Cummins Inc. research snapshot
CMI AI stock analysis reads Cummins as a durable power, engine, components, distribution, and power-generation franchise that is benefiting from stronger data center backup and prime power demand, an improving North America on-highway cycle, and raised long-term financial targets. The caution is valuation and event risk. At the August 2, 2026 data cutoff, CMI closed at $634.20 on July 31, 2026, about 32.94x TTM EPS, after a strong 12-month rally that is up 73.52% over the past 52 weeks. Q2 2026 results are scheduled for August 4, 2026, before the market open, which makes the near-term setup binary. The CMI AI stock forecast is therefore scenario-based: upside depends on Power Systems momentum, better truck markets, margin execution, and the August 4 report, while downside appears if the market re-rates the stock toward normal industrial multiples or tariff, emissions, and Accelera costs keep weighing on earnings.
Current price
$634.20
Market cap
$87.51 billion verified market cap
AI score
60 / 100
Rating
Durable power franchise, valuation and near-term earnings-event risk
Trend status
Long-term uptrend intact, short-term pullback below key moving averages
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Cummins sells mission-critical engines, powertrains, components, distribution services, generators, batteries, fuel cells, and power systems across commercial, industrial, mining, construction, marine, rail, and data center markets. | High |
| Moat | Brand trust, emissions know-how, installed base service demand, dealer and distributor reach, engineering scale, and customer uptime needs create a solid industrial moat. | High |
| Management | Jennifer Rumsey and CFO Mark Smith raised long-term expectations to $45 to $50 billion of 2030 revenue with more than 20% EBITDA margin, while the dividend rose 10% to $2.20 per share per quarter. The Accelera charges still show that zero-emissions capital allocation needs discipline. | Medium-high |
| Financial trend | FY2025 sales fell 1.27% to $33.67 billion and net income fell to $2.843 billion, while TTM sales reached $33.89 billion and Q1 2026 sales rose 2.74% year over year to $8.398 billion with diluted EPS of $4.71. | High |
| Valuation | At $634.20, CMI screens expensive on trailing measures at 32.94x TTM EPS, 2.58x sales, 7.09x book value, and 32.76x trailing free cash flow, while the forward PE near 20.67x reflects the expected FY2026 earnings jump. | High |
| Technical trend | The stock holds well above its 200-day moving average near $579.54, but it has slipped below the 20-day, 50-day, and 100-day zones, so near-term trend confidence depends on reclaiming the $656 to $669 area. | Medium |
| Risk level | Key risks are multiple compression, North America truck demand, tariffs, EPA 2027 emissions timing, hydrogen adoption delays, Accelera losses, and the August 4, 2026 Q2 report, which can move the stock sharply. | High |
| AI confidence | Descriptive confidence is high because company and third-party data agree. Forecast confidence is lower because valuation, cycle timing, and the upcoming earnings event are unstable. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | CMI is a high-quality cyclical franchise, but the current price offers a modest margin of safety unless earnings growth and Power Systems demand keep proving out after the August 4 report. | Medium |
CMI AI stock forecast
The CMI AI stock forecast uses the $634.20 price reference, TTM EPS near $19.25, and a three-year scenario model. The financial-rigor model produced a bullish value near $820, a base value near $582, and a bearish value near $281 before dividends. Consensus data points to FY2026 revenue near $37.27 billion and adjusted EPS near $29.27, which is why the forward PE is much lower than the trailing PE.
$760 to $860
More likely if Power Systems keeps compounding on data center demand, North America on-highway markets improve, Q2 2026 confirms the raised 2030 targets, FY2026 revenue grows near the 10.7% consensus, and investors keep paying near 25x to 28x forward earnings. Wells Fargo at $874 and Truist at $901 sit in this range.
$560 to $620
More likely if EPS compounds at a mid-to-high-single-digit pace and the market values Cummins closer to a low-20s forward multiple after the rally cools. Morgan Stanley at $761 and Barclays at $760 are above this range, while the model base value sits near $582.
$270 to $320
More likely if truck demand weakens again, tariff and EPA 2027 costs pressure margins, Accelera losses persist, data center power demand normalizes, and investors re-rate CMI toward a mid-teens cyclical multiple. The lowest analyst target is $520, which is above this stress range.
CMI AI technical analysis
CMI AI technical analysis is mixed as of the August 2, 2026 cutoff. StockAnalysis and Barchart both placed the July 31, 2026 close near $634.20, the 50-day moving average near $668.74, the 200-day moving average near $579.54, and 14-day RSI near 43.10. Barchart showed the 5-day average near $635.32, 20-day near $656.31, 100-day near $639.75, and a 14-day ADX near 21.58 with negative directional movement above positive, confirming a short-term pullback inside a larger uptrend. The useful setup is to separate a reclaim of the $656 to $669 band from a deeper reset toward the 200-day area.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $634.20 | Current market-data reference used for valuation and market-cap checks at the August 2, 2026 data cutoff, based on the July 31, 2026 close. |
| Immediate support | $620 to $635 | This zone brackets the July 31 close and the 5-day moving-average area near $635.32 where buyers need to stabilize the pullback. |
| Moving-average resistance | $656 to $669 | The 20-day average near $656.31 and the 50-day average near $668.74 sit in this band, so a reclaim would improve short-term trend quality. |
| Deeper support | $575 to $585 | This area brackets the 200-day moving-average reference near $579.54 and would represent a larger trend reset. |
| Near resistance | $700 to $738 | The 52-week high near $737.76 is the main upside obstacle, and a move above the high-$600s would need follow-through through this area. |
| Momentum | RSI near 43.10 | Barchart and StockAnalysis both show 14-day RSI near 43.10, below neutral after the pullback but not an extreme oversold reading. |
| Trend strength | ADX near 21.58 with -DI above +DI | Barchart reported a 14-day ADX near 21.58, negative directional movement near 28.33 above positive near 15.23, confirming a short-term downtrend without strong conviction. |
| Volume | 20-day average near 870,000 to 892,000 shares | Volume confirmation matters because the stock is testing support ahead of the August 4 earnings report after a large one-year advance. |
| Volatility | 14-day historical volatility near 39% with ATR near $26 | Barchart reported 14-day historical volatility near 39.11% and a 14-day ATR near $26.21, so the August 4 Q2 report can create large gaps. |
| Invalidation | Close below $620, then below $580 for the major trend | A break below $620 weakens the short-term setup. A break near the 200-day area around $580 would challenge the larger uptrend framework. |
CMI AI trading strategy
The CMI AI trading strategy below is a rules-based research framework, not personal advice. It connects trend behavior with the August 4, 2026 Q2 report, Power Systems demand, North America on-highway recovery, tariff and EPA 2027 costs, Accelera losses, free cash flow, dividend coverage, and valuation discipline.
Watch for CMI to reclaim the $656 to $669 moving-average band and for the August 4 Q2 report to confirm Power Systems strength, intact FY2026 revenue growth near the 10.7% consensus, and resilient EBITDA margin.
A failed reclaim followed by a close below $620 should reduce trend confidence, especially if the Q2 commentary points to truck-market weakness, tariff pressure, or slowing data center power orders.
If CMI pulls back toward the $575 to $620 zone without a collapse in Power Systems orders, truck recovery, free cash flow, or dividend coverage, compare the lower price with long-term service network quality and the raised 2030 targets.
Do not treat a lower price as automatically attractive if hydrogen losses remain elevated, debt rises, or the company keeps buying stock at valuation levels that dilute future returns.
Track Power Systems sales and EBITDA, Distribution growth, Engine and Components demand, North America truck orders, EPA 2027 timing, Accelera losses, operating cash flow, buybacks, and dividend coverage, especially at the August 4 Q2 report.
Position sizing should reflect that CMI is a cyclical industrial with high-quality service economics, not a pure data center power compounder, and that the near-term setup is binary around earnings.
Investment research summary
Customers pay Cummins because commercial vehicles, industrial equipment, power generation sites, fleets, mines, rail systems, marine assets, and data centers need reliable power, uptime, parts, service, emissions compliance, and lifecycle support.
The moat is strongest in the Cummins brand, installed base, distributor network, emissions and engine engineering, parts availability, power generation know-how, and customer cost of downtime. It is not immune to cycles because fleets and industrial buyers can delay equipment purchases.
The thesis fails if data center power demand is pulled forward, North America truck recovery stalls, tariff and EPA 2027 costs erode margins, hydrogen adoption stays weak, or investors compress the multiple while EPS growth slows. The August 4 Q2 report is the next test.
Jennifer Rumsey and CFO Mark Smith raised 2030 targets to $45 to $50 billion of revenue and more than 20% EBITDA margin and lifted the quarterly dividend 10% to $2.20. The management test is whether leadership can keep investing for energy transition while reducing Accelera losses and avoiding expensive buybacks.
Cummins benefits from infrastructure electrification, backup and prime power for data centers, stricter emissions needs, fleet renewal, mining and construction activity, and long-term energy transition spending. The offset is exposure to truck cycles, commodity demand, regulation, and interest-rate-sensitive capital spending.
At $634.20, the market is paying for stronger FY2026 revenue growth near 10.7%, high Power Systems margins, and better truck demand. Margin of safety improves if the stock resets toward the base-case valuation range or if EPS growth proves strong enough to absorb the current multiple after Q2 results.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| CMI quote reference | $634.20 close on July 31, 2026, $634.90 after hours | StockAnalysis CMI overview | August 1, 2026 |
| Market capitalization verification | $87.51 billion reported, $87.51 billion calculated from $634.20 x 137.99 million shares with 0.00% deviation | Pineify financial_rigor.py and StockAnalysis statistics | August 2, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding | 137.99 million shares outstanding | StockAnalysis CMI statistics | August 1, 2026 |
| FY2025 revenue and net income | $33.670 billion net sales, down 1.27%, and $2.843 billion net income attributable to Cummins Inc. | StockAnalysis CMI income statement | August 1, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 sales and earnings | $8.398 billion sales, up 2.74% year over year, $654 million net income to common, and $4.71 diluted EPS | StockAnalysis CMI income statement quarterly | August 1, 2026 |
| TTM financial totals | $33.89 billion revenue, $2.67 billion net income, $19.25 EPS, $3.93 billion operating cash flow, and $2.67 billion free cash flow over TTM | StockAnalysis CMI statistics | August 1, 2026 |
| TTM segment revenue | Engine $8.03 billion, Components $8.51 billion, Distribution $12.59 billion, Power Systems $4.335 billion, and Accelera $425 million | StockAnalysis CMI financials segment breakdown | July 30, 2026 |
| Cash and debt | $3.18 billion cash and investments, $8.24 billion total debt, and net cash of -$5.06 billion, or -$36.66 per share, at current TTM figures | StockAnalysis CMI statistics balance sheet | August 1, 2026 |
| Dividend update | Quarterly dividend raised 10% to $2.20 per share, payable September 3, 2026, to shareholders of record August 21, 2026 | Cummins press release and StockAnalysis dividend data | July 13, 2026 |
| Valuation ratios | 32.94x PE, 20.67x forward PE, 2.58x sales, 7.09x book value, 32.76x P/FCF, and 18.67x EV/EBITDA | StockAnalysis CMI statistics and financial_rigor.py | August 1, 2026 |
| Efficiency and strength | ROE 21.99%, ROIC 15.81%, Altman Z-Score 4.24, and Piotroski F-Score 6 | StockAnalysis CMI statistics | August 1, 2026 |
| 52-week and technical references | 52-week range $354.68 to $737.76, 50-day moving average near $668.74, 200-day moving average near $579.54, and RSI near 43.10 | StockAnalysis CMI statistics and Barchart technical analysis | July 31, 2026 |
| Barchart technical detail | 5-day average near $635.32, 20-day near $656.31, 100-day near $639.75, ADX near 21.58, 14-day ATR near $26.21, and 14-day historical volatility near 39.11% | Barchart technical analysis | July 31, 2026 |
| Analyst consensus | Buy rating with an average target of $754.86 across 22 analysts, low $520 and high $901, median $760 | StockAnalysis CMI forecast | July 21, 2026 |
| Analyst rating mix, July 2026 | 10 Strong Buy, 4 Buy, 7 Hold, and 1 Sell out of 22 analysts | StockAnalysis CMI forecast recommendation trends | July 21, 2026 |
| Recent analyst target updates | Wells Fargo $874 on July 21, Barclays $760 on July 20, Morgan Stanley $761 on July 17, Citi $790 on July 14, UBS $850 on July 7, and Truist $901 | StockAnalysis CMI forecast and TipRanks | July 21, 2026 |
| Consensus financial forecast | FY2026 revenue estimate $37.27 billion, up 10.70%, with adjusted EPS $29.27, up 23.10%; FY2027 revenue $40.14 billion with EPS $34.12 | StockAnalysis CMI forecast | July 21, 2026 |
| Short interest | 2.35 million shares short, 1.70% of shares outstanding, 2.08 days to cover, down from 2.56 million the prior month | StockAnalysis CMI statistics short selling | August 1, 2026 |
| Earnings date | Q2 2026 results scheduled for August 4, 2026, before market open | StockAnalysis CMI statistics important dates | August 1, 2026 |
| Three-scenario valuation audit | Pineify financial_rigor.py model: bullish $820, base $582, bearish $281 using $19.25 EPS, three-year growth cases of 15%, 8%, and -3%, and 28x, 24x, and 16x target PE assumptions | Pineify financial_rigor.py scenario model | August 2, 2026 |
This CMI AI stock analysis is an informational research tool only and is not investment advice, a recommendation, or a promise of return. Forecast scenarios are based on available public data as of August 2, 2026, and may be wrong if Cummins fundamentals, the August 4 Q2 report, technical conditions, regulation, tariffs, rates, or market sentiment change.
Design trading strategies visually with 10+ indicators. Set entry/exit conditions and risk management, then generate Pine Script code with no coding required.
Filter and discover stocks based on market cap, dividend yield, P/E ratio, sector, and more. Screen thousands of stocks with real-time data.
Smart AI-driven stock selection with fundamental screening, analyst estimates, and key metrics. Filter by P/E, market cap, dividends, and more.
