Elbit Systems Ltd. research snapshot
ESLT AI stock analysis currently views Elbit Systems as a diversified defense technology supplier benefiting from elevated demand for aerospace, C4I and cyber, intelligence and electronic warfare, land systems, and U.S. defense products. The business has a $30.2 billion March 2026 backlog and delivered double-digit first-quarter revenue and profit growth, but the July 8, 2026 price of $779.12 already embeds substantial execution and defense-spending expectations. The AI score is 63 out of 100 because the operating evidence is strong while valuation, geopolitical disruption, export restrictions, supply chains, and backlog conversion limit investment certainty. This ESLT AI stock analysis is informational only and not investment advice.
Current price
$779.12 July 8, 2026 close
Market cap
$36.71 billion reported market cap
AI score
63 / 100
Rating
High-quality defense franchise with record backlog, strong earnings momentum, and demanding valuation
Trend status
Above the 200-day average but below the 50-day average after a sharp 52-week advance
Data cutoff (updated weekly)
July 11, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Elbit supplies integrated defense technology across aerospace, C4I and cyber, ISTAR and electronic warfare, land systems, and Elbit Systems of America. | High |
| Moat | System integration, mission-critical certification, customer relationships, installed base, R&D, and proven products create switching costs, though large primes and state-backed Israeli rivals remain formidable. | Medium-high |
| Management | President and CEO Bezhalel Machlis is focused on scaling production, automation, R&D, and margin expansion. The Federmann group retains significant influence through its indirect ownership. | Medium-high |
| Financial trend | FY2025 revenue grew 16.3% to $7.94 billion and net income rose 66.4% to $534 million. Q1 2026 revenue rose to $2.19 billion and GAAP net income reached $160.8 million. | High |
| Valuation | At $779.12, ESLT screens near 62.4x trailing earnings, 4.46x sales, 8.62x book value, and 61.0x free cash flow. The price requires sustained growth and margin delivery. | High |
| Technical trend | The close is below the 50-day average near $806 but above the 200-day average near $693, which describes a pullback within a still-positive longer trend. | Medium |
| Risk level | Risk is elevated by geopolitical disruption, export controls, supply-chain shortages, customer concentration, execution on a larger backlog, political scrutiny, and a rich valuation. | High |
| AI confidence | Reported financial and market data are well sourced, but AI cannot resolve future procurement, conflict, policy, or valuation outcomes. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | The operational case is credible, but investment certainty is only medium because a premium multiple makes the downside sensitive to slower growth or margin disappointment. | Medium |
ESLT AI stock forecast
The ESLT AI stock forecast uses audited scenario math rather than a certain target. Starting with $12.36 TTM EPS and the $779.12 July 8, 2026 reference price, a three-year model produces approximately $1,116.90 in a bullish case, $729.30 in a base case, and $429.20 in a bearish case before dividends. Those outcomes are assumption tests, not price predictions.
$1,050 to $1,175 before dividends
More likely if global defense budgets remain elevated, the $30.2 billion backlog converts on schedule, revenue compounds near the high teens, margins expand with automation and scale, and investors accept a mid-50s earnings multiple.
$675 to $775 before dividends
More likely if revenue grows near 12% annually, margins improve gradually, working capital remains manageable, and the market values the business near a low-40s earnings multiple.
$400 to $475 before dividends
More likely if contract timing slips, export restrictions or supply constraints disrupt delivery, conflict demand normalizes, costs rise, or investors reset the multiple toward 30x earnings.
ESLT AI technical analysis
ESLT AI technical analysis is mixed as of the July 11, 2026 data cutoff, using StockAnalysis market statistics updated July 8. ESLT closed at $779.12, below its 50-day moving average of $806.42 but above its 200-day moving average of $692.69. RSI was 47.34, 20-day average volume was about 101,723 shares, and the 52-week range was $422.84 to $1,016.06.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $779.12 | StockAnalysis listed the July 8, 2026 regular-session close at $779.12. |
| Immediate support | $750 to $780 | This zone surrounds the current price and should be watched for a hold or loss of the recent pullback area. |
| Deeper support | $690 to $700 | This range brackets the 200-day moving average near $692.69 and is the larger long-term trend test. |
| Near resistance | $805 to $825 | The 50-day moving average near $806.42 is the first recovery threshold. |
| Upper resistance | $950 to $1,016 | This zone approaches the upper part of the 52-week range, with StockAnalysis listing a $1,016.06 high. |
| Moving averages | 50-day $806.42, 200-day $692.69 | A reclaim of the 50-day average would improve near-term trend evidence; a sustained break below the 200-day average would weaken it. |
| Momentum | RSI 47.34 | Momentum was neutral to slightly weak, not a confirmed oversold condition. |
| Volume | 20-day average 101,723 shares | Given the relatively small float, volume confirmation matters around contracts, earnings, and geopolitical headlines. |
| Volatility | 52-week range $422.84 to $1,016.06 | The wide range shows that policy and conflict headlines can move the shares materially beyond routine earnings changes. |
| Invalidation | Sustained close below $690 to $700 | A break below the 200-day average area would invalidate the current long-term trend setup and require a fresh fundamental review. |
ESLT AI trading strategy
The ESLT AI trading strategy is a research framework, not personalized advice. It combines trend levels with backlog conversion, revenue, operating margin, cash flow, contract awards, export policy, supply-chain conditions, and the August 12, 2026 estimated earnings date.
Watch for ESLT to stabilize above $750 to $780 and reclaim $805 to $825 with confirming volume, contract execution, backlog growth, and no deterioration in cash conversion or operating margin.
A failed recovery followed by a sustained close below $690 to $700 should lower trend confidence, especially if it coincides with weaker orders, delivery delays, or margin pressure.
If ESLT approaches the $690 to $700 zone, compare the price with updated TTM EPS, free cash flow, backlog quality, net cash, and the outlook for defense procurement rather than assuming the prior high will return.
Do not treat a lower price as value if the decline follows export restrictions, customer-payment issues, supply disruption, backlog cancellation, or a material reset in margins.
Track backlog and expected delivery timing, segment revenue, gross margin, operating margin, operating cash flow, capex, inventory, net cash, major European and Israeli orders, and changes in defense budgets or export permissions.
Position sizing should reflect the stock’s premium valuation and headline sensitivity. A record order book is not equivalent to guaranteed revenue, margin, or shareholder return.
Investment research summary
Defense ministries and prime contractors pay Elbit for mission systems, sensors, unmanned solutions, communications, electronic warfare, munitions, training, and integrated platforms that must work reliably in regulated, high-consequence settings.
The moat rests on long qualification cycles, embedded programs, integration know-how, customer trust, R&D, local presence, and a broad portfolio across land, air, sea, intelligence, and communications. It is challenged by procurement competition from global primes and Israeli peers IAI and Rafael.
The thesis fails if backlog conversion slows, capacity and supply chains cannot support delivery, costs outpace pricing, export or regulatory restrictions tighten, customer budgets change, political scrutiny damages access, or the premium valuation compresses before earnings catch up.
CEO Bezhalel Machlis has emphasized production scale, automation, AI, R&D, capital discipline, and operating-margin expansion. The key test is whether those investments convert a larger backlog into cash and returns without compromising execution. The Federmann group is an influential controlling owner.
Global rearmament, air defense, drones, electronic warfare, precision systems, and digital command networks support demand. That trend is cyclical in procurement timing and exposed to government budgets, export policy, geopolitical shifts, and component availability.
At $779.12, the market values visible growth and execution highly. Margin of safety improves only if backlog conversion, earnings growth, cash flow, and margins keep exceeding the assumptions embedded in roughly 62x trailing earnings and 61x free cash flow.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| Current price and market data | $779.12 July 8 close, 46.48 million shares, $36.71 billion reported market cap | StockAnalysis ESLT statistics | July 11, 2026 |
| Market-cap cross-check | $779.12 times 46.48 million shares equals $36.21 billion, 1.35% below reported market cap due to price and share timing | Pineify financial rigor check using StockAnalysis inputs | July 11, 2026 |
| FY2025 revenue | $7.94 billion, up 16.3%, cross-checked with company results and StockAnalysis | Elbit Systems FY2025 results | July 11, 2026 |
| FY2025 net income | $534.34 million, up 66.4%, cross-checked with Macrotrends and company results | Macrotrends ESLT net income | July 11, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 revenue and profit | $2.189 billion revenue, $160.8 million GAAP net income, and $3.34 GAAP diluted EPS | Elbit Systems Q1 2026 results | July 11, 2026 |
| Order backlog | $30.2 billion at March 31, 2026; about 49% scheduled for the remainder of 2026 and 2027 | Elbit Systems Q1 2026 results | July 11, 2026 |
| Cash and debt | $925.27 million cash, $895.11 million debt, and $30.15 million net cash, cross-checked with Q1 filing and StockAnalysis | StockAnalysis ESLT statistics | July 11, 2026 |
| TTM free cash flow | $601.79 million, $12.95 per share, and 1.64% FCF yield | StockAnalysis ESLT statistics | July 11, 2026 |
| Valuation check | 63.04x tool-calculated P/E, 8.50x P/B, 60.16x P/FCF, 1.66% FCF yield, and 0.45% dividend yield | Pineify financial rigor check using StockAnalysis inputs | July 11, 2026 |
| Technical levels | 50-day MA $806.42, 200-day MA $692.69, RSI 47.34, 20-day average volume 101,723 | StockAnalysis ESLT statistics | July 11, 2026 |
| Management ownership | Michael Federmann and his sons collectively held an indirect economic interest of about 26.2% in the 2025 proxy disclosure | Elbit Systems 2025 proxy statement | July 11, 2026 |
This ESLT AI stock analysis is an informational research tool only. It is not investment advice, a recommendation, or a promise of future returns. Forecast scenarios use public data available through July 11, 2026 and can be wrong if earnings, contracts, defense budgets, export policy, supply chains, geopolitical conditions, valuation multiples, or market conditions change.
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