Omega Healthcare Investors, Inc. research snapshot
OHI AI stock analysis currently reads Omega Healthcare Investors as a triple-net healthcare REIT with a large skilled-nursing and senior-housing portfolio, record operator coverage, historically low leverage, and a raised 2026 AFFO guidance. At the August 3, 2026 cutoff, the latest verified close used here was $50.63 on July 31, 2026, market capitalization was about $16.05 billion, and the stock traded near 15.6x the midpoint of 2026 guided AFFO of $3.24 per share. The main questions are whether the new leadership team can keep compounding AFFO and FAD while growing the RIDEA and SHOP portfolio, and whether the current price near the 52-week high already prices in that improvement. This is informational research and not investment advice.
Current price
$50.63
Market cap
$16.05 billion
AI score
74 / 100
Rating
High-yield healthcare REIT with record operator coverage, historically low leverage, and a raised AFFO guide, but priced near 52-week highs with limited margin of safety
Trend status
Above the 50-day and 200-day moving averages, near 52-week highs, RSI positive but not extreme
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Omega is paid to own long-term healthcare real estate, mostly skilled nursing facilities plus senior housing and U.K. care homes, under triple-net leases and an expanding RIDEA operating portfolio. As of the twelve months ended March 31, 2026, operator EBITDAR coverage was 1.65x after management fees, the highest in over a decade, and occupancy was 82.6%. | High |
| Moat | The moat comes from scale, operator relationships, public and private capital access, underwriting data, and a 25-year track record. It is a financing moat, not a monopoly moat, and can narrow if capital costs rise faster than acquisition yields or operator credit weakens. | Medium-high |
| Management | CEO Taylor Pickett and CFO Bob Stephenson, who led Omega for 25 years, held their final earnings call in July 2026. Matthew Gourmand, previously President, now leads as CEO. The test is whether the younger team sustains capital discipline and per-share AFFO and FAD growth through the transition. | Medium-high |
| Financial trend | Q2 2026 revenue was $328.2 million, net income available to common stockholders was $362.8 million ($1.19 diluted per share), AFFO was $0.83 per diluted share, and FAD was $0.78 per diluted share. FAD per share rose 6.3% year over year, and 2026 AFFO guidance was raised to $3.22 to $3.26 per share. | High |
| Valuation | At $50.63, OHI traded near 15.6x the 2026 guided AFFO midpoint, 16.3x trailing Nareit FFO, 18.1x trailing GAAP earnings, 27.3x forward earnings, 2.8x book value, and a 5.4% dividend yield. The verified three-scenario model produced a base case near $51.0 and a bear case near $36.7. | Medium-high |
| Technical trend | OHI is above the 50-day moving average near $47.81 and the 200-day moving average near $45.72, about 3.4% below its 52-week high of $52.39. RSI near 58 shows positive but not extreme momentum. | Medium-high |
| Risk level | Risk is moderate for a REIT. Key risks are operator credit, the leadership transition, Medicaid reimbursement, RIDEA and SHOP execution, interest rates, the near-term AFFO headwind from asset sales, and a price that has already rallied about 30% in a year. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | High for company-reported Q2 2026 data, market cap math, valuation ratios, dividend data, and technical inputs; medium for future operator coverage, reimbursement policy, RIDEA and SHOP execution, and the leadership transition. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | Medium certainty. OHI has a durable income model, record coverage, and low leverage, but the current case depends on leadership execution, operator health, and the stock holding a higher valuation near 52-week highs. | Medium |
OHI AI stock forecast
The OHI AI stock forecast uses AFFO per share, FFO multiples, operator coverage, leverage, investment yields, dividend coverage, RIDEA and SHOP growth, and technical trend rather than a single deterministic price prediction. The bullish case becomes more likely if 2026 AFFO guidance is raised again, operator coverage stays near record levels, the pipeline converts into accretive investments, and the market keeps a higher REIT multiple. The bearish case becomes more likely if operator distress or leadership execution problems emerge, Medicaid reimbursement pressures intensify, rates rise, or the market assigns a lower multiple to a stock near its 52-week high.
$60 to $62
More likely if OHI compounds AFFO near 5% to 6% annually, the market applies a 16x terminal AFFO multiple, operator coverage stays at record levels, and the dividend payout remains covered. The verified three-scenario model produced about $61.7 using 6% growth and a 16x terminal multiple.
$49 to $52
More likely if OHI tracks the 2026 AFFO guidance range of $3.22 to $3.26, operator coverage stays near 1.65x, the pipeline converts into accretive investments, and the stock holds about a 14x AFFO multiple. The verified model base case was about $51.0.
$35 to $38
More likely if AFFO stalls, operator distress or leadership execution problems emerge, reimbursement pressure rises, or OHI is valued closer to an 11x AFFO multiple. The verified bear model produced about $36.7.
OHI AI technical analysis
OHI AI technical analysis starts from the $50.63 close on July 31, 2026. The stock is above the 50-day moving average near $47.81 and the 200-day moving average near $45.72, while RSI of about 58 signals positive but not extreme momentum. Technical levels should be checked against Q3 2026 earnings, operator credit news, leadership transition updates, rate moves, and reimbursement developments.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $50.63 | Latest verified close used for this page, reported for July 31, 2026. |
| Near support | $49.40 to $50.00 | This zone covers the recent pullback low near $49.49 and the round $50 level. Holding it keeps the short-term trend constructive. |
| Secondary support | $47.70 to $48.00 | This zone aligns with the 50-day moving average near $47.81 and is the first trend support for short and medium-term buyers. |
| Major support | $45.70 to $46.00 | This zone aligns with the 200-day moving average near $45.72 and is the key trend support for medium-term buyers. |
| Resistance | $52.00 to $52.40 | This area is the 52-week high zone near $52.39. A breakout would need volume and fundamental confirmation. |
| 50-day moving average | $47.81 | OHI is above this level, so a close below it would reduce short-term trend confidence. |
| 200-day moving average | $45.72 | A decisive close below this level would shift the chart toward a risk-off setup for the REIT. |
| Momentum | RSI 58.39 | RSI is positive but not extreme. Momentum still needs confirmation from volume and operator or earnings news. |
| Volume | 20-day average about 1.85 million shares | A move above $52 would be more credible if volume expands rather than fading near resistance. |
| Volatility | ATR 14 near $1.06, beta 0.57 to 0.58 | OHI has lower reported beta than the broad market, but REIT drawdowns can still be sharp when rates or credit spreads move. |
| Invalidation | Close below $45.70 or a lower AFFO guide | A break below the 200-day moving average, weaker guidance, or operator credit deterioration would weaken the base case. |
OHI AI trading strategy
The OHI AI trading strategy is a rules-based framework, not personalized advice. It should be monitored through live price, moving averages, Q3 2026 earnings, 2026 AFFO guidance, operator coverage, occupancy, investment yields, dividend coverage, leverage, the leadership transition, and reimbursement news.
Track whether OHI holds the $49.40 to $50.00 area and then clears the $52.00 to $52.40 zone with improving volume. Confirmation improves if Q3 2026 results keep 2026 AFFO guidance at $3.22 to $3.26 or raise it, and operator coverage stays near record levels.
Reduce confidence if price closes below the 50-day moving average near $47.81, if volume expands on down days, or if REITs weaken together on higher rates.
Use pullbacks toward the $45.70 to $46.00 support area as a watchlist condition only if operator coverage, dividend coverage, and the leadership transition stay on track.
Do not treat the dividend yield as a valuation floor. A higher-rate environment, reimbursement pressure, or execution problems can still compress AFFO multiples and pressure the stock.
Track AFFO per share, FAD per share, payout ratio, operator EBITDAR coverage, occupancy, rent recapture, investment volume, weighted average acquisition yield, leverage, the Genesis bankruptcy process, and RIDEA and SHOP execution.
A mix of lower AFFO guidance, weaker operator coverage, higher financing costs, leadership disruption, or a close below $45.70 would override a bullish chart setup.
Investment research summary
Omega Healthcare Investors is paid to provide real estate capital to operators of skilled nursing facilities, senior housing communities, and U.K. care homes. Tenants pay rent under long-term net leases or through RIDEA operating structures, while OHI converts property cash flows into quarterly dividends and incremental acquisitions.
The moat is built from scale, public-market access, operator relationships, underwriting data, and a long dividend record. It can narrow if capital costs rise faster than acquisition yields, if operator defaults increase, or if new leadership loses capital discipline.
The thesis can fail if operator coverage falls, Genesis or other large operators default, Medicaid and Medicare reimbursement is cut, the RIDEA and SHOP portfolio executes poorly, the leadership transition disrupts capital allocation, or investors overpay for current yield near the 52-week high.
Taylor Pickett and Bob Stephenson retired after 25 years of leadership, and Matthew Gourmand is now CEO. The main test is whether the younger team sustains the culture, capital discipline, and per-share AFFO and FAD growth through the transition and into larger RIDEA and SHOP exposure.
The long-term trend is supported by aging demographics, SNF cap rate compression, and the recovery of nursing home staffing to pre-pandemic levels in June 2026. The near-term cycle depends on reimbursement rates, operator profitability, occupancy, and capital-market access.
The verified scenario model produced about $61.7 in the bull case, $51.0 in the base case, and $36.7 in the bear case using the 2026 AFFO guidance midpoint as the earnings proxy. The margin of safety is limited because OHI trades at a reasonable REIT multiple near 52-week highs, not a distressed price.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| OHI price | $50.63 close on July 31, 2026 | TradingEconomics quote snapshot and StockAnalysis | August 3, 2026 |
| Market capitalization | $16.05 billion, verified as $50.63 x 316.92 million shares | StockAnalysis and financial_rigor.py market cap verification | August 3, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding | 316.92 million shares outstanding per StockAnalysis; 299.11 million common shares issued and outstanding per the Q2 2026 10-Q | OHI Q2 2026 10-Q and StockAnalysis | August 3, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 revenues and net income | $328.2 million total revenues, $379.7 million net income, and $362.8 million net income available to common stockholders ($1.19 diluted per share) | Omega Healthcare Q2 2026 results release | August 3, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 AFFO and FAD | $261.4 million AFFO ($0.83 per diluted share) and $247.6 million FAD ($0.78 per diluted share), with FAD per share up 6.3% year over year | Omega Healthcare Q2 2026 results release | August 3, 2026 |
| Portfolio and operating metrics | Trailing twelve month operator EBITDAR coverage of 1.65x after management fees (2.01x before fees) for the twelve months ended March 31, 2026, the highest in over a decade, with 82.6% occupancy and a Medicaid revenue mix of 46.9% | Omega Healthcare Q2 2026 results release and Q2 2026 earnings call | August 3, 2026 |
| Leverage and liquidity | $4.1 billion outstanding indebtedness at a 4.2% weighted average rate, $39.0 million cash, $2.0 billion undrawn revolver capacity, 3.3x leverage, and a 6.5x fixed charge coverage ratio | Omega Healthcare Q2 2026 results release and Q2 2026 earnings call | August 3, 2026 |
| 2026 AFFO guidance | $3.22 to $3.26 per diluted share, raised from $3.19 to $3.25, with the midpoint at $3.24 | Omega Healthcare Q2 2026 results release | August 3, 2026 |
| Dividend | $0.68 per quarter ($2.72 annualized, up from $0.67), effective August 3, 2026, for an approximate 5.4% dividend yield | Omega Healthcare Q2 2026 results release and StockAnalysis | August 3, 2026 |
| Valuation ratios | 18.1x trailing PE, 27.3x forward PE, 16.3x trailing price to Nareit FFO, 15.6x price to 2026 guided AFFO midpoint, 2.8x PB, and an approximate 5.7% FCF yield | StockAnalysis statistics and financial_rigor.py valuation verification | August 3, 2026 |
| Technical indicators | 50-day MA $47.81, 200-day MA $45.72, RSI 58.39, ATR 14 near $1.06, beta 0.57 to 0.58, 20-day average volume about 1.85 million shares, and a 52-week range of $38.71 to $52.39 | StockAnalysis statistics and Finviz pages | August 3, 2026 |
| Three-scenario valuation model | Bull case $61.7, base case $51.0, bear case $36.7 based on 1% to 6% AFFO growth and 11x to 16x terminal multiples using the $3.24 AFFO guidance midpoint | financial_rigor.py three-scenario calculation | August 3, 2026 |
| Analyst consensus | Buy rating with an average price target near $51.61 across 20 analysts; Cantor Fitzgerald raised its target to $56 while Barclays initiated coverage with an Underweight rating and a $51 target | StockAnalysis forecast and Finviz news feed | August 3, 2026 |
| Data source gap | Operator EBITDAR coverage is reported by operators and not independently verified by Omega. Technical indicator values and market cap share counts can differ across sources and dates. | Omega Healthcare Q2 2026 supplemental disclosures | August 3, 2026 |
This OHI AI stock analysis page is an informational tool only and is not investment advice, tax advice, or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Forecast ranges are scenarios based on available public data as of August 3, 2026 and may be wrong if financial results, rates, reimbursement policy, operator credit, the leadership transition, acquisition spreads, financing costs, dividend policy, or market conditions change.
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