CoStar Group, Inc. research snapshot
CSGP AI stock analysis currently reads CoStar Group, Inc. as a high-quality commercial real estate data and marketplace franchise that is turning more profitable, with adjusted EBITDA more than doubling in Q2 2026, while investors focus on slowing net new bookings and a lowered 2026 revenue outlook. This CoStar Group AI stock analysis uses an August 2, 2026 data cutoff. At that date, CSGP closed near $28.76 on July 31, 2026, implying a market capitalization of about $11.65 billion on 405.20 million shares outstanding, with trailing-twelve-month revenue near $3.56 billion and very low GAAP trailing earnings because residential investment, acquisitions, and marketing still weigh on reported profit. The stock is not a simple AI buy signal. The central question is whether CoStar can convert its data moat and improving residential economics into durable marketplace growth without another guidance reset. This is informational research and not investment advice.
Current price
$28.76
Market cap
$11.65 billion
AI score
52 / 100
Rating
Quality data franchise, improving profitability, high growth and execution risk
Trend status
Bearish medium-term trend, near 52-week low, below all major moving averages
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | CoStar sells subscription data, analytics, marketplaces, and advertising across commercial real estate, multifamily, land, residential, and 3D digital twin property categories. | High |
| Moat | The strongest moat is proprietary property data, research coverage, workflow integration, marketplace liquidity, and Apartments.com brand awareness in multifamily. | Medium-high |
| Management | Founder CEO Andy Florance is shifting from growth at all costs to profitable growth, holding operating costs up only 2% in Q2, but the reduced revenue outlook and CFO transition add execution uncertainty. | Medium |
| Financial trend | Q2 2026 revenue rose 18% to $925 million, adjusted EBITDA more than doubled to $184 million, and residential posted its first quarterly profit, but net new bookings fell roughly 26% year over year. | Medium-high |
| Valuation | At $28.76, CSGP traded near 3.3x TTM sales, 1.5x book value, about 18.6x forward earnings, and an optically extreme trailing GAAP P/E above 150x. | Medium |
| Technical trend | The stock trades near its 52-week low and below the 20-day, 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day moving averages, with a neutral RSI and a weak directional trend. | Medium |
| Risk level | Key risks are booking deceleration, the reduced revenue outlook, Homes.com monetization, Zillow competition and litigation, Ten-X restructuring, and integration of Zonda and Domain. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | High confidence for quotes, Q2 and FY2025 filings, guidance, share count, and market cap math. Lower confidence for forward bookings and residential unit economics. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | Medium-low certainty. CoStar has durable assets and improving profitability, but the stock needs evidence that net new bookings can re-accelerate. | Medium-low |
CSGP AI stock forecast
The CSGP AI stock forecast uses a three-year scenario model around the July 31, 2026 close of $28.76. The model compounds the affirmed 2026 adjusted EPS guidance of about $1.36 at 18%, 12%, and 5% annual growth with exit multiples of 20x, 16x, and 12x, producing a bearish area near $18, a base area near $30, and a bullish area near $45. The analyst consensus average target is $37.10.
$42 to $47
More likely if CoStar re-accelerates net new bookings, Homes.com depth advertising scales, adjusted EBITDA keeps expanding toward the $780 million to $820 million goal, and investors pay about 20x normalized earnings near the upper end of analyst targets.
$28 to $33
More likely if adjusted EPS compounds near 12%, revenue grows in the mid-teens after the guidance reset, margins improve gradually, and the market keeps CSGP near 15x to 16x forward earnings.
$17 to $21
More likely if bookings stay soft, residential competition or litigation disrupts Apartments.com and Homes.com growth, revenue guidance is cut again, or the multiple compresses toward 12x forward earnings.
CSGP AI technical analysis
CSGP AI technical analysis as of the August 2, 2026 data cutoff shows a stock in a severe medium-term downtrend, down about 70% over the past 52 weeks and trading near its 52-week low of $25.89. CSGP closed near $28.76 on July 31, 2026, below the 5-day average near $29.51, the 20-day near $28.94, the 50-day near $30.71, the 100-day near $34.54, and the 200-day near $48.79. The 14-day RSI is near 46 and the 14-day ADX near 15, so momentum is neutral and the near-term trend is not strongly established. Because this page does not fetch request-time market data, confirm all levels on a live chart before acting.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $28.76 | StockAnalysis and Barchart quote snapshots as of the July 31, 2026 close, used for market cap math at the August 2, 2026 data cutoff. |
| 52-week low support | $25.89 | The 52-week low is the first major support. A close below it would signal further downside in the medium-term downtrend. |
| Near support zone | $28.94 to $29.51 | The 20-day moving average near $28.94 and the 5-day near $29.51 form the nearest short-term support zone for any rebound. |
| Near resistance | $30.71 | The 50-day moving average near $30.71 is the first overhead barrier. Reclaiming it would be the first sign the short-term trend is turning. |
| Secondary resistance | $34.54 | The 100-day moving average near $34.54 is the next recovery zone where sellers could return. |
| Higher resistance | $48.79 | The 200-day moving average near $48.79 marks the long-term trend line. The stock would need sustained improvement to approach it. |
| 50-day moving average | $30.71 | Barchart and StockAnalysis report the 50-day average near $30.71, above the current price, so the medium-term trend is still down. |
| 200-day moving average | $48.79 | Barchart and StockAnalysis report the 200-day trend line near $48.79, far above the current price, keeping the long-term trend filter bearish. |
| Momentum | RSI near 46, ADX near 15 | The 14-day RSI near 46 is neutral and the 14-day ADX near 15 suggests no strong near-term trend, so momentum is stabilizing rather than clearly bullish. |
| Volume | About 8.0 million average daily shares | The 20-day average volume is near 8 million shares, with heavier trading around the July 28, 2026 earnings report. |
| Volatility | Elevated | Barchart reports 14-day historical volatility near 53% with a 14-day average true range near $1.70, so position sizing should allow wide daily swings. |
| Invalidation | Close below $25.89 | A decisive close below the 52-week low would confirm the bearish trend continuation and raise the bearish scenario probability. |
CSGP AI trading strategy
The CSGP AI trading strategy is a rules-based research framework, not personalized advice. It combines the profitability inflection data, net new booking evidence, technical confirmation, and clearly defined invalidation levels.
Wait for CSGP to reclaim the 50-day area near $30.71 and hold above the $34.54 area on rising volume before treating the medium-term downtrend as repaired.
A failed move at the 50-day or 100-day area, or a close back below the 20-day near $28.94, should reduce confidence in the setup.
If CSGP stabilizes between the 52-week low near $25.89 and the 20-day near $28.94, compare the price reaction with Q3 2026 results, net new bookings, Homes.com depth advertising, and adjusted EBITDA.
Do not average down only because CoStar has a strong data moat. A break below $25.89 should trigger a fresh thesis review.
Track net new bookings, CoStar and LoopNet renewal rates, Apartments.com paid properties and ARPU, Homes.com revenue and run rate, adjusted EBITDA margin, free cash flow, buyback pace, the Zonda close, and the Zillow litigation.
Lower the rating if bookings keep falling year over year, if the revenue outlook needs another reset, or if residential growth slows without margin recovery.
Investment research summary
CoStar sells proprietary real estate data, analytics, marketplaces, and advertising that help brokers, owners, lenders, property managers, agents, and consumers search, price, market, and transact property.
The moat is strongest in commercial real estate data depth, research operations, subscription workflow habits, marketplace scale, and brands such as CoStar, LoopNet, Apartments.com, and Homes.com.
The thesis can fail if net new bookings keep declining, Homes.com and Apartments.com monetization stalls, Zillow litigation or competition disrupts growth, Ten-X and Zonda integration distract management, or the revenue outlook needs another cut.
Founder CEO Andy Florance is shifting from growth at all costs to profitable growth, holding costs up only 2% in Q2 and guiding to record adjusted EBITDA, but the reduced revenue outlook and CFO transition are tests of execution.
Real estate search, property data, AI-enabled visualization, digital lead generation, and marketplace advertising are long-term trends, but housing cycles, commercial real estate stress, and portal competition make demand uneven.
At about 3.3x TTM sales and 18.6x forward earnings, CSGP is far cheaper than its former growth multiple, but margin of safety depends on whether bookings re-accelerate and adjusted EPS compounds toward guidance.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| CSGP price | $28.76 close on July 31, 2026 | StockAnalysis.com quote snapshot | August 1, 2026 |
| Market capitalization | $11.65 billion, verified as $28.76 x 405.20 million shares with 0.03% variance | StockAnalysis.com share count and financial_rigor.py | August 2, 2026 |
| 52-week range | $25.89 to $97.43 | StockAnalysis.com overview statistics | August 1, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 revenue | $925 million, up 18% year over year | CoStar Group Q2 2026 earnings call | July 28, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 adjusted EBITDA | $184 million, 20% margin, more than doubled year over year, above the high end of guidance | CoStar Group Q2 2026 earnings release and call | July 28, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 net income | Net income increased 817% and EBITDA rose 441% year over year | CoStar Group Q2 2026 earnings release | July 28, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 net new bookings | $69 million, up 3% from Q1 but down roughly 26% year over year | CoStar Group Q2 2026 earnings call | July 28, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 segment revenue | Commercial $481 million up 8%, residential $444 million up 33% | CoStar Group Q2 2026 earnings call | July 28, 2026 |
| Homes.com metrics | Revenue $28.5 million up 66%, $116 million annualized run rate up 78%, 36,000 agent subscribers up 107% | CoStar Group Q2 2026 earnings call | July 28, 2026 |
| Apartments.com metrics | Revenue $318 million up 9%, about 93,000 paid properties up 12%, renewal rate 99% | CoStar Group Q2 2026 earnings call | July 28, 2026 |
| FY2026 guidance | Revenue revised to $3.715 billion to $3.755 billion, adjusted EPS affirmed at $1.32 to $1.39, adjusted EBITDA affirmed at $780 million to $820 million | CoStar Group Q2 2026 earnings release and call | July 28, 2026 |
| Q3 2026 guidance | Revenue $935 million to $945 million, adjusted EPS $0.31 to $0.34, adjusted EBITDA $190 million to $210 million | CoStar Group Q2 2026 earnings call | July 28, 2026 |
| Share repurchases | 2.4 million shares for $82.1 million in Q2, $587 million in 2026 year to date, about $700 million planned for 2026 | CoStar Group Q2 2026 earnings call | July 28, 2026 |
| Balance sheet | Cash and equivalents about $1.27 billion, total debt about $1.16 billion, net cash about $111 million at June 30, 2026 | StockAnalysis.com statistics | August 1, 2026 |
| TTM financials | Revenue $3.556 billion, net income $74 million, free cash flow $227 million for the trailing twelve months | StockAnalysis.com financials | August 1, 2026 |
| Valuation check | 3.28x trailing sales, 1.47x book, 18.64x forward earnings, 51.34x free cash flow, PEG 0.51 | financial_rigor.py and StockAnalysis.com statistics | August 1, 2026 |
| Analyst consensus | Buy with an average target of $37.10 across 21 analysts, low $25, high $53, median $35 | StockAnalysis.com forecast | July 30, 2026 |
| Post-Q2 analyst actions | Citi to Neutral at $33, KBW and William Blair to Market Perform, JPMorgan to $52, BTIG to $42, Goldman Sachs to $40, Needham to $40, Citizens to $35, Wolfe to $32, Wells Fargo Sell at $25 | TheFly analyst notes via StockAnalysis.com news | July 30, 2026 |
| FY2026 and FY2027 consensus estimates | FY2026 revenue $3.74 billion with adjusted EPS $1.36, FY2027 revenue $4.13 billion with adjusted EPS $1.72 | StockAnalysis.com forecast | July 30, 2026 |
| Technical snapshot | 20-day average near $28.94, 50-day near $30.71, 100-day near $34.54, 200-day near $48.79, RSI near 46, ADX near 15 | Barchart and StockAnalysis.com technical snapshots | August 1, 2026 |
| Short interest | 16.32 million shares short, 4.03% of shares outstanding, 2.21 days to cover | StockAnalysis.com statistics | August 1, 2026 |
| Zonda acquisition | Agreed in May 2026 to acquire Zonda, a new home construction data provider, expected to close in the second half of 2026 | CoStar Group Q2 2026 earnings call | July 28, 2026 |
| Zillow competition | FTC and state attorneys general sued Zillow over alleged multifamily advertising arrangements, and CoStar sued Zillow over unauthorized use of CoStar copyright photographs | CoStar Group Q2 2026 earnings call | July 28, 2026 |
| CFO transition | CFO Chris Lown is departing for Allstate; Robin Rossmann was promoted to CFO | CoStar Group Q2 2026 earnings call | July 28, 2026 |
This CSGP AI stock analysis is an informational research tool only. It is not investment advice, a recommendation, a solicitation, or a guarantee of future performance. Forecast ranges are scenarios based on available public data as of the stated cutoff date and may be wrong. Always verify current market data and consult a qualified adviser for personal financial decisions.
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