Calumet, Inc. research snapshot
CLMT AI stock analysis as of the August 4, 2026 data cutoff reads Calumet, Inc. as a specialty hydrocarbon and renewable fuels producer entering a strong margin environment while still carrying negative GAAP earnings and high debt. The stock traded at $43.34 on August 3, 2026 at 2:45 PM EDT, down 0.85 or 1.92% from the $44.19 prior close, within a session range reported near $43.00 to $45.10, for a market capitalization near $3.78 billion on about 87.15 million shares. Q1 2026, released May 8, 2026, showed revenue of about $1.03 billion, adjusted EBITDA with tax attributes of $50.1 million, and a GAAP net loss of $317.0 million that was driven mostly by non-cash RINs expense, mark to market derivatives, and stock-based compensation. TTM revenue is about $4.17 billion with a TTM GAAP net loss of about $188.8 million and EPS of negative $2.17. The bullish case rests on a 2022-style crack spread environment, the EPA SET2 RVO resetting biofuel margins, and the MaxSAF 150 expansion commencing operations in early May 2026, which management expects to deliver a 4 to 5 fold increase in SAF volumes on an annual run rate basis. The caution is that the stock now trades above the consensus analyst target of $39.60, so the CLMT AI stock forecast carries little margin of safety if margins normalize or execution slips.
Current price
$43.34 at the August 3, 2026, 2:45 PM EDT reading, down 0.85 or 1.92% from the $44.19 prior close, within a session range reported near $43.00 to $45.10
Market cap
$3.78 billion, consistent with the $43.34 August 3 price times 87.15 million shares outstanding, verified within 0.08% of the reported figure
AI score
56 / 100
Rating
Specialty hydrocarbon and renewable fuels producer in a strong 2022-style margin environment, with the Montana Renewables MaxSAF expansion now running, but still negative trailing GAAP earnings, a thin forward earnings base, and heavy leverage
Trend status
Price sits near the top of the 52-week range after a multi-month rally, above the 20-day, 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day moving averages, with 14-day RSI near 70 signaling an overbought short-term condition
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Calumet sells specialty hydrocarbon products (solvents, waxes, lubricants, white oils, petrolatums, gels), performance brands (Royal Purple, Bel-Ray, TruFuel), and renewable diesel, SAF, and naphtha through the Montana Renewables facility. Specialty and brand segments have recurring demand and pricing power, while renewables is a high-growth but capital-intensive build-out that just started its MaxSAF 150 expansion. | Medium-high |
| Moat | The moat comes from established specialty formulations, customer relationships and switching costs in industrial solvents and waxes, brand equity in Royal Purple, Bel-Ray, and TruFuel, and the geographically advantaged Montana Renewables renewable diesel and SAF position with contractual SAF premiums of $1 to $2 per gallon over renewable diesel. It narrows if renewable fuel margins compress or commodity-linked segments lose pricing. | Medium |
| Management | CEO Louis Todd Borgmann and the leadership team have pushed through 20 plus price increases in the Specialty segment in response to the crude spike, hedged roughly 25% of fuels production on the 2-1-1 crack spread at attractive levels, delivered the MaxSAF 150 expansion on time and on budget, and issued a redemption notice for $100 million of 9.75% senior notes due 2028, while stating the plan to monetize Montana Renewables at some point. | Medium |
| Financial trend | TTM revenue is about $4.17 billion with a TTM GAAP net loss of about $188.8 million and EPS of negative $2.17. FY2025 net income was about negative $33.8 million on revenue of about $4.14 billion. Q1 2026 revenue was about $1.03 billion with a $317.0 million GAAP net loss, largely from non-cash RINs expense of $147.4 million, an unrealized derivative loss of $102.7 million, and $37.9 million of equity-based compensation, while adjusted EBITDA with tax attributes was $50.1 million. | High |
| Valuation | At $43.34, trailing PE is not meaningful given negative GAAP earnings. Price/sales near 0.91x on TTM revenue looks moderate for a specialty chemical company. EV/EBITDA near 869x on depressed trailing EBITDA is not useful, while about 21x on FY2025 EBITDA of roughly $298.5 million is more informative. Forward PE near 274x on a thin forward earnings base shows the market is paying for margin persistence and a full MaxSAF ramp, not for current reported earnings. | Medium |
| Technical trend | CLMT trades near the upper end of the $12.94 to $45.20 52-week range after a strong multi-month rally, up about 185% over the trailing 52 weeks. The stock sits above its 20-day, 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day moving averages near $41.54, $37.48, $34.75, and $28.26, with 14-day RSI near 70 on Barchart and 72 on StockAnalysis, a condition that is strong but overbought short term. | Medium |
| Risk level | Key risks are the persistence of the elevated margin environment, renewable fuel policy and RIN and credit prices, feedstock and crude cost volatility, high debt and interest expense near $200 million a year, negative GAAP earnings and a negative working capital position, potential equity dilution, the Shreveport operational event, and a stock that has already moved well above consensus analyst targets. | High |
| AI confidence | Data confidence is high for reported financials, market data, balance sheet figures, and price, cross-validated across StockAnalysis.com, SEC EDGAR XBRL, and the Q1 2026 earnings materials. Forecast confidence is medium-low because the forward earnings base is thin and estimates depend on margin persistence and MaxSAF execution. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | CLMT screens as a leveraged energy transition story with valuable specialty assets and a supportive margin backdrop, not a high-certainty compounder. Certainty depends on margin persistence, renewable fuels execution, debt reduction, and the pace at which GAAP profitability returns. | Low to medium |
CLMT AI stock forecast
The CLMT AI stock forecast uses scenario ranges because the trailing GAAP earnings base is negative and the forward base is thin, with StockAnalysis reporting a forward PE near 274. Using an estimated normalized EPS between $1.20 and $1.80 as a starting point, a three-year audited model produced a bullish range near $42 to $77, a base range near $17 to $36, and a bearish range near $4 to $11. Because the current price of $43.34 sits above the consensus analyst target of $39.60 and near the top of the modeled ranges, the base case suggests the market already prices in successful execution of the MaxSAF ramp and a durable strong margin environment.
$50 to $65
More likely if the 2022-style crack spread environment persists, the SET2 RVO keeps biofuel margins at $2 plus per gallon, MaxSAF 150 ramps to full production with $1 to $2 per gallon SAF premiums, Specialty price increases hold, EBITDA grows well above $300 million, and the company deleverages materially, allowing the market to apply a mid-to-high teen PE on growing normalized EPS.
$28 to $40
More likely if margins normalize from current spikes but stay above the SET1 era, renewable fuels ramp is solid but cyclical, Specialty segments perform in line with GDP, EBITDA stays in the $250 to $350 million range, and interest expense keeps GAAP EPS thin or low, with the market applying a moderate PE on limited reported earnings.
$8 to $16
More likely if crack spreads and renewable fuel margins collapse, feedstock costs spike, RIN and credit prices fall, the company faces liquidity pressure from high debt and a negative working capital position, equity dilution becomes necessary, or the stock simply re-rates from an overbought position back toward the 100-day or 200-day moving averages near $34.75 and $28.26.
CLMT AI technical analysis
CLMT AI technical analysis uses market data available around the August 4, 2026 data cutoff. CLMT traded at $43.34 on August 3, 2026 at 2:45 PM EDT, down 0.85 or 1.92% from the $44.19 prior close, after reaching a 52-week high of $45.20. The stock is up about 185% over the trailing 52 weeks and sits above its 20-day, 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day moving averages near $41.54, $37.48, $34.75, and $28.26. Barchart shows 14-day RSI near 70.08, 14-day ADX near 35.22 with positive DI of 33.29 versus negative DI of 13.59, confirming a strong uptrend, and 14-day historical volatility near 31.47%. The immediate support zone is the 20-day moving average near $41.50, with the 50-day near $37.48 as the next major level, while the 52-week high of $45.20 is the immediate resistance.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $43.34 | StockAnalysis.com real-time reading at the August 3, 2026, 2:45 PM EDT quote, down 0.85 or 1.92% from the $44.19 prior close within a session range reported near $43.00 to $45.10. |
| 5-day moving average | $43.15 | Barchart reported the 5-day moving average near $43.15 on August 3, 2026, essentially at the current price, so short-term momentum is consolidating. |
| Immediate support | $41.50 to $42.00 | The 20-day moving average near $41.54 reported by Barchart is the first support zone after the pullback from the $45.20 high. |
| Secondary support | $37.00 to $38.00 | The 50-day moving average near $37.48, which also matches StockAnalysis, is a major support zone that held during the rally. |
| Next support | $34.75 | The 100-day moving average near $34.75 is a deeper correction target if the overbought condition resolves down. |
| 200-day moving average | $28.26 | The 200-day trend line near $28.26 is far below the price and marks the strong long-term uptrend. A move there would be a major correction. |
| Near resistance | $45.20 | The 52-week high of $45.20, reached during the current rally, is the immediate supply zone. A clean break above it would signal continued momentum. |
| 52-week low | $12.94 | The March 2026 low near $12.94 marks the 52-week floor and the starting point of the current rally. |
| Momentum | RSI near 70, ADX near 35 | Barchart reported 14-day RSI near 70.08 on August 3, 2026, with StockAnalysis reporting 72.31, a strong but overbought condition, and 14-day ADX near 35.22 with positive DI above negative DI confirming an uptrend. |
| Volume | About 574,000 shares on August 3 vs 1.1 million average | Volume on the August 3 session was below the 20-day average near 1,115,000 to 1,119,000 shares, suggesting the rally may need renewed participation for a sustained break above $45.20. |
| Volatility | 14-day historical volatility near 31.5% | Barchart reported 14-day historical volatility near 31.47% with a 14-day average true range of about $1.64, so position sizing should account for large daily swings. |
| Invalidation | Close below $41.50 | A decisive close below the 20-day moving average near $41.50 would weaken the short-term uptrend, and a close below the 50-day near $37.48 would signal a deeper correction. |
CLMT AI trading strategy
The CLMT AI trading strategy below is a rules-based research framework, not personal advice. It connects price action with crack spreads, renewable fuel margins, RIN and credit prices, segment revenue, EBITDA trends, debt levels, free cash flow, and analyst target revisions.
Watch for CLMT to hold above the 20-day moving average near $41.50 and to break clearly above the $45.20 52-week high on above-average volume, while the company shows progress on MaxSAF 150 production, margin persistence, and EBITDA improvement.
A daily close below the 20-day moving average near $41.50 or a failed attempt at the $45.20 high should trigger a stop and review, and a close below the 50-day near $37.48 would turn the setup bearish.
If CLMT pulls back toward the $37.50 to $41.50 support cluster while fundamentals remain intact (margins holding, MaxSAF on track, no liquidity crisis), compare the entry with the audited base and bearish scenarios before treating the move as a buying opportunity, given the stock already trades above consensus targets.
Do not treat every pullback as cheap if crack spreads, renewable fuel margins, or debt servicing capacity is deteriorating rather than cyclically varying, and avoid averaging down given the stock is up about 185% in 52 weeks.
Track quarterly revenue and segment EBITDA, MaxSAF 150 production volume and SAF margins, the 2-1-1 crack spread, RIN and 45Z credit prices, feedstock costs, total debt and net debt, interest coverage, free cash flow, hedge realizations, and analyst revisions ahead of the August 7, 2026 Q2 report.
Position sizing should reflect that CLMT has negative trailing GAAP earnings, a negative book value near negative $12 per share, a negative working capital position, and a capital-intensive growth strategy that may require additional financing.
Investment research summary
Customers pay Calumet for specialized hydrocarbon formulations that industrial users rely on for consistent performance, premium lubricant and fuel brands with loyal followings, and renewable diesel and SAF production from a strategically located Montana facility. The business works best when specialty product margins hold and the renewable fuel policy environment supports healthy margins.
Calumet benefits from established customer relationships and technical know-how in specialty solvents and waxes, brand loyalty for Royal Purple, Bel-Ray, and TruFuel, and the geographic advantage and feedstock flexibility of the Montana Renewables site. The moat can narrow if renewable fuel policies change, commodity-linked margins compress, or competitors replicate specialty formulations.
The thesis fails if the current elevated margin environment normalizes faster than expected, renewable fuel margins stay depressed despite the SET2 RVO, the MaxSAF ramp disappoints, high debt and interest expense consume cash flow, GAAP losses persist and trigger covenant concerns or equity dilution, or feedstock costs spike while RIN and credit prices fall.
Louis Todd Borgmann and the leadership team have pursued a strategic transformation toward renewable fuels while maintaining the specialty chemicals portfolio. Recent decisions include 20 plus price increases in Specialty, crack spread hedges on about 25% of fuels production, the on-time delivery of the MaxSAF 150 expansion, and a $100 million senior note redemption, with an announced plan to eventually monetize Montana Renewables.
Renewable diesel and sustainable aviation fuel benefit from long-term decarbonization policy trends, and the March 2026 EPA SET2 RVO reset the biofuel margin outlook, while the Gulfstream G800 testing milestone supports the SAF demand story. The specialty chemicals segment benefits from industrial demand that tends to be more stable than commodity chemicals, and the current 2022-style crack environment adds fuel margin upside.
At $43.34, CLMT trades above the consensus analyst target of $39.60 and near the top of the modeled scenario ranges. The current price implies durable strong margins and successful MaxSAF execution. The high EV/EBITDA on trailing earnings offers little buffer if the margin environment normalizes, and the thin forward earnings base means the stock is sensitive to execution and policy surprises.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| CLMT quote reference | About $43.34 at the August 3, 2026, 2:45 PM EDT reading, down 0.85 or 1.92% from the $44.19 prior close, within a session range near $43.00 to $45.10 | StockAnalysis.com real-time quote | August 4, 2026 |
| Market capitalization verification | $3.78 billion calculated from $43.34 times 87.15 million shares; tool deviation versus reported $3.78 billion was 0.08% | Pineify financial_rigor.py, StockAnalysis.com | August 4, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding | About 87.15 million shares, matching StockAnalysis and consistent with 87,040,558 shares issued and outstanding as of March 31, 2026 per the Q1 2026 Form 10-Q | StockAnalysis.com and Q1 2026 Form 10-Q | August 4, 2026 |
| TTM revenue and GAAP net income | TTM revenue about $4.17 billion; TTM GAAP net income about $188.8 million loss; TTM diluted EPS about negative $2.17; price/sales about 0.91x on a revenue per share of about $47.85 | StockAnalysis.com statistics and income statement | August 4, 2026 |
| Enterprise value and EV multiples | Enterprise value about $6.26 billion; EV/Sales about 1.50x; trailing EV/EBITDA near 869x on depressed TTM EBITDA of about $7.2 million, versus about 21x on FY2025 EBITDA of about $298.5 million | StockAnalysis.com statistics and income statement | August 4, 2026 |
| Forward valuation | Forward PE near 274.01; forward price/sales about 0.83x; P/OCF about 75x; P/FCF about 951x on thin trailing free cash flow | StockAnalysis.com statistics | August 4, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 results | Q1 2026 revenue about $1.03 billion (SEC EDGAR XBRL shows 1,029.7 million); GAAP net loss of $317.0 million or basic loss per share of $3.64; adjusted EBITDA of $27.6 million; adjusted EBITDA with tax attributes of $50.1 million; operating income loss of $171.3 million per SEC EDGAR XBRL | Q1 2026 earnings release, Q1 2026 Form 10-Q, SEC EDGAR XBRL, StockAnalysis.com | August 4, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 non-cash items | Q1 2026 GAAP loss driven by $147.4 million of RINs expense, $102.7 million of unrealized derivative loss including $46.0 million from the inventory financing arrangement, and $37.9 million of non-cash equity-based compensation | Q1 2026 earnings release | August 4, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 segment adjusted EBITDA with tax attributes | Specialty Products and Solutions $44.3 million; Performance Brands $12.6 million; Montana/Renewables $10.2 million; corporate costs about negative $17.0 million | Q1 2026 earnings release and earnings call | August 4, 2026 |
| FY2025 results | FY2025 revenue about $4.14 billion (SEC EDGAR XBRL shows 4,137.1 million); GAAP net income about negative $33.8 million; operating income about $108.7 million; EBITDA about $298.5 million; basic EPS about negative $0.39 | StockAnalysis.com income statement and SEC EDGAR XBRL | August 4, 2026 |
| Balance sheet as of March 31, 2026 | Cash and cash equivalents $138.6 million plus restricted cash of $40.0 million; total assets $2,755.0 million; accounts payable $353.3 million; current portion of long-term debt $32.6 million; long-term debt less current portion $2,299.4 million; total liabilities $3,547.6 million; redeemable noncontrolling interest $250.6 million; total stockholders equity negative $1,043.2 million | Q1 2026 Form 10-Q, SEC EDGAR XBRL, StockAnalysis.com balance sheet | August 4, 2026 |
| Cash flow and leverage summary | Q1 2026 net cash used in operating activities about $86.2 million; Q1 2026 capital expenditures about $13.2 million; total debt near $2.5 billion per StockAnalysis statistics or about $2.33 billion per the balance sheet basis of $32.6 million current plus $2,299.4 million long term; net cash position about negative $2.36 billion or negative $27.04 per share | Q1 2026 Form 10-Q and StockAnalysis.com statistics | August 4, 2026 |
| Short interest and ownership | Short interest about 3.66 million shares, 4.20% of shares outstanding, 6.27% of float, and about 3.81 days to cover; insiders own about 3.21% and institutions about 39.39% | StockAnalysis.com statistics | August 4, 2026 |
| Analyst consensus and targets | Consensus rating Buy across 6 analysts with an average target of $39.60, down 8.63% from the current price; low target $26 and high target $60; median $38 | StockAnalysis.com forecast | August 4, 2026 |
| Analyst rating mix, July 2026 | 2 Strong Buy, 0 Buy, 4 Hold, 0 Sell, 0 Strong Sell out of 6 analysts | StockAnalysis.com forecast recommendation trends | August 4, 2026 |
| Recent analyst target updates | Goldman Sachs raised the target to $40 from $36 and keeps Hold (July 30, 2026); TD Cowen raised to $34 from $25 and keeps Hold (June 3, 2026); H.C. Wainwright raised to $60 from $33 and keeps Buy (May 11, 2026); Bank of America lowered to $33 from $40 and keeps Buy (March 30, 2026) | StockAnalysis.com forecast | August 4, 2026 |
| FY2026 and FY2027 consensus estimates | FY2026 revenue estimate about $4.58 billion, up 10.77% from FY2025, with adjusted EPS estimate near negative $2.84; FY2027 revenue about $4.81 billion with adjusted EPS estimate near $0.42 | StockAnalysis.com forecast | August 4, 2026 |
| Price performance | 52-week range $12.94 to $45.20; 52-week price change about plus 184.98%; beta 0.72; YTD average price about $31.53 with YTD performance near plus 121% | StockAnalysis.com and Barchart | August 4, 2026 |
| Technical snapshot | 5-day SMA near $43.15, 20-day SMA near $41.54, 50-day SMA near $37.48, 100-day SMA near $34.75, 200-day SMA near $28.26, 14-day RSI near 70.08 on Barchart and 72.31 on StockAnalysis, 14-day ADX near 35.22 with +DI 33.29 and -DI 13.59, 14-day historical volatility near 31.47%, 14-day ATR near $1.64 | Barchart and StockAnalysis.com technical snapshots | August 4, 2026 |
| MaxSAF 150 expansion | Montana Renewables completed its turnaround and commenced MaxSAF 150 operations in early May 2026, on time and on budget, with management expecting a 4 to 5 fold increase in SAF volumes on an annual run rate basis and contractual SAF premiums of $1 to $2 per gallon over renewable diesel | Q1 2026 earnings release and earnings call | August 4, 2026 |
| EPA SET2 RVO | The EPA SET2 RVO announced in March 2026 reset the biofuel margin outlook, with the renewable diesel index margin reaching over $3 per gallon at the end of Q1 2026 and management citing an equilibrated industry structure a bit north of $2 per gallon | Q1 2026 earnings call | August 4, 2026 |
| Hedging program | Calumet hedged approximately 10,000 barrels per day, about 25% of fuels production, on the 2-1-1 crack spread, with 2026 tranches near $22 per barrel and a 2027 tranche near $27 per barrel on a CBOT basis, and 2026 hedges costing about $6 million in realized losses in Q1 | Q1 2026 earnings call | August 4, 2026 |
| Shreveport operational event | Late in Q1 2026, organic chlorides discovered in the crude stream at Shreveport caused a loss of about 750,000 barrels of production and over $30 million of lost opportunity; the facility resumed normal operations in early April at about 50,000 barrels per day | Q1 2026 earnings release and earnings call | August 4, 2026 |
| Senior notes redemption | On July 8, 2026, Calumet issued a redemption notice for all $100 million of the 9.75% Senior Notes due 2028 (2028 Mirror Notes), to be redeemed on July 15, 2026 at 102.438% of principal plus accrued interest, and CFO David Lunin noted borrowings under the revolving credit facility were also reduced during Q2 | Calumet press release via PR Newswire | August 4, 2026 |
| Gulfstream G800 SAF testing | Montana Renewables served as the exclusive fuel supplier for Gulfstream Aerospace low-emissions testing on the G800, making Gulfstream the first business aviation company to complete a high-altitude flight test demonstrating the potential for 100% neat SAF to reduce contrail-forming particle emissions up to 50,000 feet | Calumet press release via PR Newswire | August 4, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 earnings date | Calumet plans to report second quarter 2026 results on August 7, 2026, before market open | Calumet press release via PR Newswire | August 4, 2026 |
| Business segments and corporate info | Segments: Specialty Products and Solutions (solvents, waxes, lubricants, white oils, petrolatums, gels); Performance Brands (Royal Purple, Bel-Ray, TruFuel); Montana/Renewables (renewable diesel, SAF, naphtha, and conventional refining of Canadian crude). About 1,540 employees; founded 1919; HQ in Indianapolis, Indiana; 12 facilities; NASDAQ listed; CEO Louis Todd Borgmann; CFO David A. Lunin | StockAnalysis.com company profile | August 4, 2026 |
This CLMT AI stock analysis is an informational research tool only and is not investment advice, tax advice, or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Forecast scenarios are based on available public data as of August 4, 2026, and can be wrong if Calumet execution, renewable fuel policy and margins, RIN and credit prices, feedstock and crude costs, demand, regulation, competition, leverage, or market valuation changes.
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