UGI Corporation research snapshot
UGI AI stock analysis currently reads UGI Corporation as a diversified energy distributor with regulated utility assets, midstream operations, international LPG and AmeriGas propane exposure. At the July 10, 2026 data cutoff, UGI closed near $35.84 with a verified market capitalization near $7.68 billion. The investment case rests on regulated rate-base growth, essential energy demand, a long dividend record, and a planned shift toward natural gas infrastructure. The countercase is the lower fiscal 2026 adjusted EPS guidance of $2.75 to $2.90, high debt, weather and commodity sensitivity, regulatory execution, and the risk that AmeriGas or international LPG earnings remain uneven. This page uses scenario ranges and source checks, not a certain stock price prediction, and is for informational use only.
Current price
$35.84
Market cap
$7.68 billion
AI score
61 / 100
Rating
Income-oriented energy platform, earnings reset and leverage require monitoring
Trend status
Below the 50-day and 200-day averages after a May earnings gap, with a 4.2% indicated dividend yield
Data cutoff (updated weekly)
July 10, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | UGI combines regulated natural gas and electric utilities with midstream and energy marketing, international LPG, and U.S. propane distribution. Customers pay for essential delivery, storage, and fuel services across recurring local networks. | Medium-high |
| Moat | The strongest moat is local utility territory, physical infrastructure, regulatory familiarity, customer relationships, and operating scale. LPG and energy marketing have less structural protection and face more price competition. | Medium |
| Management | CEO Robert Flexon has led since November 2024. Management is prioritizing regulated natural gas investment, AmeriGas improvement, capital discipline, and a FY2026 to FY2029 plan with about $4.5 billion to $4.9 billion of capital spending. | Medium |
| Financial trend | FY2025 revenue was $7.287 billion and GAAP net income was $678 million. Q2 FY2026 year-to-date diluted EPS was $3.68 GAAP and $3.35 adjusted, but full-year adjusted EPS guidance was reduced to $2.75 to $2.90. | High |
| Valuation | At $35.84, UGI traded near 12.4x TTM GAAP EPS, 1.42x book value, 32.3x TTM free cash flow per share, and a 4.19% indicated dividend yield. The low P/E is partly explained by a mixed business and uncertain FY2026 earnings path. | Medium-high |
| Technical trend | The price was slightly below the latest accessible 50-day and 200-day moving averages, while recent volume was below its 50-day average. The chart is not a confirmed uptrend until UGI reclaims the $35.95 to $36.90 area with stronger participation. | Medium |
| Risk level | Main risks include leverage and refinancing, delayed utility cost recovery, weather, commodity and collateral volatility, propane demand, European energy and currency exposure, legal claims, cyber events, and execution of the portfolio shift. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | High for descriptive facts and audited calculations, medium for forward scenarios and chart levels. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | Medium certainty. This page provides a monitoring and valuation framework, not a buy or sell instruction. | Medium |
UGI AI stock forecast
The UGI AI stock forecast uses scenario math around the $35.84 quote and the $2.825 midpoint of FY2026 adjusted EPS guidance. The audited three-year framework produced a bullish area near $51.9, a base area near $37.0, and a bearish area near $21.8 before dividends. These are conditional model outputs, not promises.
$48 to $54
More likely if Utilities and rate-base investment deliver steady growth, AmeriGas continues its operational recovery, UGI keeps net leverage under control, FY2026 earnings stop falling, and the market supports a 15x earnings multiple.
$34 to $40
More likely if adjusted EPS stabilizes around the FY2026 guidance midpoint, regulated earnings grow while LPG remains mixed, debt costs stay manageable, and the market values the group near 12x earnings.
$20 to $24
More likely if the EPS reset extends, rate recovery lags, interest costs rise, propane or international margins weaken, collateral needs increase, refinancing becomes expensive, or the valuation falls toward 9x earnings.
UGI AI technical analysis
UGI AI technical analysis is neutral-to-soft at the July 10, 2026 data cutoff. UGI closed at $35.84, close to the latest accessible 50-day average near $35.92 and 200-day average near $35.95, but below the 100-day average near $36.90. The latest accessible technical snapshot showed relative strength near 45 and ADX14 near 23, while July 10 volume was about 1.09 million shares versus a reported 50-day average near 1.87 million. The moving-average and momentum figures are technical snapshots rather than a live signal.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $35.84 | StockAnalysis reported the July 10, 2026 close and a same-day range of $35.74 to $36.38. |
| Near support | $34.20 to $34.50 | This zone captures several June closing lows and the recent consolidation area. Holding it would keep a short-term mean-reversion setup alive. |
| 50-day moving average | $35.92 | Latest accessible Barchart technical snapshot. A close above this level would be an initial trend improvement, not a complete breakout. |
| 200-day moving average | $35.95 | Latest accessible Barchart technical snapshot. Reclaiming and holding this area would improve the medium-term chart structure. |
| 100-day moving average | $36.90 | Latest accessible Barchart technical snapshot. This is the next resistance area above the 50-day and 200-day averages. |
| Momentum | Relative strength 45.3; ADX14 23.37 | Latest accessible Barchart snapshot suggests neutral-to-soft momentum and a trend that is not yet strong. A same-day RSI was not independently verified at the cutoff. |
| Volume | 1.09 million on July 10 versus about 1.87 million 50-day average | The close was not accompanied by unusually strong volume, so a breakout signal would need confirmation from later sessions. |
| Major resistance | $41.34 | StockAnalysis reported the 52-week high at $41.34. It is a distant resistance reference after the May earnings gap. |
| Invalidation | Close below $31.65 | A decisive close below the May 7 intraday low would invalidate the current range-recovery framework and raise downside risk. |
UGI AI trading strategy
The UGI AI trading strategy is a rules-based framework for a high-yield energy group with regulated and cyclical segments. It is not personal advice. Any implementation should use live chart data, earnings releases, rate-case updates, leverage, commodity conditions, position sizing, and a defined invalidation level.
Watch for UGI to reclaim the $35.92 to $36.90 moving-average band with volume above its recent average. Confirmation should include stable FY2026 guidance, no deterioration in liquidity, and improving Utilities or AmeriGas earnings.
A failed reclaim followed by a close below $34.20 would weaken the short-term setup. A close below $31.65 would invalidate the broader recovery thesis.
If UGI revisits $34.20 to $34.50 without a new guidance cut, compare the dividend yield, net leverage, regulated rate recovery, propane margins, and free cash flow before assuming the price zone is durable support.
Do not treat the dividend as a floor. Reassess if debt costs, cash collateral, legal obligations, or regulated cash recovery pressure the parent company.
Track the August 6 FY2026 Q3 report, adjusted EPS guidance, segment EBIT, rate-case outcomes, capital spending, debt maturities, available liquidity, AmeriGas execution, European LPG demand, and dividend coverage.
Reduce confidence if the growth plan requires more leverage or share issuance while adjusted EPS remains below the FY2025 level of $3.32.
Investment research summary
UGI sells essential energy delivery and distribution services. Utilities earns regulated returns on local gas and electric infrastructure, while the other segments monetize midstream assets, energy marketing, international LPG, and U.S. propane distribution. Customers pay for reliability, access, storage, and fuel availability.
The durable moat is concentrated in regulated utility franchises, physical networks, customer connections, safety and compliance know-how, and local rate-making relationships. Midstream scale adds useful assets. LPG distribution has customer relationships and logistics scale, but switching costs and pricing power are weaker.
The thesis fails if UGI cannot recover costs in rate cases, leverage makes refinancing expensive, weather or commodity volatility raises collateral needs, AmeriGas remains structurally weak, international LPG earnings fall with demand or currency, or legal and operational events consume capital.
CEO Robert Flexon started in November 2024. The proxy shows executive ownership and retention requirements, while the capital plan directs most growth spending toward regulated natural gas businesses. Management quality should be judged by per-share earnings, leverage reduction, rate-case execution, and whether AmeriGas improvements persist.
UGI participates in long-lived energy infrastructure renewal, regional gas demand, and potential Pennsylvania power and data-center growth. The opposing forces are electrification policy, efficiency gains, weather variability, commodity cycles, and the cost of financing new infrastructure.
At $35.84, the headline 12.4x TTM P/E and 4.19% dividend yield look less demanding than many regulated utilities, but the mixed portfolio and FY2026 guidance reduction explain part of the discount. A stronger margin of safety would require stable adjusted EPS, lower leverage, reliable cash generation, and price support that holds after the earnings reset.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| UGI share price | $35.84 close on July 10, 2026 | StockAnalysis quote snapshot | July 10, 2026 |
| Market capitalization | $7.68 billion, verified as $35.84 x 214.39 million shares | StockAnalysis and financial_rigor.py | July 10, 2026 |
| FY2025 revenue | $7.287 billion; consistent across the SEC 10-K, Macrotrends, and StockAnalysis | UGI FY2025 10-K | July 10, 2026 |
| FY2025 net income and EPS | $678 million GAAP net income, $3.09 diluted EPS, and $3.32 adjusted diluted EPS | UGI FY2025 earnings release | July 10, 2026 |
| Q2 FY2026 results | $4.768 billion YTD revenue, $817 million net income, and $3.35 YTD adjusted diluted EPS | UGI Q2 FY2026 Form 10-Q | July 10, 2026 |
| FY2026 adjusted EPS guidance | $2.75 to $2.90 per share, updated May 6, 2026 | UGI Q2 FY2026 earnings release | July 10, 2026 |
| Cash and debt | $494 million cash and $7.041 billion total debt as of March 31, 2026; StockAnalysis reports $530 million cash, a 3.52% difference | UGI Q2 FY2026 10-Q and StockAnalysis balance sheet | July 10, 2026 |
| Dividend and TTM valuation | $1.50 annual dividend, 4.19% indicated yield, 12.40x P/E, 1.42x P/B, and 3.10% FCF yield | StockAnalysis statistics and financial_rigor.py | July 10, 2026 |
| Technical snapshot | 50-day MA $35.92, 100-day MA $36.90, 200-day MA $35.95, relative strength 45.3, and ADX14 23.37 | Barchart technical analysis snapshot | July 10, 2026 |
| Long-term capital plan | $4.5 billion to $4.9 billion FY2026 to FY2029 capital expenditure plan with about 70% of growth capital in regulated utilities | UGI June 2026 investor presentation | July 10, 2026 |
This UGI AI stock analysis is an informational research tool, not investment advice, financial advice, or a recommendation to buy or sell securities. Forecast ranges are scenario outputs based on available data and stated assumptions. They may be wrong, and technical levels can become stale after new price, earnings, regulatory, or market information.
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