Bullish case
$49 to $53
More likely if adjusted EPS compounds near 15% for three years, residential traffic monetizes, Matterport and Domain integration support growth, and investors pay about 25x normalized earnings.
CoStar Group, Inc. research snapshot
CSGP AI Stock Analysis
CSGP AI stock analysis currently reads CoStar Group, Inc. as a high-quality commercial real estate data and marketplace company that is spending aggressively to build a larger residential portal business through Homes.com and related acquisitions. At the July 8, 2026 cutoff, the verified market snapshot used here was about $29.87 per share, a $12.20 billion market capitalization, 408.36 million shares outstanding, about $3.41 billion in TTM revenue, and very low GAAP trailing earnings because residential investment, acquisitions, and marketing are depressing reported profit. The stock is not a simple AI buy signal. The central question is whether CoStar can convert its data moat and traffic investment into durable residential marketplace economics without permanently diluting returns. This is informational research and not investment advice.
Current price
$29.87
Market cap
$12.20 billion
AI score
58 / 100
Rating
High-quality data platform, high execution and valuation risk
Trend status
Bearish medium-term trend, below major moving averages after a large drawdown
Data cutoff (updated weekly)
July 8, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
Research quality check
- information Richness
- A-level information richness. CoStar has long SEC history, detailed company releases, market data, technical datasets, analyst coverage, proxy disclosure, and visible debate around Homes.com investment.
- bias Check
- The main AI bias risk is over-weighting CoStar historical commercial real estate data quality and under-weighting the execution risk of competing with Zillow, Realtor.com, and private marketplace operators in residential search.
- ai Confidence
- High data confidence
- investment Certainty
- Medium-low. The data subscription franchise is well documented, but investment certainty is lower because current earnings are intentionally depressed and future residential portal returns are not yet proven.
Quick verdict table
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | CoStar sells subscription data, analytics, marketplaces, and advertising across commercial real estate, multifamily, land, and residential property categories. | High |
| Moat | The strongest moat is proprietary property data, research coverage, workflow integration, and network liquidity in commercial real estate marketplaces. | Medium-high |
| Management | Founder CEO Andy Florance has built CoStar through data, product expansion, and acquisitions, but the Homes.com spending cycle is a major capital allocation test. | Medium-high |
| Financial trend | Q1 2026 revenue grew 23% to $897 million, while GAAP net income was only $3 million and adjusted EBITDA was $53 million. | High |
| Valuation | At $29.87, CSGP traded near 3.6x TTM sales, about 1.5x book value, and an extremely high GAAP P/E because TTM EPS was near $0.06. | Medium-high |
| Technical trend | The stock traded far below prior 52-week highs and below major moving-average references, so price action still requires proof of repair. | Medium |
| Risk level | Key risks are Homes.com monetization, marketing intensity, acquisition integration, commercial real estate cyclicality, high GAAP multiple optics, and competition. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | High confidence for filings, recent earnings, share count, market-cap math, and balance sheet data. Lower confidence for residential portal unit economics. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | Medium-low certainty. CoStar has durable assets, but the stock needs evidence that residential investment can produce attractive incremental returns. | Medium-low |
CSGP AI stock forecast
CSGP AI Stock Forecast Scenarios
The CSGP AI stock forecast uses scenario ranges around the $29.87 cutoff price. It does not claim that AI can predict a precise stock price. The bullish case requires CoStar to prove that Homes.com, Matterport, Domain, Apartments.com, and core commercial subscriptions can compound revenue while margins recover. The base case assumes revenue growth continues but investors wait for stronger GAAP profit. The bearish case assumes residential competition and marketing spend keep returns below expectations.
Base case
$32 to $36
More likely if adjusted EPS grows near 8%, revenue reaches management outlook, margins recover gradually, and the market values CSGP near 20x normalized earnings.
Bearish case
$13 to $16
More likely if Homes.com monetization disappoints, marketing spend stays elevated, commercial real estate demand softens, or the market values CSGP near 12x normalized earnings.
CSGP AI technical analysis
CSGP AI Technical Analysis
CSGP AI technical analysis starts from the $29.87 cutoff price used for this July 8 static page. Public technical snapshots showed CSGP below major medium-term moving averages, with a weak trend profile after a severe decline from the 52-week high. Because this page does not fetch request-time market data, traders should confirm all technical levels on a live chart before acting.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $29.87 | Latest verified market quote used for this static page as of the July 8, 2026 data cutoff. |
| Near support | $28 to $30 | Support planning zone around the cutoff price and recent post-drawdown trading area. |
| Secondary support | $24 to $25 | Risk-control zone below near support. A move into this area would signal that sellers still control the trend. |
| Near resistance | $34 to $36 | First recovery zone where a failed bounce would keep the bearish trend intact. |
| Higher resistance | $42 to $45 | A larger recovery zone that would require stronger earnings, traffic monetization, and volume confirmation. |
| 50-day moving average | About $34 to $36 | Technical sources around the cutoff placed CSGP below the short-term moving-average area. |
| 200-day moving average | About $66 to $70 | The stock was far below long-term trend references, keeping the medium-term trend filter cautious. |
| Momentum | Weak to neutral | Momentum needs a higher low and a recovery above the 50-day area before the trend improves. |
| Volume | Watch for above-average rebound volume | A recovery without higher participation would be less reliable after the drawdown. |
| Volatility | Elevated after drawdown | Position sizing should allow for wider swings while the market reprices growth and margin risk. |
| Invalidation | Close below $28 | A sustained close below the near-support zone would weaken a mean-reversion setup and raise the bearish scenario probability. |
CSGP AI trading strategy
CSGP AI Trading Strategy Framework
The CSGP AI trading strategy is a rules-based framework, not personalized advice. It combines data-subscription quality, Homes.com execution evidence, technical confirmation, and clearly defined invalidation levels.
Trend-following setup
Wait for CSGP to reclaim the $34 to $36 area, hold it for multiple sessions, and show improving volume before treating the downtrend as repaired.
A failed move above the 50-day area or a close back below $28 should reduce confidence in the setup.
Mean-reversion setup
If CSGP stabilizes near $28 to $30, compare price action with Q2 2026 revenue growth, Homes.com monetization, adjusted EBITDA, and marketing intensity.
Do not average down only because CoStar has a strong data moat. A support break should trigger a fresh thesis review.
Fundamental monitor
Track net new sales bookings, subscription retention, Apartments.com growth, Homes.com traffic and revenue, Matterport integration, Domain acquisition progress, GAAP profit, adjusted EBITDA, cash, and debt.
Lower the rating if revenue growth requires persistently rising sales and marketing spend without visible margin recovery.
Investment research summary
Four-master Research Compression
Business essence
CoStar sells proprietary real estate data, analytics, marketplaces, and advertising that help brokers, owners, lenders, property managers, agents, and consumers search, price, market, and transact property.
Moat
The moat is strongest in commercial real estate data depth, research operations, subscription workflow habits, marketplace scale, and trusted brands such as CoStar, LoopNet, Apartments.com, and Homes.com.
Munger risk inversion
The thesis can fail if residential portals remain a cash sink, traffic does not monetize, acquisitions distract management, commercial real estate customers cut budgets, or GAAP earnings stay too low for too long.
Management
Founder CEO Andy Florance has a long record of building and buying data assets, but the current test is whether aggressive residential and international expansion earns a high return on capital.
Industry trend
Real estate search, property data, AI-enabled visualization, digital lead generation, and marketplace advertising are long-term trends, but housing cycles and commercial real estate stress can make demand uneven.
Valuation and margin of safety
At about 3.6x TTM sales and 1.5x book value, the stock is far cheaper than its former growth multiple, but margin of safety depends on normalized earnings recovery rather than GAAP trailing profit.
Source-backed data
CSGP Data Table
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| CSGP price | $29.87 latest verified market quote | StockAnalysis CSGP statistics and market snapshot | July 8, 2026 |
| Market capitalization | $12.20 billion, verified as $29.87 x 408.36 million shares with 0.02% variance | StockAnalysis share count and financial_rigor.py | July 8, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 revenue | $897 million, up 23% year over year | CoStar Group Q1 2026 earnings release | July 8, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 GAAP net income | $3 million, versus a $15 million loss in Q1 2025 | CoStar Group Q1 2026 earnings release | July 8, 2026 |
| FY2025 revenue | $3.247 billion, up 19% year over year | CoStar Group FY2025 earnings release | July 8, 2026 |
| TTM revenue | $3.411 billion consensus, cross-validated from CoStar FY2025 plus Q1 bridge and StockAnalysis | CoStar releases, StockAnalysis, and financial_rigor.py | July 8, 2026 |
| Cash and equivalents | $1.215 billion company-reported, cross-validated against $1.22 billion from StockAnalysis | CoStar Q1 2026 balance sheet and StockAnalysis | July 8, 2026 |
| Long-term debt | $994 million at March 31, 2026 | CoStar Group Q1 2026 balance sheet | July 8, 2026 |
| 2026 outlook | $3.800 billion to $3.825 billion revenue and $1.34 to $1.37 adjusted EPS | CoStar Group 2026 outlook release | July 8, 2026 |
| Management ownership | Founder CEO Andrew Florance beneficially owned about 8.0 million shares, or 1.9%, in the 2026 proxy | CoStar Group 2026 proxy statement | July 8, 2026 |
| Technical trend reference | Price below major medium-term moving averages, with first resistance around the $34 to $36 area | Investing.com and Barchart CSGP technical snapshots | July 8, 2026 |
Frequently Asked Questions
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This CSGP AI stock analysis is an informational research tool only. It is not investment advice, a recommendation, a solicitation, or a guarantee of future performance. Forecast ranges are scenarios based on available public data as of the stated cutoff date and may be wrong. Always verify current market data and consult a qualified adviser for personal financial decisions.