Embraer S.A. research snapshot
EMBJ AI stock analysis currently views Embraer as a multi-segment Brazilian aerospace OEM spanning commercial regional jets, executive jets, defense platforms, and services, with a record firm backlog and a rising delivery cadence. At the August 3, 2026 data cutoff, the reference price was $68.33 and verified market capitalization was about $12.16 billion using 177.96 million ADS outstanding. The setup is constructive on orders, backlog, and revenue growth, but it is not a certain stock price prediction: U.S. Section 301 tariffs (with civil aircraft exempt for now), delivery timing, airline and business-jet demand, Brazil-related policy and FX risk, Eve cash burn, and a trailing PE near 37x to 40x can change the outcome. This page is for informational use only and is not investment advice.
Current price
$68.33 reference price
Market cap
$12.16 billion verified
AI score
70 / 100
Rating
Quality multi-segment aircraft OEM with a record backlog, constructive momentum, and a full valuation
Trend status
Constructive after reclaiming its 200-day moving average, with the $34.5 billion record backlog, U.S. tariff scope, and August 10 earnings as the next catalysts
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Embraer designs, builds, and supports commercial regional jets, executive jets, and defense aircraft, plus services and parts. Airlines, corporations, and governments pay for certified platforms that are hard to replace quickly once fleets and training systems are locked in. | High |
| Moat | Certification barriers, installed fleet, spare-parts and training ecosystems, E-Jet product lineage, defense program relationships, and scale in the regional-jet niche form the moat. Network effects are limited; switching costs and regulatory barriers matter more than brand alone. | High |
| Management | CEO Francisco Gomes Neto has overseen a multi-year recovery in deliveries, margins, backlog, and liability maturity, and has kept the fighter-jet ambition out while extending the Saab partnership. Capital allocation should still be judged on delivery discipline, tariff absorption, Eve funding, and whether growth spending stays inside free-cash-flow capacity. | Medium-high |
| Financial trend | FY2025 revenue was $7.578 billion (+18.5% yoy), and trailing-twelve-month revenue reached $8.25 billion (+15.2%) with record firm backlog of $34.5 billion at the end of the second quarter of 2026. Free cash flow was positive for FY2025, though the GAAP net income line remains volatile across FX and one-off items. | High |
| Valuation | At $68.33, tool-verified trailing PE was about 40.2x on Yahoo-reported TTM EPS of $1.70 per ADS, with StockAnalysis showing about 37.5x, price-to-sales near 1.5x, and forward PE near 20x to 22x. That is a full multiple for an industrial OEM unless 2026 delivery and margin guidance land cleanly. | Medium-high |
| Technical trend | The reference price sits near the upper-middle of the $53.56 to $80.75 52-week range and above both its 50-day average near $61.85 and its 200-day average near $64.60, which it reclaimed in July 2026. The chart is constructive, but the stock has already rallied 24.6% over the past year, leaving room for mean reversion if earnings or tariff news disappoints. | Medium |
| Risk level | Main risks include the July 2026 U.S. Section 301 tariff on Brazil (civil aircraft and aerospace products are currently exempt), delivery delays, airline and business-jet demand swings, supplier constraints, Brazilian policy and FX, defense budget timing, Eve cash needs, and multiple compression if growth slows. | High |
| AI confidence | High for filed and company-reported facts and valuation math, medium for market timing and multi-year price scenarios. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | Medium certainty. Embraer has a real product franchise and record backlog visibility, but the current price already embeds a strong recovery story and a high trailing multiple. | Medium |
EMBJ AI stock forecast
The EMBJ AI stock forecast uses scenario math around the $68.33 reference price and $1.70 TTM EPS per ADS. A three-year tool run with bull, base, and bear growth and PE assumptions produces areas near $93, $52, and $28. These are scenarios, not price targets or guaranteed outcomes.
$85 to $100
More likely if 2026 revenue lands near the $8.2 billion to $8.5 billion equivalent path, commercial and executive deliveries hit the high end of guidance, adjusted EBIT margin holds near 9%, the $34.5 billion backlog keeps converting into revenue, Eve funding stays disciplined, and investors keep about 28x to 30x growing earnings.
$48 to $58
More likely if deliveries grow in line with guidance, margins absorb a mixed tariff path near the guided band, EPS compounds at a mid-teens rate for three years, and the market values the franchise closer to 20x to 22x forward earnings as growth normalizes.
$25 to $32
More likely if airline or executive-jet demand softens, tariffs broaden beyond the current aerospace exemption, supply issues cut margins, backlog conversion slips, Eve funding pressure rises, or the market re-rates cyclical aerospace earnings toward the mid-teens PE.
EMBJ AI technical analysis
EMBJ AI technical analysis is constructive but not overextended as of the August 3, 2026 data cutoff. The $68.33 reference price sits in the upper-middle of the $53.56 to $80.75 52-week range, above the 50-day average near $61.85 and the 200-day average near $64.60, which the stock reclaimed in July 2026. Levels below are a monitoring framework based on the current range, not a guarantee of support or resistance.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Reference price | $68.33 | Closing market snapshot used for this page as of the July 31, 2026 close, referenced with the August 3, 2026 data cutoff. |
| Near support | $64 to $66 | Area around the 200-day moving average near $64.60 and recent consolidation zone used for short-horizon monitoring. |
| Structural support | $58 to $62 | A sustained break below this band, which includes the 50-day average near $61.85, would weaken the current recovery framework and require a fresh review of deliveries, tariffs, and guidance. |
| Moving averages | 50-day near $61.85, 200-day near $64.60 | StockAnalysis statistics place the 50-day average near $61.85 and the 200-day average near $64.60. Confirm live averages before treating a crossover as current. |
| Near resistance | $72 to $76 | Intermediate supply area on the path back toward the $80.75 52-week high. |
| Major resistance | $80.75 | Reported 52-week high in late July 2026 market snapshots from StockAnalysis and Yahoo Finance. |
| Momentum | Positive, RSI near 61.7 | StockAnalysis reported RSI near 61.7 and the stock reclaimed its 200-day average in July 2026. Use live RSI and price-volume confirmation rather than an old oscillator reading. |
| Volume | About 1.0 to 1.4 million shares recent daily volume | StockAnalysis reported about 983,000 average 20-day volume while Yahoo Finance reported about 1.4 million average volume. Breakouts should clear average volume before confirmation. |
| Volatility | 52-week range $53.56 to $80.75, beta near 0.72 | The range shows that aerospace news, tariffs, earnings, and Brazil risk can move the share price, while the low beta points to below-market day-to-day volatility. |
| Invalidation | Close below $62 | A decisive close below the $58 to $62 structural support band, which contains the 50-day average, invalidates the near-term constructive chart framework until rebuilt. |
EMBJ AI trading strategy
The EMBJ AI trading strategy is a rules-based monitoring framework, not personalized advice. Pair price levels with live delivery, backlog, tariff, margin, and guidance data rather than treating the chart alone as a signal.
Watch whether EMBJ holds the $64 to $66 area and clears $72 to $76 with above-average volume. Confirm with stable commercial and executive delivery pacing, no tariff broadening beyond the current aerospace exemption, and backlog that stays near the record zone.
Define position size before entry. A failed breakout or a decisive close below $62 weakens the setup.
If EMBJ retraces toward $58 to $62, review 2026 revenue and margin guidance, U.S. tariff scope, free cash flow, airline and business-jet demand, and any major customer order changes before assuming the decline is an opportunity.
Do not average down without a maximum loss rule. Aerospace OEMs can reprice quickly when deliveries or margins miss.
Track commercial and executive deliveries versus company guidance, adjusted EBIT margin versus the guided band, free cash flow without Eve, firm backlog near the record $34.5 billion zone, defense program wins, Eve funding needs, U.S. tariff policy updates, and the August 10, 2026 earnings report.
Reduce confidence if growth depends only on multiple expansion, if tariffs broaden and erode the margin guide, or if cash generation turns negative without a clear temporary working-capital reason.
Investment research summary
Embraer builds and supports aircraft that regional airlines, corporations, and governments need when larger widebody OEMs are not the right fit. Customers pay for certified platforms, residual value support, training, and aftermarket parts across commercial, executive, and defense segments.
Embraer's moat comes from certification barriers, fleet installed base, spare-parts and MRO ecosystems, E-Jet product continuity, and defense program stickiness. The moat is durable in niches but does not remove cyclical airline, business-jet, tariff, or budget risk.
The thesis can fail through tariff-driven margin pressure or broader trade restrictions, delivery delays, weaker regional airline or executive-jet demand, supplier bottlenecks, Brazilian policy or FX shocks, defense program deferrals, Eve cash drain, or a re-rating of growth aerospace multiples.
Under Francisco Gomes Neto, Embraer has rebuilt backlog to a record $34.5 billion, resolved the main E2 engine issues, and delivered strong 2025 revenue. Investors should still test capital allocation through delivery quality, tariff absorption, R&D discipline, and Eve funding versus core free cash flow.
Regional aviation, business aviation, and defense airlift sit inside long-run air-travel and security demand, and the July 2026 Farnborough Airshow plus orders from Abra Group and Porter support the cycle. Supply constraints at larger OEMs can support Embraer demand, while recession, rates, oil prices, and trade policy can reverse it.
At roughly 37x to 40x trailing EPS, the market already prices continued growth and margin resilience, with forward PE closer to 20x to 22x. Margin of safety improves when the price allows for tariff headwinds, lower delivery growth, and a mid-cycle PE rather than peak recovery optimism.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| EMBJ reference price and market capitalization | $68.33 reference price (July 31, 2026 close) and about $12.16 billion market capitalization in late July 2026 snapshots | StockAnalysis and Yahoo Finance EMBJ quote pages | August 2, 2026 |
| Market capitalization verification | $12.16 billion verified as $68.33 x 177.96 million ADS, versus $12.16 billion reported (0.00% variance) | financial_rigor.py market cap verification | August 2, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding (ADS) | 177.96 million ADS outstanding implied by $12.16 billion market cap at $68.33, consistent with the 711.83 million common-share count reported by StockAnalysis | StockAnalysis EMBJ statistics page | August 2, 2026 |
| TTM revenue and growth | $8.25 billion trailing-twelve-month revenue, +15.2% year over year, in the July 2026 TTM snapshot | StockAnalysis EMBJ statistics page | August 2, 2026 |
| FY2025 revenue | $7.578 billion for FY2025, +18.5% year over year, matching the prior 4Q25 and FY25 earnings release figure | StockAnalysis EMBJ financials page and Embraer FY25 release | August 2, 2026 |
| TTM EPS (ADS) and trailing PE | Yahoo reported TTM EPS of $1.70 per ADS and trailing PE of about 40.2x at $68.33; StockAnalysis showed about 37.5x on its own EPS basis | Yahoo Finance EMBJ quote and StockAnalysis statistics | August 2, 2026 |
| Valuation ratios | Forward PE near 20x to 22x, price-to-sales near 1.47x to 1.57x, price-to-book near 3.32x to 3.68x, and EV/EBITDA near 17.6x to 24.3x across Yahoo and StockAnalysis | StockAnalysis EMBJ statistics and Yahoo Finance quote | August 2, 2026 |
| Record firm backlog | Firm order backlog hit a record $34.5 billion at the end of the second quarter of 2026, up 16% year over year | Reuters, July 24, 2026 | August 2, 2026 |
| Analyst consensus and price target | Strong Buy consensus across 15 analysts with an average 12-month price target of $80.80 (low $65, high $97), last updated June 8, 2026 | StockAnalysis EMBJ forecast page | August 2, 2026 |
| Technical range and moving averages | 52-week range $53.56 to $80.75; 50-day average near $61.85 and 200-day average near $64.60; RSI near 61.7; beta near 0.72 | StockAnalysis EMBJ statistics page | August 2, 2026 |
| U.S. tariff context | USTR announced a 25% Section 301 tariff on many Brazilian imports effective July 22, 2026; civil aircraft and hundreds of aerospace products are exempt, limiting immediate impact on Embraer | The Motley Fool, July 23, 2026 | August 2, 2026 |
| Upcoming earnings date | Next quarterly earnings scheduled for August 10, 2026 | StockAnalysis EMBJ statistics page | August 2, 2026 |
This EMBJ AI stock analysis is an informational research tool, not investment advice, tax advice, or a recommendation to buy or sell securities. Forecast scenarios use available public data as of August 3, 2026 and can be wrong if earnings, deliveries, tariffs, backlog conversion, FX, defense budgets, Eve outcomes, or market sentiment changes.
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