Chesapeake Utilities Corporation research snapshot
CPK AI stock analysis as of the August 4, 2026 data cutoff reads Chesapeake Utilities Corporation as a quality regulated growth utility priced at a premium. The stock closed at $133.86 on August 3, 2026, up 1.08 or 0.81% from the $132.78 July 31 close, after opening at $132.22 and trading in a session range of $131.96 to $134.70, carrying a market capitalization near $3.21 billion that matches the $133.86 price times about 24.00 million shares outstanding, with the Q1 2026 Form 10-Q cover listing 24,004,761 shares as of May 4, 2026. The company runs regulated natural gas and electric distribution across Delaware, Maryland, Florida, and Ohio plus unregulated propane, transmission, and LNG services, and it grew 2025 revenue 18.14% to $930.0 million with net income up 18.30% to $140.3 million. Q1 2026 delivered revenue of $353.1 million, net income of $59.3 million, and diluted EPS of $2.47, up 11.8% year over year, while management reaffirmed 2026 capital guidance of $450 million to $500 million and the 2028 EPS range of $7.75 to $8.00. On July 13, 2026, the company announced the Florida Energy Pathway, an approximately $1.2 billion intrastate natural gas infrastructure project in south Florida, which is large relative to the current enterprise value near $4.88 billion. The stock trades at about 21.37x trailing earnings and 19.90x forward earnings, above the regulated gas utility peer median, with negative free cash flow of about $210 million over the trailing twelve months because of the heavy capital program. This page is an informational research tool and is not investment advice.
Current price
$133.86 at the August 3, 2026, 4:00 PM EDT market close, up 1.08 or 0.81% from the $132.78 July 31 close, after opening at $132.22 and trading in a session range of $131.96 to $134.70 on the real-time quote, with an after-hours quote of $133.89, up 0.03 or 0.02%
Market cap
$3.21 billion at the August 3, 2026 market close, matching the $133.86 price times about 24.00 million shares outstanding, with the Q1 2026 Form 10-Q cover listing 24,004,761 shares as of May 4, 2026
AI score
65 / 100
Rating
Quality regulated growth utility at a premium valuation
Trend status
Above the 20-day, 50-day, and 200-day moving averages near $132.48, $126.78, and $128.66, sitting just below the 5-day average near $134.90 and below the 52-week high of $140.83
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | CPK sells essential natural gas and electric distribution services across Delaware, Maryland, Florida, Ohio, and adjacent states under regulated tariffs, plus unregulated propane and LNG services. Customers pay for essential heating, cooking, and power services that are largely non-discretionary, making revenue recession-resilient, and 2025 revenue grew 18.14% with net income up 18.30%. | High |
| Moat | Regulated utility franchises in Delaware, Maryland, Florida, and Ohio provide legal monopolies over gas and electric distribution in defined service territories. Pipeline infrastructure, franchise agreements, and regulatory approvals are capital-intensive and time-consuming to replicate. The moat is structural but regulated, meaning returns are capped by state commission rate decisions. | High |
| Management | CEO Jeffry M. Householder has led CPK since 2013 with a consistent growth strategy combining organic rate base investment and disciplined M&A. The CFO transition completed on July 1, 2026 with Jeff Sylvester, the former COO, taking the role. Capital allocation prioritizes regulated investment, a 45% to 50% dividend payout target, and an 8% long-term EPS growth goal through 2028. | Medium-high |
| Financial trend | CPK has shown consistent revenue and earnings growth. FY2025 revenue of $930.0 million grew 18.14% and net income of $140.3 million grew 18.30%. Q1 2026 revenue was $353.1 million with net income of $59.3 million and EPS of $2.47, up 11.8% year over year, and adjusted gross margin rose 13% to about $206 million. The offset is negative free cash flow of about $210 million TTM from a $450 million to $500 million annual capital program. | High |
| Valuation | At the verified reference price, CPK trades at about 21.37x trailing P/E, 19.90x forward P/E, 1.93x P/B, 3.27x P/S, and 13.14x EV/EBITDA, with a 2.20% dividend yield. The trailing P/E is above the median for regulated gas utilities (typically 17x to 19x), reflecting the market pricing in continued rate base growth and the Florida Energy Pathway opportunity. | Medium |
| Technical trend | Around the cutoff the stock traded near $133.86, above the 20-day, 50-day, and 200-day moving averages near $132.48, $126.78, and $128.66 but below the 5-day average near $134.90 and the 52-week high of $140.83 reached on July 28, 2026. The trend is constructive but consolidating after the mid-July run. | Medium |
| Risk level | Moderate. Primary risks include adverse rate case outcomes, warmer-than-normal weather reducing heating demand, rising interest rates compressing utility valuations, the financing burden of the $1.2 billion Florida Energy Pathway project, negative free cash flow funded by debt and equity, WRU LNG project execution, and natural gas price volatility in the unregulated segments. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | Company-reported regulated financial data, rate base filings, and dividend history are well documented in SEC filings and cross-validated across StockAnalysis.com and SEC EDGAR XBRL. Price scenarios and technical levels are time-sensitive and depend on interest rate direction, rate case outcomes, the Florida Energy Pathway financing plan, and weather patterns. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | Medium because the regulated utility model provides predictable but capped returns. The premium valuation versus larger regulated peers and the negative free cash flow reduce the margin of safety, and the growth strategy becomes harder to fund as the capital program scales. The dividend provides a partial return floor. | Medium |
CPK AI stock forecast
The CPK AI stock forecast uses three-year scenario ranges from the $133.86 August 3, 2026 reference price, not a point target. The ranges use the financial_rigor.py three-scenario model with the FY2026 adjusted EPS consensus of $6.43 as the base year and EPS growth of 3%, 8%, and 10% with exit multiples of 17x to 18x, 19.5x to 21x, and 21.5x to 23x. They can be wrong and should be refreshed after the August 6, 2026 Q2 earnings release, the Florida City Gas rate case, interest rate changes, and updates on the Florida Energy Pathway project.
$180 to $200
More likely if CPK compounds EPS at a 10% or higher rate through the Florida Energy Pathway project, constructive Florida City Gas rate case outcomes, sustained customer growth in Florida and Delmarva, data center gas demand, and lower interest rates that allow the P/E multiple to expand toward the low 20s.
$150 to $175
More likely if CPK delivers its targeted 8% long-term EPS CAGR through 2028, the $1.2 billion Florida Energy Pathway project closes as planned, the rate case produces reasonable results, and the stock holds a P/E multiple near 19x to 21x on the growing EPS base.
$110 to $130
More likely if the Florida Energy Pathway project raises financing costs or dilutes shareholders through heavy equity issuance, the rate case produces weak results, interest rates rise and compress utility P/E multiples toward 17x, customer growth slows, or the WRU LNG project suffers further delays.
CPK AI technical analysis
CPK AI technical analysis is constructive as of the August 4, 2026 data cutoff. The stock closed at $133.86 on August 3, 2026, up 0.81%, above the 20-day, 50-day, and 200-day moving averages near $132.48, $126.78, and $128.66 but below the 5-day average near $134.90 and the 52-week high of $140.83 set on July 28. The 5-day and 20-day moving averages were computed from the StockAnalysis.com daily closing price history, and the 50-day and 200-day values come from the StockAnalysis.com statistics page. Confirm support, resistance, moving averages, momentum, volume, volatility, and invalidation levels in a live chart before acting.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $133.86 | StockAnalysis.com real-time quote at the August 3, 2026, 4:00 PM EDT market close, up 1.08 or 0.81% from the $132.78 July 31 close after opening at $132.22 and trading in a session range of $131.96 to $134.70, with an after-hours quote of $133.89 up 0.03 or 0.02% and an implied market cap near $3.21 billion matching the price times about 24.00 million shares. |
| 5-day moving average | $134.90 | Computed as the simple average of the five closing prices through August 3, 2026 in the StockAnalysis.com daily price history, just above the current price, which signals short-term momentum is cooling after the mid-July run. |
| 20-day moving average | $132.48 | Computed as the simple average of the twenty closing prices through August 3, 2026 in the StockAnalysis.com daily price history, an immediate support reference for pullbacks. |
| 50-day moving average | $126.78 | StockAnalysis.com statistics reported the 50-day moving average near $126.78 on August 3, 2026, below the current price and confirming the medium-term uptrend. |
| 200-day moving average | $128.66 | StockAnalysis.com statistics reported the 200-day trend line near $128.66 on August 3, 2026, below the current price and confirming the longer-term uptrend. |
| Near support | $126 to $132 | The cluster formed by the 20-day moving average near $132.48 and the 50-day moving average near $126.78 is the first meaningful support zone. These are planning levels, not guaranteed floors. |
| Near resistance | $135 to $141 | The area from the recent session high near $134.70 up to the 52-week high of $140.83 set on July 28, 2026. A sustained close above $140 with volume would signal a new breakout toward the analyst consensus target of $148. |
| Momentum | RSI near 56.6 | The 14-day RSI was near 56.60 on StockAnalysis.com statistics on August 3, 2026, strong but not overbought. |
| Volume | About 235,000 average shares | StockAnalysis.com statistics listed 20-day average volume near 235,121 shares on August 3, 2026, with the August 3 session showing about 210,000 shares traded and the July 13 Florida Energy Pathway announcement day showing about 316,000 shares. |
| Volatility | Low for a utility, moderate for the broader market | 52-week range of $118.84 to $140.83, with a beta of 0.70 on StockAnalysis.com statistics, so the stock is less volatile than the broad market. |
| Invalidation | Close below $126.78 | A decisive close below the 50-day moving average near $126.78 would weaken the medium-term uptrend; a close below the June 2026 support near $119 would turn the chart bearish and require a fresh review of fundamentals and the capital program. |
CPK AI trading strategy
The CPK AI trading strategy is a rules-based research framework, not personalized advice. Use position sizing, explicit loss limits, live-chart confirmation, and fresh checks of the Florida Energy Pathway financing plan, rate case outcomes, interest rate direction, earnings trajectory, and sector sentiment.
Consider a position if CPK breaks above $140 (the 52-week high near $140.83) with above-average volume while the interest rate outlook is stable or improving, and the company confirms continued growth in the Q2 2026 earnings release scheduled for August 6, 2026.
A failed breakout or a close back below the $132 area (the 20-day moving average) should invalidate the setup.
If CPK pulls back toward the $126 to $132 support cluster without new regulatory, weather, or financing damage, compare the price reaction with Q2 results, rate case progress, and Florida Energy Pathway updates before acting.
Do not average down without a maximum loss rule because a surprise equity raise, a weak rate case order, or higher interest rates can turn a support zone into a value trap for a negative-free-cash-flow grower.
Track the Florida City Gas rate case and interim rate timing, Florida Energy Pathway development and financing, WRU LNG project schedule, customer growth in Florida and Delmarva, quarterly EPS and revenue relative to consensus, equity issuance, dividend coverage, and the 10-year Treasury direction.
Reduce confidence when the trailing P/E exceeds 23x without matching EPS acceleration, when negative free cash flow widens beyond the TTM level near $210 million, or when the 10-year Treasury yield rises above 5.5% for a sustained period.
Investment research summary
CPK delivers natural gas and electricity to homes and businesses in Delaware, Maryland, Florida, Ohio, and adjacent states under regulated tariffs, and it runs unregulated propane, transmission, and LNG businesses. Customers pay for essential heating, cooking, and power services that are largely non-discretionary, creating a stable revenue base that the company grows through rate base investment, acquisitions, and customer growth.
The moat comes from regulated utility franchises that grant CPK legal monopolies over gas and electric distribution in defined service territories. Pipeline infrastructure, franchise agreements, and regulatory approvals are capital-intensive and time-consuming to replicate. However, economic profits are capped by state commission rate decisions, and the moat depends on maintaining constructive regulatory relationships.
The thesis can fail if the Florida Energy Pathway project costs more than the announced $1.2 billion or forces heavy equity dilution, if the Florida City Gas rate case produces weak results, if rising interest rates persistently compress utility valuations, if the negative free cash flow from the capital program stresses the balance sheet, if warm winters reduce gas demand structurally, or if a major safety or methane incident triggers regulatory backlash.
CEO Jeffry M. Householder has led CPK since 2013 with a consistent strategy of rate base investment and accretive M&A. The company has increased its dividend for 23 consecutive years (66 years of payments), targets a 45% to 50% payout ratio, and has reaffirmed an 8% long-term EPS CAGR with 2028 EPS of $7.75 to $8.00. The CFO transition to Jeff Sylvester on July 1, 2026 continues the same strategy with a deeper focus on process and technology transformation.
Natural gas utilities benefit from natural gas serving as a bridge fuel in the energy transition, with growing demand for gas-fired generation as backup for intermittent renewables and rising interest from data centers in gas supply. Population growth in CPK key Florida and Delmarva markets supports customer growth of roughly 2% to 3.3% per year, and renewable natural gas and LNG represent long-term opportunities. The industry faces headwinds from climate regulation and electrification advocacy in some states.
At the verified reference price, CPK trades near 21.37x trailing P/E, 19.90x forward P/E, 1.93x P/B, and 13.14x EV/EBITDA with negative TTM free cash flow near $210 million. The three-scenario model suggests a base case 3-year target near $158 (about +18%) assuming 8% EPS growth and a 19.5x exit multiple. The bullish scenario near $184 assumes 10% growth and a 21.5x multiple. The bearish scenario near $119 assumes 3% growth and a 17x multiple. The premium to larger peers like ATO and NI requires continued execution and reasonable funding costs.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| CPK price and trading snapshot | $133.86 at the August 3, 2026, 4:00 PM EDT market close, up 1.08 or 0.81% from the $132.78 July 31 close, after opening at $132.22 and trading in a session range of $131.96 to $134.70, with an after-hours quote of $133.89 up 0.03 or 0.02% | StockAnalysis.com real-time quote and daily price history | August 4, 2026 |
| Market capitalization | Near $3.21 billion at the August 3, 2026 market close, matching the $133.86 price times about 24.00 million shares outstanding (0.10% market-cap verification variance), with the Q1 2026 Form 10-Q cover listing 24,004,761 shares as of May 4, 2026 | StockAnalysis.com statistics and SEC EDGAR XBRL, verified with financial_rigor.py | August 4, 2026 |
| Valuation ratios | 21.37x trailing P/E, 19.90x forward P/E, 3.27x P/S, 1.93x P/B, 2.84x P/TBV, 12.06x P/OCF, 2.36 PEG, 13.14x EV/EBITDA, and enterprise value of $4.88 billion | StockAnalysis.com statistics | August 4, 2026 |
| TTM income statement | Revenue of $984.4 million, gross profit of $480 million, operating income of $268.5 million, EBITDA of $371.2 million, pretax income of $204.4 million, net income of $148.7 million, and EPS of $6.24 over the trailing twelve months ended March 31, 2026, with the statistics page reporting EPS of $6.26 | StockAnalysis.com financials and statistics, consistent with SEC EDGAR XBRL | August 4, 2026 |
| FY2025 annual results | Revenue of $930.0 million, up 18.14% from $787.2 million, net income of $140.3 million, up 18.30%, and diluted EPS of $5.97, up 13.5%, matching SEC EDGAR XBRL (930000000 revenue, 140300000 net income, 5.97 EPS) | StockAnalysis.com financials and SEC EDGAR XBRL Form 10-K | August 4, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 results | Revenue of $353.1 million, net income of $59.3 million, diluted EPS of $2.47, up 11.8% year over year, with adjusted EPS of $2.47 versus $2.22 a year earlier, adjusted gross margin up 13% to about $206 million, regulated operating income up 18% to about $71 million, unregulated operating income up 8% to $28 million, and capital investment of $121.9 million | Chesapeake Utilities Q1 2026 earnings release and Q1 2026 Form 10-Q | August 4, 2026 |
| Balance sheet | Cash and cash equivalents of $4.7 million, total debt of about $1.66 billion (short-term borrowings $199.6 million, current long-term debt $134.6 million, and noncurrent long-term debt $1,325.3 million per SEC EDGAR XBRL at March 31, 2026), stockholders equity of $1.65 billion, book value per share of $68.81, and net debt of about $1.66 billion | StockAnalysis.com balance sheet and SEC EDGAR XBRL Q1 2026 Form 10-Q | August 4, 2026 |
| Cash flow and free cash flow | TTM operating cash flow of $266.7 million and capital expenditures of $476.7 million, producing free cash flow of about negative $210 million, with FY2025 operating cash flow of $233.7 million and capital expenditures of $448.6 million, consistent across StockAnalysis.com and SEC EDGAR XBRL | StockAnalysis.com cash flow statement | August 4, 2026 |
| Dividend | Quarterly dividend of $0.735 per share, annual dividend of $2.94 with a 2.20% yield, raised 7.3% in May 2026, 66th consecutive year of dividend payments and 23rd consecutive year of increases, with a 46.93% payout ratio | StockAnalysis.com dividend history and Q1 2026 earnings call | August 4, 2026 |
| Analyst consensus | 6 analysts: Buy consensus with an average price target of $148.00 (about 10.6% above the current price), low $132, high $164, and median $148, with 2 Strong Buy, 1 Buy, and 3 Hold ratings | StockAnalysis.com forecast and ratings | August 4, 2026 |
| Recent analyst target updates | Wells Fargo maintained Hold with a $132 target on July 22, 2026, BTIG maintained Hold on July 14, 2026, Maxim Group maintained Buy with a $160 target on May 9, 2026, and Barclays raised its target to $142 from $140 with a Hold rating on April 20, 2026 | StockAnalysis.com forecast and ratings | August 4, 2026 |
| Earnings estimates | FY2026 revenue estimate of $1.02 billion (up 9.38%) and adjusted EPS of $6.43, FY2027 revenue of $1.07 billion and adjusted EPS of $7.32, with 3-year EPS growth forecast of 9.40% and 3-year revenue growth forecast of 6.50% | StockAnalysis.com forecast financial forecast | August 4, 2026 |
| 52-week range and technical snapshot | 52-week range of $118.84 to $140.83, up 12.02% over the trailing 52 weeks, beta 0.70, 50-day moving average near $126.78 and 200-day moving average near $128.66 on StockAnalysis.com statistics, 14-day RSI near 56.60, 20-day average volume near 235,121 shares, 5-day moving average near $134.90 and 20-day moving average near $132.48 computed from StockAnalysis.com daily price history | StockAnalysis.com statistics and daily price history | August 4, 2026 |
| Florida Energy Pathway project | Approximately $1.2 billion intrastate natural gas infrastructure project in south Florida to be developed, constructed, and operated by the company and its subsidiary Peninsula Pipeline Company, announced July 13, 2026, per the Form 8-K | Chesapeake Utilities Form 8-K filed July 13, 2026 | August 4, 2026 |
| Florida City Gas rate case | A petition filed April 20, 2026 requesting a base rate increase of approximately $47 million and an ROE of 11.25%, with interim rates of $16 million expected effective in the third quarter of 2026 and a hearing expected in the fourth quarter of 2026 or early 2027 | Chesapeake Utilities Q1 2026 earnings call | August 4, 2026 |
| 2026-2028 capital and EPS guidance | 2026 capital guidance of $450 million to $500 million reaffirmed, five-year (2024-2028) capital guidance of $1.5 billion to $1.8 billion, 2028 EPS guidance of $7.75 to $8.00, an 8% long-term EPS CAGR target through 2028, and expected 2026 equity issuance of roughly $60 million through the ATM and waiver programs | Chesapeake Utilities Q1 2026 earnings release and call | August 4, 2026 |
| WRU LNG project update | The WRU LNG storage facility in Bishopville, Maryland is delayed and expected to reduce full-year 2026 EPS by approximately $0.10, with the project still on track for in-service early 2027 and expected to generate $17 million of margin in 2027 | Chesapeake Utilities Q1 2026 earnings call | August 4, 2026 |
| Customer growth | Residential customer growth of 3.3% in Delmarva, 2.2% for Florida Public Utilities, and 2% for Florida City Gas in the first quarter of 2026 | Chesapeake Utilities Q1 2026 earnings call | August 4, 2026 |
| Short interest | 1.05 million shares short, 4.38% of shares outstanding and 4.43% of float, with 4.20 days to cover, up from 722,011 shares the prior month | StockAnalysis.com statistics short selling | August 4, 2026 |
This CPK AI stock analysis is an informational tool, not investment advice, an offer, or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Forecast ranges are scenarios based on available data and assumptions, can be wrong, and may change without notice. Verify current information and consider qualified professional advice before making an investment decision.
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