NNN REIT, Inc. research snapshot
NNN AI stock analysis currently reads NNN REIT as a diversified single-tenant net-lease REIT with 3,711 properties, 98.6% occupancy, a 10.1-year weighted average remaining lease term, and 36 consecutive years of annual dividend increases. At the July 12, 2026 cutoff, the latest verified close used here was $46.77, market capitalization was about $8.90 billion, and the stock traded near 13.1x the midpoint of 2026 AFFO guidance. The business quality is strong, but the investment case still depends on tenant health, interest rates, acquisition spreads, and the price paid for durable income. This is informational research and not investment advice.
Current price
$46.77
Market cap
$8.90 billion
AI score
71 / 100
Rating
High-quality net-lease REIT with strong occupancy and dividend history, but rate sensitivity and limited margin of safety near 52-week highs
Trend status
Above the 50-day and 200-day moving averages, close to the 52-week high
Data cutoff (updated weekly)
July 12, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | NNN owns single-tenant retail properties leased under long-term net leases, allowing tenants to carry most property operating costs while NNN collects contractual rent. The portfolio is large, diversified, and operationally simple. | High |
| Moat | The moat comes from scale, tenant relationships, acquisition sourcing, underwriting history, public-market access, and a long dividend record. It is a durable financing and execution advantage, not a monopoly. | Medium-high |
| Management | CEO Stephen Horn has led NNN since April 2022 after serving in acquisitions and operations. The capital allocation test is whether acquisitions, dispositions, equity issuance, and debt funding continue to grow AFFO per share. | Medium-high |
| Financial trend | FY2025 revenue was $926.2 million versus $869.3 million in 2024. Q1 2026 revenue rose to $240.4 million, while net earnings were $94.0 million and AFFO was $0.87 per diluted share. 2026 AFFO guidance is $3.53 to $3.59 per share. | High |
| Valuation | At $46.77, NNN traded near 13.1x the midpoint of 2026 AFFO guidance, 22.8x TTM earnings, 2.02x book value, 9.51x sales, and a 5.1% annual dividend yield. The margin of safety is limited near the 52-week high. | Medium-high |
| Technical trend | NNN is above the 50-day moving average near $45.27 and the 200-day moving average near $43.01. RSI near 55 indicates positive but not stretched momentum, while price remains close to the $47.64 52-week high. | Medium-high |
| Risk level | Risk is moderate for a net-lease REIT. The main risks are higher interest rates, tenant defaults, weaker re-leasing economics, leverage, equity dilution, and concentration in automotive service, convenience stores, restaurants, and entertainment. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | Confidence is high for SEC reported results, portfolio metrics, market cap math, share count, dividend data, and current valuation inputs. Confidence is medium for future AFFO growth, market multiples, technical levels, and tenant credit outcomes. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | Medium certainty. NNN offers a clear income model and a broad portfolio, but the current price does not provide a large discount to the base case and the balance sheet remains exposed to capital-market conditions. | Medium |
NNN AI stock forecast
The NNN AI stock forecast uses AFFO per share, occupancy, annualized base rent, acquisition yields, tenant credit, interest costs, dividend coverage, and REIT valuation multiples rather than a deterministic price prediction. The bullish case becomes more likely if AFFO per share grows near 4%, acquisitions remain accretive at attractive cap rates, occupancy stays near 99%, and the market supports a higher AFFO multiple. The bearish case becomes more likely if rates rise, tenant defaults increase, acquisition spreads narrow, or NNN needs to issue equity at unattractive prices.
$64 to $70
More likely if AFFO compounds near 4% annually, occupancy remains high, acquisition volume reaches the guided range with acceptable spreads, and the market applies a 17x AFFO multiple. The verified three-scenario model produced about $68.1 using 4% growth and a 17x terminal multiple.
$51 to $56
More likely if NNN tracks the $3.53 to $3.59 2026 AFFO guidance range, grows AFFO near 2.5% annually, keeps occupancy close to current levels, and trades near a 14x AFFO multiple. The verified model base case was about $53.7.
$35 to $39
More likely if AFFO declines about 2% annually, rates or credit spreads stay higher, tenant distress increases, or NNN is valued near an 11x AFFO multiple. The verified bear model produced about $36.9.
NNN AI technical analysis
NNN AI technical analysis starts from the $46.77 close on July 10, 2026. The StockAnalysis technical snapshot places the 50-day moving average near $45.27 and the 200-day moving average near $43.01, with RSI near 54.98 and 20-day average volume near 1.67 million shares. The chart is constructive, but the stock is close to the $47.64 52-week high, so a breakout needs volume and fundamental confirmation. Technical values can vary by source and date.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $46.77 | Latest verified close used for this page, reported for July 10, 2026. |
| Near support | $45.00 to $45.50 | This zone surrounds the 50-day moving average near $45.27. Holding it keeps the short-term trend constructive. |
| Secondary support | $42.50 to $43.25 | This zone surrounds the 200-day moving average near $43.01 and is the key medium-term trend reference. |
| Resistance | $47.50 to $48.50 | This zone includes the $47.64 52-week high. A sustained move above it would need expanding volume and stable AFFO guidance. |
| 50-day moving average | $45.27 | NNN is above this level. A close below it would reduce short-term trend confidence. |
| 200-day moving average | $43.01 | A decisive close below this level would shift the medium-term setup toward risk-off conditions. |
| Momentum | RSI 54.98 | Momentum is positive to neutral and not yet at an extreme reading. The signal should be checked against volume and rates. |
| Volume | 20-day average 1.67 million shares | A move through the 52-week high would be more credible if volume expands above the recent average. |
| Volatility | Beta 0.78; 52-week price change +9.07% | Reported beta is below the broad market average, but REIT prices can still react sharply to rates and credit spreads. |
| Invalidation | Close below $43.00 or lower AFFO guidance | A break below the 200-day moving average, weaker occupancy, tenant credit deterioration, or a lower AFFO guide would weaken the base case. |
NNN AI trading strategy
The NNN AI trading strategy is a rules-based research framework, not personalized advice. It should be monitored through live price, moving averages, Q2 2026 earnings, AFFO guidance, occupancy, annualized base rent, tenant credit, acquisition cap rates, debt costs, liquidity, and dividend coverage.
Track whether NNN holds the $45.00 to $45.50 area and then clears $47.64 with improving volume. Confirmation improves if Q2 2026 results keep AFFO guidance at $3.53 to $3.59 or raise it, while occupancy and annualized base rent remain stable.
Reduce confidence if price closes below the 50-day moving average near $45.27, if volume expands on down days, or if net-lease REITs weaken together as rates rise.
Treat a pullback toward the $42.50 to $43.25 support area as a watchlist condition only if occupancy, tenant credit, dividend coverage, and acquisition spreads remain intact.
Do not treat the dividend yield as a valuation floor. Higher rates, tenant distress, or equity issuance can still compress AFFO multiples and pressure the stock.
Track AFFO per share, payout ratio, occupancy, annualized base rent, lease term, tenant and trade concentration, acquisition cap rates, disposition volume, net debt to EBITDAre, liquidity, and debt maturities.
A mix of lower AFFO guidance, weaker tenant credit, narrower acquisition spreads, higher financing costs, or a close below $43.00 would override a bullish chart setup.
Investment research summary
NNN REIT is paid to provide real estate capital to operators of convenience stores, automotive service businesses, restaurants, entertainment venues, dealerships, and other retail-oriented properties. Tenants generally pay rent and property-level costs under long-term net leases, while NNN converts a broad rent stream into dividends and incremental acquisitions.
The moat is built from a 3,711-property footprint, long tenant relationships, acquisition sourcing, underwriting data, public-market access, and a 36-year record of annual dividend increases. The moat can narrow if capital costs rise faster than acquisition yields or if weaker tenants require costly re-leasing.
The thesis can fail if interest rates remain high, tenant bankruptcies increase, automotive or convenience demand weakens, entertainment properties become harder to re-lease, acquisition spreads compress, or NNN issues equity at a price that does not cover its cost of capital.
Stephen Horn has progressed through NNN acquisitions and operations before becoming CEO in 2022. Q1 2026 activity included $145.4 million of investments at a 7.5% initial cash cap rate, a fully hedged $300 million term loan, and $1.2 billion of available liquidity. The main test is per-share growth after funding costs and dilution.
The long-term trend is supported by demand for convenient, service-oriented locations and by corporate operators that prefer to unlock capital from real estate. The near-term cycle depends on consumer spending, auto service demand, tenant balance sheets, credit markets, cap rates, and the supply of attractive single-tenant properties.
The verified scenario model produced about $68.1 in the bull case, $53.7 in the base case, and $36.9 in the bear case using the $3.56 midpoint of 2026 AFFO guidance as the earnings proxy. At $46.77, NNN is below the base case but close to the 52-week high, so the margin of safety is moderate rather than wide.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| NNN price | $46.77 close on July 10, 2026 | StockAnalysis overview and statistics pages | July 12, 2026 |
| Market capitalization | About $8.90 billion, verified as approximately $46.77 x 190.25 million shares | StockAnalysis statistics and financial_rigor.py market cap verification | July 12, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding | 190.248 million shares as of April 27, 2026 | NNN Q1 2026 Form 10-Q | July 12, 2026 |
| FY2025 revenue | $926.213 million from Macrotrends versus $926.21 million from StockAnalysis; difference is below 0.01% | Macrotrends and StockAnalysis annual financials | July 12, 2026 |
| FY2025 net income | $389.78 million, cross-validated against the NNN 2025 Form 10-K and StockAnalysis | NNN 2025 Form 10-K and StockAnalysis annual financials | July 12, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 financial results | $240.424 million revenue, $93.951 million net earnings, $163.150 million FFO, and $165.679 million AFFO; diluted AFFO was $0.87 per share | NNN Q1 2026 results release filed with the SEC | July 12, 2026 |
| Portfolio and operating metrics | 3,711 properties, 39.6 million square feet, 98.6% leased, 10.1-year weighted average remaining lease term, and $934.6 million ABR as of March 31, 2026 | NNN Q1 2026 Form 10-Q | July 12, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 capital allocation and liquidity | $145.4 million invested at a 7.5% initial cash cap rate, $35.8 million of property sales, $4.93 billion gross debt, 4.2% weighted average interest rate, 10.5-year debt maturity, and $1.2 billion available liquidity | NNN Q1 2026 results release filed with the SEC | July 12, 2026 |
| 2026 guidance | $3.53 to $3.59 AFFO per share, $3.48 to $3.54 Core FFO per share, $550 million to $650 million acquisition volume, and $110 million to $150 million disposition volume | NNN Q1 2026 results release | July 12, 2026 |
| Dividend and valuation | $2.40 annual dividend, 5.13% calculated dividend yield, 22.81x calculated PE, 13.14x price to 2026 AFFO midpoint, 2.02x PB, and 9.51x PS | NNN Q1 2026 release, StockAnalysis, and financial_rigor.py valuation verification | July 12, 2026 |
| Technical indicators | 50-day MA $45.27, 200-day MA $43.01, RSI 54.98, 20-day average volume 1.67 million shares, beta 0.78, and 52-week price change +9.07% | StockAnalysis statistics page | July 12, 2026 |
| Tenant and trade concentration | Automotive service represented 18.7% of ABR, convenience stores 16.3%, restaurants 14.4%, and 7-Eleven was the largest named tenant at 4.3% of ABR as of March 31, 2026 | NNN Q1 2026 Form 10-Q and portfolio dashboard | July 12, 2026 |
| Three-scenario valuation model | Bull case $68.1, base case $53.7, and bear case $36.9 based on a 3-year AFFO proxy of $3.56, 4% to negative 2% annual growth, and 11x to 17x terminal multiples | financial_rigor.py three-scenario calculation | July 12, 2026 |
| Data source gap | AFFO is a non-GAAP REIT measure and is more useful than GAAP free cash flow for this page, but it is not a substitute for net income. Market cap uses a current price multiplied by shares, while debt figures can differ by whether unamortized discounts, debt costs, or restricted cash are included. Technical indicators can also vary across providers and dates. | NNN filings and StockAnalysis methodology | July 12, 2026 |
This NNN AI stock analysis page is an informational tool only and is not investment advice, tax advice, or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Forecast ranges are scenarios based on available public data as of July 12, 2026 and may be wrong if financial results, rates, tenant credit, acquisition spreads, financing costs, dividend policy, or market conditions change.
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