaning momentum does not yet signal a clear directional edge. |
| Volume | About 720,000 average shares | StockAnalysis.com statistics listed 20-day average volume near 719,900 shares on August 3, 2026. The July 29 earnings session traded about 1.10 million shares and the July 30 post-report session about 848,000 shares, above average, so watch for volume confirmation on any breakout. |
| Volatility | Beta 0.81 | Beta below 1.0 indicates lower correlation to broad market moves, but REIT-specific drawdowns from rate or sector events can still be meaningful. |
| Invalidation | Close below $24.60 or weaker Q3 2026 results | A break below the $24.40 to $24.70 support cluster, which includes the 200-day moving average, or weaker-than-expected Q3 2026 results would weaken the medium-term outlook. |
FCPT AI trading strategy
The FCPT AI trading strategy is a rules-based framework, not personalized advice. It should be monitored through live price, moving averages, the Q3 2026 earnings report expected in late October 2026, portfolio occupancy, rent collection, rent coverage, acquisition volume and cap rates, dividend coverage, leverage, and restaurant and service industry commentary.
Track whether FCPT reclaims the 20-day moving average near $25.69 and then clears the $26.30 to $26.50 resistance with improving volume, with the 200-day trend line near $24.63 still rising. Confirmation improves if Q3 2026 earnings show continued revenue and AFFO growth, steady occupancy, and continued productive investment activity.
Reduce confidence if price stays below the 20-day moving average, if volume contracts on up moves, or if a close below $24.60 breaks the 200-day moving average and the June support cluster.
Use pullbacks toward the $24.90 to $25.20 support area, which includes the 50-day moving average near $25.17, as a watchlist condition only if rent coverage, portfolio occupancy, tenant health, dividend coverage, and acquisition commentary remain intact.
Do not treat the 5.80% dividend yield as a valuation floor. Restaurant and service REITs can face multiple compression even with stable dividends if the market prices in higher tenant credit risk, equity dilution, or rate sensitivity.
Track FFO and AFFO per share, portfolio occupancy and rent collection, annualized base rent, rent coverage, Darden renewal rates, acquisition volume and cap rates, weighted average lease term, dividend payout ratio, leverage against the 5x to 6x target, and tenant concentration outside casual dining.
A mix of lower occupancy, weaker rent recapture, rising tenant credit events, narrower acquisition spreads, higher leverage, faster share dilution, and a close below $24.60 would override a bullish chart setup.
Investment research summary
FCPT is paid to own restaurant and service real estate and lease it to operators under long-term net leases. Tenants pay rent, property taxes, insurance, and maintenance, while FCPT converts property cash flows into monthly dividends and portfolio growth through acquisitions.
The moat comes from restaurant and service property expertise, tenant relationships, long-term net lease and master lease structures, low-basis underwriting, and public-market capital access. The moat can narrow if restaurant industry headwinds increase tenant credit risk or if capital costs rise faster than acquisition yields.
The thesis can fail if restaurant or service industry conditions deteriorate, tenant bankruptcies increase, Darden renewal rates disappoint, interest rates stay elevated, cap rates reset upward, acquisition spreads compress, equity issuance becomes dilutive, payout stays near 154% of earnings, or investors decide that a 5.80% dividend yield does not compensate for the risks in restaurant and service real estate.
CEO William H. Lenehan has led FCPT since inception in 2015 and has delivered record investment volume, the largest acquisition in company history, low-coupon term loan refinancings, a monthly dividend transition, and insider stock buying. The key test is whether management maintains acquisition discipline and tenant credit standards as competition for net lease assets intensifies and whether FFO growth outpaces share dilution.
The long-term trend for restaurant net lease is mixed. Quick-service restaurants have shown resilience, while casual dining faces margin pressure from food costs, labor costs, and changing consumer preferences. FCPT has broadened its mix, and pro forma for Mission Pet Health roughly 41% of rent now comes from outside casual dining, including medical retail at about 16%, auto service at about 13%, and quick service restaurants at about 10%.
The verified scenario model produced about $33.30 in the bull case, $26.00 in the base case, and $18.70 in the bearish case using trailing EPS as the proxy. At $25.30, FCPT offers a 5.80% dividend yield and trades near the 9 analyst consensus target of $28.22, so the margin of safety is limited because the yield partially reflects dilution and the risks inherent in restaurant-focused REITs rather than a clear undervaluation.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| FCPT price | $25.30 at the August 3, 2026, 4:00 PM EDT market close, down 0.30 or 1.17% from the $25.60 July 31 close, after opening at $25.49 and trading in a session range of $25.22 to $25.83, with the daily history table confirming the $25.30 close on volume near 753,000 shares | StockAnalysis.com real-time quote and daily price history | August 4, 2026 |
| Market capitalization | Near $2.78 billion, reported by StockAnalysis.com at the August 3, 2026 market close and verified as $25.30 times 109.87 million shares outstanding with a 0.01% deviation in the financial_rigor.py market cap check | StockAnalysis.com quote and financial_rigor.py verification | August 4, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding | 109.87 million shares outstanding, up 9.24% year over year, with a float of 108.33 million shares and institutions holding about 104.29% of shares outstanding | StockAnalysis.com statistics | August 4, 2026 |
| TTM revenue and net income | $306.40 million trailing twelve month revenue and $118.58 million TTM net income, with TTM EPS of $1.10 on the statistics page and $1.11 on the financials page | StockAnalysis.com statistics and financials | August 4, 2026 |
| FY2025 revenue | $294.13 million, up 9.72% from $268.07 million, with Real Estate Operations at $262.25 million and Restaurant Operations at $31.48 million | StockAnalysis.com financials | August 4, 2026 |
| FY2025 net income | $112.36 million, up 11.84% from $100.47 million, matching SEC EDGAR XBRL for the fiscal year ended December 31, 2025 | StockAnalysis.com financials and SEC EDGAR XBRL | August 4, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 revenue and net income | Q2 2026 revenue of $78.42 million, up 7.66% year over year, net income of $30.00 million, and net income attributable to common shareholders of $29.96 million or $0.27 per diluted share, with net income matching SEC EDGAR XBRL for the quarter ended June 30, 2026 | StockAnalysis.com income statement and SEC EDGAR XBRL | August 4, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 AFFO and rental income | Q2 AFFO per share of $0.45, up 1.4% from the prior year, Q2 cash rental income of $70.0 million, up 8.7% year over year, and annualized cash-based rent for leases in place of $270.5 million as of quarter end | FCPT Q2 2026 earnings call | August 4, 2026 |
| Portfolio occupancy and rent coverage | Occupancy above 99.5%, rent collection of 99.7% of base rent for Q2, rent coverage of 5.2x for the reporting majority of the portfolio, and 6.0x coverage on the Darden properties | FCPT Q2 2026 earnings call | August 4, 2026 |
| 2026 year-to-date investment | Year-to-date acquisition of $382 million of properties at a blended 6.6% cash cap rate through July, with Q2 adding 23 properties for $57 million at a 6.8% cash cap rate weighted toward automotive at 64% of volume, including a $26 million Sun Auto Tire & Service portfolio | FCPT Q2 2026 earnings call | August 4, 2026 |
| Mission Pet Health acquisition | Closed the 102 property Mission Pet Health portfolio for $268 million early in Q3, the largest acquisition in company history, with about $17.4 million of annualized cash rent, roughly 2% annual rent growth, two institutional master leases with about 10 years remaining, unit-level coverage over 6x, and an average basis of about $2.6 million per property | FCPT Q2 2026 earnings call | August 4, 2026 |
| Balance sheet and financing | Since April, FCPT closed $600 million of term loans including a $200 million seven-year facility at SOFR plus 125 basis points and a $400 million five-year facility at SOFR plus 90 basis points, with all-in rates around 4.5% to 4.9%, a fully undrawn $350 million revolver, run-rate leverage below the 6x upper bound of the stated 5x to 6x range, and a pro forma weighted average debt tenor of 4.3 years | FCPT Q2 2026 earnings call | August 4, 2026 |
| Cash, debt, and net debt | Cash and cash equivalents of $24.79 million as of June 30, 2026, matching SEC EDGAR XBRL, total debt near $1.25 billion on the StockAnalysis.com balance sheet and $1.265 billion on the XBRL debt instrument carrying amount, and net cash of negative $1.22 billion or about $11.10 per share | StockAnalysis.com balance sheet and SEC EDGAR XBRL | August 4, 2026 |
| Dividend and yield | Annual dividend of $1.47 per share, a 5.80% dividend yield, monthly payments with a first monthly dividend of $0.1222 declared for the August 31, 2026 ex-dividend date, a GAAP payout ratio near 154%, 4 years of dividend growth, and a buyback yield of negative 9.24% reflecting equity issuance | StockAnalysis.com dividend page and statistics | August 4, 2026 |
| Valuation ratios | 23.00x trailing PE, 21.80x forward PE, 14.94x trailing price to FFO, 9.07x price to sales, 1.71x price to book, and a 5.80% dividend yield at the $25.30 price | StockAnalysis.com statistics | August 4, 2026 |
| Analyst consensus | Buy with an average 12-month target of $28.22 across 9 analysts, low $26, median $28, and high $30, with the July 2026 rating mix at 2 Strong Buy, 2 Buy, and 5 Hold | StockAnalysis.com forecast | August 4, 2026 |
| Recent analyst target updates | Barclays lowered its target to $29 from $30 on July 22 with a Hold, Wells Fargo held $26 on July 16, UBS held $30 with a Buy on July 9, Huntington initiated with Outperform and a $27 target in July, Evercore ISI raised to $27 from $26 on April 30, and BMO held $27 on April 30 | StockAnalysis.com forecast and analyst ratings | August 4, 2026 |
| Consensus financial forecast | FY2026 revenue estimate of $293.29 million, FY2027 revenue of $341.24 million, FY2026 EPS estimate of $1.18 rising 8.26%, FY2026 FFO per share estimate of $1.77 with a 14.29x P/FFO, and FY2026 dividend estimate of $1.47 | StockAnalysis.com forecast financial forecast | August 4, 2026 |
| Short interest | 3.93 million shares short, 3.57% of shares outstanding, 3.62% of float, and 4.16 days to cover, up from 3.42 million shares short the prior month | StockAnalysis.com statistics short selling | August 4, 2026 |
| Technical snapshot | 50-day moving average near $25.17 and 200-day moving average near $24.63 on StockAnalysis.com statistics, 20-day moving average near $25.69 computed from the StockAnalysis.com daily price history, 14-day RSI near 46.46, beta of 0.81, 20-day average volume near 719,900 shares, and a 52-week range of $22.78 to $26.86 | StockAnalysis.com statistics and daily price history | August 4, 2026 |
| Portfolio diversification | Pro forma for Mission Pet Health, roughly 41% of cash rent now comes from outside casual dining, including medical retail at about 16%, auto service at about 13%, and quick service restaurants at about 10%, with Darden at about 41% of cash rent and the original spin-off portfolio now about 29% of properties owned | FCPT Q2 2026 earnings call | August 4, 2026 |
| Data source gap | FFO and AFFO per share for the trailing twelve months were inferred from the price to FFO ratio rather than sourced from the company supplemental. The StockAnalysis.com statistics page reports cash and cash equivalents of $40.09 million under S&P Global classification, while the StockAnalysis.com balance sheet page and SEC EDGAR XBRL show $24.79 million as of June 30, 2026; this page uses the balance sheet and XBRL figure as primary. Company-provided occupancy, rent coverage, and investment pipeline metrics should be checked against the FCPT investor relations page and supplemental report for the most accurate current data. | StockAnalysis.com financials and FCPT investor relations | August 4, 2026 |
This FCPT AI stock analysis page is an informational tool only and is not investment advice, tax advice, or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Forecast ranges are scenarios based on available public data as of August 4, 2026 and may be wrong if financial results, rates, cap rates, restaurant industry conditions, tenant credit, Darden renewal rates, acquisition spreads, financing costs, dividend policy, share issuance, or market conditions change.
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