Is CTRE a buy according to AI stock analysis?

CTRE AI stock analysis does not classify CareTrust REIT as an automatic buy because strong FFO growth, low reported net leverage, raised guidance, and an investment grade upgrade are balanced by operator concentration, equity dilution, healthcare policy, and a valuation near the top of the base-case scenario. A stronger bullish case would require CTRE to hold above the $38.41 support area while FFO guidance, rent collection, operator health, and investment spreads remain stable or improve.

What is the CTRE AI stock forecast?

The CTRE AI stock forecast uses a scenario range rather than a single price target. The base case is roughly $39 to $42, the bullish case is $54 to $58, and the bearish case is $23 to $26, with the main swing factors being Normalized FFO per share, acquisition yields, operator credit, funding costs, dilution, and the REIT multiple.

What technical levels matter for CTRE?

The key CTRE technical levels are near support around the 50-day moving average near $40.22, secondary support around the 200-day moving average near $38.41, and a resistance watch zone around $42.60 to $43.62, capped by the 52-week high. A close below $38.41 would weaken the medium-term setup, while a breakout through resistance would need volume and fundamental confirmation.

Can AI predict CTRE stock price?

No, AI cannot reliably predict stock prices. AI can organize CTRE financial data, FFO valuation ranges, technical levels, scenarios, and risk factors, but future returns depend on operator health, reimbursement rates, interest rates, acquisition spreads, management decisions, dilution, and new disclosures that can change quickly.

How should I use this CTRE AI trading strategy?

Use this CTRE AI trading strategy as a research framework, not as personal financial advice. It can help you monitor price relative to moving averages, quarterly FFO and FAD, investment volume and yields, rent collection, operator concentration, dividend coverage, leverage, funding costs, and reimbursement news before making your own decision.

What makes CTRE different from other healthcare REITs?

CTRE differs from many healthcare REITs through its operator-led focus on skilled nursing and senior housing, its mix of triple-net leases, healthcare loans, UK care homes, and SHOP assets, and its rapid acquisition pace. That mix can support growth, but it also creates operator, reimbursement, currency, and integration risks.

CareTrust REIT, Inc. research snapshot

CTRE AI Stock Analysis

CTRE AI stock analysis currently reads CareTrust REIT as a healthcare real estate platform that owns and finances skilled nursing, senior housing, UK care homes, loans, and a small SHOP operating channel. At the August 3, 2026 cutoff, the latest verified close used here was $41.94 from July 31, 2026 and the market capitalization was about $9.91 billion. Q1 2026 revenue rose to $142.783 million, Normalized FFO was $107.4 million or $0.48 per diluted share, and Normalized FAD was $107.6 million or $0.48 per diluted share. The company raised 2026 Normalized FFO guidance to $2.00 to $2.04 per share, received a Moody's investment grade upgrade, and reported roughly $864 million of investment activity closed since quarter end. The central question is whether CareTrust can keep converting high-yield investments and operator relationships into per-share growth without relying too heavily on new equity issuance. This page is informational research and not investment advice.

Current price

$41.94

Market cap

$9.91 billion

AI score

77 / 100

Rating

Fast-growing healthcare REIT with raised 2026 guidance, investment grade status, and low net leverage, balanced by share issuance, operator concentration, and a full FFO multiple near the 52-week high

Trend status

Above the 50-day and 200-day moving averages with neutral RSI, near the 52-week high of $43.62, after a 33.19% 52-week gain

Data cutoff (updated monthly)

August 4, 2026

Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.

Research quality check

information Richness: A-level information richness. CareTrust has SEC filings, quarterly supplements, an operating history since 2014, public operator data, and liquid market data. Some property-level coverage data is operator supplied rather than independently audited.
bias Check: The main AI bias risk is extrapolating recent acquisition growth and management optimism while under-weighting share issuance, operator concentration, reimbursement policy, UK currency exposure, and the possibility that a higher FFO multiple already reflects much of the growth story.
ai Confidence: High for reported financial data, share-count math, valuation arithmetic, company guidance, and technical inputs. Medium for future acquisition yields, operator health, reimbursement policy, and the durability of the current multiple.
investment Certainty: Medium. The balance sheet and investment pipeline are visible, but the long-term outcome depends on tenant performance, capital costs, dilution discipline, and whether new assets earn more than their funding costs.

Quick verdict table

Dimension	Conclusion	Confidence
Business quality	CareTrust owns and finances healthcare real estate, mainly skilled nursing and senior housing, through long-term net leases, loans, and a small SHOP platform. The model is recurring, but rent depends on operators that must remain financially healthy.	High
Moat	The moat comes from healthcare underwriting experience, operator relationships, sourcing scale, public capital access, and specialized knowledge of regulated properties. It is a relationship and execution moat, not a technology monopoly.	Medium-high
Management	CEO Dave Sedgwick brings operating experience from Ensign, while CFO Derek Bunker has healthcare and investment experience. The key test is whether management can fund rapid growth while protecting per-share FFO and balance-sheet flexibility.	Medium-high
Financial trend	FY2025 revenue was $476.393 million and net income attributable to CareTrust was $320.538 million. Q1 2026 revenue rose to $142.783 million, Normalized FFO per share rose 14% year over year to $0.48, and Normalized FAD per share rose 12% to $0.48.	High
Valuation	At $41.94, CTRE traded at about 26.66x trailing EPS, 2.30x book value, 18.96x TTM sales, and 20.76x the midpoint of 2026 Normalized FFO guidance. The verified three-scenario model produced $56.0 in the bull case, $40.9 in the base case, and $24.2 in the bear case.	Medium-high
Technical trend	CTRE is above the 50-day moving average near $40.22 and the 200-day moving average near $38.41, and is near the 52-week high of $43.62. RSI near 53.52 is neutral, so the chart is constructive but momentum is not extreme.	Medium-high
Risk level	Risk is moderate to elevated. The main risks are operator distress, healthcare reimbursement, interest rates, equity dilution, UK currency exposure, acquisition integration, and tenant or geography concentration.	Medium-high
AI confidence	Confidence is high for historical filings, Q1 results, guidance, the $41.94 close, the $9.91 billion market-cap check, and the technical snapshot. Confidence is medium for the forecast because it depends on a non-GAAP FFO proxy and assumptions about growth and multiples.	High data confidence
Investment certainty	Investment certainty is medium. The business has attractive growth inputs and a low reported net-debt ratio, but the current price near the 52-week high leaves limited room for execution mistakes if dilution or operator credit worsens.	Medium

CTRE AI stock forecast

CTRE AI Stock Forecast Scenarios

The CTRE AI stock forecast uses Normalized FFO per share as the primary REIT earnings proxy, then tests growth and terminal multiples. The bullish case becomes more likely if investment activity keeps closing near the 8.8% to 8.9% stabilized yields reported in Q1, operator coverage remains healthy, the Moody's investment-grade upgrade lowers funding costs, and share issuance remains accretive. The bearish case becomes more likely if rates rise, operator coverage falls, acquisition spreads narrow, or new equity issuance outpaces FFO growth.

Bullish case

$54 to $58

More likely if Normalized FFO grows about 8% annually for three years, new assets continue to earn high-single-digit stabilized yields, and investors assign a 22x terminal FFO multiple. The verified model produced $56.0.

Base case

$39 to $42

More likely if Normalized FFO grows about 4% annually, raised 2026 guidance is delivered, leverage stays controlled, and the market applies an 18x terminal multiple. The verified model produced $40.9, modestly below the $41.94 reference price.

Bearish case

$23 to $26

More likely if Normalized FFO declines about 5% annually because operator or reimbursement pressure reduces rent growth, funding costs rise, and the terminal multiple compresses to 14x. The verified model produced $24.2.

CTRE AI technical analysis

CTRE AI Technical Analysis

CTRE AI technical analysis starts from the $41.94 close on July 31, 2026. StockAnalysis reported a 50-day moving average of $40.22, a 200-day moving average of $38.41, RSI of 53.52, average 20-day volume of 2,108,737 shares, beta of 0.79, and a 52-week price change of 33.19%. The 52-week range was $31.33 to $43.62. These are a dated snapshot and should be refreshed after earnings on August 6, 2026, rate decisions, and material operator news.

Level	Value	Why it matters
Current price	$41.94	Latest verified regular-session close used for this page, reported for July 31, 2026.
Near support	$39.90 to $40.50	This zone surrounds the 50-day moving average near $40.22. Holding it keeps the short-term trend constructive.
Secondary support	$38.00 to $38.80	This zone surrounds the 200-day moving average near $38.41 and is the key medium-term trend reference.
Resistance	$42.60 to $43.62	This is the recent-high zone capped by the 52-week high of $43.62. A move through it would need volume and FFO confirmation.
50-day moving average	$40.22	CTRE is above this level. A close below it would reduce short-term trend confidence.
200-day moving average	$38.41	A decisive close below this level would shift the medium-term setup toward risk-off conditions.
Momentum	RSI 53.52	Momentum is neutral. It does not confirm an overbought condition, but it also does not provide a strong fresh upside signal near the highs.
Volume	20-day average 2,108,737 shares	A breakout above resistance would be more credible if volume expands rather than fades near the recent highs.
Volatility	Beta 0.79; 52-week price change +33.19%	Reported beta is below the broad market average, but healthcare REIT shares can still react sharply to rates, credit spreads, and tenant news.
Invalidation	Close below $38.41 or lower FFO guidance	A break below the 200-day moving average, weaker operator coverage, or a lower 2026 guide would weaken the base case.

CTRE AI trading strategy

CTRE AI Trading Strategy Framework

The CTRE AI trading strategy is a rules-based research framework, not personalized advice. It should be monitored through live price, moving averages, quarterly Normalized FFO and FAD, investment yields, operator concentration, rent collection, dividend coverage, leverage, debt costs, UK currency exposure, and reimbursement news.

Trend-following setup

Track whether CTRE holds the $39.90 to $40.50 area and then clears the $42.60 to $43.62 resistance zone with improving volume. Confirmation improves if quarterly FFO stays on the $2.00 to $2.04 2026 guidance path and investment yields remain accretive.

Reduce confidence if price closes below the 50-day moving average near $40.22, if volume expands on down days, or if healthcare REITs weaken together on higher rates.

Mean-reversion setup

Treat a pullback toward the $38.00 to $38.80 support area as a watchlist condition only if rent collection, operator coverage, dividend coverage, and the balance sheet remain intact.

Do not treat the dividend yield or a low reported net-debt ratio as a valuation floor. Equity issuance, operator distress, and higher financing costs can still compress the FFO multiple.

Fundamental monitor

Track Normalized FFO and FAD per share, payout ratio, contractual rent collection, investment volume, stabilized yields, tenant and borrower concentration, property additions, SHOP performance, debt maturities, and ATM issuance.

A combination of lower FFO guidance, weaker operator coverage, slower rent collection, higher funding costs, or a close below $38.41 would override a bullish chart setup.

Investment research summary

Four-master Research Compression

Business essence

CareTrust is paid to provide real estate capital to healthcare operators. Tenants pay rent under long-term net leases, borrowers pay interest on secured and mezzanine loans, and the SHOP platform adds operating exposure to senior housing. The customer pays because CareTrust supplies property capital and healthcare underwriting that operators may not want to fund alone. Question: if operators can access cheaper capital elsewhere, what protects CareTrust's rent and acquisition spreads?

Moat

The moat is strongest in scale, healthcare relationships, acquisition sourcing, public-market access, and specialized operating knowledge. Brand and switching costs are modest, network effects are indirect, and technology or patents are not central to the thesis. The moat can widen if CareTrust keeps its operator network healthy and compounds investment data, but it can narrow if capital becomes abundant or tenant quality weakens. Question: will these relationship and scale advantages still matter ten years from now?

Munger risk inversion

The thesis can fail through operator bankruptcy, weaker Medicaid or Medicare reimbursement, staffing costs, lease resets, acquisition integration mistakes, rate-driven multiple compression, UK currency losses, or equity issuance that grows assets faster than FFO per share. Ensign generated 17% of Q1 2026 revenue, while California and the UK each generated 17%, so concentration remains relevant. Question: where is an analyst most likely to confuse recent acquisition momentum with durable per-share economics?

Management

Dave Sedgwick is President and CEO and brings prior healthcare operating experience from Ensign. Derek Bunker became CFO in January 2026 after healthcare investment and strategy roles. Q1 2026 included $245.1 million of investment activity at an 8.8% stabilized yield, a 0.6x net-debt to annualized normalized run-rate EBITDA ratio, and a 16.4% year-over-year dividend increase. Management also raised 2026 Normalized FFO guidance to $2.00 to $2.04 per share and settled all ATM forward contracts for $363.6 million in gross proceeds. The capital-allocation test is whether acquisitions, debt, ATM equity, and dividends create durable FFO per share growth. Question: could the company maintain its edge if the current CEO and investment team left?

Industry trend

The long-term healthcare and senior-care trend is supported by aging demographics and rising demand for skilled nursing, assisted living, and memory care. CareTrust has three growth engines: US net leases, UK care homes, and SHOP. The cycle still depends on reimbursement rates, labor availability, operator margins, regulation, occupancy, and property-level capital needs. Question: when viewed from twenty years ahead, is CareTrust positioned as an essential owner of aging-related infrastructure or mainly as a leveraged landlord in a regulated cycle?

Valuation and margin of safety

The verified model used the $2.02 midpoint of 2026 Normalized FFO guidance as a REIT earnings proxy. It produced a $56.0 bull case, a $40.9 base case, and a $24.2 bear case. At $41.94, the base case implies little price upside before dividends, and the stock is near the 52-week high, so the margin of safety is thinner than earlier in the year. Question: if the market closed for five years, would the current price still be attractive based on rent growth, operator quality, and per-share FFO rather than the recent stock chart?

Source-backed data

CTRE Data Table

Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.

Metric	Value	Source	Last verified
CTRE price	$41.94 close on July 31, 2026	StockAnalysis statistics page	August 3, 2026
Market capitalization	About $9.91 billion, verified as approximately $41.94 x 236.24 million shares; calculation variance versus reported market cap was 0.02%	StockAnalysis and financial_rigor.py market-cap verification	August 3, 2026
Shares outstanding	236.24 million shares, up 26.38% year over year after equity offerings and ATM settlements	StockAnalysis statistics page	August 3, 2026
FY2025 revenue	$476.393 million from the SEC 10-K, cross-validated against StockAnalysis at $476.39 million; the difference was below 0.1%	SEC 10-K and StockAnalysis financials	August 3, 2026
FY2025 net income	Net income of $320.286 million and net income attributable to CareTrust of $320.538 million from the SEC 10-K, cross-validated against StockAnalysis at $320.54 million	SEC 10-K and StockAnalysis financials	August 3, 2026
Five-year financial trend	Revenue increased from $192.35 million in 2021 to $476.39 million in 2025. Net income moved from $71.98 million in 2021, to a $7.51 million loss in 2022, then $53.74 million in 2023, $125.08 million in 2024, and $320.54 million in 2025.	StockAnalysis annual financials and SEC 10-K	August 3, 2026
Q1 2026 operating results	$142.783 million revenue, $80.210 million net income attributable to CareTrust, $107.4 million Normalized FFO, $107.6 million Normalized FAD, and $0.48 per diluted share for both Normalized FFO and FAD	CareTrust Q1 2026 results press release and SEC 10-Q	August 3, 2026
Cash, debt, and liquidity	$223.207 million cash and about $894.6 million of senior notes plus term-loan debt as of March 31, 2026. Company reporting showed 0.6x net debt to annualized normalized run-rate EBITDA and no scheduled debt maturities before 2028.	SEC 10-Q and CareTrust Q1 results press release	August 3, 2026
Portfolio and lease model	As of March 31, 2026, CareTrust owned or held interests in 417 properties with 38,512 operational beds and units across 32 states and the UK. Owned facilities were primarily leased under triple-net structures, with senior housing communities managed through SHOP.	CareTrust Q1 2026 Form 10-Q	August 3, 2026
Operator and geography concentration	Ensign represented 17% of Q1 2026 revenue, down from 21% in Q1 2025. California, the UK, and Texas represented 17%, 17%, and 11% of Q1 2026 revenue respectively, based on the company's stated revenue concentration method.	CareTrust Q1 2026 Form 10-Q	August 3, 2026
2026 guidance and investment activity	Raised 2026 Normalized FFO guidance of $2.00 to $2.04 per share and Normalized FAD guidance of $1.98 to $2.02 per share. Q1 investment activity was $245.1 million at an 8.8% blended stabilized yield, and about $864 million of investment activity closed since quarter end at a blended stabilized yield of 8.9%.	CareTrust Q1 2026 results press release	August 3, 2026
Dividend and valuation	$0.39 quarterly dividend, or $1.56 annualized, equal to a 3.72% calculated yield at $41.94. Calculated trailing PE was 26.66x, PB was 2.30x, PS was 18.96x, and price to 2026 Normalized FFO midpoint was 20.76x.	CareTrust Q1 release, StockAnalysis, and financial_rigor.py valuation verification	August 3, 2026
Analyst consensus	Consensus rating of Strong Buy with an average 12-month price target of $45.15, about 7.65% above the July 31, 2026 close, based on 13 analysts	StockAnalysis forecast page	August 3, 2026
Technical indicators	50-day MA $40.22, 200-day MA $38.41, RSI 53.52, 20-day average volume 2,108,737 shares, beta 0.79, and 52-week price change +33.19% with a 52-week range of $31.33 to $43.62	StockAnalysis statistics page	August 3, 2026
Three-scenario valuation model	Bull case $56.0, base case $40.9, and bear case $24.2 based on a 3-year Normalized FFO proxy of $2.02, annual growth assumptions of 8%, 4%, and negative 5%, and terminal multiples of 22x, 18x, and 14x	financial_rigor.py three-scenario calculation	August 3, 2026
Data source gap	Normalized FFO and FAD are non-GAAP REIT measures and are more useful than standard free cash flow for this page, but they are not substitutes for net income. Operator coverage data is partly supplied by operators. Market cap uses price multiplied by shares, while debt and net-debt figures can differ by reporting convention. Technical indicators can also vary across providers and dates, and this snapshot predates the Q2 2026 earnings scheduled for August 6, 2026.	CareTrust filings, company disclosures, and StockAnalysis methodology	August 3, 2026

Frequently Asked Questions

Compare CTRE with the OHI AI stock analysis Read the NNN AI stock forecast View the WELL AI technical analysis Explore AI stock screening tools

This CTRE AI stock analysis page is an informational tool only and is not investment advice, tax advice, or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Forecast ranges are scenarios based on available public data as of August 3, 2026 and may be wrong if financial results, rates, operator credit, reimbursement policy, acquisition spreads, financing costs, dilution, dividend policy, currency, or market conditions change. This snapshot predates the Q2 2026 earnings release scheduled for August 6, 2026.