UGI Corporation research snapshot
UGI AI stock analysis currently reads UGI Corporation as a diversified energy distributor with regulated utility assets, midstream and marketing operations, international LPG and AmeriGas propane exposure. At the August 3, 2026 data cutoff, UGI closed at $36.12 on July 31, 2026 with a verified market capitalization near $7.74 billion. The investment case rests on regulated rate-base growth, an improving balance sheet with net leverage at 3.7x, a long dividend record, a $470 million electric division sale, and a new data center partnership in Pennsylvania. The countercase is the reduced fiscal 2026 adjusted EPS guidance of $2.75 to $2.90, weather and commodity sensitivity, regulatory execution, and the risk that AmeriGas or international LPG earnings remain uneven. This page uses scenario ranges and source checks, not a certain stock price prediction, and is for informational use only.
Current price
$36.12
Market cap
$7.74 billion
AI score
62 / 100
Rating
Stabilizing income and infrastructure platform with reduced leverage and visible growth optionality
Trend status
Above the 50-day and 100-day averages near $35.37 to $35.72 but below the 20-day and 200-day averages near $36.30 to $36.36, with a 4.15% indicated dividend yield
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | UGI combines regulated natural gas and electric utilities with midstream and energy marketing, international LPG, and U.S. propane distribution. Customers pay for essential delivery, storage, and fuel services across recurring local networks. | Medium-high |
| Moat | The strongest moat is local utility territory, physical infrastructure, regulatory familiarity, customer relationships, and operating scale. LPG and energy marketing have less structural protection and face more price competition. | Medium |
| Management | CEO Bob Flexon has led since November 2024. Q2 FY2026 execution included leverage below the fiscal 2026 target at 3.7x, a definitive agreement to sell the electric division for about $470 million, a Prime Data Centers natural gas partnership, and continued AmeriGas operational improvements. | Medium |
| Financial trend | FY2025 revenue was $7.287 billion and GAAP net income was $678 million with adjusted diluted EPS of $3.32. Q2 FY2026 year-to-date adjusted diluted EPS was $3.35 versus $3.58 in the prior year, and fiscal 2026 adjusted EPS guidance was reduced to $2.75 to $2.90. | High |
| Valuation | At $36.12, UGI traded near 12.5x TTM GAAP EPS, 1.43x book value, 32.5x TTM free cash flow per share, and a 4.15% indicated dividend yield. The modest P/E is partly explained by a mixed business and the uncertain FY2026 earnings path, while analysts carry a $43 average price target. | Medium-high |
| Technical trend | UGI closed above the 50-day and 100-day averages but below the 20-day and 200-day averages. RSI near 50 was neutral and ADX around 28 suggested a developing rather than confirmed trend. A durable uptrend needs a close above the $36.30 to $36.36 zone with stronger participation. | Medium |
| Risk level | Main risks include leverage and refinancing, delayed utility cost recovery, weather, commodity and collateral volatility, propane demand, European energy and currency exposure, legal claims, cyber events, and execution of the electric sale and portfolio shift. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | High for descriptive facts and audited calculations, medium for forward scenarios and chart levels. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | Medium certainty. This page provides a monitoring and valuation framework, not a buy or sell instruction. | Medium |
UGI AI stock forecast
The UGI AI stock forecast uses scenario math around the $36.12 quote and the $2.83 consensus estimate for fiscal 2026 adjusted EPS, which sits near the $2.75 to $2.90 guidance midpoint. The audited three-year framework produced a bullish area near $52.0, a base area near $37.1, and a bearish area near $21.8 before dividends. These are conditional model outputs, not promises.
$48 to $54
More likely if Utilities and rate-base investment deliver steady growth, the electric division sale closes and lowers complexity, AmeriGas keeps improving, UGI holds net leverage near or below 3.7x, FY2026 guidance stabilizes, and the market supports a 15x earnings multiple.
$34 to $40
More likely if adjusted EPS stabilizes near the fiscal 2026 guidance midpoint of about $2.82, regulated earnings grow while LPG remains mixed, debt costs stay manageable, and the market values the group near 12x earnings.
$20 to $24
More likely if the EPS reset extends, rate recovery lags, interest costs rise, propane or international margins weaken, collateral needs increase, refinancing becomes expensive, the electric sale faces delays, or the valuation falls toward 9x earnings.
UGI AI technical analysis
UGI AI technical analysis is mixed at the August 3, 2026 data cutoff. UGI closed at $36.12 on July 31, 2026, above the 50-day average near $35.37 and the 100-day average near $35.72, but below the 20-day average near $36.36 and the 200-day average near $36.30. RSI(14) was near 50.36 and ADX(14) near 28.42 with +DI of 20.91 slightly above -DI of 19.49, while July 31 volume of about 1.77 million shares ran above the 20-day average near 1.22 million. The moving-average and momentum figures are technical snapshots rather than a live signal.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $36.12 | StockAnalysis reported the July 31, 2026 close and a same-day range of $35.66 to $36.36. |
| Near support | $34.50 to $35.40 | The 50-day average near $35.37 and the early July consolidation around $34.26 to $34.52 sit just below the current price. Holding this zone keeps the recovery framework intact. |
| 20-day moving average | $36.36 | Latest accessible Barchart technical snapshot. A close above this level would be an initial trend improvement, not a complete breakout. |
| 50-day moving average | $35.37 | Latest accessible Barchart technical snapshot. The price is above this average, which is supportive for the short-term setup. |
| 100-day moving average | $35.72 | Latest accessible Barchart technical snapshot. The price cleared this average in July and is holding above it. |
| 200-day moving average | $36.30 | Latest accessible Barchart technical snapshot. Reclaiming and holding this area would improve the medium-term chart structure. |
| Momentum | RSI 50.36; ADX 28.42 (+DI 20.91 / -DI 19.49) | Latest accessible Barchart snapshot suggests neutral momentum with a developing rather than confirmed trend. A same-day RSI reading was not independently verified at the cutoff. |
| Volume | 1.77 million on July 31 versus about 1.22 million 20-day average | The July move was supported by higher volume than the 20-day average, but a breakout would still need follow-through from later sessions. |
| Major resistance | $37.53 to $41.34 | StockAnalysis reported the 52-week high at $41.34, with July highs near $37.53 to $37.62 as the first resistance above the moving averages. |
| Invalidation | Close below $33.51 | A decisive close below the June 22 low of about $33.51 would break the July recovery framework and raise downside risk toward the 52-week low near $31.62. |
UGI AI trading strategy
The UGI AI trading strategy is a rules-based framework for a high-yield energy group with regulated and cyclical segments. It is not personal advice. Any implementation should use live chart data, the August 5 fiscal 2026 Q3 report, rate-case updates, leverage, commodity conditions, position sizing, and a defined invalidation level.
Watch for UGI to reclaim and hold the $36.30 to $36.36 moving-average band with volume near or above its recent average. Confirmation should include stable FY2026 guidance, no deterioration in liquidity, and improving Utilities, Midstream, or AmeriGas earnings.
A failed reclaim followed by a close below $35.37 would weaken the short-term setup. A close below $33.51 would invalidate the broader recovery thesis.
If UGI revisits $34.50 to $35.40 without a new guidance cut, compare the dividend yield, net leverage, regulated rate recovery, propane margins, and free cash flow before assuming the price zone is durable support.
Do not treat the dividend as a floor. Reassess if debt costs, cash collateral, legal obligations, or regulated cash recovery pressure the parent company.
Track the August 5 fiscal 2026 Q3 report and the August 6 conference call, adjusted EPS guidance, segment EBIT, rate-case outcomes, the electric division sale timeline, capital spending, debt maturities, available liquidity, AmeriGas execution, European LPG demand, and dividend coverage.
Reduce confidence if the growth plan requires more leverage or share issuance while adjusted EPS remains below the FY2025 level of $3.32.
Investment research summary
UGI sells essential energy delivery and distribution services. Utilities earns regulated returns on local gas and electric infrastructure, while the other segments monetize midstream assets, energy marketing, international LPG, and U.S. propane distribution. Customers pay for reliability, access, storage, and fuel availability.
The durable moat is concentrated in regulated utility franchises, physical networks, customer connections, safety and compliance know-how, and local rate-making relationships. Midstream scale adds useful assets. LPG distribution has customer relationships and logistics scale, but switching costs and pricing power are weaker.
The thesis fails if UGI cannot recover costs in rate cases, leverage makes refinancing expensive, weather or commodity volatility raises collateral needs, AmeriGas remains structurally weak, international LPG earnings fall with demand or currency, the electric division sale stalls, or legal and operational events consume capital.
CEO Bob Flexon started in November 2024. Management has delivered leverage below the fiscal 2026 target, an electric division sale for about $470 million, a Pennsylvania data center partnership, and AmeriGas operational improvements. Management quality should be judged by per-share earnings, leverage discipline, rate-case execution, and whether AmeriGas gains persist.
UGI participates in long-lived energy infrastructure renewal, regional gas demand, and potential Pennsylvania power and data-center growth, most visibly through the Prime Data Centers partnership. The opposing forces are electrification policy, efficiency gains, weather variability, commodity cycles, and the cost of financing new infrastructure.
At $36.12, the 12.5x TTM P/E and 4.15% dividend yield look less demanding than many regulated utilities, but the mixed portfolio and the FY2026 guidance reduction explain part of the discount. A stronger margin of safety would require stable adjusted EPS, lower leverage, reliable cash generation, and price support that holds after the earnings reset.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| UGI share price | $36.12 close on July 31, 2026 | StockAnalysis quote snapshot | August 3, 2026 |
| Market capitalization | $7.74 billion, verified as $36.12 x 214.39 million shares | StockAnalysis and financial_rigor.py | August 3, 2026 |
| FY2025 revenue and net income | $7.287 billion revenue and $678 million GAAP net income, consistent across the SEC 10-K, the earnings release, and StockAnalysis | UGI FY2025 10-K | August 3, 2026 |
| FY2025 EPS | $3.09 diluted EPS and $3.32 adjusted diluted EPS for fiscal 2025 | UGI FY2025 10-K | August 3, 2026 |
| Q2 FY2026 results | Q2 revenue $2,685 million and GAAP diluted EPS $2.33; year-to-date revenue $4,768 million, net income $817 million, GAAP diluted EPS $3.68, and adjusted diluted EPS $3.35 | UGI Q2 FY2026 earnings release (8-K Exhibit 99.1) | August 3, 2026 |
| FY2026 adjusted EPS guidance | $2.75 to $2.90 per share, updated May 6, 2026 | UGI Q2 FY2026 earnings release (8-K Exhibit 99.1) | August 3, 2026 |
| Cash, debt and leverage | $494 million cash plus $36 million restricted cash, $7,041 million total debt as of March 31, 2026, net leverage of 3.7x, and available liquidity of about $2.1 billion | UGI Q2 FY2026 10-Q and earnings release | August 3, 2026 |
| Dividend and TTM valuation | $1.50 annual dividend, 4.15% indicated yield, 12.50x P/E, 1.43x P/B, 1.05x P/S, and 32.54x P/FCF | StockAnalysis statistics and financial_rigor.py | August 3, 2026 |
| Analyst consensus | Buy consensus with a $43 average price target, range $40 to $45, from 3 analysts; Wells Fargo at $45 and Jefferies at $40 | StockAnalysis forecast (S&P Global and TipRanks data) | August 3, 2026 |
| Technical snapshot | 20-day MA $36.36, 50-day MA $35.37, 100-day MA $35.72, 200-day MA $36.30, RSI(14) 50.36, and ADX(14) 28.42 | Barchart technical analysis snapshot | August 3, 2026 |
This UGI AI stock analysis is an informational research tool, not investment advice, financial advice, or a recommendation to buy or sell securities. Forecast ranges are scenario outputs based on available data and stated assumptions. They may be wrong, and technical levels can become stale after new price, earnings, regulatory, or market information. UGI reports fiscal 2026 third-quarter results on August 5, 2026, which can change this analysis.
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