HF Sinclair Corporation research snapshot
DINO AI stock analysis currently reads HF Sinclair as a diversified independent energy company with about 640,000 barrels per day of crude oil charge in Q2 2026, roughly 60 million gallons of quarterly renewable diesel sales, a growing branded marketing network, and a lubricants and specialties business being prepared for separation. The August 3, 2026 setup is strongly constructive after HF Sinclair reported record Q2 2026 adjusted EBITDA of $1.5 billion, raised its dividend 5% to $2.10 annually, and announced plans to separate Lubricants and Specialties into an independent public company. The DINO AI stock forecast is still not a simple buy signal because the stock already re-rated sharply on crack spreads lifted by the Middle East and Russia conflicts, and investors still need to underwrite how long elevated margins last, how the separation and the Mississauga base oil retirement execute, EPA biofuel and RIN outcomes, and whether leadership changes from July 2026 deliver on operations and capital allocation.
Current price
$91.47 July 31, 2026 close
Market cap
$16.26 billion verified market cap
AI score
62 / 100
Rating
Independent refiner with record Q2 2026 results, a 5% dividend increase, and a planned lubricants and specialties separation, trading near 52-week highs with elevated but conflict-driven crack spreads
Trend status
Uptrend, well above the 50-day and 200-day moving averages after a roughly 110% 52-week advance, with RSI near 70
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | HF Sinclair sells gasoline, diesel, jet fuel, renewable diesel, lubricants, asphalt, and related products through refining, renewables, marketing, lubricants and specialties, and midstream segments. | High |
| Moat | Regional product-market positioning, complex refineries, logistics, Sinclair brand marketing, lubricants and specialties reach, and renewable diesel assets help, but product pricing remains commodity-driven and tied to global crack spreads. | Medium |
| Management | Franklin Myers remains CEO and chairman. Steven Ledbetter was appointed President and COO and Valerie Pompa President of Growth, Technology and Transformation in July 2026, with Vivek Garg as acting CFO, so the leadership team is seasoned but still navigating transition and transformation. | Medium |
| Financial trend | Q2 2026 was a record quarter with about $892 million GAAP net income, $960 million adjusted net income, and $1.5 billion adjusted EBITDA, after FY2025 revenue of $26.87 billion and net income of about $579 million. | High |
| Valuation | At $91.47, DINO trades near 8.8x TTM EPS of $10.42, about 7.0x forward EPS near $13, 1.58x book, roughly 7.0x free cash flow per share, and a 2.30% dividend yield using verified calculations. | High |
| Technical trend | The stock is above the 50-day moving average near $75.88 and the 200-day average near $60.58, with RSI near 70, so momentum is strong but extended near the 52-week high of about $94.22. | Medium |
| Risk level | Main risks are lower crack spreads if conflicts ease or China resumes product exports, weaker regional product differentials, RIN and clean-fuel credit volatility, refinery outages, and separation or asset-retirement execution issues. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | Descriptive confidence is high because key data is source-backed and cross-checked. Return confidence is lower because refiners reprice quickly when margins or leadership certainty change. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | DINO is a real cash-generating refiner with segment diversification, but the current price near multi-year highs needs sustained margins or clear transformation progress to offset cycle and execution risk. | Medium |
DINO AI stock forecast
The DINO AI stock forecast is scenario-based because HF Sinclair earnings are highly sensitive to crack spreads, crude differentials, renewable diesel margins and credits, lubricants demand, throughput, capital returns, and the planned separation. Using the $91.47 price reference, TTM EPS of $10.42, and the consensus FY2026 EPS near $13, the mechanical three-year model and analyst range point to about $35 to $60 in a bear case, $80 to $100 in a base case, and $110 to $140 in a bullish case before dividends. The current price sits near the top of the base range, so further upside needs stronger-than-consensus earnings or a higher multiple.
$110 to $140 before dividends
More likely if refining margins stay elevated into 2027 and 2028 as management expects, renewable diesel economics hold, buybacks continue, the lubricants separation and Mississauga retirement unlock value cleanly, and the market keeps a low-double-digit multiple on strong earnings.
$80 to $100 before dividends
More likely if FY2026 EPS lands near the consensus near $13, margins normalize gradually rather than collapse, the market uses a mid-single to low-double-digit refiner multiple, and dividends plus buybacks support total return without preventing cyclical drawdown.
$35 to $60 before dividends
More likely if the Middle East or Russia conflicts resolve, China resumes product exports, crack spreads compress, RINs and clean-fuel credits weaken, outages rise, or separation and Mississauga retirement execution disappoints.
DINO AI technical analysis
DINO AI technical analysis is constructive but extended as of the August 3, 2026 data cutoff. Multiple market sources put the July 31, 2026 close near $91.47, with a 50-day moving average near $75.88, a 200-day moving average near $60.58, and RSI near 70 after a roughly 110% 52-week advance. That setup confirms upside momentum, but price is near the 52-week high of about $94.22, so support sits far below if refining headlines reverse.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $91.47 July 31, 2026 close | StockAnalysis and Macrotrends listed this close as the latest multi-source reference before the August 3, 2026 cutoff. |
| Immediate support | $88 to $90 | This area brackets the recent consolidation zone and the analyst average price target near $88.93 after the post-earnings advance. |
| Trend support | $74 to $78 | This range sits near the 50-day moving average around $75.88 on StockAnalysis-style readings near the cutoff. |
| Long-term support | $58 to $63 | This range brackets the 200-day moving average near $60.58 and marks a deeper cycle-risk support zone. |
| Near resistance | $92 to $94 | DINO is near the 52-week high of about $94.22, so resistance is defined by supply at the all-time high area rather than old overhead chart structure. |
| Upper resistance | $105 to $140 | This is a scenario zone, not a target promise. It requires sustained margins, clean transformation execution, and continued capital returns. |
| Moving averages | 50-day near $75.88, 200-day near $60.58 | Holding above both averages keeps the uptrend intact. A break below the 50-day average would shift the setup from trend-following to risk review. |
| Momentum | RSI near 70 | Momentum is strong and close to overbought, which can persist in a breakout but raises pullback risk after a roughly 110% 52-week move. |
| Volume | Average volume near 2.9 million shares | Volume confirmation matters because refiners can move quickly around crack spreads, crude prices, earnings, and separation headlines. |
| Volatility | Watch Q3 2026 results and margin data | The Q3 2026 crude guidance of 590,000 to 620,000 bpd with the El Dorado turnaround, crack-spread trends, renewable-credit commentary, and separation updates are likely volatility drivers. |
| Invalidation | Close below $76, then below $61 | A sustained break below the 50-day average weakens trend confidence. A break below the 200-day average would challenge the larger uptrend. |
DINO AI trading strategy
The DINO AI trading strategy below is a rules-based research framework, not personal advice. It connects chart levels with refining margins, regional product markets, renewable diesel credits, lubricants demand, dividends, buybacks, balance-sheet risk, and the planned separation.
Watch for DINO to hold above the $88 to $90 consolidation area and keep trading above the 50-day average while crack spreads, regional product differentials, and earnings commentary support elevated margins.
A close below $76 should reduce trend confidence, especially if management signals weaker margins, higher turnaround costs, lower throughput, slower buybacks, or separation execution issues.
If DINO pulls back toward the $58 to $63 long-term support area without balance-sheet stress or structural margin impairment, compare the lower price with normalized earnings and cash-return capacity.
Do not treat a pullback as attractive if crack spreads are collapsing, renewable credits are weakening, or free cash flow no longer covers the $2.10 annual dividend and disciplined capital returns.
Track MidCon and West crack spreads, gasoline and distillate demand, crude differentials, refinery utilization, renewable diesel margins and RINs, lubricants margins, buybacks, dividends, cash, debt, EPA biofuel decisions, and separation and Mississauga retirement progress.
Position sizing should reflect that HF Sinclair is a cyclical refiner with conflict-dependent margins and transformation risk, not a guaranteed income stock or a precise AI price prediction.
Investment research summary
Customers pay HF Sinclair because transport, aviation, industry, agriculture, retail fueling, and industrial users need refined fuels, renewable diesel, lubricants, asphalt, and related products. The business converts refineries, marketing, midstream logistics, renewables units, and specialty lubricants into cash flow when product margins and throughput are favorable.
HF Sinclair has regional product-market exposure, complex refining assets, logistics, Sinclair branded marketing, lubricants and specialties reach, and renewable diesel capacity. The moat is real but narrower than the largest Gulf Coast exporters, and end-market pricing remains commodity-driven.
The thesis fails if crack spreads normalize faster than expected as conflicts ease or China resumes exports, regional differentials compress, RINs and clean-fuel credits weaken, outages rise, or the separation and Mississauga retirement create execution or cost issues.
Franklin Myers remains CEO and chairman, with Steven Ledbetter promoted to President and COO and Valerie Pompa to President of Growth, Technology and Transformation in July 2026. Vivek Garg serves as acting CFO. The management test is whether operations, capital returns, and the planned separation stay disciplined under this team.
About five to seven million barrels per day of global refining capacity is offline from the Middle East and Russia conflicts, which management expects to keep product markets tight into 2027, possibly 2028. Long-term fuel efficiency, regulation, clean-fuel policy, EV adoption, and commodity volatility still limit certainty for independent refiners.
At $91.47, DINO prices in a strong recovery and a record earnings run, leaving less room for margin or transformation disappointment. Margin of safety improves if earnings stay solid through mid-2027, the separation executes cleanly, or the stock falls closer to conservative scenario ranges while cash returns remain funded.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| DINO quote reference | $91.47 close on July 31, 2026, 52-week range about $42.16 to $94.22 | Macrotrends DINO stock price history and StockAnalysis DINO overview | August 3, 2026 |
| Market capitalization verification | $16.26 billion reported and $16.26 billion calculated from $91.47 x 177.78 million shares (0.01% variance); Macrotrends near $16.49 billion | Pineify financial_rigor.py and StockAnalysis DINO statistics | August 3, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding | 177.78 million shares outstanding, down about 3.4% year over year | StockAnalysis DINO statistics | August 3, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 earnings | $892 million GAAP net income attributable ($4.93 per share), $960 million adjusted net income ($5.31 per share), $1.5 billion adjusted EBITDA, about $10.39 billion revenue | HF Sinclair Q2 2026 earnings release and call transcript | August 3, 2026 |
| FY2025 revenue | $26.87 billion revenue, cross-checked against Macrotrends annual revenue of $26.869 billion | StockAnalysis DINO overview and Macrotrends DINO revenue | August 3, 2026 |
| FY2025 net income | About $579 million: company attributable figure and StockAnalysis FY2025 net income both near $579 million | HF Sinclair FY2025 results and StockAnalysis DINO financials | August 3, 2026 |
| TTM profitability and dividend | TTM revenue about $31.23 billion, TTM net income about $1.91 billion, TTM EPS $10.42, annual dividend $2.10 (about 2.30% yield), ex-dividend August 11, 2026 | StockAnalysis DINO statistics | August 3, 2026 |
| Cash, debt and liquidity | About $2.26 billion cash, about $2.8 billion debt outstanding as reported on the Q2 call, about $4.26 billion total liquidity including the undrawn $2 billion facility | HF Sinclair Q2 2026 earnings call transcript | August 3, 2026 |
| TTM cash flow | Operating cash flow about $2.78 billion, capital expenditures about $472 million, free cash flow about $2.31 billion, free cash flow per share near $13 | StockAnalysis DINO statistics | August 3, 2026 |
| Valuation and technical snapshot | About 8.8x TTM PE, about 7.0x forward PE, about 1.58x book, 50-day average near $75.88, 200-day average near $60.58, RSI near 70 | StockAnalysis DINO statistics and Macrotrends price history | August 3, 2026 |
| Analyst consensus | Hold consensus from 16 analysts, average price target $88.93, range about $67 to $114; post-earnings raises from Goldman Sachs to $114 and UBS to $105 | StockAnalysis DINO forecast and ratings | August 3, 2026 |
| Business scale | Q2 2026 crude oil charge averaged about 640,000 bpd, renewable diesel sales about 60 million gallons in Q2, about 1,700 branded stations, and a planned Lubricants and Specialties separation | HF Sinclair Q2 2026 earnings call transcript and company profile | August 3, 2026 |
This DINO AI stock analysis page is an informational research tool only. It is not investment advice, a recommendation, or a promise of future returns. Forecast scenarios are based on available public data as of August 3, 2026, and can be wrong if refining margins, crude prices, policy, capital returns, separation outcomes, or market multiples change.
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