Coca-Cola Consolidated, Inc. research snapshot
COKE AI stock analysis as of the August 3, 2026 data cutoff reads Coca-Cola Consolidated as the largest Coca-Cola bottler in the United States: a durable, route-dense consumer staples operator with strong recent volume and pricing momentum, but a balance sheet reshaped by the November 2025 buyout of The Coca-Cola Company stake and fresh margin pressure from aluminum costs and tariffs. The stock closed at $187.90 on July 31, 2026, implied market capitalization was about $12.51 billion on 66.56 million common and Class B shares, and the stock was trading above its 50-day average near $182 and its 200-day average near $173 after a pullback from the March 2026 high. Trailing valuation sits near 25.6x earnings on the S&P Global statistics basis, or about 21.6x on the current share count, with negative GAAP book equity, so the central question is whether momentum from Q1 2026 volume growth can offset tariff-driven cost inflation and leverage enough to justify the multiple. This page is informational research and not investment advice.
Current price
$187.90
Market cap
$12.51 billion
AI score
70 / 100
Rating
Quality US bottler with tariff cost pressure and buyout leverage
Trend status
Above the 50-day and 200-day averages, consolidating near the 100-day average
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | COKE makes, sells, and distributes Coca-Cola system and partner beverages across 14 U.S. states and the District of Columbia to roughly 60 million consumers, with TTM revenue of $7.495 billion and Q1 2026 volume up 13.4% reported and 6.4% adjusted. | High |
| Moat | Exclusive territory rights, route density, cold-drink execution, retailer relationships, and the Coca-Cola brand system create a wide local moat, but the brand is licensed rather than fully owned. | High |
| Management | Chairman and CEO J. Frank Harrison III leads a dual-class structure with family voting control; capital allocation recently centered on buying out KO equity, cutting the buyback program to $400 million with about $136.3 million remaining, and repaying $150 million of term loan principal in Q1 2026. | Medium-high |
| Financial trend | FY2025 revenue was $7.228 billion, up 4.8%, with net income of $570.6 million, down 9.9%; Q1 2026 net sales rose 16.9% reported and 8.5% adjusted, but adjusted gross margin fell about 70 basis points on aluminum costs and tariffs and adjusted net income declined 12.3%. | High |
| Valuation | At $187.90, the S&P Global statistics basis shows about 25.56x TTM earnings on EPS of $7.35, while the current share count implies TTM EPS near $8.69 and about 21.6x; P/FCF is about 18.9x and dividend yield is 0.53%, with negative GAAP book value after the KO buyout. | Medium |
| Technical trend | COKE closed at $187.90 on July 31, 2026, above the 50-day average near $182.10 and the 200-day average near $172.87, with RSI near 53.8 and a weak ADX near 12.5, a consolidation inside an uptrend rather than a fresh breakout. | Medium |
| Risk level | Key risks are tariff and aluminum cost inflation, post-buyout leverage and negative book equity, rising interest expense, franchise dependence on The Coca-Cola Company, dual-class control, U.S. volume and mix, and multiple compression after a 63.89% 52-week run. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | Descriptive analysis has high data confidence for company-reported financials and verified market math; return forecasts remain scenario estimates, not predictions. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | Business durability is clearer than entry-price certainty. Quality bottling economics can coexist with modest forward returns if tariff costs, leverage, and an earnings multiple near 22x to 26x leave little room for error. | Medium |
COKE AI stock forecast
The COKE AI stock forecast should be read as scenario math, not a fixed target. Using the July 31, 2026 close near $187.90 and a three-year framework from financial_rigor.py, the tested range spans a bearish area near $115 to $140, a base area near $180 to $215, and a bullish area near $255 to $310 before dividends, depending on the EPS basis used. Outcomes depend mainly on tariff and aluminum cost inflation, volume and pricing execution, interest costs after the KO buyout, debt paydown, and the market multiple assigned to a leveraged U.S. bottler.
$255 to $310
More likely if adjusted volume and pricing momentum persist, zero-sugar and energy brands keep winning, aluminum and tariff costs ease, free cash flow funds debt reduction, and investors keep paying a high-20s earnings multiple.
$180 to $215
More likely if EPS compounds near 4%, revenue grows at high single digits, interest costs stay manageable, tariff pressure is partly offset by pricing, and the stock holds near a low-20s to mid-20s earnings multiple.
$115 to $140
More likely if tariff-driven cost inflation persists, gross margin erodes further, consumers trade down, leverage limits capital returns, franchise economics tighten, or the market rerates COKE toward a mid-teens earnings multiple.
COKE AI technical analysis
COKE AI technical analysis starts from the $187.90 close used for this August 3, 2026 static page. StockAnalysis and Barchart both showed the stock above the 50-day moving average near $182.10 and above the 200-day near $172.87, with RSI near 53.8, ADX near 12.5, and price sitting right at the 100-day average near $187.89. That is consolidation inside an uptrend after a pullback from the March 13, 2026 all-time closing high near $216.32, not a clean breakout. Because this page does not fetch live market data, traders should confirm the latest price, volume, and levels on a live chart before acting.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $187.90 | Close on July 31, 2026, cross-validated across StockAnalysis, Macrotrends, and Barchart as of the August 3, 2026 data cutoff. |
| Near support | $182 to $183 | Zone around the 50-day moving average near $182.10. A hold here keeps the short-term uptrend intact. |
| Deeper support | $172 to $175 | Zone around the 200-day moving average near $172.87. A sustained break below this area would weaken the longer-term structure. |
| Major support | $160 to $165 | Intermediate support below the 200-day average. A move to this area would mark a deeper correction after the 52-week run. |
| Near resistance | $190 to $192 | Area around the 5-day average near $190.28 and the prior close near $189.83. A reclaim would signal short-term strength. |
| Major resistance | $216 to $220 | All-time closing high was $216.32 on March 13, 2026, with the 52-week high at $219.65. Reclaiming that zone needs stronger momentum and volume. |
| 50-day SMA | About $182.10 | StockAnalysis and Barchart both reported COKE above the 50-day average, a short-term constructive reading. |
| 200-day SMA | About $172.87 | StockAnalysis and Barchart both reported COKE above the 200-day average, so the longer trend remained bullish at the cutoff. |
| Momentum | RSI 53.84, ADX 12.53 | RSI near 53.8 is neutral and ADX near 12.5 signals a weak trend, so momentum is consolidating rather than overbought. |
| Volatility and range | 52-week range about $110.40 to $219.65 | The average 14-day ATR was about $6.87, so even a staples bottler can move several dollars per week around earnings and cost news. |
| Invalidation | Close below $172, then $165 | A close below the 200-day area near $172.87 would reduce confidence in the longer trend. A break toward $165 would challenge the bullish multi-month structure. |
COKE AI trading strategy
The COKE AI trading strategy is a rules-based framework, not personalized advice. It combines franchise-backed business evidence, technical confirmation, cost and leverage checks, valuation discipline, and clear invalidation levels.
Look for COKE to hold above the $182 to $183 50-day zone with the $172 to $175 200-day area as the trend anchor. A reclaim of the $190 to $192 near-resistance zone with improving volume would support a move toward the $216 to $220 prior-high area, with confirmation rather than anticipation.
Avoid chasing strength without a stop. A close back below the 50-day area or a sustained break of the 200-day zone near $172 should lower confidence in the long setup.
If COKE tests the $172 to $175 200-day area without a thesis break, compare the entry with TTM EPS, free cash flow, interest coverage, debt paydown progress, and Q2 2026 volume and margin commentary scheduled for August 5, 2026.
Do not average down only because the Coca-Cola brand feels safe. Check tariff cost guidance, gross margin trajectory, leverage, franchise dependence, and earnings multiple before adding exposure.
Track Q2 2026 results on August 5, 2026, including adjusted volume and net sales, adjusted gross margin, aluminum cost commentary, term loan refinancing and repayment, buyback usage under the $136.3 million remaining authorization, dividend policy, and any Coca-Cola system commercial updates.
Lower the rating if tariff-driven margin pressure persists while the stock holds a mid-20s earnings multiple, or if volume and mix weaken while debt service absorbs free cash flow.
Investment research summary
Customers pay Coca-Cola Consolidated to manufacture, sell, and distribute ready-to-drink beverages in exclusive U.S. territories where cold availability, service frequency, and retailer execution decide shelf presence. The company is a bottler and distributor, not the global concentrate owner KO.
The moat comes from exclusive territory rights, route density, warehouse and production scale, retailer relationships, cold-drink equipment, and the Coca-Cola brand system across more than 300 brands and flavors. The franchise is powerful but not independent of The Coca-Cola Company.
The thesis can fail if tariff-driven aluminum cost inflation keeps eroding gross margin, post-buyout interest expense absorbs free cash flow, U.S. consumers trade down, franchise terms shift against bottlers, family control misaligns minority holders, or investors stop paying a defensive multiple after a 63.89% 52-week run.
J. Frank Harrison III has led as chairman and CEO for decades under a dual-class structure with family voting control. The November 2025 repurchase of about 18.8 million shares from The Coca-Cola Company at $127 per share for roughly $2.4 billion simplified the shareholder base and raised leverage; the board then cut the buyback program to $400 million, and the company repaid $150 million of term loan principal in Q1 2026 while returning about $2.7 billion to stockholders in FY2025.
U.S. non-alcoholic ready-to-drink beverages are a large repeat-purchase category with slow unit growth and more room in price, mix, zero-sugar products, energy drinks, and away-from-home channels. COKE sits in the bottling and distribution layer of the Coca-Cola system, with 2026 catalysts from America250 and the FIFA World Cup partnerships.
At about 25.56x trailing EPS on the S&P Global statistics basis and about 18.9x free cash flow, COKE is priced for continued execution rather than distress. Negative GAAP book equity after the KO stake buyout makes price-to-book unusable as a safety check, so free cash flow, debt reduction, gross margin recovery, and earnings power matter more than accounting equity.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| COKE price | $187.90 close on July 31, 2026, cross-validated across sources | StockAnalysis, Macrotrends, and Barchart | August 3, 2026 |
| Market capitalization | $12.51 billion verified as $187.90 x 66.56 million shares with 0.03% deviation | StockAnalysis statistics and financial_rigor.py | August 3, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding | 66.56 million shares outstanding including common and Class B; Q1 2026 weighted average common shares about 56.52 million basic and 66.62 million diluted | StockAnalysis statistics and Q1 2026 release | August 3, 2026 |
| FY2025 revenue | $7.228 billion, up 4.8% from $6.900 billion in FY2024 | Q4/FY2025 results release and StockAnalysis | August 3, 2026 |
| FY2025 net income | $570.6 million, down 9.9% from $633.1 million in FY2024; adjusted net income was $668.5 million, down 1.5% | Q4/FY2025 results release and StockAnalysis | August 3, 2026 |
| TTM revenue and net income | TTM revenue $7.495 billion and TTM net income $578.53 million through the period ending April 3, 2026 | StockAnalysis financials | August 3, 2026 |
| TTM EPS and PE | S&P Global statistics basis: TTM EPS $7.35 and PE 25.56x at $187.90; current share count basis implies TTM EPS near $8.69 and about 21.6x | StockAnalysis statistics and financial_rigor.py | August 3, 2026 |
| Free cash flow | TTM free cash flow about $661.45 million; FY2025 free cash flow about $620 million on operating cash flow of $931.9 million less about $312 million in capex | StockAnalysis statistics and Q4/FY2025 release | August 3, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 operating snapshot | Volume up 13.4% reported and 6.4% adjusted; net sales $1,846.7 million up 16.9% reported and 8.5% adjusted; gross margin 39.4%; income from operations $237.5 million up 25.1%; net income $111.6 million; EPS $1.67 diluted; operating cash flow $205.3 million | Q1 2026 results release | August 3, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 margin pressure | Adjusted gross margin fell about 70 basis points to 39.1%, driven by aluminum costs from geopolitical conflicts, supply constraints, and import tariffs, with about $35 million in additional input costs versus Q1 2025 | Q1 2026 results release | August 3, 2026 |
| Cash and debt (Q1 2026) | Cash about $232.9 million; total debt about $2.64 billion including long-term debt near $2.537 billion and current debt $100 million; total assets about $4.393 billion with stockholders deficit of about $643.5 million after the KO buyout | Q1 2026 results release and StockAnalysis statistics | August 3, 2026 |
| Dividend | Quarterly dividend $0.25 per share, about $1.00 annualized, yield about 0.53% at $187.90; Q3 2026 dividend declared July 10, 2026 with ex-dividend date July 24, 2026 | StockAnalysis and company dividend announcements | August 3, 2026 |
| KO stake repurchase | November 7, 2025 purchase of about 18.8 million shares from The Coca-Cola Company at $127 per share for roughly $2.4 billion, funded with cash and a $1.2 billion 364-day term loan facility; KO relinquished its board seat and the buyback program was reduced to $400 million | Coca-Cola Consolidated and The Coca-Cola Company announcements | August 3, 2026 |
| Technical indicators | RSI 53.84, 50-day SMA about $182.10, 200-day SMA about $172.87, ADX 12.53, 100-day SMA about $187.89, average 14-day ATR about $6.87 | StockAnalysis statistics and Barchart technical analysis | August 3, 2026 |
| Three-scenario valuation math | Using EPS of $7.35 and $8.69 with growth and PE pairs of 8% at 28x, 4% at 22x, and 0% at 16x over 3 years produced bullish targets near $259 to $307, base targets near $182 to $215, and bearish targets near $118 to $139 | financial_rigor.py three-scenario | August 3, 2026 |
| Upcoming earnings | Q2 2026 and first half 2026 results scheduled after market close on August 5, 2026, after this page data cutoff | Coca-Cola Consolidated news release | August 3, 2026 |
This COKE AI stock analysis is an informational tool for research and education only. It is not investment advice, a recommendation, or a guarantee of future performance. Forecast ranges are scenarios based on available data as of August 3, 2026 and can be wrong. Coca-Cola Consolidated (COKE) is not The Coca-Cola Company (KO).
Design trading strategies visually with 10+ indicators. Set entry/exit conditions and risk management, then generate Pine Script code with no coding required.
Filter and discover stocks based on market cap, dividend yield, P/E ratio, sector, and more. Screen thousands of stocks with real-time data.
Smart AI-driven stock selection with fundamental screening, analyst estimates, and key metrics. Filter by P/E, market cap, dividends, and more.
