Cognex Corporation research snapshot
CGNX AI stock analysis currently reads Cognex Corporation as a high-margin industrial machine vision specialist whose products help factories and warehouses inspect, identify, and guide products with cameras, sensors, and AI vision software. At the July 10, 2026 close of $66.80, market capitalization was about $11.12 billion using 166.42 million shares, and the setup is not a simple buy signal. Q1 2026 revenue of $268 million rose 24% year over year, adjusted diluted EPS reached $0.34, and the balance sheet still carried about $622 million of cash and investments with no debt, but trailing GAAP valuation remains expensive and industrial automation demand can turn quickly. This is informational analysis, not investment advice.
Current price
$66.80 close on July 10, 2026
Market cap
$11.12 billion verified market cap
AI score
68 / 100
Rating
High-margin machine vision leader with recovery momentum and premium valuation risk
Trend status
Constructive intermediate trend near the 50-day average and above longer-term recovery supports
Data cutoff (updated weekly)
July 12, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Cognex sells industrial machine vision systems, sensors, barcode readers, and AI vision software that customers use to improve quality, throughput, and automation. Gross margin of 71.1% in Q1 2026 shows software-like economics on a hardware-plus-software model. | High |
| Moat | The moat rests on application know-how, qualified production-line deployments, brand recognition in machine vision, a deep tools library, and switching friction once inspection and identification systems are embedded. Competition from Keyence and other automation suppliers still limits pure pricing power. | Medium-high |
| Management | CEO Matt Moschner took over in 2025 after a planned transition from Robert Willett and is pushing portfolio focus, cost discipline, AI vision products, and shareholder returns. Capital allocation currently features buybacks, a modest dividend, and a debt-free balance sheet. | Medium-high |
| Financial trend | FY2025 revenue was $994 million (+9%) and net income was about $114 million. Q1 2026 revenue rose 24% to $268 million, GAAP diluted EPS was $0.31, adjusted diluted EPS was $0.34, and free cash flow was $42 million. | High |
| Valuation | At $66.80, verified math showed about 78.6x TTM GAAP EPS of $0.85, about 7.5x book value, about 46.4x TTM free cash flow per share of $1.44, and a 0.51% indicated dividend yield. The multiple depends on continued earnings recovery. | High |
| Technical trend | The July 10 close near $66.80 sat around the mid-$60s to high-$60s moving-average band, well above the 52-week low near $32.55 and below the 52-week high of $72.88. Momentum looks constructive but not risk-free after a large recovery. | Medium |
| Risk level | Risk is medium-high because industrial and logistics capex, consumer electronics projects, automotive production, China exposure, tariffs, competition, product transitions, and multiple compression can all reduce the margin of safety. | High |
| AI confidence | Public filings and market data support high confidence in the factual snapshot. Return confidence is lower because the stock already reflects a rebound narrative and industrial order timing is hard to forecast. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | Business quality and balance-sheet strength are clear, but a margin of safety requires evidence that revenue growth, margin expansion, and free cash flow can keep catching up with a premium valuation. | Medium |
CGNX AI stock forecast
The CGNX AI stock forecast uses scenarios rather than a single price promise. A mechanical three-year model using FY2025 adjusted diluted EPS of $1.02, 0% to 20% EPS growth, and 25x to 50x exit multiples produced about $25.50 to $88.10. Using a higher $1.24 normalized EPS reference and growth of -5% to 18% with 22x to 48x exits produced about $23.40 to $97.80. Those models highlight valuation sensitivity after the rebound; they do not predict a required path.
$78 to $98
More likely if broad-based end-market strength continues, AI vision products expand design wins, adjusted margins keep improving, free cash flow funds buybacks without balance-sheet stress, and the market sustains a premium multiple as earnings grow into the price.
$48 to $72
More likely if revenue growth normalizes after the Q1 surge, margins stay solid but not perfect, competition limits pricing power, and the multiple compresses modestly while earnings still improve.
$23 to $40
More likely if industrial and logistics spending stalls, consumer electronics or automotive projects slip, China or tariff pressure bites, margins reverse, or investors re-rate Cognex toward a lower industrial-tech multiple.
CGNX AI technical analysis
CGNX AI technical analysis as of the July 12, 2026 cutoff uses the July 10 close near $66.80, the 52-week range of about $32.55 to $72.88, and third-party moving-average references clustered around the mid-$60s to high-$60s. The chart reflects a strong recovery from the 2025 low, so trend-following still needs defined invalidation levels rather than chase-only behavior.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Reference close | $66.80 on July 10, 2026 | Primary price anchor for this page snapshot |
| Near support band | $63.50 to $65.50 | Pullback zone near recent short-term averages and post-earnings consolidation |
| Deeper support / invalidation | $58.00 to $60.00 | Break below this band would weaken the post-recovery bullish structure |
| Near resistance | $68.00 to $72.88 | Includes recent supply and the 52-week high area |
| 50-day moving average reference | About $65.50 to $68.50 depending on source | Price is close enough that a few sessions can flip short-term bias |
| 200-day moving average reference | About $52 to $66 depending on source date and method | Longer-term recovery remains intact while price holds well above the prior low |
| Momentum and volume | RSI generally neutral near mid-range; average volume around 2.4M shares | Needs volume confirmation on breaks above $68 to $73 or below $63 |
| Volatility context | 52-week range $32.55 to $72.88 | Wide range shows both deep drawdown risk and strong rebound beta |
CGNX AI trading strategy
The CGNX AI trading strategy is a framework for monitoring machine vision recovery risk, not a personalized order ticket. Combine trend structure with earnings, order commentary, margin trajectory, and valuation checks before acting.
Look for holds above the $63.50 to $65.50 support band with rising volume on reclaims of $68 to $73 after constructive industrial or company-specific news. Confirm that 50-day and longer averages are not rolling over.
Invalidation can be a decisive close back below about $58 to $60, or a failed breakout at the 52-week high zone on weak volume. Size positions for industrial-tech beta rather than consumer-defensive beta.
If CGNX sells off toward deeper support while revenue guidance, gross margin, and net-cash balance sheet remain intact, a bounce framework can use the $58 to $63 area as a research zone rather than an automatic entry.
Do not average down through a break of recovery structure if end-market commentary turns negative or if consecutive quarters reverse margin expansion. Use hard stops and pre-defined max loss.
Track quarterly revenue growth, gross and adjusted EBITDA margins, free cash flow conversion, buyback pace, AI vision product adoption, logistics and electronics demand, and competitor pricing.
Reduce risk before earnings if valuation is already rich and you cannot tolerate a guidance miss. Treat any setup as optional research, not advice.
Investment research summary
Customers pay Cognex because machine vision reduces defects, raises throughput, and automates identification and guidance on production and logistics lines. The one-line essence is industrial eyesight software and systems sold into factory and warehouse automation.
Brand, application libraries, production-line qualification, installed-base familiarity, and AI vision tooling create real switching costs. Network effects are limited; scale and technology or IP matter more than pure platform effects. The moat can narrow if competitors match ease of use or undercut on price.
The thesis fails if industrial capex freezes, large electronics or automotive customers cut projects, China or tariff pressure shrinks orders, AI vision products fail to win, gross margins compress, or a 70x-plus trailing multiple collapses faster than earnings recover. Historical industrial-tech analogues show quality franchises can still re-rate hard in capex downturns.
Matt Moschner is executing a post-transition plan focused on profitable growth, operating-model change, portfolio pruning, and AI product leadership. Shareholder alignment shows up through buybacks and dividends on a no-debt balance sheet. Key-person and culture risk exist in any CEO transition, even when planned.
Factory automation, warehouse automation, quality inspection, and AI-enabled vision sit inside a multi-year digitization trend rather than a pure short cycle. Cognex estimates a multi-billion-dollar served market with roughly 10% to 11% through-cycle growth, but annual demand still swings with customer capex. Standing in 20 years, Cognex is more likely a durable specialty automation standard than a one-cycle gadget if software and ease of deployment keep compounding.
At $66.80, the market prices substantial recovery: about 78.6x TTM GAAP EPS, about 7.5x book, and roughly 2.2% FCF yield on $1.44 TTM free cash flow per share. Margin of safety is thin unless earnings growth continues to outrun multiple compression. Scenario math with adjusted EPS bases points to wide outcomes from the mid-$20s to high-$90s over three years depending on growth and exit PE.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| Share price and market cap | $66.80 close on July 10, 2026; about $11.12B market cap using 166.42M shares (0.03% verify-market-cap variance) | Morningstar quote and financial_rigor.py market-cap check | July 12, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding | 166.42M (Morningstar) vs 166.527M period-end shares in Q1 2026 balance sheet | Morningstar and Cognex Q1 2026 results | July 12, 2026 |
| FY2025 revenue | $994 million, +9% year over year | Cognex FY2025 results and Macrotrends cross-check | July 12, 2026 |
| FY2025 net income and EPS | About $114.4 million net income; GAAP diluted EPS $0.68; adjusted diluted EPS $1.02 | Cognex FY2025 results and Macrotrends cross-check | July 12, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 revenue and EPS | Revenue $268.4 million (+24%); GAAP diluted EPS $0.31; adjusted diluted EPS $0.34 | Cognex Q1 2026 results | July 12, 2026 |
| Gross and operating margins (Q1 2026) | Gross margin 71.1%; operating margin 22.3%; adjusted EBITDA margin 26.9% | Cognex Q1 2026 results | July 12, 2026 |
| Cash, investments, and debt | About $622 million cash and investments and no debt as of April 5, 2026 | Cognex Q1 2026 results | July 12, 2026 |
| Free cash flow | Q1 2026 free cash flow $42 million; FY2025 free cash flow about $237 million | Cognex Q1 2026 and FY2025 results | July 12, 2026 |
| TTM EPS and valuation checks | TTM EPS about $0.85; PE 78.59x; PB 7.52x; P/FCF 46.39x; FCF yield 2.16%; dividend yield 0.51% | Yahoo Finance / Forbes snapshot and financial_rigor.py | July 12, 2026 |
| Three-scenario valuation model | Using $1.02 adjusted EPS base: bull about $88.10, base about $54.30, bear about $25.50 over three years | financial_rigor.py three-scenario model | July 12, 2026 |
| Shareholder returns | Q1 2026 returned about $113 million, including $99 million of repurchases and $14 million of dividends; quarterly dividend $0.085 | Cognex Q1 2026 results | July 12, 2026 |
| Management | Matt Moschner became CEO in 2025 after a planned transition from Robert Willett; Dennis Fehr is CFO | Cognex leadership and Q1 2026 earnings release | July 12, 2026 |
This CGNX AI stock analysis page is an informational research tool, not investment advice, a recommendation, or a guarantee of future returns. Forecast scenarios are based on available filings, market data, and valuation math as of the stated cutoff date and can be wrong.
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