Cummins Inc. research snapshot
CMI AI stock analysis currently reads Cummins as a durable power, engine, components, distribution, and power-generation franchise that is benefiting from stronger data center backup power demand and an improving North America on-highway cycle. The caution is valuation. At the July 8, 2026 data cutoff, CMI traded near $660.14, about 34.29x TTM EPS and 2.69x sales, after a strong one-year rally. The CMI AI stock forecast is therefore scenario-based: upside depends on Power Systems strength, better truck markets, and margin execution, while downside appears if the market re-rates the stock closer to normal industrial multiples or hydrogen and tariff costs keep weighing on earnings.
Current price
$660.14
Market cap
$91.09 billion verified market cap
AI score
58 / 100
Rating
High-quality powertrain and power systems franchise with valuation and truck-cycle risk
Trend status
Long-term uptrend intact, short-term pullback below recent moving-average support
Data cutoff (updated weekly)
July 8, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Cummins sells mission-critical engines, powertrains, components, distribution services, generators, batteries, fuel cells, and power systems across commercial, industrial, mining, construction, marine, rail, and data center markets. | High |
| Moat | Brand trust, emissions know-how, installed base service demand, dealer and distributor reach, engineering scale, and customer uptime needs create a solid industrial moat. | High |
| Management | Jennifer Rumsey has kept the portfolio focused on power solutions and shareholder returns, but the Accelera charges show that zero-emissions capital allocation still needs discipline. | Medium-high |
| Financial trend | FY2025 sales fell 1% to $33.67 billion and net income fell to $2.843 billion, while Q1 2026 sales rose 3% to $8.398 billion and full-year revenue guidance was raised to 8% to 11% growth. | High |
| Valuation | At $660.14, CMI screens expensive at 34.29x TTM EPS, 7.38x book value, 38.18x FY2025 free cash flow per share, and 2.69x sales using audited tool inputs. | High |
| Technical trend | The stock remains far above its 200-day moving average, but it has slipped below the 20-day and 50-day zones, so near-term trend confidence depends on reclaiming the high-$670s to high-$680s. | Medium |
| Risk level | Key risks are multiple compression, North America truck demand, tariff costs, emissions regulation, hydrogen adoption delays, Accelera losses, and any slowdown in data center power orders. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | Descriptive confidence is high because company and third-party data agree. Forecast confidence is lower because valuation, cycle timing, and sentiment are unstable. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | CMI is a high-quality cyclical franchise, but the current price offers a modest margin of safety unless earnings growth and Power Systems demand stay strong. | Medium |
CMI AI stock forecast
The CMI AI stock forecast uses the $660.14 price reference, TTM EPS near $19.25, and a three-year scenario model. The audited model produced a bullish area near $901, a base area near $582, and a bearish area near $290 before dividends. That wide range reflects the gap between strong business quality and a market price that already assumes better 2026 growth.
$860 to $930
More likely if Power Systems keeps compounding on data center demand, North America on-highway markets improve, FY2026 revenue grows near the high end of guidance, EBITDA margin approaches 18.5%, and investors keep paying about 30x forward earnings.
$540 to $620
More likely if EPS compounds in the high-single-digit range but the market values Cummins closer to a mid-20s industrial multiple after the rally cools.
$270 to $320
More likely if truck demand weakens again, tariff and regulatory costs pressure margins, Accelera losses persist, data center power demand normalizes, and investors re-rate CMI toward a mid-teens cyclical multiple.
CMI AI technical analysis
CMI AI technical analysis is mixed as of the July 8, 2026 cutoff. StockAnalysis listed a July 7 close of $660.14, a 50-day moving average near $677.15, a 200-day moving average near $558.80, RSI near 45.59, and 20-day average volume near 1.11 million shares. Barchart showed the 20-day moving average near $686.05, 50-day near $677.14, 200-day near $558.80, and 14-day relative strength near 45.59. The useful setup is to separate a reclaim of the $677 to $686 band from a deeper reset toward the 200-day area.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $660.14 | Current market-data reference used for valuation and market-cap checks at the July 8, 2026 data cutoff. |
| Immediate support | $650 to $660 | This zone brackets the July 7 close and the first area where buyers need to stabilize the pullback. |
| Moving-average resistance | $677 to $686 | The 50-day and 20-day moving-average references sit in this band, so a reclaim would improve short-term trend quality. |
| Deeper support | $555 to $565 | This area brackets the 200-day moving-average reference near $558.80 and would represent a larger trend reset. |
| Near resistance | $700 to $720 | A move back above the high-$600s would need follow-through through this area to confirm renewed upside momentum. |
| Momentum | RSI near 45.59 | Momentum is below neutral after the pullback, but it is not an extreme oversold reading. |
| Volume | 20-day average near 1.11 million shares | Volume confirmation matters because the stock is testing support after a large one-year advance. |
| Volatility | Watch Q2 earnings, guidance, truck demand, tariffs, and Power Systems orders | The next earnings update can change the trend quickly because expectations already price in stronger 2026 growth. |
| Invalidation | Close below $650, then below $558 for the major trend | A break below $650 weakens the short-term setup. A break near the 200-day area would challenge the larger uptrend framework. |
CMI AI trading strategy
The CMI AI trading strategy below is a rules-based research framework, not personal advice. It connects trend behavior with Power Systems demand, North America on-highway recovery, tariff costs, Accelera losses, free cash flow, dividend coverage, and valuation discipline.
Watch for CMI to reclaim the $677 to $686 moving-average band while Q2 results confirm Power Systems strength, higher 2026 revenue guidance, and resilient EBITDA margin.
A failed reclaim followed by a close below $650 should reduce trend confidence, especially if earnings commentary points to truck-market weakness, tariff pressure, or slowing data center power orders.
If CMI pulls back toward the $540 to $620 base-case zone without a collapse in Power Systems orders, truck recovery, free cash flow, or dividend coverage, compare the lower price with long-term service network quality.
Do not treat a lower price as automatically attractive if hydrogen losses remain elevated, debt rises, or the company keeps buying stock at valuation levels that dilute future returns.
Track Power Systems sales and EBITDA, Distribution growth, Engine and Components demand, North America truck orders, China and India demand, Accelera losses, operating cash flow, buybacks, and dividend coverage.
Position sizing should reflect that CMI is a cyclical industrial with high-quality service economics, not a pure data center power compounder.
Investment research summary
Customers pay Cummins because commercial vehicles, industrial equipment, power generation sites, fleets, mines, rail systems, marine assets, and data centers need reliable power, uptime, parts, service, emissions compliance, and lifecycle support.
The moat is strongest in the Cummins brand, installed base, distributor network, emissions and engine engineering, parts availability, power generation know-how, and customer cost of downtime. It is not immune to cycles because fleets and industrial buyers can delay equipment purchases.
The thesis fails if data center power demand is pulled forward, North America truck recovery stalls, tariff costs erode margins, emissions rules raise complexity, hydrogen adoption stays weak, or investors compress the multiple while EPS growth slows.
Jennifer Rumsey has emphasized Destination Zero, power solutions, disciplined cost management, and shareholder returns. The management test is whether leadership can keep investing for energy transition while reducing Accelera losses and avoiding expensive buybacks.
Cummins benefits from infrastructure electrification, backup power for data centers, stricter emissions needs, fleet renewal, mining and construction activity, and long-term energy transition spending. The offset is exposure to truck cycles, commodity demand, regulation, and interest-rate-sensitive capital spending.
At $660.14, the market is paying for stronger 2026 revenue growth, high Power Systems margins, and better truck demand. Margin of safety improves if the stock resets toward the base-case valuation range or if EPS growth proves strong enough to absorb the current multiple.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| CMI quote reference | $660.14 close on July 7, 2026 | StockAnalysis CMI statistics | July 8, 2026 |
| Market capitalization verification | $91.09 billion reported, $91.09 billion calculated from $660.14 x 137.99 million shares | Pineify financial_rigor.py and StockAnalysis statistics | July 8, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding | 137.99 million shares outstanding | StockAnalysis CMI statistics | July 8, 2026 |
| FY2025 revenue and net income | $33.670 billion net sales and $2.843 billion net income attributable to Cummins Inc. | Cummins FY2025 results release | July 8, 2026 |
| FY2025 revenue cross-check | $33.67 billion annual revenue, matching Cummins release, Macrotrends, and StockAnalysis cross-checks | Macrotrends CMI revenue history | July 8, 2026 |
| Cash and marketable securities | $3.609 billion cash, cash equivalents, and marketable securities at December 31, 2025 | Cummins FY2025 results release and Macrotrends cash on hand | July 8, 2026 |
| Debt reference | $313 million loans payable, $353 million commercial paper, $94 million current maturities, and $6.792 billion long-term debt at December 31, 2025 | Cummins FY2025 balance sheet | July 8, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 sales and earnings | $8.398 billion sales, $654 million GAAP net income, $4.71 diluted EPS, and $6.15 adjusted EPS | Cummins Q1 2026 results release | July 8, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 segment demand | Power Systems sales rose 19% to $2.0 billion and segment EBITDA margin reached 29.5%, driven by data center power generation demand | Cummins Q1 2026 results release | July 8, 2026 |
| Valuation ratios | 34.29x PE, 2.69x sales, 7.38x book value, 34.10x StockAnalysis P/FCF, and 19.21x EV/EBITDA | StockAnalysis CMI statistics | July 8, 2026 |
| Technical references | 50-day moving average near $677.15, 200-day moving average near $558.80, RSI near 45.59, and 20-day average volume near 1.11 million shares | StockAnalysis CMI statistics and Barchart technical analysis | July 8, 2026 |
| Three-scenario valuation audit | Pineify financial_rigor.py model: bullish $901, base $582, bearish $290 using $19.25 EPS, three-year growth cases, and 30x, 24x, 16x target PE assumptions | Pineify financial_rigor.py scenario model | July 8, 2026 |
This CMI AI stock analysis is an informational research tool only and is not investment advice, a recommendation, or a promise of return. Forecast scenarios are based on available public data as of July 8, 2026, and may be wrong if Cummins fundamentals, technical conditions, regulation, tariffs, rates, or market sentiment change.
