Omega Healthcare Investors, Inc. research snapshot
OHI AI stock analysis currently reads Omega Healthcare Investors as a triple-net healthcare REIT with a large skilled-nursing and senior-housing portfolio, a high dividend yield, and improving operator coverage. At the July 12, 2026 cutoff, the latest verified close used here was $48.30, market capitalization was about $14.38 billion, and the stock traded near 15.0x price to 2026 guided AFFO. The main question is whether AFFO per share, operator coverage, occupancy, and accretive investments can continue while the stock trades close to its 52-week high. This is informational research and not investment advice.
Current price
$48.30
Market cap
$14.38 billion
AI score
72 / 100
Rating
High-yield healthcare REIT with improving operator coverage, rate sensitivity, and limited margin of safety at the highs
Trend status
Above the 50-day and 200-day moving averages, near 52-week highs
Data cutoff (updated weekly)
July 12, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Omega is paid to own long-term healthcare real estate, mostly skilled nursing facilities, under triple-net leases and RIDEA structures. As of March 31, 2026, the portfolio spanned about 1,124 properties, 94 operators, and approximately 102,180 beds. | High |
| Moat | The moat comes from scale, operator relationships, access to public and private capital, and underwriting data. It is weaker than a monopoly moat because capital can compete for similar healthcare real estate when yields are attractive. | Medium-high |
| Management | CEO Taylor Pickett is leading a planned transition to Matthew Gourmand. The capital allocation test is whether new investments, dispositions, and restructuring create per-share AFFO growth without adding hidden leverage or operator risk. | Medium-high |
| Financial trend | Q1 2026 revenue was $323.0 million, net income was $158.6 million ($151.0 million available to common stockholders), AFFO was $0.82 per diluted share, and FAD was $0.78 per diluted share. The 2026 AFFO guidance range is $3.19 to $3.25 per share. | High |
| Valuation | At $48.30, OHI traded near 15.0x 2026 guided AFFO, 23.5x TTM earnings, 2.8x book value, and a 5.5% dividend yield. The verified three-scenario model produced a base case near $50.7 and a bear case near $38.7. | Medium-high |
| Technical trend | OHI is above the 50-day moving average near $46.86 and the 200-day moving average near $45.00. RSI near 60 shows positive but not extreme momentum. | Medium-high |
| Risk level | Risk is moderate to elevated for a REIT. Key risks are operator credit, Genesis bankruptcy exposure, Medicaid and Medicare reimbursement, interest rates, tenant concentration, and the recent rally to 52-week highs. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | High for company-reported Q1 2026 data, market cap math, shares, valuation ratios, dividend data, and technical inputs; medium for future operator coverage, occupancy, reimbursement policy, and capital-market conditions. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | Medium certainty. OHI has a durable income model and improving coverage, but the current case depends on stable operator health and the stock holding near a higher valuation range. | Medium |
OHI AI stock forecast
The OHI AI stock forecast uses AFFO per share, FFO multiples, operator coverage, occupancy, investment yields, financing costs, dividend coverage, and technical trend rather than a single deterministic price prediction. The bullish case becomes more likely if 2026 AFFO guidance is raised, operator coverage stays above 1.5x, accretive investments continue, and the market applies a higher REIT multiple. The bearish case becomes more likely if operator distress rises, reimbursement pressure intensifies, rates move higher, or the market assigns a lower multiple.
$60 to $62
More likely if OHI compounds AFFO near 5% to 6% annually, the market applies a 16x terminal AFFO multiple, operator coverage stays above 1.5x, and the dividend payout remains covered. The verified three-scenario model produced about $61.4 using 6% growth and a 16x terminal multiple.
$50 to $52
More likely if OHI tracks the 2026 AFFO guidance range of $3.19 to $3.25, operator coverage stays around 1.5x, investment volume remains productive, and the stock holds a 14x AFFO multiple. The verified model base case was about $50.7.
$37 to $40
More likely if AFFO stalls, operator distress increases, reimbursement pressure rises, or OHI is valued closer to an 11x AFFO multiple. The verified bear model produced about $38.7.
OHI AI technical analysis
OHI AI technical analysis starts from the $48.30 close on July 10, 2026. The stock is above the 50-day moving average near $46.86 and the 200-day moving average near $45.00, while RSI of about 60 signals positive but not extreme momentum. Technical levels should be checked against Q2 2026 earnings on July 29, 2026, rate moves, operator credit news, and reimbursement developments.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $48.30 | Latest verified close used for this page, reported for July 10, 2026. |
| Near support | $46.50 to $47.00 | This zone covers the current 50-day moving average area. Holding it keeps the short-term trend constructive. |
| Secondary support | $44.50 to $45.00 | This zone aligns with the 200-day moving average and is the key trend support for medium-term buyers. |
| Resistance | $50.00 to $51.00 | This area overlaps the 52-week high zone and analyst target context. A breakout would need volume and fundamental confirmation. |
| 50-day moving average | $46.86 | OHI is above this level, so a close below it would reduce short-term trend confidence. |
| 200-day moving average | $45.00 | A decisive close below this level would shift the chart toward a risk-off setup for the REIT. |
| Momentum | RSI 60.09 | RSI is positive but not extreme. Momentum still needs confirmation from volume and operator news. |
| Volume | 20-day average 2.16 million shares | A move above $50 would be more credible if volume expands rather than fading near resistance. |
| Volatility | ATR 14 near $1.10, beta 0.57 | OHI has lower reported beta than the broad market, but REIT drawdowns can still be sharp when rates or credit spreads move. |
| Invalidation | Close below $45.00 or lower AFFO guide | A break below the 200-day moving average, weaker 2026 guidance, or operator credit deterioration would weaken the base case. |
OHI AI trading strategy
The OHI AI trading strategy is a rules-based framework, not personalized advice. It should be monitored through live price, moving averages, Q2 2026 earnings, 2026 AFFO guidance, operator coverage, occupancy, investment yields, dividend coverage, debt costs, and reimbursement news.
Track whether OHI holds the $46.50 to $47.00 area and then clears $50.00 with improving volume. Confirmation improves if Q2 2026 results keep AFFO guidance at $3.19 to $3.25 or raise it, and operator coverage stays near 1.5x.
Reduce confidence if price closes below the 50-day moving average near $46.86, if volume expands on down days, or if REITs weaken together on higher rates.
Use pullbacks toward the $44.50 to $45.00 support area as a watchlist condition only if operator coverage, dividend coverage, and tenant health remain intact.
Do not treat the dividend yield as a valuation floor. A higher-rate environment or operator distress can still compress AFFO multiples and pressure the stock.
Track AFFO per share, FAD per share, payout ratio, operator EBITDAR coverage, occupancy, rent recapture, investment volume, weighted average acquisition yield, leverage, and the Genesis bankruptcy process.
A mix of lower AFFO guidance, weaker operator coverage, higher financing costs, or a close below $45.00 would override a bullish chart setup.
Investment research summary
Omega Healthcare Investors is paid to provide real estate capital to operators of skilled nursing facilities, assisted living facilities, and other senior housing assets. Tenants pay rent under long-term net leases or through RIDEA operating structures, while OHI converts property cash flows into quarterly dividends and incremental acquisitions.
The moat is built from scale, public-market access, operator relationships, underwriting data, global sourcing, and a long dividend record. The moat can narrow if capital costs rise faster than acquisition yields or if operator defaults increase.
The thesis can fail if operator coverage falls, Genesis or other large operators default, Medicaid and Medicare reimbursement is cut, interest rates rise, the dividend payout becomes uncovered, or investors overpay for current yield.
Taylor Pickett and the leadership team are executing a transition to Matthew Gourmand while focusing on accretive investments, active portfolio management, and operator partnerships. The main test is whether the transition preserves capital discipline and per-share AFFO growth.
The long-term trend is supported by aging demographics and the need for post-acute and senior care facilities. The near-term cycle depends on reimbursement rates, operator profitability, occupancy, and capital-market access.
The verified scenario model produced about $61.4 in the bull case, $50.7 in the base case, and $38.7 in the bear case using 2026 AFFO guidance as the earnings proxy. The margin of safety is limited because OHI trades at a reasonable REIT multiple near 52-week highs, not a distressed price.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| OHI price | $48.30 close on July 10, 2026 | TradingEconomics quote snapshot | July 12, 2026 |
| Market capitalization | $14.38 billion, verified as $48.30 x 297.797 million shares | financial_rigor.py market cap verification and OHI Q1 2026 10-Q | July 12, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding | 297.797 million shares outstanding | OHI Q1 2026 10-Q | July 12, 2026 |
| FY2025 total revenues | $1.19 billion, cross-validated against company 10-K and AlphaQuery | Omega Healthcare 2025 10-K and AlphaQuery | July 12, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 total revenues and net income | $323.0 million total revenues, $158.6 million net income, and $151.0 million net income available to common stockholders | Omega Healthcare Q1 2026 8-K and 10-Q | July 12, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 AFFO and FAD | $259.7 million AFFO ($0.82 per diluted share) and $246.8 million FAD ($0.78 per diluted share) | Omega Healthcare Q1 2026 results release | July 12, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 portfolio and operating metrics | About 1,124 properties, 94 operators, approximately 102,180 beds, and 82.6% occupancy | Omega Healthcare Q1 2026 results release and BMO Capital Markets research | July 12, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 leverage and liquidity | $4.5 billion in outstanding indebtedness at a weighted average 4.2% interest rate, $26.1 million cash, and $1.6 billion undrawn revolving credit capacity | Omega Healthcare Q1 2026 8-K | July 12, 2026 |
| 2026 AFFO guidance | $3.19 to $3.25 per diluted share, with the midpoint raised to $3.22 | Omega Healthcare Q1 2026 results release | July 12, 2026 |
| Dividend and valuation | $2.68 annual dividend, 5.5% dividend yield, 23.5x TTM PE, 15.0x price to 2026 guided AFFO, 2.8x PB, and 5.5% FCF yield | StockAnalysis overview and financial_rigor.py valuation verification | July 12, 2026 |
| Technical indicators | 50-day MA $46.86, 200-day MA $45.00, RSI 60.09, 20-day average volume 2.16 million, ATR 14 near $1.10, beta 0.57 | StockAnalysis and Finviz statistics pages | July 12, 2026 |
| Three-scenario valuation model | Bull case $61.4, base case $50.7, bear case $38.7 based on 3% to 6% AFFO growth and 11x to 16x terminal multiples | financial_rigor.py three-scenario calculation | July 12, 2026 |
| Data source gap | Operator-level EBITDAR coverage is reported by operators and not independently verified by Omega. Technical indicator values can differ across sources and dates. | Omega Healthcare Q1 2026 supplemental disclosures | July 12, 2026 |
This OHI AI stock analysis page is an informational tool only and is not investment advice, tax advice, or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Forecast ranges are scenarios based on available public data as of July 12, 2026 and may be wrong if financial results, rates, reimbursement policy, operator credit, acquisition spreads, financing costs, dividend policy, or market conditions change.
Design trading strategies visually with 10+ indicators. Set entry/exit conditions and risk management, then generate Pine Script code with no coding required.
Filter and discover stocks based on market cap, dividend yield, P/E ratio, sector, and more. Screen thousands of stocks with real-time data.
Smart AI-driven stock selection with fundamental screening, analyst estimates, and key metrics. Filter by P/E, market cap, dividends, and more.
