Zillow Group, Inc. Class A research snapshot
ZG AI stock analysis currently reads Zillow Group as a scaled digital real estate platform with a leading consumer audience, growing Rentals and Mortgages businesses, and improving operating cash flow. The latest verified close used here was $32.00 on July 10, 2026, implying a market capitalization of about $7.32 billion using 228.80 million shares. Revenue reached $2.583 billion in 2025 and Q1 2026 revenue rose 18% year over year to $708 million, but Q1 cash and investments fell to $788 million after $626 million of share repurchases. The stock also trades below its 50-day and 200-day moving averages. The main question is whether Zillow can turn audience, listings, agent software, rentals, and mortgage relationships into durable earnings without losing share to Google, CoStar, brokerages, or changing listing rules. This page is for information only and is not investment advice.
Current price
$32.00
Market cap
$7.32 billion
AI score
61 / 100
Rating
Quality housing platform, cyclical demand, limited GAAP margin of safety
Trend status
Below the 50-day and 200-day moving averages
Data cutoff (updated weekly)
July 12, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Zillow connects buyers, sellers, renters, agents, property managers, and loan officers through Residential, Mortgages, Rentals, and related software. Its 2025 revenue grew 15.5% to $2.583 billion and Q1 2026 revenue grew 18%. | High |
| Moat | The moat is audience reach, brand recognition, listing and housing data, agent workflow integration, and network density between consumers and professionals. It is meaningful but exposed to MLS access, Google discovery, CoStar, brokerages, and regulation. | Medium-high |
| Management | Jeremy Wacksman became CEO in August 2024 after senior operating roles. Management has improved revenue and adjusted EBITDA and authorized large repurchases, but the $626 million Q1 2026 buyback reduced cash and makes capital allocation timing an important test. | Medium |
| Financial trend | Revenue rose from $1.945 billion in 2023 to $2.236 billion in 2024 and $2.583 billion in 2025. GAAP net income moved from losses in 2021 through 2024 to $23 million in 2025, while TTM net income was $61 million and TTM free cash flow was $333 million. | High |
| Valuation | At $32.00, the stock was about 133.33x TTM EPS and 21.92x TTM free cash flow using verified inputs. The valuation can work only if revenue growth, operating leverage, and cash conversion improve materially beyond the thin current GAAP profit base. | High |
| Technical trend | The July 10 close was below the reported 50-day moving average of $36.53 and 200-day moving average of $54.50. RSI near 43 was weak but not deeply oversold, and July 10 volume was below the reported 20-day average. | Medium-high |
| Risk level | Risk is high because housing transactions and mortgage rates are cyclical, Rentals and Mortgages require execution, the company faces FTC and other litigation, listing access can change, and Google, CoStar, brokerages, and AI search can pressure discovery and monetization. | High |
| AI confidence | The descriptive data is well supported by SEC filings, company releases, and market data. Confidence is lower for a forward price range because platform economics and legal outcomes are not mechanically predictable. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | The business is easier to understand than the stock outcome. A durable platform is visible, but the price still needs sustained growth, margin expansion, and disciplined capital allocation to create a comfortable margin of safety. | Medium-low |
ZG AI stock forecast
The ZG AI stock forecast uses conditional ranges rather than a point target. A mechanical three-year sensitivity using $0.24 TTM EPS, 20%, 12%, and negative 5% annual EPS growth, and 30x, 22x, and 15x exit PE assumptions produced $12.40, $7.40, and $3.10 outputs. That result is a warning about the low GAAP earnings base, not a reliable price target. The practical forecast depends more on Residential and Rentals growth, mortgage conversion, adjusted EBITDA, free cash flow, cash after buybacks, share count, housing turnover, and litigation outcomes.
$45 to $65
More likely if housing turnover improves, Residential and Rentals keep growing faster than the market, Zillow Home Loans converts more platform demand, adjusted EBITDA expands into cash earnings, legal exposure stays manageable, and repurchases occur below intrinsic value.
$25 to $40
More likely if the platform grows at a moderate rate but housing activity stays uneven, Rentals remains the strongest segment, mortgage contribution fluctuates with rates, legal costs remain elevated, and the market waits for a wider GAAP profit margin.
$12 to $24
More likely if housing turnover stays depressed, traffic and listing access weaken, Google or CoStar takes valuable discovery and rental demand, the FTC or other cases create costly remedies, buybacks deplete liquidity, or stock-based compensation and share issuance offset cash earnings.
ZG AI technical analysis
ZG AI technical analysis uses the July 10, 2026 close of $32.00 and the latest public technical snapshot available by the July 12 cutoff. StockAnalysis reported a 50-day moving average of $36.53, a 200-day moving average of $54.50, RSI of 43.00, beta of 1.95, and 20-day average volume of 1.52 million shares. This page does not fetch request-time chart data, so confirm all levels in a live chart before acting.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $32.00 | July 10, 2026 close used for this static page. The source reported an intraday range of $31.92 to $34.22. |
| Near support | $31.90 to $32.00 | The July 10 low and close form the nearest planning zone. A decisive close below it would weaken the short-term setup. |
| Secondary support | $29.03 to $30.50 | This zone includes the reported 52-week low of $29.03 and the late-June trading base. Reassess it after material company news. |
| Near resistance | $33.36 to $34.22 | The July 9 close and July 10 high mark the first recovery band. A breakout needs volume and business confirmation. |
| 50-day moving average | $36.53 | The latest StockAnalysis snapshot showed price below this intermediate trend reference as of July 8, 2026. |
| 200-day moving average | $54.50 | The long-term trend reference remained far above price in the latest public snapshot. It is not a forecast. |
| Momentum | RSI 43.00 | Momentum was weak but not at a deeply oversold reading. RSI alone does not establish a reversal. |
| Volume | 20-day average 1.52 million shares | July 10 volume was about 589,810 shares, below the reported average. A sustained recovery should show stronger participation. |
| Volatility | Beta 1.95 | The reported five-year beta was high relative to the broad market. Housing, legal, and platform news can create gaps beyond normal beta behavior. |
| Invalidation | Close below $29.03 | A decisive break below the reported 52-week low invalidates this recovery framework until a new base forms. |
ZG AI trading strategy
The ZG AI trading strategy is a rules-based research framework, not personalized advice. It combines price confirmation with housing activity, segment growth, mortgage conversion, cash flow, share count, and legal developments.
Watch for ZG to hold the $31.90 to $32.00 area, reclaim $33.36 to $34.22 with above-average volume, and then challenge the $36.53 moving average. Treat the move as stronger when Residential, Rentals, or Zillow Home Loans data confirms it.
Define risk before entry. A failed recovery or close below $29.03 can serve as a rules-based invalidation condition.
If ZG tests the $29.03 to $31.90 planning zone without a new legal, listing-access, traffic, or earnings thesis break, wait for stabilization and compare price action with cash generation and housing data.
Do not average down solely because the price fell. The setup breaks if support fails alongside weaker platform evidence or a higher capital requirement.
Track residential revenue, Rentals growth, mortgage origination volume, monthly unique users, visits, adjusted EBITDA, GAAP net income, adjusted free cash flow, cash and investments, repurchases, diluted shares, and FTC or other litigation updates.
Refresh the scenario after earnings, major legal rulings, listing policy changes, mortgage-rate shifts, share repurchases, or material changes in Google and CoStar competition. Do not rely on stale technical levels after a high-impact event.
Investment research summary
Zillow monetizes the housing search and transaction journey by connecting consumers with agents, lenders, landlords, and software. Residential remains the largest segment, while Rentals and Mortgages provide additional ways to earn from the same intent-rich audience.
The potential moat is a familiar brand, a large consumer audience, housing data, listing liquidity, agent workflow tools, and network effects between demand and professionals. The moat is useful but not absolute because listing feeds, search distribution, and professional budgets can move.
The thesis fails if housing turnover stays low, mortgage rates delay transactions, MLS or brokerage policies restrict inventory, Google or CoStar captures discovery, Rentals growth normalizes, legal claims force costly remedies, or buybacks consume liquidity before earnings become durable.
Jeremy Wacksman has long operating experience inside Zillow and became CEO in 2024. The team has expanded revenue and adjusted EBITDA and returned capital, but the next management test is whether buybacks, product investment, mortgage risk controls, and litigation spending are sequenced around durable free cash flow.
The long-term shift toward digital housing search, online rental discovery, integrated financing, and software for agents supports the category. Yet the underlying housing market is slow, regulated, rate sensitive, and dependent on listing access, so a large addressable market does not guarantee near-term monetization.
At $32.00 and about $7.32 billion of market value, ZG was roughly 133.33x TTM GAAP EPS and 21.92x TTM free cash flow using the verified inputs. The stock needs sustained cash conversion and better GAAP profitability to create a margin of safety; audience scale alone is not enough.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| ZG price | $32.00 close on July 10, 2026 | Investing.com historical data | July 12, 2026 |
| Market capitalization | $7.32 billion, verified as $32.00 x 228.80 million shares with 0.02% deviation | StockAnalysis and financial_rigor.py | July 12, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding | 228.80 million shares in the StockAnalysis market-cap input | StockAnalysis statistics | July 8, 2026 |
| FY2025 revenue | $2.583 billion, up from $2.236 billion in 2024 | SEC 2025 Form 10-K | July 12, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 revenue | $708 million, up 18% year over year | Zillow Group Q1 2026 results | July 12, 2026 |
| FY2025 net income | $23 million, versus a $112 million loss in 2024 | SEC 2025 Form 10-K and Macrotrends | July 12, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 cash and investments | $788 million; Q1 adjusted free cash flow was $127 million | Zillow Q1 2026 shareholder letter | July 12, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 segment revenue | Residential $450 million, Mortgages $64 million, Rentals $183 million | Zillow Group Q1 2026 results | July 12, 2026 |
| Technical snapshot | 50-day $36.53, 200-day $54.50, RSI 43.00, beta 1.95, average volume 1.52 million | StockAnalysis statistics | July 8, 2026 |
| July 10 trading range | $33.75 open, $34.22 high, $31.92 low, $32.00 close, 589,810 shares | Investing.com historical data | July 12, 2026 |
| Competition and legal risk | FTC alleges an illegal Zillow and Redfin rental advertising agreement; Zillow disputes the allegations | Federal Trade Commission case record | July 12, 2026 |
This ZG AI stock analysis page is an informational tool for research and education only. It is not investment advice, a recommendation, or a guarantee of future performance. Forecast ranges are scenarios based on available data and stated assumptions as of July 12, 2026 and can be wrong.
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