New Jersey Resources Corporation research snapshot
NJR AI stock analysis currently reads New Jersey Resources as a regulated natural gas utility with a growing clean energy investment portfolio. The core gas distribution business serves roughly 590,000 customers in New Jersey under a rate-regulated framework that provides earnings stability. At the August 3, 2026 data cutoff, NJR traded near $58.30 with verified market capitalization near $5.88 billion and a TTM P/E of 17.25. Management raised fiscal 2026 EPS guidance to $3.48 to $3.63 after a strong second quarter, while keeping a 7% to 9% long-term net financial earnings per share growth target. The analysis is constructive on rate base growth, dividend consistency, and clean energy expansion, but cautious on high leverage, negative free cash flow, interest rate sensitivity, and a valuation that sits above regulated utility peers after a roughly 27% year-to-date rally. Fiscal 2026 third quarter results were scheduled for release after the market close on the data cutoff date. This page is for informational use only and is not investment advice.
Current price
$58.30
Market cap
$5.88 billion verified and reported
AI score
68 / 100
Rating
Regulated gas utility with clean energy growth, a raised fiscal 2026 EPS outlook, premium valuation, high leverage, and a 30-year dividend growth record
Trend status
Bullish longer term but cooling: NJR hit a 52-week high of $60.86 in recent months, then pulled back to about $58.30, still above the 50-day and 200-day moving averages with RSI near 49 after a strong YTD rally
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | NJR distributes natural gas to roughly 590,000 regulated customers in New Jersey and invests in clean energy projects. The regulated monopoly structure provides stable cash flow, but the unregulated clean energy and energy services segments add earnings variability. | Medium-high |
| Moat | The primary moat is the regulated gas distribution franchise in New Jersey, which provides a legal monopoly over service territory. This is a durable but narrow moat because regulators cap allowed returns, and the unregulated businesses face competition. | Medium-high |
| Management | CEO Stephen D. Westhoven has led NJR since 2020 and previously served as CFO. Management raised fiscal 2026 EPS guidance twice this year and keeps a 7% to 9% long-term net financial EPS growth target, but the high debt level and negative free cash flow still raise questions about capital allocation discipline. | Medium |
| Financial trend | Revenue (ttm) is approximately $2.18 billion with net income of $341 million. TTM EPS of $3.38 supports a 3.26% dividend yield. Fiscal 2025 revenue grew 13.35% to $2.04 billion, and fiscal 2026 EPS guidance was raised to $3.48 to $3.63 after an adjusted EPS beat in the second quarter. | High |
| Valuation | At $58.30, NJR trades at 17.25x TTM P/E, 2.22x book value, 2.70x sales, and a 3.26% dividend yield. The forward P/E near 17x to 18x is above the regulated utility peer average near 15x to 16x, reflecting optimism about rate base growth and clean energy upside after a strong rally. | Medium |
| Technical trend | NJR is in a longer-term uptrend but is cooling after hitting a 52-week high of $60.86. The stock sits above its 50-day moving average near $56.87 and its 200-day moving average near $52.30, with RSI near 49 and a low beta of 0.52. | Medium |
| Risk level | Risk is medium. The regulated utility base provides stability, but debt at 142% of equity, negative free cash flow, interest rate sensitivity, weather-driven demand variability, and clean energy investment risk are material concerns. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | High for descriptive facts and audited calculations, medium for growth projections and relative valuation comparisons. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | Medium certainty. NJR offers a durable utility business and a 3.26% dividend with a long growth history, but the current valuation leaves a thin margin of safety given the balance sheet leverage, free cash flow deficit, and the strong run already priced in. | Medium |
NJR AI stock forecast
The NJR AI stock forecast uses scenario math around the $58.30 price, TTM EPS of $3.38, and a three-year framework that balances the 7% to 9% long-term EPS growth target against leverage and valuation risk. The audited model produced a bearish area near $37, a base area near $60, and a bullish area near $79, so the base case offers limited upside from the current price after the recent rally.
$74 to $82
More likely if NJR executes EPS growth near its 7% to 9% long-term target, clean energy investments earn regulated returns, interest rates decline, dividend growth continues, and the market values NJR near 19x forward earnings.
$56 to $63
More likely if NJR grows EPS near 4% to 5% annually through rate base expansion and customer growth, the dividend keeps growing at low single digits, and investors value the business near 15x to 16x forward earnings.
$34 to $40
More likely if interest rates stay elevated, natural gas demand weakens due to mild winters, clean energy investments disappoint, leverage stays high, or the market re-rates NJR closer to 11x earnings.
NJR AI technical analysis
NJR AI technical analysis is constructive but cooling as of the August 3, 2026 data cutoff. The stock hit a 52-week high of $60.86 and then pulled back to about $58.30. It remains above both its 50-day moving average near $56.87 and its 200-day moving average near $52.30, with RSI near 49, so the next direction depends on whether buyers defend the 50-day average or a deeper pullback unfolds.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $58.30 | StockAnalysis showed NJR at $58.30 in the August 3, 2026 morning session, used as the latest market snapshot for the page. |
| Near support | $56 to $57.50 | This area covers the 50-day moving average near $56.87 and the prior consolidation zone. Holding above it keeps the near-term uptrend intact. |
| Structural support | $52 to $53.50 | The 200-day moving average near $52.30 sits in this zone. A deeper pullback here would test whether the longer-term trend is pausing or reversing. |
| 50-day moving average | Near $56.87 | The 50-day MA has provided dynamic support during the YTD rally. A close below it would be the first sign of trend weakening. |
| 200-day moving average | Near $52.30 | The stock has traded above its 200-day MA throughout the current uptrend, confirming the longer-term bullish structure. |
| Near resistance | $60.86 | The 52-week high at $60.86 is the immediate resistance. A breakout above this level with volume would signal continuation toward analyst targets. |
| Major resistance | $62 to $64 | This zone represents the analyst consensus target area, with Wells Fargo and Argus near $63. Reaching it would require sustained buying and continued positive utility sector sentiment. |
| 52-week high | $60.86 | The 52-week high set in recent months is the current reference point and immediate resistance. |
| Momentum | RSI near 49 | RSI has cooled from overbought territory to about 49 after the pullback from the $60.86 high. This gives the stock room to rally again but shows momentum is no longer stretched. |
| Volume | Average volume near 518,000 to 653,000 shares | Breakouts above $60.86 carry more weight if volume expands significantly above the recent average. |
| Volatility | Beta near 0.52 | NJR has very low market correlation, typical for regulated utilities. It tends to hold up better in market selloffs but may lag during strong risk-on rallies. |
| Invalidation | Close below $52 | A decisive close below $52, the 200-day moving average area, would weaken the current bullish technical framework and shift attention to the $48 to $50 support zone. |
NJR AI trading strategy
The NJR AI trading strategy is a rules-based framework for monitoring a regulated gas utility with clean energy exposure. It is not personalized advice and should be paired with live price data, rate case updates, interest rate trends, earnings reports, and dividend announcements.
Watch for NJR to hold above $56 to $57.50, then break above the $60.86 52-week high on above-average volume. Confirmation should include positive utility sector sentiment, stable or falling interest rates, and no negative regulatory surprises.
A failed breakout above $60.86 followed by a close below $56.87 should reduce confidence in continuation and suggest profit-taking is underway.
NJR offers a 3.26% dividend yield with over 30 years of consecutive dividend growth. For income-oriented approaches, track the ex-dividend date (last was June 10, 2026) and assess whether the payout ratio near 56% of TTM EPS supports continued growth.
Do not chase the stock solely for the dividend. Ensure the yield adequately compensates for leverage, free cash flow risk, and the P/E premium to utility peers.
Track quarterly EPS vs. consensus, rate base growth, customer additions, NJBPU regulatory decisions, clean energy project returns, total debt, cash position, dividend announcements, and interest rate trends. Fiscal 2026 third quarter results were scheduled for release on August 3, 2026, after the market close.
Reduce confidence if leverage continues rising, free cash flow remains deeply negative, dividend growth is suspended or slowed meaningfully, or regulatory outcomes turn unfavorable.
Investment research summary
NJR distributes natural gas to roughly 590,000 regulated customers in central and coastal New Jersey and invests in clean energy projects. Customers pay because natural gas is a necessary heating and cooking fuel with no alternative distribution infrastructure in the service territory.
The primary moat is the regulated gas distribution franchise, a legal monopoly in its New Jersey service territory. This is durable but narrow because regulators control allowed returns, and the unregulated clean energy and energy services businesses face market competition.
The thesis fails if interest rates stay elevated, compressing the spread between regulated returns and financing costs; if mild winters reduce gas demand and earnings; if clean energy investments underperform or face regulatory pushback; or if NJR needs to issue equity to fund its investment plan at unfavorable prices. Buying after a roughly 27% YTD rally also raises the risk of paying up near the top of the move.
CEO Stephen D. Westhoven has led NJR since 2020 with a background as CFO. Management raised fiscal 2026 EPS guidance twice this year and keeps a 7% to 9% long-term net financial EPS growth target. Key judgment areas include balance sheet leverage, free cash flow improvement, and the pace of clean energy investment.
NJR benefits from steady demand for natural gas distribution in its regulated service territory and growth in clean energy investment. However, the utility sector faces headwinds from rising interest rates, policy uncertainty around natural gas, and the long-term energy transition away from fossil fuels, even as data center demand strains grid equipment supply.
At $58.30, NJR trades at 17.25x TTM earnings and a 3.26% dividend yield. This P/E is above the regulated gas utility peer average of approximately 15x to 16x. The three-year base case scenario near $60 sits close to the current price, leaving a thin margin of safety at best.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| NJR price | $58.30 in the August 3, 2026 morning session | StockAnalysis real-time quote | August 3, 2026 |
| Market capitalization | $5.884 billion verified as $58.30 x 100,920,000 shares, matching reported market cap within 0.06% | financial_rigor.py market-cap verification | August 3, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding | Approximately 100.92 million common shares | StockAnalysis share statistics | August 3, 2026 |
| Revenue (ttm) | $2.18 billion | StockAnalysis and Yahoo Finance statistics | August 3, 2026 |
| Net income (ttm) | $341.42 million | StockAnalysis and Yahoo Finance statistics | August 3, 2026 |
| EPS (ttm) | $3.38 | StockAnalysis statistics | August 3, 2026 |
| Cash and equivalents | $125.28 million as of most recent quarter | StockAnalysis balance sheet | August 3, 2026 |
| Total debt / equity | 142.14% | Yahoo Finance statistics and StockAnalysis | August 3, 2026 |
| Dividend yield | 3.26% ($1.90 annual dividend per share) with 30 consecutive years of dividend growth and a payout ratio near 56% | StockAnalysis statistics | August 3, 2026 |
| Valuation math | 17.25x TTM PE, 2.22x PB, 2.70x PS, negative 1.89% FCF yield, and 3.26% dividend yield from financial_rigor.py | financial_rigor.py valuation verification | August 3, 2026 |
| Three-year scenario model | Bear $37.2, base $59.8, bull $78.7 using $3.38 TTM EPS, 0% to 7% growth, and 11x to 19x terminal PE | financial_rigor.py three-scenario model | August 3, 2026 |
| Technical trend | 52-week high $60.86, 50-day MA near $56.87, 200-day MA near $52.30, RSI near 49, beta 0.52, average volume 518,000 to 653,000 shares | StockAnalysis statistics | August 3, 2026 |
| Analyst consensus | Average target $60.43 (range $53 to $64) from 8 analysts, Buy consensus. Wells Fargo initiated Overweight with a $63 target, Mizuho raised to $61, and Argus to $63 | StockAnalysis and Yahoo Finance analyst data | August 3, 2026 |
| Q2 FY2026 results | Revenue $939.4M, adjusted EPS $2.20 vs. $1.90 consensus, fiscal 2026 EPS guidance raised to $3.48 to $3.63 | StockAnalysis news and Yahoo Finance earnings | August 3, 2026 |
This NJR AI stock analysis is an informational research tool, not investment advice, tax advice, legal advice, or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Forecast ranges are scenarios based on available data as of August 3, 2026 and may be wrong. Always verify live prices, filings, risk factors, and your own constraints before making financial decisions.
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