Capital One Financial Corporation research snapshot
COF AI stock analysis currently reads Capital One Financial Corporation as a high-scale U.S. card, banking, auto, commercial, and payments-network franchise whose Q2 2026 beat showed strong revenue, improving card credit, and Discover and Brex integration on track. At the August 2, 2026 data cutoff, COF closed at $209.01 on July 31 with an independently verified market capitalization near $128.22 billion. Adjusted EPS of $5.81 and domestic card charge-offs down to 4.71% support a constructive case, but the Discover loan growth brownout, elevated marketing spend, litigation, and political headlines keep valuation risk real. This page uses scenario ranges, technical levels, and source-backed facts. It is informational research, not investment advice.
Current price
$209.01
Market cap
$128.22 billion
AI score
72 / 100
Rating
Constructive after Q2 beat, with Discover integration and credit momentum offsetting a still-demanding valuation
Trend status
Holding above the 200-day moving average, still far below the January 2026 high
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Capital One earns from credit cards, deposits, auto lending, commercial banking, consumer banking, the acquired Discover payments network, and the newly added Brex corporate card platform. | Medium-high |
| Moat | The moat comes from data-driven underwriting, brand reach, direct banking scale, card rewards, funding access, merchant and network assets from Discover, and regulatory barriers. | Medium |
| Management | Founder and CEO Richard Fairbank remains at the helm; Q2 2026 showed disciplined Discover integration (14 of 24 months), $2.7 billion of buybacks, and $2.5 billion of synergies on track. | Medium-high |
| Financial trend | Q2 2026 net income was $3.0 billion or $4.73 per diluted share, adjusted EPS was $5.81, NIM was 8.01%, CET1 was 13.7%, and domestic card charge-offs fell to 4.71%. | High |
| Valuation | At $209.01, COF traded near 13.4x trailing EPS and 9.5x forward EPS from StockAnalysis.com, about 1.25x book value, and a 1.53% dividend yield. Adjusted earnings power gives a different, lower normalized P/E lens. | Medium |
| Technical trend | COF held above its 200-day moving average near $207.40 and its 50-day near $197.06, with RSI near 57, but still traded about 20% below the January 6, 2026 high of $259.64. | Medium |
| Risk level | Risk is above average for a financial stock because unsecured card credit, auto lending, reserve builds, Discover loan growth, funding costs, consumer regulation, litigation, and political headlines can change earnings quickly. | High |
| AI confidence | High for descriptive data and cross-checkable calculations. Lower for exact price outcomes because credit and regulatory shocks can reprice card lenders quickly. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | Medium-low certainty. COF may have normalized earnings upside, but the stock requires confidence in credit quality, Discover synergies, and management execution. | Medium-low |
COF AI stock forecast
The COF AI stock forecast uses scenario math around the $209.01 close and the FY2026 adjusted EPS consensus near $20.27. The audited three-year model produced a bearish area near $122, a base area near $255, and a bullish area near $313 before dividends, using adjusted EPS growth of negative 5%, 8%, and 12% with exit multiples of 7x, 10x, and 11x.
$295 to $315
More likely if Discover returns to card and personal loan growth after the conversion waves, credit keeps improving, buybacks continue at scale, network volume rises, and investors value COF near 10x to 11x forward adjusted earnings.
$245 to $265
More likely if adjusted EPS compounds at a mid to high single-digit rate, Discover loan growth resumes by late 2026, credit stays contained, and the market holds the stock near a 10x forward adjusted multiple.
$115 to $130
More likely if unemployment rises, card charge-offs worsen, the Discover brownout extends, funding or regulatory costs climb, marketing spend stays heavy, or litigation and political risk escalates.
COF AI technical analysis
COF AI technical analysis is constructive but range-bound as of the August 2, 2026 cutoff. The stock closed at $209.01 on July 31, above its 200-day moving average near $207.40 and its 50-day near $197.06, with 14-day RSI near 57 and a low 14-day ADX near 15 that points to a weak trend rather than a strong breakout. The 52-week high of $259.64 from January 6 remains far overhead.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $209.01 | StockAnalysis.com July 31, 2026 close, used for market cap and valuation math at the August 2, 2026 cutoff. |
| Near support | $205 to $208 | The 20-day moving average near $205.23, the 200-day moving average near $207.40, and the July 31 low of $206.90 form the first support band. A failure here would weaken the setup. |
| Next support | $192 to $197 | The 50-day moving average near $197.06 and the 100-day moving average near $192.77 create a deeper support cluster. |
| Near resistance | $214 to $222 | The analyst low target near $214 and the Evercore ISI target near $222 form the first overhead band to monitor. |
| Higher resistance | $256 to $260 | The average analyst target near $256.73 and the 52-week high of $259.64 are the larger upside objectives. |
| 50-day moving average | $197.06 | Barchart and StockAnalysis.com reported the same 50-day moving average snapshot near $197.06. |
| 200-day moving average | $207.40 | Barchart and StockAnalysis.com reported the 200-day trend line near $207.40, just below the current price. |
| Momentum | RSI near 57, ADX near 15 | Barchart showed 14-day RSI near 56.75 and 14-day ADX near 15.13, which describes neutral momentum inside a range rather than a strong trend. |
| Volume | About 4.0 million on July 31 | StockAnalysis.com reported 4.02 million shares on July 31 versus a 20-day average near 4.3 to 4.6 million, so a breakout would need stronger participation. |
| Volatility | Elevated near earnings | Barchart reported 14-day historical volatility near 24%, so position sizing should account for larger swings around reports, guidance, and macro news. |
| Invalidation | Close below $205, then below $197 | A decisive close below the $205 to $208 support band would weaken the near-term setup; a break below the 50-day near $197 would turn the trend more defensive. |
COF AI trading strategy
The COF AI trading strategy is a rules-based framework for a cyclical card lender with banking deposits, auto exposure, commercial loans, Discover network optionality, and Brex growth. It is not personal advice and should be paired with live quotes, filings, position sizing, and risk controls.
Watch for COF to hold the $205 to $208 support band and reclaim the $214 to $222 resistance zone with volume above the 20-day average.
A close below $205 or a failed breakout after Q3 earnings should invalidate the short-term setup.
If COF pulls back toward the $197 to $207 support cluster without a new credit shock, compare price weakness with charge-offs, delinquencies, provision expense, deposits, NIM, CET1 capital, and Discover conversion timing.
Do not average down without a defined loss limit because card lenders can reprice sharply when losses, funding costs, or regulation move against them.
Track card loans, net charge-off rate, 30-plus day delinquencies, deposits, tangible book value, CET1, adjusted EPS, buybacks, network volume, Discover conversion waves, Brex growth, and marketing spend.
Reduce confidence if earnings depend on multiple expansion while credit costs, integration spend, marketing, or regulatory and legal pressure remain elevated.
Investment research summary
Capital One monetizes credit risk, card spend, deposit funding, auto lending, commercial banking, and payments-network access by underwriting customers, pricing risk, and managing funding through cycles.
The moat is strongest in analytics, card customer data, national brand reach, deposit scale, digital banking, risk models, and the acquired Discover network. It weakens if credit losses rise faster than pricing, rewards competition intensifies, or regulation caps fees.
The thesis fails if card losses spike, the Discover loan growth brownout extends, funding costs stay high, integration and marketing consume capital, regulators limit card economics, or consumers trade down faster than underwriting models expect.
Richard Fairbank remains a founder-operator with a long record in data-driven consumer finance. Q2 2026 showed integration discipline, buybacks, and $2.5 billion of synergies on track, but the test is credit discipline and network economics over the next two years.
Electronic payments, digital banking, rewards ecosystems, data-based underwriting, and payments-network ownership remain long-term trends. The counterweight is that unsecured consumer credit is cyclical and heavily regulated.
COF is not priced like a distressed lender. At about 9.5x forward adjusted EPS and near 1.25x book value, margin of safety depends on normalized EPS, credit losses, capital returns, and whether Discover creates durable network economics.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| COF price | $209.01 close on July 31, 2026 | StockAnalysis.com market data | August 2, 2026 |
| Market capitalization | $128.22 billion verified from $209.01 x 613.48 million shares | financial_rigor.py market cap verification and StockAnalysis.com | August 2, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 net income | $3.0 billion, or $4.73 per diluted common share | Capital One Q2 2026 earnings call and release | July 21, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 adjusted EPS | $5.81 per diluted common share | Capital One Q2 2026 earnings call | July 21, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 provision and credit | Provision down 27% to $3.0 billion; net charge-offs $3.7 billion; allowance $23 billion with 5.02% total coverage | Capital One Q2 2026 earnings call | July 21, 2026 |
| Domestic card credit | Charge-off rate 4.71%, down 54 bps year over year; delinquency rate 3.39%, down 21 bps year over year | Capital One Q2 2026 earnings call | July 21, 2026 |
| Net interest margin | 8.01%, up 14 basis points from Q1 2026 | Capital One Q2 2026 earnings call | July 21, 2026 |
| CET1 capital ratio | 13.7% at June 30, 2026 | Capital One Q2 2026 earnings call | July 21, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 share repurchases | $2.7 billion in the quarter | Capital One Q2 2026 earnings call | July 21, 2026 |
| FY2025 revenue and net income | $32.78 billion revenue (up 19.65%) and $2.18 billion net income | StockAnalysis.com financials | August 1, 2026 |
| TTM financials | TTM revenue $48.11 billion, TTM net income $10.20 billion | StockAnalysis.com financials and statistics | August 1, 2026 |
| Valuation check | 13.40x trailing EPS, 9.53x forward PE, 1.25x book value, 2.67x sales, 4.70x free cash flow, 1.53% dividend yield | financial_rigor.py valuation verification and StockAnalysis.com statistics | August 1, 2026 |
| Dividend | $3.20 annualized, $0.80 per quarter, 1.53% yield, ex-dividend August 17, 2026 | StockAnalysis.com dividend data and Business Wire | August 1, 2026 |
| Analyst consensus | Buy with an average target of $256.73 across 24 analysts, low $214, high $300, median $254.50 | StockAnalysis.com forecast | July 28, 2026 |
| Analyst rating mix, July 2026 | 15 Strong Buy, 5 Buy, 4 Hold out of 24 analysts | StockAnalysis.com forecast recommendation trends | July 28, 2026 |
| Recent analyst target updates | Citi $310 to $295, KBW $290, Argus $250, Jefferies $300, Evercore ISI $222, BofA $231 to $229, JPMorgan $245 to $246, Barclays $242 to $240 | StockAnalysis.com forecast latest forecasts and TipRanks | July 28, 2026 |
| Short interest | 12.88 million shares short, 2.10% of shares outstanding, 2.73 days to cover | StockAnalysis.com statistics short selling | August 1, 2026 |
| Balance sheet snapshot | Cash and equivalents $54.71B, gross loans $457.17B, total deposits $484.26B, shareholders equity $113.79B at June 30, 2026 | StockAnalysis.com balance sheet | August 1, 2026 |
| Technical snapshot | 50-day SMA near $197.06, 200-day SMA near $207.40, RSI near 56.75, 14-day ADX near 15.13 | Barchart and StockAnalysis.com technical snapshots | July 31, 2026 |
This COF AI stock analysis is an informational tool for research and education only. It is not investment advice, financial advice, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold Capital One Financial Corporation. Forecast ranges are scenarios based on available public data as of the stated cutoff date and may be wrong.
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