DaVita Inc. research snapshot
DVA AI stock analysis currently reads DaVita as a scaled kidney dialysis provider with durable patient need, strong cash generation, aggressive buybacks, and material leverage. At the August 2, 2026 data cutoff, DVA closed near $240.09 on July 31, 2026, close to its 52-week high of $244.49, after a 66% gain over the past year. Q1 2026 revenue rose to $3.416 billion and diluted EPS of $2.87 beat the $2.33 consensus, and management raised 2026 adjusted diluted EPS guidance to $14.10 to $15.20. The DVA AI stock forecast is scenario-based, not a precise prediction, because the investment case depends on dialysis treatment volumes, Medicare and commercial reimbursement, labor costs, leverage, buyback discipline, and whether the market keeps paying up after the stock ran ahead of the $208.57 average analyst target.
Current price
$240.09
Market cap
$15.41 billion verified market cap
AI score
62 / 100
Rating
High-cash-flow dialysis operator with raised 2026 EPS guidance, heavy leverage, and policy-sensitive reimbursement risk
Trend status
Positive technical trend above the 50-day and 200-day moving averages, with RSI near 66 approaching overbought
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | DaVita provides life-sustaining dialysis and related kidney care services for chronic kidney failure patients, with recurring medical need, roughly 296,300 patients, and 3,262 centers across 15 countries. | High |
| Moat | Scale, clinic density, physician relationships, operational know-how, payer contracting, and regulatory complexity create barriers, but the moat is capped by reimbursement rules and patient access scrutiny. | Medium-high |
| Management | Javier Rodriguez has delivered clinical quality and a Q1 2026 EPS beat of $2.87 against $2.33 consensus, with disciplined buybacks. The open question is whether repurchases remain value-accretive after the share price roughly doubled and the share count fell 14.33% year over year. | Medium |
| Financial trend | Q1 2026 revenue rose to $3.416 billion with $2.87 diluted EPS, and management raised 2026 adjusted operating income guidance to $2,150 million to $2,250 million and adjusted diluted EPS guidance to $14.10 to $15.20. Trailing twelve-month free cash flow was $1.49 billion per StockAnalysis. | High |
| Valuation | At $240.09, DVA screens near 23x trailing EPS, 15.7x forward earnings, 1.11x sales, about 10.3x free cash flow, and a negative book value due to buybacks and leverage. The stock trades about 13% above the $208.57 average analyst target. | Medium-high |
| Technical trend | The chart is in a strong uptrend, with price above the StockAnalysis 50-day moving average near $216.86 and the 200-day moving average near $156.65. RSI near 66.60 is positive but approaching the overbought zone above 70. | Medium |
| Risk level | Key risks are Medicare and commercial reimbursement, patient care cost inflation, near-zero organic treatment growth, $13.22 billion of total debt, negative common equity, payer mix, buybacks at elevated prices, and the August 4, 2026 earnings catalyst. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | Descriptive confidence is high because company releases and StockAnalysis align on the major facts. Forecast confidence is lower because reimbursement and capital allocation are hard to model. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | DVA has a durable service base and strong cash flow, but after a 66% rally the stock trades above the analyst consensus target, so the setup requires continued execution rather than a simple low-multiple value case. | Medium-low |
DVA AI stock forecast
The DVA AI stock forecast uses the $240.09 July 31, 2026 close, trailing EPS of $10.74, 64.20 million shares outstanding, raised 2026 adjusted diluted EPS guidance of $14.10 to $15.20, and a fresh three-year scenario model. The mechanical model produced about $359 in a bullish case, $217 in a base case, and $107 in a bearish case from trailing EPS. Because DaVita carries significant debt, repurchases stock aggressively, and depends on regulated reimbursement, the practical forecast range should be read as a risk framework, not a price promise.
$290 to $360
More likely if the August 4, 2026 earnings report confirms volume gains from competitor clinic closures, adjusted EPS moves toward or above the high end of 2026 guidance, reimbursement stays stable, free cash flow stays near $1.0 billion to $1.25 billion, and buybacks continue without stretching leverage.
$200 to $250
More likely if treatment volumes and reimbursement improve slowly, adjusted EPS lands inside the $14.10 to $15.20 guidance, debt remains manageable, and the market values DaVita around the current 15 to 16 times forward earnings level while the price drifts back toward the $208.57 average analyst target.
$100 to $165
More likely if reimbursement pressure rises, commercial mix weakens, patient care costs outpace rates, leverage tightens financial flexibility, or repurchases at elevated prices reduce future per-share value after the 66% rally.
DVA AI technical analysis
DVA AI technical analysis is positive but sensitive to overbought and failed-breakout risk as of the August 2, 2026 cutoff. StockAnalysis showed a July 31, 2026 close of $240.09, a 52-week range of $101.00 to $244.49, a 50-day moving average near $216.86, a 200-day moving average near $156.65, and a 14-day RSI near 66.60. The stock is above both moving averages after a 66% one-year gain, but the price is also about 13% above the average analyst target and RSI is approaching overbought, so the setup depends on the August 4, 2026 earnings report to confirm momentum.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $240.09 | StockAnalysis listed the July 31, 2026 close at $240.09, with after-hours trading near $240.25 and a day range of $236.09 to $240.91. |
| Immediate support | $236 to $238 | This zone brackets the July 31 day-range low of $236.09 and is the first short-term support under the current price. |
| Major support | $216 to $218 | The 50-day moving average near $216.86 is the main trend support that bulls want to defend. |
| Secondary support | $200 to $210 | This zone overlaps the average analyst target near $208.57 and the round $200 level, where valuation debate may intensify. |
| Broader trend reference | $156 to $160 | The 200-day moving average near $156.65 sits far below price and marks how much of the 2026 rally is reflected in the longer average. |
| Near resistance | $244 to $245 | The 52-week high near $244.49 is the first real resistance and a breakout level to watch. |
| Upper resistance | $250 to $270 | The $250 round number and Truist target, then the $270 UBS target, are extension zones that would require continued earnings and guidance confidence. |
| Moving averages | 50-day near $216.86, 200-day near $156.65 | Price is above both averages, so trend status stays positive while the 50-day holds. |
| Momentum | RSI near 66.60 | Momentum is positive but approaching the overbought zone above 70 on the StockAnalysis daily reading. |
| Volume | 426,613 shares on July 31 | That is below the 20-day average near 639,902, so volume confirmation around earnings matters because DVA can move sharply on results and reimbursement news. |
| Volatility | Watch Aug. 4, 2026 earnings | The next scheduled earnings report on August 4, 2026 is the main near-term catalyst after the August 2 data cutoff. |
| Invalidation | Close below $217, then below $200 | A sustained close below the 50-day average would weaken the short-term setup. A break below $200 would challenge the broader trend after a strong run. |
DVA AI trading strategy
The DVA AI trading strategy below is a rules-based research framework, not personal advice. It links the stock chart with reimbursement policy, treatment volume, cash flow, leverage, buybacks, adjusted EPS guidance, and the August 4, 2026 earnings report.
Watch for DVA to hold above the $216 to $218 50-day moving-average zone and then break above the $244.49 52-week high with earnings confirmation, stable reimbursement commentary, and full-year adjusted EPS guidance still intact.
A failed breakout followed by a close below $217 should reduce trend confidence, especially if management signals weaker treatment volume, higher labor pressure, or reimbursement headwinds.
If DVA pulls back toward $200 to $210 without a cut to 2026 guidance or deterioration in free cash flow, compare the lower price with the base-case scenario and the $208.57 analyst target.
Do not treat a lower price as automatically attractive if reimbursement pressure, debt costs, or repurchase discipline deteriorates at the same time.
Track U.S. dialysis treatment volume, revenue per treatment, patient care cost per treatment, adjusted operating income guidance, adjusted EPS guidance, free cash flow, debt, buybacks, and Medicare reimbursement updates around the August 4, 2026 report.
Position sizing should reflect that DVA is a regulated health care services company with high financial leverage and a stock price above the analyst consensus target, not a guaranteed defensive compounder.
Investment research summary
Patients, payers, hospitals, and health systems rely on DaVita for dialysis and kidney care delivery. Customers pay because dialysis is medically necessary, recurring, operationally complex, and difficult to replace at national scale.
DaVita moat sources include clinic density, care protocols, staff training, physician relationships, payer contracting, purchasing scale, and regulatory know-how. The moat is meaningful but not absolute because reimbursement policy and commercial payer negotiations can reset economics.
The thesis fails if reimbursement falls, patient care costs rise faster than rates, treatment volumes stagnate around 0% growth, commercial mix weakens, debt reduces flexibility, buybacks overpay near $240, or quality and compliance issues damage the franchise.
Management delivered a Q1 2026 earnings beat and raised 2026 guidance while buying back 3.0 million shares at an average of $133.70. The key judgment is whether capital allocation stays rational now that the share price is well above those repurchase levels.
Kidney disease treatment is tied to aging, diabetes, hypertension, and chronic care demand. The long-term need is durable, but growth is not a pure volume story because mortality, home dialysis adoption, competitor clinic closures, and reimbursement rules all shape economics.
At $240.09, about 15.7 times forward earnings and roughly 13% above the average analyst target, DVA is not priced like a neglected value stock. Margin of safety depends on whether $14.10 to $15.20 of 2026 adjusted EPS converts to durable free cash flow while debt, reimbursement, and buyback risk stay controlled.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| DVA quote reference | $240.09 close on July 31, 2026, with a 52-week range of $101.00 to $244.49 | StockAnalysis DVA overview | August 2, 2026 |
| Market capitalization verification | $15.41 billion reported and $15.41 billion calculated from $240.09 x 64.20 million shares, with a 0.02% deviation | Pineify financial_rigor.py and StockAnalysis DVA overview | August 2, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding | 64.20 million shares outstanding, down 14.33% year over year and 3.35% quarter over quarter in the StockAnalysis share statistics | StockAnalysis DVA statistics | August 2, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 results | $3.416 billion revenue, $482 million operating income, $2.87 diluted EPS, $321 million operating cash flow, $140 million free cash flow, and 3.0 million shares repurchased at an average price of $133.70 | DaVita Q1 2026 results press release | August 2, 2026 |
| 2026 guidance | Adjusted operating income of $2,150 million to $2,250 million, adjusted diluted EPS of $14.10 to $15.20, and free cash flow of $1,000 million to $1,250 million, with the adjusted EPS range raised from $13.60 to $15.00 | DaVita Q1 2026 results press release | August 2, 2026 |
| FY2025 financials | $13.643 billion FY2025 revenue, up 6.46%, and $746.8 million net income attributable to DaVita common shareholders, down 20.24% | StockAnalysis DVA financials | August 2, 2026 |
| Valuation ratios | StockAnalysis listed 23.09x trailing PE, 15.68x forward PE, 1.11x sales, 10.33x price to free cash flow, 7.60x price to operating cash flow, 9.98x EV to EBITDA, and a 0.61 PEG ratio | StockAnalysis DVA statistics | August 2, 2026 |
| Balance sheet | $666.55 million cash, $13.22 billion total debt, net cash of negative $12.55 billion, and book value per share of negative $11.41 | StockAnalysis DVA statistics | August 2, 2026 |
| Technical indicators | StockAnalysis listed a 50-day moving average of $216.86, a 200-day moving average of $156.65, a 14-day RSI of 66.60, a beta of 0.88, and a 20-day average volume near 639,902 | StockAnalysis DVA statistics | August 2, 2026 |
| Analyst consensus | Hold consensus with an average price target of $208.57, about 13% below the current price, across 8 analysts, with July 2026 target raises to $270 at UBS, $250 at Truist, and $218 at Barclays | StockAnalysis DVA overview | August 2, 2026 |
This DVA AI stock analysis is an informational research tool only and is not investment advice, tax advice, or a recommendation to buy or sell DaVita Inc. shares. Forecast scenarios are based on available public data as of August 2, 2026 and can be wrong if earnings, reimbursement policy, labor costs, treatment volume, debt, interest rates, or market conditions change.
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