Bullish case
$54 to $58
More likely if Normalized FFO grows about 8% annually for three years, new assets continue to earn high-single-digit stabilized yields, and investors assign a 22x terminal FFO multiple. The verified model produced $56.0.
CareTrust REIT, Inc. research snapshot
CTRE AI Stock Analysis
CTRE AI stock analysis currently reads CareTrust REIT as a healthcare real estate platform with skilled nursing, senior housing, UK care homes, loans, and a new SHOP operating channel. At the July 12, 2026 cutoff, the latest verified close used here was $40.22 and the market capitalization was about $9.50 billion. Q1 2026 Normalized FFO and Normalized FAD were both $0.48 per diluted share, while raised 2026 guidance points to Normalized FFO of $2.00 to $2.04 per share. The central question is whether CareTrust can keep converting high-yield investments and operator relationships into per-share growth without relying too heavily on equity issuance. This page is informational research and not investment advice.
Current price
$40.22
Market cap
$9.50 billion
AI score
76 / 100
Rating
Fast-growing healthcare REIT with strong reported coverage and low net leverage, balanced by dilution, operator concentration, and a full FFO multiple
Trend status
Above the 50-day and 200-day moving averages, with neutral RSI after a 29.87% 52-week gain
Data cutoff (updated weekly)
July 12, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
Research quality check
- information Richness
- A-level information richness. CareTrust has SEC filings, quarterly supplements, an operating history since 2014, public operator data, and liquid market data. Some property-level coverage data is operator supplied rather than independently audited.
- bias Check
- The main AI bias risk is extrapolating recent acquisition growth and management optimism while under-weighting share issuance, operator concentration, reimbursement policy, UK currency exposure, and the possibility that a higher FFO multiple already reflects much of the growth story.
- ai Confidence
- High for reported financial data, share-count math, valuation arithmetic, company guidance, and technical inputs. Medium for future acquisition yields, operator health, reimbursement policy, and the durability of the current multiple.
- investment Certainty
- Medium. The balance sheet and investment pipeline are visible, but the long-term outcome depends on tenant performance, capital costs, dilution discipline, and whether new assets earn more than their funding costs.
Quick verdict table
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | CareTrust owns and finances healthcare real estate, mainly skilled nursing and senior housing, through long-term net leases, loans, and a small SHOP platform. The model is recurring, but rent depends on operators that must remain financially healthy. | High |
| Moat | The moat comes from healthcare underwriting experience, operator relationships, sourcing scale, public capital access, and specialized knowledge of regulated properties. It is a relationship and execution moat, not a technology monopoly. | Medium-high |
| Management | CEO Dave Sedgwick brings operating experience from Ensign, while CFO Derek Bunker has healthcare and investment experience. The key test is whether management can fund rapid growth while protecting per-share FFO and balance-sheet flexibility. | Medium-high |
| Financial trend | FY2025 revenue was $476.393 million and net income was $320.286 million. Q1 2026 revenue rose to $142.783 million, Normalized FFO per share rose 14% year over year to $0.48, and Normalized FAD per share rose 12% to $0.48. | High |
| Valuation | At $40.22, CTRE traded at about 25.62x trailing EPS, 2.21x book value, 18.18x TTM sales, and 19.91x the midpoint of 2026 Normalized FFO guidance. The verified three-scenario model produced $56.0 in the bull case, $40.9 in the base case, and $24.2 in the bear case. | Medium-high |
| Technical trend | CTRE is above the 50-day moving average near $39.75 and the 200-day moving average near $37.84. RSI near 52.55 is neutral, so the chart is constructive but not a strong momentum signal. | Medium-high |
| Risk level | Risk is moderate to elevated. The main risks are operator distress, healthcare reimbursement, interest rates, equity dilution, UK currency exposure, acquisition integration, and tenant or geography concentration. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | Confidence is high for historical filings, Q1 results, guidance, the $40.22 close, the $9.50 billion market-cap check, and the technical snapshot. Confidence is medium for the forecast because it depends on a non-GAAP FFO proxy and assumptions about growth and multiples. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | Investment certainty is medium. The business has attractive growth inputs and a low reported net-debt ratio, but the current price leaves limited room for execution mistakes if dilution or operator credit worsens. | Medium |
CTRE AI stock forecast
CTRE AI Stock Forecast Scenarios
The CTRE AI stock forecast uses Normalized FFO per share as the primary REIT earnings proxy, then tests growth and terminal multiples. The bullish case becomes more likely if investment activity continues near the 8.8% to 8.9% stabilized yields reported in Q1, operator coverage remains healthy, Moody's investment-grade upgrade lowers funding costs, and share issuance remains accretive. The bearish case becomes more likely if rates rise, operator coverage falls, acquisition spreads narrow, or new equity issuance outpaces FFO growth.
Base case
$39 to $42
More likely if Normalized FFO grows about 4% annually, Q1 guidance is delivered, leverage stays controlled, and the market applies an 18x terminal multiple. The verified model produced $40.9, close to the $40.22 reference price.
Bearish case
$23 to $26
More likely if Normalized FFO declines about 5% annually because operator or reimbursement pressure reduces rent growth, funding costs rise, and the terminal multiple compresses to 14x. The verified model produced $24.2.
CTRE AI technical analysis
CTRE AI Technical Analysis
CTRE AI technical analysis starts from the $40.22 close on July 10, 2026. StockAnalysis reported a 50-day moving average of $39.75, a 200-day moving average of $37.84, RSI of 52.55, average 20-day volume of 3.47 million shares, beta of 0.79, and a 52-week price change of 29.87%. These are a dated snapshot and should be refreshed after earnings, rate decisions, and material operator news.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $40.22 | Latest verified regular-session close used for this page, reported for July 10, 2026. |
| Near support | $39.50 to $40.00 | This zone surrounds the 50-day moving average near $39.75. Holding it keeps the short-term trend constructive. |
| Secondary support | $37.50 to $38.00 | This zone surrounds the 200-day moving average near $37.84 and is the key medium-term trend reference. |
| Resistance | $41.50 to $43.00 | This is a watch zone above the current price after a strong 52-week gain. A move through it would need volume and FFO confirmation. |
| 50-day moving average | $39.75 | CTRE is slightly above this level. A close below it would reduce short-term trend confidence. |
| 200-day moving average | $37.84 | A decisive close below this level would shift the medium-term setup toward risk-off conditions. |
| Momentum | RSI 52.55 | Momentum is neutral. It does not confirm an overbought condition, but it also does not provide a strong upside signal. |
| Volume | 20-day average 3.47 million shares | A breakout above resistance would be more credible if volume expands rather than fades near the recent highs. |
| Volatility | Beta 0.79; 52-week price change +29.87% | Reported beta is below the broad market average, but healthcare REIT shares can still react sharply to rates, credit spreads, and tenant news. |
| Invalidation | Close below $37.84 or lower FFO guidance | A break below the 200-day moving average, weaker operator coverage, or a lower 2026 guide would weaken the base case. |
CTRE AI trading strategy
CTRE AI Trading Strategy Framework
The CTRE AI trading strategy is a rules-based research framework, not personalized advice. It should be monitored through live price, moving averages, quarterly Normalized FFO and FAD, investment yields, operator concentration, rent collection, dividend coverage, leverage, debt costs, UK currency exposure, and reimbursement news.
Trend-following setup
Track whether CTRE holds the $39.50 to $40.00 area and then clears the $41.50 to $43.00 resistance zone with improving volume. Confirmation improves if quarterly FFO stays on the $2.00 to $2.04 2026 guidance path and investment yields remain accretive.
Reduce confidence if price closes below the 50-day moving average near $39.75, if volume expands on down days, or if healthcare REITs weaken together on higher rates.
Mean-reversion setup
Treat a pullback toward the $37.50 to $38.00 support area as a watchlist condition only if rent collection, operator coverage, dividend coverage, and the balance sheet remain intact.
Do not treat the dividend yield or a low reported net-debt ratio as a valuation floor. Equity issuance, operator distress, and higher financing costs can still compress the FFO multiple.
Fundamental monitor
Track Normalized FFO and FAD per share, payout ratio, contractual rent collection, investment volume, stabilized yields, tenant and borrower concentration, property additions, SHOP performance, debt maturities, and ATM issuance.
A combination of lower FFO guidance, weaker operator coverage, slower rent collection, higher funding costs, or a close below $37.84 would override a bullish chart setup.
Investment research summary
Four-master Research Compression
Business essence
CareTrust is paid to provide real estate capital to healthcare operators. Tenants pay rent under long-term net leases, borrowers pay interest on secured and mezzanine loans, and the SHOP platform adds operating exposure to senior housing. The customer pays because CareTrust supplies property capital and healthcare underwriting that operators may not want to fund alone. Question: if operators can access cheaper capital elsewhere, what protects CareTrust's rent and acquisition spreads?
Moat
The moat is strongest in scale, healthcare relationships, acquisition sourcing, public-market access, and specialized operating knowledge. Brand and switching costs are modest, network effects are indirect, and technology or patents are not central to the thesis. The moat can widen if CareTrust keeps its operator network healthy and compounds investment data, but it can narrow if capital becomes abundant or tenant quality weakens. Question: will these relationship and scale advantages still matter ten years from now?
Munger risk inversion
The thesis can fail through operator bankruptcy, weaker Medicaid or Medicare reimbursement, staffing costs, lease resets, acquisition integration mistakes, rate-driven multiple compression, UK currency losses, or equity issuance that grows assets faster than FFO per share. Ensign generated 17% of Q1 2026 revenue, while California and the UK each generated 17%, so concentration remains relevant. Question: where is an analyst most likely to confuse recent acquisition momentum with durable per-share economics?
Management
Dave Sedgwick is President and CEO and brings prior healthcare operating experience from Ensign. Derek Bunker became CFO in January 2026 after healthcare investment and strategy roles. Q1 2026 included $245.1 million of investment activity at an 8.8% stabilized yield, a 0.6x net-debt to annualized normalized run-rate EBITDA ratio, and a 16.4% year-over-year dividend increase. The capital-allocation test is whether acquisitions, debt, ATM equity, and dividends create durable FFO per share growth. Question: could the company maintain its edge if the current CEO and investment team left?
Industry trend
The long-term healthcare and senior-care trend is supported by aging demographics and rising demand for skilled nursing, assisted living, and memory care. CareTrust has three growth engines: US net leases, UK care homes, and SHOP. The cycle still depends on reimbursement rates, labor availability, operator margins, regulation, occupancy, and property-level capital needs. Question: when viewed from twenty years ahead, is CareTrust positioned as an essential owner of aging-related infrastructure or mainly as a leveraged landlord in a regulated cycle?
Valuation and margin of safety
The verified model used the $2.02 midpoint of 2026 Normalized FFO guidance as a REIT earnings proxy. It produced a $56.0 bull case, a $40.9 base case, and a $24.2 bear case. At $40.22, the base case implies little price upside before dividends, while the bear case shows material downside if FFO falls and the multiple contracts. Question: if the market closed for five years, would the current price still be attractive based on rent growth, operator quality, and per-share FFO rather than the recent stock chart?
Source-backed data
CTRE Data Table
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| CTRE price | $40.22 close on July 10, 2026 | StockAnalysis statistics page | July 12, 2026 |
| Market capitalization | About $9.50 billion, verified as approximately $40.22 x 236.240235 million shares; calculation variance versus reported market cap was 0.02% | StockAnalysis and financial_rigor.py market-cap verification | July 12, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding | 236.240235 million shares as of May 6, 2026 | CareTrust Q1 2026 Form 10-Q | July 12, 2026 |
| FY2025 revenue | $476.393 million from the SEC 10-K, cross-validated against Macrotrends at $476 million and StockAnalysis at $476.39 million; all differences were below 0.1% | SEC 10-K, Macrotrends, and StockAnalysis financials | July 12, 2026 |
| FY2025 net income | $320.286 million from the SEC 10-K, cross-validated against Macrotrends at $320 million and StockAnalysis at $320.29 million; all differences were below 0.1% | SEC 10-K, Macrotrends, and StockAnalysis financials | July 12, 2026 |
| Five-year financial trend | Revenue increased from $192.35 million in 2021 to $476.39 million in 2025. Net income moved from $71.98 million in 2021, to a $7.51 million loss in 2022, then $53.72 million in 2023, $124.40 million in 2024, and $320.29 million in 2025. | StockAnalysis annual financials and SEC 10-K | July 12, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 operating results | $142.783 million revenue, $80.210 million net income attributable to CareTrust, $107.448 million Normalized FFO, $107.6 million Normalized FAD, and $0.48 per diluted share for both Normalized FFO and FAD | CareTrust Q1 2026 results release and SEC 10-Q | July 12, 2026 |
| Cash, debt, and liquidity | $223.207 million cash and $894.646 million of senior notes plus term-loan debt as of March 31, 2026. Q1 company reporting showed 0.6x net debt to annualized normalized run-rate EBITDA and no scheduled debt maturities before 2028 at the May 7 update. | SEC 10-Q, CareTrust Q1 results release, and StockAnalysis | July 12, 2026 |
| Portfolio and lease model | The 2025 10-K reported 407 properties and 37,628 operational beds and units across 32 states and the UK. As of March 31, 2026, owned facilities were primarily leased under triple-net structures, with three senior housing communities managed through SHOP. | CareTrust 2025 Form 10-K and Q1 2026 Form 10-Q | July 12, 2026 |
| Operator and geography concentration | Ensign represented 17% of Q1 2026 revenue. California, the UK, and Texas represented 17%, 17%, and 11% of Q1 2026 revenue respectively, based on the company's stated revenue concentration method. | CareTrust Q1 2026 Form 10-Q | July 12, 2026 |
| 2026 guidance and investment activity | 2026 Normalized FFO guidance of $2.00 to $2.04 per share and Normalized FAD guidance of $1.98 to $2.02 per share. Q1 investment activity was $245.1 million at an 8.8% blended stabilized yield, with approximately $1.1 billion closed year to date by May 7. | CareTrust Q1 2026 results release | July 12, 2026 |
| Dividend and valuation | $0.39 quarterly dividend, or $1.56 annualized, equal to a 3.88% calculated yield at $40.22. Calculated trailing PE was 25.62x, PB was 2.21x, PS was 18.18x, and price to 2026 Normalized FFO midpoint was 19.91x. | CareTrust Q1 release, StockAnalysis, and financial_rigor.py valuation verification | July 12, 2026 |
| Technical indicators | 50-day MA $39.75, 200-day MA $37.84, RSI 52.55, 20-day average volume 3.47 million shares, beta 0.79, and 52-week price change +29.87% | StockAnalysis statistics page | July 12, 2026 |
| Three-scenario valuation model | Bull case $56.0, base case $40.9, and bear case $24.2 based on a 3-year Normalized FFO proxy of $2.02, annual growth assumptions of 8%, 4%, and negative 5%, and terminal multiples of 22x, 18x, and 14x | financial_rigor.py three-scenario calculation | July 12, 2026 |
| Data source gap | Normalized FFO and FAD are non-GAAP REIT measures and are more useful than standard free cash flow for this page, but they are not substitutes for net income. Operator coverage data is partly supplied by operators. Market cap uses price multiplied by shares, while debt and net-debt figures can differ by reporting convention. Technical indicators can also vary across providers and dates. | CareTrust filings, company disclosures, and StockAnalysis methodology | July 12, 2026 |
Frequently Asked Questions
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This CTRE AI stock analysis page is an informational tool only and is not investment advice, tax advice, or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Forecast ranges are scenarios based on available public data as of July 12, 2026 and may be wrong if financial results, rates, operator credit, reimbursement policy, acquisition spreads, financing costs, dilution, dividend policy, currency, or market conditions change.
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