Embraer S.A. research snapshot
EMBJ AI stock analysis currently views Embraer as a multi-segment Brazilian aerospace OEM spanning commercial regional jets, executive jets, defense platforms, and services, with a record firm backlog and rising delivery cadence. At the July 12, 2026 data cutoff, the reference price was $66.01 and verified market capitalization was about $11.75 billion using 177.96 million ADS outstanding. The setup is constructive on orders and revenue growth, but it is not a certain stock price prediction: U.S. import tariffs, delivery timing, airline and business-jet demand, Brazil-related policy risk, Eve cash burn, and a trailing PE near 34x can change the outcome. This page is for informational use only and is not investment advice.
Current price
$66.01 reference price
Market cap
$11.75 billion verified
AI score
69 / 100
Rating
Quality multi-segment aircraft OEM with growth backlog and full valuation
Trend status
Constructive above the middle of the 52-week range, with delivery execution and 2026 margin guidance as the key tests
Data cutoff (updated weekly)
July 12, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Embraer designs, builds, and supports commercial regional jets, executive jets, and defense aircraft, plus services and parts. Airlines, corporations, and governments pay for certified platforms that are hard to replace quickly once fleets and training systems are locked in. | High |
| Moat | Certification barriers, installed fleet, spare-parts and training ecosystems, E-Jet product lineage, defense program relationships, and scale in the regional-jet niche form the moat. Network effects are limited; switching costs and regulatory barriers matter more than brand alone. | High |
| Management | CEO Francisco Gomes Neto has overseen a multi-year recovery in deliveries, margins, backlog, and liability maturity. Capital allocation should be judged on delivery discipline, tariff absorption, Eve funding, and whether growth spending stays inside free-cash-flow capacity. | Medium-high |
| Financial trend | FY2025 revenue was $7.578 billion (+18% yoy), adjusted EBIT $656.8 million (8.7% margin), and adjusted free cash flow without Eve $491.2 million. Deliveries rose to 244 aircraft and firm backlog reached a record $31.6 billion at year-end 2025. | High |
| Valuation | At $66.01, tool-verified trailing PE was about 34.4x on $1.9219 FY2025 diluted EPS per ADS, with price-to-sales near 1.55x on 2025 revenue. That is a full multiple for an industrial OEM unless 2026 delivery and margin guidance land cleanly. | Medium-high |
| Technical trend | The reference price sits in the middle-to-upper part of the $46.54 to $80.75 52-week range and above the reported 50-day area near $60. The chart is constructive, but the path from the low still leaves room for mean reversion if earnings or tariff news disappoints. | Medium |
| Risk level | Main risks include U.S. import tariffs, delivery delays, airline and business-jet demand swings, supplier constraints, Brazilian policy and FX, defense budget timing, Eve cash needs, and multiple compression if growth slows. | High |
| AI confidence | High for filed and company-reported facts and valuation math, medium for market timing and multi-year price scenarios. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | Medium certainty. Embraer has a real product franchise and backlog visibility, but the current price already embeds a strong recovery story. | Medium |
EMBJ AI stock forecast
The EMBJ AI stock forecast uses scenario math around the $66.01 reference price and $1.9219 FY2025 diluted EPS per ADS. A three-year tool run with bull, base, and bear growth and PE assumptions produces areas near $88, $61, and $29. These are scenarios, not price targets or guaranteed outcomes.
$82 to $95
More likely if 2026 revenue lands in the $8.2 to $8.5 billion guide, commercial and executive deliveries hit the high end of 80 to 85 and 160 to 170 aircraft, adjusted EBIT margin holds near 9%, free cash flow stays positive, and investors keep about 28x to 30x growing earnings.
$55 to $68
More likely if deliveries grow in line with guidance, margins absorb a 10% U.S. tariff path near the guided band, EPS compounds near 10% for three years, and the market values the franchise closer to 22x to 24x earnings as growth normalizes.
$25 to $35
More likely if airline or executive-jet demand softens, tariffs or supply issues cut margins, backlog conversion slips, Eve funding pressure rises, or the market re-rates cyclical aerospace earnings toward the mid-teens PE.
EMBJ AI technical analysis
EMBJ AI technical analysis is constructive but not overextended as of the July 12, 2026 data cutoff. The $66.01 reference price is above the middle of the $46.54 to $80.75 52-week range and below the $80.75 high. Levels below are a monitoring framework based on the recent range, not a guarantee of support or resistance.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Reference price | $66.01 | Latest market snapshot used for this page as of the July 12, 2026 data cutoff. |
| Near support | $62 to $64 | Recent consolidation area under the mid-range price used for short-horizon monitoring. |
| Structural support | $55 to $58 | A sustained break below this band would weaken the current recovery framework and require a fresh review of deliveries, tariffs, and guidance. |
| Moving averages | Use live 50-day and 200-day averages | Yahoo snapshot data cited a 50-day average near $60.23 earlier in July 2026. Confirm live averages before treating a crossover as current. |
| Near resistance | $70 to $75 | Intermediate supply area on the path back toward the $80.75 52-week high. |
| Major resistance | $80.75 | Reported 52-week high in July 2026 market snapshots from Yahoo, Morningstar, and Kraken. |
| Momentum | Positive range position, confirm with live RSI | CNN market notes placed EMBJ above its 200-day average and in the middle of its 52-week range. Use live RSI and price-volume confirmation rather than an old oscillator reading. |
| Volume | About 0.7 to 1.0 million shares recent daily volume | Average volume near 1 million ADS was cited in multiple July 2026 snapshots. Breakouts should clear average volume before confirmation. |
| Volatility | 52-week range $46.54 to $80.75 | The range shows that aerospace news, tariffs, earnings, and Brazil risk can move the share price sharply. |
| Invalidation | Close below $55 | A decisive close below this structural support area invalidates the near-term constructive chart framework until rebuilt. |
EMBJ AI trading strategy
The EMBJ AI trading strategy is a rules-based monitoring framework, not personalized advice. Pair price levels with live delivery, backlog, tariff, margin, and guidance data rather than treating the chart alone as a signal.
Watch whether EMBJ holds the $62 to $64 area and clears $70 to $75 with above-average volume. Confirm with stable commercial and executive delivery pacing, no adverse tariff shock, and backlog that stays near the record zone.
Define position size before entry. A failed breakout or a decisive close below $55 weakens the setup.
If EMBJ retraces toward $55 to $58, review 2026 revenue and margin guidance, U.S. tariff costs, free cash flow, airline and business-jet demand, and any Azul or major customer order changes before assuming the decline is an opportunity.
Do not average down without a maximum loss rule. Aerospace OEMs can reprice quickly when deliveries or margins miss.
Track commercial deliveries versus the 80 to 85 guide, executive deliveries versus 160 to 170, adjusted EBIT margin versus 8.7% to 9.3%, free cash flow without Eve, firm backlog, defense program wins, Eve funding needs, and next quarterly results.
Reduce confidence if growth depends only on multiple expansion, if tariffs erode the margin guide, or if cash generation turns negative without a clear temporary working-capital reason.
Investment research summary
Embraer builds and supports aircraft that regional airlines, corporations, and governments need when larger widebody OEMs are not the right fit. Customers pay for certified platforms, residual value support, training, and aftermarket parts across commercial, executive, and defense segments.
Embraer's moat comes from certification barriers, fleet installed base, spare-parts and MRO ecosystems, E-Jet product continuity, and defense program stickiness. The moat is durable in niches but does not remove cyclical airline, business-jet, or budget risk.
The thesis can fail through tariff-driven margin pressure, delivery delays, weaker regional airline or executive-jet demand, supplier bottlenecks, Brazilian policy or FX shocks, defense program deferrals, Eve cash drain, or a re-rating of growth aerospace multiples.
Under Francisco Gomes Neto, Embraer has rebuilt backlog, extended loan maturity, and delivered record 2025 revenue. Investors should still test capital allocation through delivery quality, tariff absorption, R&D discipline, and Eve funding versus core free cash flow.
Regional aviation, business aviation, and defense airlift sit inside long-run air-travel and security demand. Supply constraints at larger OEMs can support Embraer demand, while recession, rates, oil prices, and trade policy can reverse the cycle.
At about 34x trailing EPS, the market already prices continued growth and margin resilience. Margin of safety improves when the price allows for tariff headwinds, lower delivery growth, and a mid-cycle PE rather than peak recovery optimism.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| EMBJ reference price and market capitalization | $66.01 reference price and about $11.75 billion market capitalization in July 2026 market snapshots | Kraken and Morningstar EMBJ quote pages | July 12, 2026 |
| Market capitalization verification | $11.75 billion verified as $66.01 x 177.96 million ADS, versus $11.75 billion reported (0.02% variance) | financial_rigor.py market cap verification | July 12, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding (ADS) | 177.96 million ADS outstanding, consistent across Morningstar and Kraken July 2026 snapshots | Morningstar EMBJ quote | July 12, 2026 |
| FY2025 revenue | $7.578 billion, +18% year over year and above the high end of company guidance; Macrotrends matches $7.578B | Embraer 4Q25 and FY25 earnings release | July 12, 2026 |
| FY2025 adjusted EBIT and margin | $656.8 million adjusted EBIT at an 8.7% margin, above guidance | Embraer 4Q25 and FY25 earnings release | July 12, 2026 |
| FY2025 diluted EPS (ADS) and trailing PE | $1.9219 company-reported diluted EPS per ADS; Macrotrends $1.92; tool-verified PE about 34.4x at $66.01 | Embraer release, Macrotrends EPS, financial_rigor.py | July 12, 2026 |
| FY2025 adjusted free cash flow and net cash | $491.2 million adjusted free cash flow without Eve; $109.3 million net cash without Eve at year-end 2025 | Embraer 4Q25 and FY25 earnings release | July 12, 2026 |
| Deliveries and firm backlog | 244 aircraft delivered in 2025 (+18% yoy); firm backlog $31.6 billion at 4Q25, later reported at $32.1 billion in 1Q26 | Embraer backlog and deliveries releases | July 12, 2026 |
| 2026 company guidance | Revenue $8.2 to $8.5 billion; adjusted EBIT margin 8.7% to 9.3% with 10% U.S. import tariffs; commercial deliveries 80 to 85; executive 160 to 170; adjusted FCF without Eve $200 million or higher | Embraer 4Q25 and FY25 earnings release | July 12, 2026 |
| Technical range and moving averages | 52-week range $46.54 to $80.75; Yahoo key statistics cited 50-day average near $60.23 earlier in July 2026 | Yahoo Finance key statistics and multi-source 52-week range | July 12, 2026 |
This EMBJ AI stock analysis is an informational research tool, not investment advice, tax advice, or a recommendation to buy or sell securities. Forecast scenarios use available public data as of July 12, 2026 and can be wrong if earnings, deliveries, tariffs, backlog conversion, FX, defense budgets, Eve outcomes, or market sentiment changes.
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