Calumet, Inc. research snapshot
CLMT AI stock analysis currently reads Calumet, Inc. as a diversified specialty hydrocarbon and renewable fuels company whose strong niche brands (Royal Purple, Bel-Ray, TruFuel), specialty solvents and waxes, and Montana renewable diesel expansion matter more than negative trailing GAAP earnings alone. The stock closed near $36.20 on July 10, 2026, with a market cap near $3.15 billion on about 87.15 million shares. TTM revenue is about $4.17 billion, but TTM GAAP net income is about $(188.8) million and diluted EPS is $(2.16), reflecting heavy investment in renewable fuels capacity and elevated interest expense on a debt-heavy balance sheet. The bullish case needs the Montana Renewables facility to reach full production, renewable fuel margins to stabilize, and specialty segments to keep generating consistent cash flow. The caution is that the CLMT AI stock forecast remains a leveraged energy transition story, so execution risk, renewable fuel policy, feedstock costs, and interest burden can move the stock significantly.
Current price
$36.20
Market cap
$3.15 billion using about 87.15 million shares outstanding, verified within 0.01% of reported market cap math
AI score
51 / 100
Rating
Specialty hydrocarbon and renewable fuels producer with strong niche brands and Montana renewable diesel growth, but negative trailing GAAP earnings, high leverage, and commodity and execution risk
Trend status
Price trades near the upper end of the 52-week range after a strong multi-month rally, with technical indicators showing neutral to bullish momentum on the daily timeframe
Data cutoff (updated weekly)
July 12, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Calumet sells specialty hydrocarbon products (solvents, waxes, lubricants), performance brands (Royal Purple, Bel-Ray, TruFuel), and renewable diesel and naphtha through the Montana Renewables facility. The specialty and brand segments have recurring demand and pricing power, while renewables is a high-growth but capital-intensive build-out. | Medium-high |
| Moat | The moat comes from established specialty formulations, customer relationships and switching costs in industrial solvents and waxes, brand equity in Royal Purple and Bel-Ray, and the geographically advantaged Montana Renewables renewable diesel position. It narrows if renewable fuel margins compress or commodity-linked segments lose pricing. | Medium |
| Management | CEO Louis Todd Borgmann and the leadership team have emphasized renewable fuels transformation, specialty portfolio optimization, and deleveraging. The capital allocation test is whether Montana Renewables generates the projected returns and overall EBITDA growth outpaces interest and maintenance capex. | Medium |
| Financial trend | TTM revenue is about $4.17 billion with a TTM GAAP net loss of $(188.8) million and $(2.16) diluted EPS. FY2025 net income was about $(33.8) million. Q1 2026 revenue was about $1.03 billion but the quarter had a $(317) million GAAP net loss, partly from renewable fuels ramp costs and interest expense. | High |
| Valuation | At $36.20, trailing PE is not meaningful given negative GAAP earnings. Price/sales near 0.75x on TTM revenue looks moderate for a specialty chemical company. EV/EBITDA near 105x on trailing EBITDA is very high, reflecting depressed near-term earnings. The useful lens is forward EBITDA and free cash flow generation from the renewable fuels ramp. | Medium |
| Technical trend | CLMT trades near the upper end of the $12.94 to $38.75 52-week range after a strong multi-month rally. Daily chart momentum is neutral to bullish. The stock has shown resilience near $35 support after recent pullbacks. | Medium |
| Risk level | Key risks are renewable fuels execution and margin volatility, high debt and interest expense, commodity price exposure (feedstock costs, renewable fuel credit prices), GAAP losses and cash burn, potential equity dilution, customer concentration, and environmental regulation changes. | High |
| AI confidence | Data confidence is high for reported financials, market data, and price. Forecast confidence is medium-low because trailing GAAP losses and the early-stage renewables ramp make normalized earnings estimates uncertain. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | CLMT screens as a leveraged energy transition story with valuable specialty assets, not a high-certainty compounder. Certainty depends on renewable fuels execution, debt reduction, and the pace of GAAP profitability. | Low to medium |
CLMT AI stock forecast
The CLMT AI stock forecast uses an estimated normalized mid-cycle EPS of $1.00 as a starting point, because trailing TTM GAAP EPS of $(2.16) reflects renewable fuels ramp costs and elevated interest that may not represent steady-state earnings. Using 3-year growth inputs of 25%, 5%, and -20% with terminal multiples of 18x, 14x, and 8x, the audited model produced a bullish value near $35, a base value near $16, and a bearish value near $4 per share. The base case suggests the current price already prices in successful renewable fuels execution. The wide range reflects the high uncertainty around renewable diesel margins, production ramp, and the pace of deleveraging.
$35 to $45
More likely if Calumet achieves full production at Montana Renewables with healthy renewable diesel margins, specialty brands maintain steady cash flow, EBITDA grows above $300 million, the company deleverages meaningfully, and the market assigns a mid-to-high teen PE multiple on growing EPS.
$16 to $24
More likely if renewable fuels execution is mixed, margins are cyclical, specialty segments perform in line with GDP, EBITDA stays in the $200 to $300 million range, and interest expense keeps GAAP EPS low or negative, with the market applying a moderate PE on thin earnings.
$4 to $10
More likely if renewable fuel margins collapse, feedstock costs spike, the company faces liquidity pressure from high debt and losses, equity dilution becomes necessary, or the market rerates the stock at a deep discount given GAAP losses and leverage.
CLMT AI technical analysis
CLMT AI technical analysis uses market data available around the July 12, 2026 cutoff. CLMT closed near $36.20 on July 10, 2026 after a strong rally from the early 2026 low near $13. The stock trades near the upper end of its 52-week range of $12.94 to $38.75. TradingView shows neutral oscillators and a buy signal from moving averages on the daily timeframe. The YTD return of about 82% reflects sustained upside momentum. Key support sits near the $32 to $35 zone, while resistance is near the $38 to $40 area.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $36.20 | July 10, 2026 close area from Yahoo Finance and TradingView quote summaries. |
| Immediate support | $34 to $35 | The $34 to $35 zone has acted as support during recent pullbacks from the upper 52-week range. |
| Secondary support | $30 to $32 | A deeper pullback could find support near $30 to $32, an area that served as resistance in early 2026 before breaking higher. |
| Key support | $25 to $28 | The $25 to $28 zone marks a prior consolidation area and a potential floor if the stock corrects more significantly. |
| Near resistance | $38 to $39 | The upper end of the 52-week range near $38 to $39 and the all-time high around $55 from 2007 frame the near-term supply zone. |
| 52-week high | $38.75 | The 52-week high near $38.75 represents a key resistance level. A clean break above this level would signal continued momentum. |
| 200-day moving average | Approximately $22 to $25 | The 200-day MA is well below the current price, indicating a strong long-term uptrend. A pullback to this level would be a significant correction. |
| 52-week low | $12.94 | The March 2026 low near $12.94 marks the 52-week floor and the starting point of the current rally. |
| Momentum | Neutral to bullish daily, strong YTD | RSI likely in the mid-to-high 50s after the recent rally. The stock has shown persistent upward momentum since early 2026. |
| Volume | About 357,000 shares on July 10 session vs 951,000 average | Volume is below average on the recent session, suggesting the rally may need renewed participation for a sustained breakout above $38. |
| Invalidation | Close below $30 | A decisive break under the $30 support zone would weaken the bullish technical setup and signal a potential trend reversal. |
CLMT AI trading strategy
The CLMT AI trading strategy below is a rules-based research framework, not personal advice. It connects price action with renewable fuel margins, segment revenue, EBITDA trends, debt levels, free cash flow, and analyst target revisions.
Watch for CLMT to hold above $34 to $35 support and then break clearly above the $38 to $39 resistance zone on above-average volume, while the company shows progress on Montana Renewables production and EBITDA improvement.
A close below $30 or a significant cut to renewable fuel margin guidance or an earnings miss that increases liquidity concerns should reduce trend-following confidence.
If CLMT pulls back toward the $25 to $30 zone while fundamentals remain intact (renewable fuels on track, no liquidity crisis), compare the entry with the audited base and bearish scenarios before treating the move as a buying opportunity.
Do not treat every pullback as cheap if renewable diesel margins, feedstock costs, or debt servicing capacity is deteriorating rather than cyclically varying.
Track quarterly revenue and segment EBITDA, Montana Renewables production volume and margins, total debt and net debt, interest coverage, free cash flow, renewable fuel credit (RIN/D4) prices, feedstock costs, and analyst revisions.
Position sizing should reflect that CLMT has negative trailing GAAP earnings, high enterprise-value-to-EBITDA, and a capital-intensive growth strategy that may require additional financing.
Investment research summary
Customers pay Calumet for specialized hydrocarbon formulations that industrial users rely on for consistent performance, premium lubricant brands with loyal followings, and renewable diesel production from a strategically located Montana facility. The business works best when specialty product margins hold and renewable fuel policy supports healthy margins.
Calumet benefits from established customer relationships and technical know-how in specialty solvents and waxes, brand loyalty for Royal Purple and Bel-Ray, and the geographic advantage of the Montana Renewables site. The moat can narrow if renewable fuel policies change, commodity-linked margins compress, or competitors replicate specialty formulations.
The thesis fails if Montana Renewables ramp disappoints, renewable fuel margins stay depressed, high debt and interest expense consume cash flow, GAAP losses persist and trigger covenant concerns or equity dilution, or feedstock costs spike while renewable fuel credit prices fall.
Louis Todd Borgmann and the leadership team have pursued a strategic transformation toward renewable fuels while maintaining the specialty chemicals portfolio. The capital allocation test is whether the Montana Renewables investment generates returns above the cost of capital and leverage decreases over time.
Renewable diesel and sustainable aviation fuel benefit from long-term decarbonization policy trends, but margin volatility and policy uncertainty remain significant. The specialty chemicals segment benefits from industrial demand that tends to be more stable than commodity chemicals.
At $36.20, CLMT trades near the upper end of analyst targets. The current price implies successful renewable fuels execution. Using a normalized EPS approach, the base case valuation is below the current price, suggesting limited margin of safety if execution disappoints. The high EV/EBITDA multiple offers no buffer if earnings fail to materialize.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| CLMT quote reference | About $36.20 close on July 10, 2026 | Yahoo Finance CLMT summary | July 12, 2026 |
| Market capitalization verification | $3.15 billion calculated from $36.20 x 87.15 million shares; tool deviation versus reported $3.16 billion was 0.01% | Pineify financial_rigor.py, Yahoo Finance | July 12, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding | About 87.15 million shares based on market cap to price calculation; Yahoo Finance showed 87.15 million for market cap math | Yahoo Finance and Pineify verification tool | July 12, 2026 |
| TTM revenue and GAAP net income | TTM revenue about $4.17 billion; TTM GAAP net income about $(188.8) million; TTM diluted EPS $(2.16); price/sales about 0.75x | Yahoo Finance key statistics | July 12, 2026 |
| Enterprise value and EV/EBITDA | Enterprise value about $5.33 billion; EV/Revenue about 1.28x; trailing EV/EBITDA about 105x reflecting depressed near-term earnings | Yahoo Finance statistics | July 12, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 financial results | Q1 2026 revenue about $1.03 billion (beat estimate of $1.00B); GAAP net loss $(317) million; adjusted EPS estimate was $(0.33) | TradingView and Yahoo Finance financials | July 12, 2026 |
| FY2025 financial results | FY2025 revenue about $4.14 billion; GAAP net income about $(33.8) million; EBITDA about $178.4 million | TradingView financials overview | July 12, 2026 |
| Cash and debt | Total cash about $138.6 million; enterprise value of $5.33B implies total debt near $2.3 billion | Yahoo Finance key statistics | July 12, 2026 |
| Levered free cash flow | TTM levered free cash flow about $155.61 million, positive despite GAAP losses | Yahoo Finance key statistics | July 12, 2026 |
| Valuation ratios verification | P/E: N/A (negative earnings); P/FCF: 20.22x; FCF yield: 4.94%; trailing P/S: 0.75x | Pineify financial_rigor.py verification tool | July 12, 2026 |
| Analyst price targets | Average target $38.80; low $26.00; high $60.00; HC Wainwright raised target to $60 (Buy) in March 2026 | Yahoo Finance analysis and analyst insights | July 12, 2026 |
| Price performance | 52-week range $12.94 to $38.75; YTD return about 82%; 1-year return about 133%; all-time high $55.26 from 2007 | Yahoo Finance and TradingView | July 12, 2026 |
| Technical summary | Daily technical rating: neutral to buy; moving averages show buy; oscillators show neutral; support near $34 to $35; resistance near $38 to $39 | TradingView technical analysis summary | July 12, 2026 |
| Business segments | Specialty Products and Solutions (solvents, waxes, lubricants); Performance Brands (Royal Purple, Bel-Ray, TruFuel); Montana/Renewables (renewable diesel, aviation fuel, naphtha, conventional refining) | Yahoo Finance company profile and Calumet investor materials | July 12, 2026 |
| Employees and corporate info | About 1,540 employees; founded 1919; HQ in Indianapolis, IN; CEO: Louis Todd Borgmann; NASDAQ listed; sector: Basic Materials / Specialty Chemicals | Yahoo Finance profile and TradingView company info | July 12, 2026 |
This CLMT AI stock analysis is an informational research tool only and is not investment advice, tax advice, or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Forecast scenarios are based on available public data as of July 12, 2026, and can be wrong if Calumet execution, renewable fuel policy and margins, feedstock costs, commodity prices, demand, regulation, competition, leverage, or market valuation changes.
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