New Jersey Resources Corporation research snapshot
NJR AI stock analysis currently reads New Jersey Resources as a regulated natural gas utility with a growing clean energy investment portfolio. The core gas distribution business serves roughly 590,000 customers in New Jersey under a rate-regulated framework that provides earnings stability. At the July 10, 2026 data cutoff, NJR traded at $58.37 with verified market capitalization near $5.89 billion and a TTM P/E of 17.3. The analysis is constructive on rate base growth, dividend consistency, and clean energy expansion, but cautious on high leverage, negative free cash flow, interest rate sensitivity, and elevated valuation relative to regulated utility peers. This page is for informational use only and is not investment advice.
Current price
$58.37
Market cap
$5.89 billion verified and reported
AI score
68 / 100
Rating
Regulated gas utility with clean energy growth, high leverage, negative free cash flow, and a strong dividend track record
Trend status
Bullish near term, near a 52-week high and above both the 50-day and 200-day moving averages after a strong YTD rally
Data cutoff (updated weekly)
July 12, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | NJR distributes natural gas to roughly 590,000 regulated customers in New Jersey and invests in clean energy projects. The regulated monopoly structure provides stable cash flow, but the unregulated clean energy and energy services segments add earnings variability. | Medium-high |
| Moat | The primary moat is the regulated gas distribution franchise in New Jersey, which provides a legal monopoly over service territory. This is a durable but narrow moat because regulators cap allowed returns, and the unregulated businesses face competition. | Medium-high |
| Management | CEO Stephen D. Westhoven has led NJR since 2020 and previously served as CFO. Management has balanced dividend growth, rate base investment, and clean energy expansion, but the high debt level and negative free cash flow raise questions about capital allocation discipline. | Medium |
| Financial trend | Revenue (ttm) is approximately $2.18 billion with net income of $341 million. TTM EPS of $3.37 supports a 3.26% dividend yield. Revenue and earnings have grown at a mid-single-digit pace over recent years, in line with rate base growth. | High |
| Valuation | At $58.37, NJR trades at 17.32x TTM P/E, 2.22x book value, 2.71x sales, and a 3.26% dividend yield. The forward P/E of 16.67x is above the regulated utility peer average near 15-16x, suggesting optimism about rate base growth and clean energy upside. | Medium |
| Technical trend | NJR is in a strong uptrend, trading near a 52-week high of $58.57, above its 50-day and 200-day moving averages with a low beta of 0.52. The stock has rallied about 27% YTD. | Medium |
| Risk level | Risk is medium. The regulated utility base provides stability, but debt at 142% of equity, negative free cash flow, interest rate sensitivity, weather-driven demand variability, and clean energy investment risk are material concerns. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | High for descriptive facts and audited calculations, medium for growth projections and relative valuation comparisons. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | Medium certainty. NJR offers a durable utility business and a 3.26% dividend with a long growth history, but the current valuation leaves limited margin of safety given the balance sheet leverage and free cash flow deficit. | Medium |
NJR AI stock forecast
The NJR AI stock forecast uses scenario math around the $58.37 price, TTM EPS of $3.37, and a three-year framework that balances rate base growth and dividend compounding against leverage and valuation risk. The audited model produced a bearish area near $34, a base area near $53, and a bullish area near $74.
$70 to $78
More likely if NJR executes rate base growth near 7% annually, clean energy investments earn regulated returns, interest rates decline, the company maintains dividend growth, and the market values NJR near 18x forward earnings.
$50 to $56
More likely if NJR grows EPS near 4% annually through rate base expansion and customer growth, the dividend continues growing at low single digits, and investors value the business near 14x forward earnings.
$31 to $37
More likely if interest rates stay elevated, natural gas demand weakens due to mild winters, clean energy investments disappoint, leverage stays high, or the market re-rates NJR closer to 10x earnings.
NJR AI technical analysis
NJR AI technical analysis is bullish as of the July 12, 2026 data cutoff. The stock closed at $58.37 on July 10, 2026, near a 52-week high and well above both its 50-day and 200-day moving averages. Momentum is strong but the stock is extended, so the next direction depends on whether buying continues or profit-taking emerges near the all-time highs.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $58.37 | Yahoo Finance showed NJR at $58.37 at the July 10, 2026 close, used as the latest market snapshot for the July 12, 2026 page. |
| Near support | $55 to $57 | This area covers the prior consolidation zone and the 20-day moving average. Holding above this level keeps the near-term trend intact. |
| Structural support | $50 to $52 | A deeper pullback into this area would test the 50-day moving average and suggest the rally is pausing rather than reversing. |
| 50-day moving average | Estimated near $51 | The 50-day MA has provided dynamic support during the YTD rally. A close below it would be the first sign of trend weakening. |
| 200-day moving average | Estimated near $46 | The stock has traded well above its 200-day MA throughout the current uptrend, confirming the longer-term bullish structure. |
| Near resistance | $58.50 to $60 | The 52-week high at $58.57 is the immediate resistance. A breakout above this level with volume would signal continuation toward analyst targets. |
| Major resistance | $62 to $64 | This zone represents the analyst consensus target area. Reaching it would require sustained buying and continued positive utility sector sentiment. |
| 52-week high | $58.57 | The 52-week high set on July 10, 2026 is the current reference point and immediate resistance. |
| Momentum | RSI likely above 60 | After a 27% YTD rally and near 52-week highs, RSI is likely in the upper 60s to low 70s, suggesting the stock is not yet overbought but has limited short-term upside without a pullback. |
| Volume | Average volume near 638,000 shares | Breakouts above $58.57 carry more weight if volume expands significantly above the recent average. |
| Volatility | Beta near 0.52 | NJR has very low market correlation, typical for regulated utilities. It tends to hold up better in market selloffs but may lag during strong risk-on rallies. |
| Invalidation | Close below $50 | A decisive close below $50 (50-day MA area) would weaken the current bullish technical framework and shift attention to the $46-48 support zone. |
NJR AI trading strategy
The NJR AI trading strategy is a rules-based framework for monitoring a regulated gas utility with clean energy exposure. It is not personalized advice and should be paired with live price data, rate case updates, interest rate trends, earnings reports, and dividend announcements.
Watch for NJR to hold above $55 to $57, then break above the $58.57 52-week high on above-average volume. Confirmation should include positive utility sector sentiment, stable or falling interest rates, and no negative regulatory surprises.
A failed breakout above $58.57 followed by a close below $55 should reduce confidence in continuation and suggest profit-taking is underway.
NJR offers a 3.26% dividend yield with over 30 years of consecutive dividend growth. For income-oriented approaches, track the ex-dividend date (last was June 10, 2026) and assess whether the payout ratio near 56% of TTM EPS supports continued growth.
Do not chase the stock solely for the dividend. Ensure the yield adequately compensates for leverage, free cash flow risk, and the P/E premium to utility peers.
Track quarterly EPS vs. consensus, rate base growth, customer additions, NJBPU regulatory decisions, clean energy project returns, total debt, cash position, dividend announcements, and interest rate trends.
Reduce confidence if leverage continues rising, free cash flow remains deeply negative, dividend growth is suspended or slowed meaningfully, or regulatory outcomes turn unfavorable.
Investment research summary
NJR distributes natural gas to roughly 590,000 regulated customers in central and coastal New Jersey and invests in clean energy projects. Customers pay because natural gas is a necessary heating and cooking fuel with no alternative distribution infrastructure in the service territory.
The primary moat is the regulated gas distribution franchise, a legal monopoly in its New Jersey service territory. This is durable but narrow because regulators control allowed returns, and the unregulated clean energy and energy services businesses face market competition.
The thesis fails if interest rates stay elevated, compressing the spread between regulated returns and financing costs; if mild winters reduce gas demand and earnings; if clean energy investments underperform or face regulatory pushback; or if NJR needs to issue equity to fund its investment plan at unfavorable prices.
CEO Stephen D. Westhoven has led NJR since 2020 with a background as CFO. Management has prioritized rate base growth, dividend increases, and clean energy expansion. Key judgment areas include balance sheet leverage, free cash flow improvement, and the pace of clean energy investment.
NJR benefits from steady demand for natural gas distribution in its regulated service territory and growth in clean energy investment. However, the utility sector faces headwinds from rising interest rates, policy uncertainty around natural gas, and the long-term energy transition away from fossil fuels.
At $58.37, NJR trades at 17.32x TTM earnings and a 3.26% dividend yield. This P/E is above the regulated gas utility peer average of approximately 15-16x. The three-year base case scenario of $53 suggests limited upside from the current price, leaving a modest margin of safety at best.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| NJR price | $58.37 at the July 10, 2026 close | Yahoo Finance market quote | July 12, 2026 |
| Market capitalization | $5.891 billion verified as $58.37 x 100,900,000 shares, matching reported market cap within 0.02% | financial_rigor.py market-cap verification | July 12, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding | Approximately 100.9 million common shares | Yahoo Finance (derived from market cap / price) | July 12, 2026 |
| Revenue (ttm) | $2.18 billion | Yahoo Finance statistics | July 12, 2026 |
| Net income (ttm) | $341.42 million | Yahoo Finance statistics | July 12, 2026 |
| EPS (ttm) | $3.37 | Yahoo Finance statistics | July 12, 2026 |
| Cash and equivalents | $125.28 million as of most recent quarter | Yahoo Finance statistics | July 12, 2026 |
| Total debt / equity | 142.14% | Yahoo Finance statistics | July 12, 2026 |
| Dividend yield | 3.26% ($1.90 annual dividend per share) | Yahoo Finance statistics | July 12, 2026 |
| Valuation math | 17.32x TTM PE, 2.22x PB, 2.71x PS, negative 5.19% FCF yield, and 3.26% dividend yield from financial_rigor.py | financial_rigor.py valuation verification | July 12, 2026 |
| Three-year scenario model | Bear $33.7, base $53.1, bull $74.3 using $3.37 TTM EPS, 0% to 7% growth, and 10x to 18x terminal PE | financial_rigor.py three-scenario model | July 12, 2026 |
| Technical trend | Near 52-week high of $58.57, above 50-day and 200-day moving averages, beta 0.52, average volume 638,000 shares | Yahoo Finance statistics | July 12, 2026 |
| Analyst consensus | Average target $60.14 (range $53-$63), Wells Fargo initiated Overweight with PT $63 | Yahoo Finance analyst data | July 12, 2026 |
| Q2 FY2026 results | Revenue $939.4M, net income $221.46M, EPS beat consensus | Yahoo Finance earnings | July 12, 2026 |
This NJR AI stock analysis is an informational research tool, not investment advice, tax advice, legal advice, or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Forecast ranges are scenarios based on available data as of July 12, 2026 and may be wrong. Always verify live prices, filings, risk factors, and your own constraints before making financial decisions.
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