Bullish case
$245 to $260
More likely if EPS compounds near 8% annually, free cash flow funds debt reduction and residual buybacks, away-from-home and package mix stay strong, and investors keep paying a high-20s earnings multiple.
Coca-Cola Consolidated, Inc. research snapshot
COKE AI Stock Analysis
COKE AI stock analysis currently reads Coca-Cola Consolidated as the largest Coca-Cola bottler in the United States: a durable, route-dense consumer staples operator with strong recent sales and cash generation, but a balance sheet reshaped by the November 2025 repurchase of The Coca-Cola Company stake. As of the July 11, 2026 data cutoff, the latest verified quote used here was $175.78, implied market capitalization was about $11.70 billion using 66.56 million shares, and the central question is whether mid-20s earnings multiple still offers enough margin of safety after leverage rose and GAAP book equity turned negative. This page is informational research and not investment advice.
Current price
$175.78
Market cap
$11.70 billion
AI score
69 / 100
Rating
Quality US bottler, post-buyout leverage needs caution
Trend status
Pullback under 50-day average, still above 200-day
Data cutoff (updated weekly)
July 11, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
Research quality check
- information Richness
- A-level information richness. COKE has a long public reporting history, detailed SEC filings, company IR releases, liquid NASDAQ quotes, and multi-year financial series on Macrotrends and StockAnalysis, though sell-side coverage is thinner than mega-cap KO.
- bias Check
- The main AI bias risk is treating Coca-Cola branding as a free pass on bottler leverage, franchise dependence, dual-class control, and a pullback that may simply be mean reversion after a strong multi-year run. This page stress-tests debt after the KO stake buyout, negative book equity, territory concentration, and commodity or volume pressure.
- ai Confidence
- High for historical revenue, net income, market quote math, Q1 2026 company balances, and franchise business description. Medium for forward scenarios because share-count definitions, post-buyout interest expense, consumer mix, and the market multiple can shift.
- investment Certainty
- Medium. The bottling business is understandable and cash generative, but investment certainty is lower because COKE depends on Coca-Cola system economics, U.S. consumer demand, debt service after the $2.4 billion stake repurchase, and the price paid near a 24x TTM earnings multiple.
Quick verdict table
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | COKE makes, sells, and distributes Coca-Cola system and partner beverages across 14 U.S. states and the District of Columbia to roughly 60 million consumers. | High |
| Moat | Exclusive territory rights, route density, cold-drink execution, retailer relationships, and the Coca-Cola brand system create a wide local moat, but the brand is licensed rather than fully owned. | High |
| Management | Chairman and CEO J. Frank Harrison III leads a dual-class structure with family voting control near the mid-70s percent range; capital allocation recently centered on buying out KO equity and running ongoing buybacks. | Medium-high |
| Financial trend | FY2025 revenue was $7.228 billion and net income was about $571 million; TTM revenue through March 2026 reached $7.495 billion with TTM net income of $578.53 million. | High |
| Valuation | At $175.78 and TTM EPS of $7.28, verified math shows about 24.15x earnings, about 18.7x FY2025 free cash flow per share, and a 0.57% dividend yield, with negative GAAP book value after the KO buyout. | Medium |
| Technical trend | TipRanks showed COKE under its 50-day moving average near $183 and above its 200-day near $167, with RSI near 42, a corrective rather than breakout setup. | Medium |
| Risk level | Key risks are post-buyout leverage, franchise dependence on The Coca-Cola Company, dual-class control, U.S. volume and mix, input costs, sugar and packaging rules, and multiple compression. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | Descriptive analysis has high data confidence for company-reported financials and verified market math; return forecasts remain scenario estimates, not predictions. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | Business durability is clearer than entry-price certainty. Quality bottling economics can coexist with modest forward returns if leverage and the earnings multiple leave little room for error. | Medium |
COKE AI stock forecast
COKE AI Stock Forecast Scenarios
The COKE AI stock forecast should be read as scenario math, not a fixed target. Using TTM EPS near $7.28, a July 2026 quote near $175.78, and a three-year framework from financial_rigor.py, the tested range spans a bearish area near $116, a base area near $180, and a bullish area near $257 before dividends. Outcomes depend mainly on EPS growth after higher interest costs, volume and pricing execution, debt paydown, and the market multiple assigned to a leveraged U.S. bottler.
Base case
$165 to $185
More likely if EPS compounds near 4%, revenue grows mid-single digits, interest costs remain manageable, and the stock holds near a low-20s earnings multiple without a major volume shock.
Bearish case
$110 to $120
More likely if volume weakens, margins compress under cost or tax pressure, leverage limits capital returns, franchise economics tighten, or the market rerates COKE toward a mid-teens earnings multiple.
COKE AI technical analysis
COKE AI Technical Analysis
COKE AI technical analysis starts from the $175.78 quote used for this July 11, 2026 static page. Public technical sources showed the stock below the 50-day moving average near $183 and above the 200-day near $167, with RSI near 42 and MACD close to flat. That is a corrective pullback inside a longer uptrend, not a clean breakout. Because this page does not fetch live market data, traders should confirm the latest price, volume, and levels on a live chart before acting.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $175.78 | Yahoo Finance quote reference used for valuation and market-cap math as of the July 11, 2026 data cutoff. |
| Near support | $166 to $170 | Zone around the TipRanks 200-day moving-average reference near $166.73. A hold here would keep the longer uptrend intact. |
| Deeper support | $150 to $160 | Intermediate support area below the 200-day average. A sustained break would weaken the multi-month structure. |
| Near resistance | $183 to $190 | Area around the TipRanks 50-day moving average near $183 and recent overhead supply after the pullback. |
| Major resistance | $215 to $220 | Public market data showed a 52-week high near $219.65. Reclaiming that zone would require stronger momentum and volume. |
| 50-day SMA | About $183.06 to $183.82 | TipRanks reported COKE below the 50-day average, a short-term sell-side technical signal rather than a fundamental verdict. |
| 200-day SMA | About $166.73 | TipRanks reported COKE above the 200-day average, so the longer trend was still constructive at the cutoff. |
| Momentum | RSI 42.10, MACD near flat | Momentum was neutral to soft rather than overbought. The standard oversold reference is often 30. |
| Volatility and range | 52-week range about $109.42 to $219.65 | Google Finance showed a wide annual range, so position sizing should respect large historical swings even in a staples bottler. |
| Invalidation | Close below $166, then $150 | A close below the 200-day area would reduce confidence in the longer trend. A break toward $150 would challenge the bullish multi-month structure. |
COKE AI trading strategy
COKE AI Trading Strategy Framework
The COKE AI trading strategy is a rules-based framework, not personalized advice. It combines franchise-backed business evidence, technical confirmation, leverage checks, valuation discipline, and clear invalidation levels.
Trend-following setup
Look for COKE to reclaim and hold above the $183 to $190 50-day zone with improving volume before treating the pullback as fully repaired. A later push into the $215 to $220 prior-high zone needs confirmation rather than anticipation.
Avoid chasing strength without a stop. A failed reclaim of the 50-day area or a close back below $170 should lower confidence in the long setup.
Mean-reversion setup
If COKE tests the $166 to $170 200-day area without a thesis break, compare the entry with TTM EPS, free cash flow, interest coverage, debt paydown progress, and Q1 or next-quarter volume commentary.
Do not average down only because the Coca-Cola brand feels safe. Check leverage, franchise dependence, and earnings multiple before adding exposure.
Fundamental monitor
Track quarterly net sales and adjusted net sales, gross profit, operating cash flow, term-loan repayment, capital expenditure guidance near $300 million for 2026, dividend policy, residual buyback capacity, and any Coca-Cola system commercial updates.
Lower the rating if leverage stays elevated while valuation remains near mid-20s earnings, or if volume and mix weaken while debt service absorbs free cash flow.
Investment research summary
Four-master Research Compression
Business essence
Customers pay Coca-Cola Consolidated to manufacture, sell, and distribute ready-to-drink beverages in exclusive U.S. territories where cold availability, service frequency, and retailer execution decide shelf presence. The company is a bottler and distributor, not the global concentrate owner KO.
Moat
The moat comes from exclusive territory rights, route density, warehouse and production scale, retailer relationships, cold-drink equipment, and the Coca-Cola brand system across more than 300 brands and flavors. The franchise is powerful but not independent of The Coca-Cola Company.
Munger risk inversion
The thesis can fail if post-buyout debt stays high, interest costs compress equity free cash flow, U.S. consumers trade down, sugar or packaging rules tighten, franchise terms shift against bottlers, family control misaligns minority holders, or investors stop paying a defensive multiple after a multi-year re-rating.
Management
J. Frank Harrison III has led as chairman and CEO for decades under a dual-class structure with family voting control reported near 72% to 78% depending on the filing date. The November 2025 repurchase of about 18.8 million shares from The Coca-Cola Company at $127 per share for roughly $2.4 billion was a decisive capital-allocation move that simplified the shareholder base and raised leverage.
Industry trend
U.S. non-alcoholic ready-to-drink beverages are a large repeat-purchase category with slow unit growth and more room in price, mix, zero-sugar products, energy drinks, and away-from-home channels. COKE sits in the bottling and distribution layer of the Coca-Cola system rather than in global brand ownership.
Valuation and margin of safety
At about 24.15x TTM EPS and about 18.7x FY2025 free cash flow per share, COKE is priced for continued execution rather than distress. Negative GAAP book equity after the KO stake buyout makes price-to-book unusable as a safety check, so free cash flow, debt reduction, and earnings power matter more than accounting equity.
Source-backed data
COKE Data Table
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| COKE price | $175.78 quote reference used for market-cap and valuation math | Yahoo Finance COKE quote and key statistics | July 11, 2026 |
| Market capitalization | $11.70 billion verified as $175.78 x 66.56 million implied shares | financial_rigor.py and Yahoo Finance implied shares | July 11, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding | 56.52 million basic shares outstanding and 66.56 million implied shares; weighted average common shares in Q1 2026 were about 56.52 million after the KO stake buyout | Yahoo Finance and Coca-Cola Consolidated Q1 2026 release | July 11, 2026 |
| FY2025 revenue | $7.228 billion, up 4.76% from $6.900 billion in FY2024 | Macrotrends and StockAnalysis | July 11, 2026 |
| FY2025 net income | About $570.6 million to $571 million, down roughly 9.9% from $633.13 million in FY2024 | Macrotrends and StockAnalysis | July 11, 2026 |
| TTM revenue and net income | TTM revenue $7.495 billion and TTM net income $578.53 million through the period ending about March or April 2026 | Macrotrends, StockAnalysis, and Yahoo Finance | July 11, 2026 |
| TTM EPS and PE | TTM EPS $7.28 and PE 24.15x at $175.78 | Yahoo Finance and financial_rigor.py valuation verification | July 11, 2026 |
| Free cash flow | FY2025 free cash flow $626 million; Yahoo levered free cash flow TTM about $531 million | Macrotrends and Yahoo Finance | July 11, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 operating snapshot | Net sales about $1.85 billion, up 16.9% year over year; adjusted net sales up about 9%; operating cash flow $205.3 million; capital expenditure guidance about $300 million for fiscal 2026 | Coca-Cola Consolidated Q1 2026 results release | July 11, 2026 |
| Cash and debt (Q1 2026) | Cash about $233 million; total debt about $2.64 billion including long-term debt near $2.54 billion and current debt $100 million; total assets about $4.39 billion with liabilities above assets after the KO buyout | Coca-Cola Consolidated Q1 2026 balance sheet and Simply Wall St health snapshot | July 11, 2026 |
| Dividend | Quarterly dividend $0.25 per share, about $1.00 annualized, yield about 0.57% at $175.78 | Yahoo Finance and company dividend announcements | July 11, 2026 |
| KO stake repurchase | November 7, 2025 purchase of about 18.8 million shares from The Coca-Cola Company at $127 per share for roughly $2.4 billion, funded with cash and a $1.2 billion term loan facility | The Coca-Cola Company and Coca-Cola Consolidated announcements | July 11, 2026 |
| Technical indicators | RSI 42.10, 50-day SMA about $183.06 to $183.82, 200-day SMA about $166.73, MACD near flat | TipRanks COKE technical analysis | July 11, 2026 |
| Three-scenario valuation math | Using EPS $7.28 and growth or PE pairs of 8% at 28x, 4% at 22x, and 0% at 16x over 3 years produced about $256.8, $180.2, and $116.5 target prices | financial_rigor.py three-scenario | July 11, 2026 |
Frequently Asked Questions
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This COKE AI stock analysis is an informational tool for research and education only. It is not investment advice, a recommendation, or a guarantee of future performance. Forecast ranges are scenarios based on available data as of July 11, 2026 and can be wrong. Coca-Cola Consolidated (COKE) is not The Coca-Cola Company (KO).
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