Deere & Company research snapshot
DE AI stock analysis currently reads Deere & Company as a premium agriculture, turf, construction, forestry, precision technology, dealer network, and financing franchise. The business quality is strong, but the July 8, 2026 data cutoff shows a stock priced for a recovery before large agriculture demand has clearly normalized. At $603.61, DE traded around 34.20x TTM EPS, 3.44x sales, and 43.24x free cash flow. The DE AI stock forecast is therefore scenario-based rather than a precise price prediction: upside depends on a durable large-ag bottom, construction strength, price-cost discipline, and technology adoption, while downside appears if farm income, tariffs, used equipment values, or credit conditions weaken.
Current price
$603.61
Market cap
$162.94 billion verified market cap
AI score
57 / 100
Rating
High-quality agriculture and construction equipment franchise with cycle and valuation risk
Trend status
Long-term uptrend intact, short-term pullback below the 50-day average
Data cutoff (updated weekly)
July 8, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Deere sells mission-critical agriculture, turf, construction, forestry, precision technology, parts, services, and financing to customers who value uptime and productivity. | High |
| Moat | Brand trust, dealer density, parts availability, installed base, switching costs, data-enabled equipment, financing relationships, and scale create a strong moat. | High |
| Management | John May has kept investment focused on smart industrial technology and dealer productivity, but the cycle will test capital allocation and buyback discipline. | Medium-high |
| Financial trend | FY2025 revenue fell 12% to $45.684 billion and net income attributable to Deere fell 29% to $5.027 billion. Q2 2026 revenue rose 5% to $13.369 billion, but net income slipped 2%. | High |
| Valuation | At $603.61, DE screens expensive at 34.20x TTM EPS, 5.97x book value, 43.43x free cash flow per share, and 3.45x sales using audited tool inputs. | High |
| Technical trend | The stock remains above the 200-day average, but it pulled below the 50-day average and needs to reclaim the low-$620s to restore near-term momentum. | Medium |
| Risk level | Key risks are large-ag weakness, tariff costs, dealer inventory, used equipment prices, high interest rates, Financial Services credit losses, and multiple compression. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | Descriptive confidence is high because official and third-party data agree. Forecast confidence is lower because valuation, cycle timing, and sentiment are unstable. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | DE is a high-quality cyclical franchise, but the current price offers only a modest margin of safety unless earnings recover strongly after fiscal 2026. | Medium |
DE AI stock forecast
The DE AI stock forecast uses the $603.61 price reference, TTM EPS near $17.65, and a three-year scenario model. The audited model produced a bullish area near $805, a base area near $519, and a bearish area near $242 before dividends. The wide range reflects Deere quality plus the uncertainty of the agriculture cycle.
$760 to $830
More likely if large agriculture bottoms, Construction & Forestry remains resilient, Small Agriculture & Turf keeps growing, tariff recovery and price-cost actions protect margins, and investors pay around 30x recovered earnings.
$490 to $550
More likely if EPS compounds in the mid-single-digit range, FY2026 is a trough year, and the market values Deere closer to a mid-20s cyclical industrial multiple.
$220 to $270
More likely if large-ag demand keeps falling, used equipment values weaken, credit costs rise, tariffs hurt margins, and investors re-rate DE toward a mid-teens earnings multiple.
DE AI technical analysis
DE AI technical analysis is mixed as of the July 8, 2026 cutoff. StockAnalysis listed a July 7 close of $603.61, a 50-day moving average near $579.31, a 200-day moving average near $535.28, RSI near 51.90, and 20-day average volume near 1.27 million shares. Investing.com showed a more cautious 50-day reference near $621.98 and 200-day near $587.52, so the useful framework is to separate a reclaim of the low-$620s from a deeper reset toward the mid-$500s.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $603.61 | Current market-data reference used for valuation and market-cap checks at the July 8, 2026 data cutoff. |
| Immediate support | $590 to $600 | This zone brackets the recent close and a short-term area where buyers need to stabilize the pullback. |
| Moving-average support | $579 to $588 | This band overlaps StockAnalysis 50-day data and Investing.com 200-day data, making it an important first support area. |
| Deeper support | $535 to $550 | This area brackets the StockAnalysis 200-day moving-average reference and would represent a larger trend reset. |
| Near resistance | $620 to $625 | A reclaim of the low-$620s would improve short-term trend quality after the pullback. |
| Moving averages | 50-day near $579.31 to $621.98, 200-day near $535.28 to $587.52 | Different technical vendors show different moving-average references, so the page treats them as a range rather than a single exact trigger. |
| Momentum | RSI near 51.90 on StockAnalysis and 39.823 on Investing.com | Momentum is not uniformly bullish across sources, which supports a wait-for-confirmation framework. |
| Volume | 20-day average near 1.27 million shares | Volume confirmation matters because the stock is testing trend support after a strong one-year advance. |
| Volatility | Watch Q3 earnings, large ag demand, tariffs, and credit quality | The next earnings update can change the trend quickly because fiscal 2026 guidance still depends on market recovery timing. |
| Invalidation | Close below $579, then below $535 for the major trend | A break below the 50-day area weakens the short-term setup. A break near the 200-day area would challenge the larger uptrend framework. |
DE AI trading strategy
The DE AI trading strategy below is a rules-based research framework, not personal advice. It connects trend behavior with large-ag demand, dealer inventory, used equipment values, tariffs, Financial Services credit quality, free cash flow, and valuation discipline.
Watch for DE to reclaim the $620 to $625 resistance band while Q3 results confirm better order quality, stable margins, and no deterioration in Financial Services credit.
A failed reclaim followed by a close below $579 should reduce trend confidence, especially if management points to weaker large-ag demand or higher tariff costs.
If DE pulls back toward the $490 to $550 base-case zone without a collapse in cash flow, dealer health, or precision agriculture adoption, compare the lower price with long-term franchise quality.
Do not treat a lower price as automatically attractive if used equipment prices weaken, credit losses rise, or large-ag replacement demand keeps moving lower.
Track Production & Precision Ag sales, Small Agriculture & Turf margins, Construction & Forestry growth, Financial Services net income, operating cash flow, dealer inventory, tariffs, buybacks, and dividend coverage.
Position sizing should reflect that DE is a high-quality cyclical, not a guaranteed compounding stock at any price.
Investment research summary
Customers pay Deere because farms, contractors, foresters, landscapers, and fleet owners need reliable machines, parts, service, financing, precision data, and uptime that can improve productivity in high-cost field operations.
The moat is strongest in the John Deere brand, dealer network, installed base, parts availability, machine data, precision agriculture software, financing relationships, and customer switching costs. It narrows when farm income falls and buyers delay replacement cycles.
The thesis fails if the large-ag downturn lasts longer than expected, dealer inventories rise, tariffs erode margins, used equipment values fall, credit losses increase, or the stock multiple compresses before earnings recover.
John May has emphasized the Smart Industrial strategy, precision technology, production discipline, and customer productivity. The management test is whether Deere can invest through the cycle without overpaying for buybacks or masking Financial Services risk.
Deere benefits from farm automation, precision agriculture, food productivity needs, infrastructure work, construction equipment demand, and lifecycle service revenue. The offset is exposure to crop prices, farmer income, interest rates, tariffs, and equipment financing cycles.
At $603.61, the market is paying for a recovery in Deere earnings before large agriculture has fully turned. Margin of safety improves if the stock resets toward the base-case range or if EPS growth proves strong enough to absorb the current multiple.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| DE quote reference | $603.61 close on July 7, 2026 | StockAnalysis DE statistics | July 8, 2026 |
| Market capitalization verification | $162.94 billion reported, $162.94 billion calculated from $603.61 x 269.94 million shares | Pineify financial_rigor.py and StockAnalysis statistics | July 8, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding | 269.94 million shares outstanding | StockAnalysis DE statistics | July 8, 2026 |
| FY2025 revenue and net income | $45.684 billion net sales and revenues and $5.027 billion net income attributable to Deere & Company | Deere FY2025 fourth-quarter earnings release | July 8, 2026 |
| FY2025 revenue cross-check | $45.684 billion annual revenue, matching Deere release, StockAnalysis, and Macrotrends cross-checks | Macrotrends DE revenue history | July 8, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 results | $13.369 billion net sales and revenues, $1.773 billion net income, and $6.55 diluted EPS | Deere Q2 2026 results release | July 8, 2026 |
| FY2026 net income outlook | $4.5 billion to $5.0 billion management forecast | Deere Q2 2026 results release | July 8, 2026 |
| Cash, short-term investments, and debt | $9.335 billion cash and short-term investments, $63.822 billion total debt, and $54.487 billion net debt on a TTM basis | StockAnalysis DE balance sheet | July 8, 2026 |
| Valuation ratios | 34.20x trailing PE, 30.45x forward PE, 3.44x PS, 5.95x PB, and 43.24x P/FCF | StockAnalysis DE statistics and Pineify financial_rigor.py | July 8, 2026 |
| Technical references | 50-day moving average near $579.31, 200-day near $535.28, RSI near 51.90, and 20-day average volume near 1.27 million shares | StockAnalysis DE statistics | July 8, 2026 |
This DE AI stock analysis page is an informational research tool only. It is not investment advice, a recommendation to buy or sell Deere & Company stock, or a promise of future performance. Forecast scenarios are based on available public data at the stated cutoff date and may be wrong.
