Cognex Corporation research snapshot
CGNX AI stock analysis reads Cognex Corporation as a high-margin industrial machine vision specialist whose cameras, sensors, barcode readers, and AI vision software help factories and warehouses inspect, identify, and guide products. At the July 31, 2026 close of $65.24, market capitalization was about $10.86 billion using 166.42 million shares, and the setup is not a simple buy signal. Q1 2026 revenue of $268 million rose 24% year over year, adjusted diluted EPS reached $0.34, adjusted EBITDA margin hit 26.9%, and the balance sheet held about $622 million of cash and investments with no borrowings, but the stock trades near 77 times trailing earnings and Q2 2026 results land on August 5, after this page cutoff. This is informational analysis, not investment advice.
Current price
$65.24 close on July 31, 2026
Market cap
$10.86 billion at the July 31, 2026 close
AI score
67 / 100
Rating
High-margin machine vision leader with the recovery intact and a premium valuation ahead of Q2 earnings
Trend status
Longer-term uptrend intact with price back above the 50-day average after a sharp pullback; resistance near the 52-week high
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Cognex sells industrial machine vision systems, sensors, barcode readers, and AI vision software that customers use to improve quality, throughput, and automation. Q1 2026 gross margin of 71.1% and a trailing-twelve-month gross margin near 68% show software-like economics on a hardware-plus-software model. | High |
| Moat | The moat rests on application know-how, qualified production-line deployments, brand recognition in machine vision, a deep tools library, and switching friction once inspection and identification systems are embedded. Competition from Keyence and other automation suppliers still limits pure pricing power. | Medium-high |
| Management | CEO Matt Moschner took over in 2025 after a planned transition and is executing focus, cost reduction, portfolio pruning, and AI vision leadership. Q1 2026 returned $113 million through buybacks and dividends on a balance sheet with about $622 million of cash and investments and no borrowings. | Medium-high |
| Financial trend | FY2025 revenue was $994 million (+9%) and net income was about $114 million. Q1 2026 revenue rose 24% to $268 million, GAAP diluted EPS was $0.31, adjusted diluted EPS was $0.34, and the quarter marked the seventh straight margin expansion. TTM revenue reached about $1.05 billion and TTM free cash flow about $241 million. | High |
| Valuation | At $65.24, the market cap was about $10.86 billion, about 76.8x TTM GAAP EPS of $0.85, about 44.1x forward earnings, about 45x TTM free cash flow per share of $1.45, and about 7.35x book value, with a 0.52% dividend yield. The multiple depends on continued earnings recovery. | High |
| Technical trend | The July 31 close near $65.24 sits just above the 50-day moving average near $64.67 and well above the 200-day average near $51.01, after a pullback from the $72.88 high to about $57.17 and a two-day rebound. RSI is neutral near 54. | Medium |
| Risk level | Risk is medium-high because industrial and logistics capex, consumer electronics project timing, automotive production, China exposure, tariffs, competition, product transitions, and multiple compression can all reduce the margin of safety. Q2 2026 earnings on August 5 add event risk after the cutoff. | High |
| AI confidence | Public filings and market data support high confidence in the factual snapshot. Return confidence is lower because the stock already reflects a recovery narrative and industrial order timing is hard to forecast. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | Business quality, margin trend, and balance-sheet strength are clear, but a margin of safety requires evidence that revenue growth and margin expansion keep catching up with a premium valuation after the recent pullback. | Medium |
CGNX AI stock forecast
The CGNX AI stock forecast uses scenarios rather than a single price promise. A mechanical three-year model starting from a forward EPS anchor of about $1.48 (the price divided by the 44.1x forward multiple) with EPS growth of 0% to 20% per year and exit multiples of 15x to 38x produced ranges from about $22 to $97. The model highlights valuation sensitivity after a 52-week gain of roughly 93%; it does not predict a required path.
$76 to $97
More likely if broad-based end-market strength continues, AI vision products keep winning designs, adjusted EBITDA margin reaches the 25% run-rate milestone, free cash flow funds buybacks without balance-sheet stress, and the market sustains a premium multiple as earnings grow into the price.
$48 to $59
More likely if revenue growth normalizes after the Q1 surge, margins stay solid but not perfect, competition limits pricing power, and the multiple compresses modestly while earnings still improve.
$22 to $30
More likely if industrial and logistics spending stalls, consumer electronics or automotive projects slip, China or tariff pressure bites, margins reverse, or investors re-rate Cognex toward a lower industrial-tech multiple after a guidance miss on August 5.
CGNX AI technical analysis
CGNX AI technical analysis as of the August 3, 2026 cutoff uses the July 31, 2026 close of $65.24, the 52-week range of about $34.60 to $72.88, and third-party moving averages near $64.67 (50-day) and $51.01 (200-day). The chart shows a sharp pullback from the $72.88 high to about $57.17 in late July followed by a strong two-day rebound, so trend-following still needs defined invalidation levels rather than chase-only behavior.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Reference close | $65.24 on July 31, 2026 | Primary price anchor for this page snapshot |
| Near support band | $62.50 to $64.50 | Includes the 50-day moving average near $64.67 and recent July consolidation lows |
| Rebound low / key support | $57.00 to $58.00 | The late-July swing low near $57.17; a decisive close below it would mark a deeper correction |
| Deeper support / invalidation | $52.00 to $54.00 | Zone above the 200-day moving average near $51.01; losing this would question the longer-term recovery |
| Near resistance | $65.90 to $68.00 | Includes the July 31 high near $65.97 and the early-July supply zone |
| 52-week high resistance | $72.88 | The June 30 high; a confirmed break with volume would resume the uptrend |
| 50-day moving average reference | About $64.67 | Price sits just above it, so a few sessions can flip short-term bias |
| 200-day moving average reference | About $51.01 | Long-term recovery stays intact while price holds well above it |
| Momentum and volume | RSI near 54; average volume around 1.85M shares | The July 30 to July 31 rebound came on above-average volume; breaks need confirmation |
| Volatility context | 52-week range $34.60 to $72.88; beta near 1.49 | Wide range shows both deep drawdown risk and strong rebound beta |
CGNX AI trading strategy
The CGNX AI trading strategy is a framework for monitoring machine vision recovery risk, not a personalized order ticket. Combine trend structure with earnings, order commentary, margin trajectory, and valuation checks before acting, especially around the August 5 earnings release.
Look for holds above the $62.50 to $64.50 zone with rising volume on reclaims of $66 to $68 after constructive industrial or company-specific news. Confirm that the 50-day and 200-day averages are not rolling over.
Invalidation can be a decisive close back below about $57, or a failed breakout near the $72.88 high on weak volume. Size positions for industrial-tech beta rather than consumer-defensive beta.
If CGNX sells off toward deeper support while revenue guidance, gross margin, and the net-cash balance sheet remain intact, a bounce framework can use the $57 to $62 area as a research zone rather than an automatic entry.
Do not average down through a break of recovery structure if end-market commentary turns negative or if consecutive quarters reverse margin expansion. Use hard stops and a pre-defined max loss.
Track quarterly revenue growth, gross and adjusted EBITDA margins, free cash flow conversion, buyback pace, AI vision product adoption, logistics and electronics demand, Q2 guidance versus the $280 million to $300 million revenue range, and competitor pricing.
Reduce risk before earnings if valuation is already rich and you cannot tolerate a guidance miss. Treat any setup as optional research, not advice.
Investment research summary
Customers pay Cognex because machine vision reduces defects, raises throughput, and automates identification and guidance on production and logistics lines. The one-line essence is industrial eyesight software and systems sold into factory and warehouse automation.
Brand, application libraries, production-line qualification, installed-base familiarity, and AI vision tooling create real switching costs. Network effects are limited; scale and technology or IP matter more than pure platform effects. The moat can narrow if competitors match ease of use or undercut on price.
The thesis fails if industrial capex freezes, large electronics or automotive customers cut projects, China or tariff pressure shrinks orders, AI vision products fail to win, gross margins compress, or a 77-times trailing multiple collapses faster than earnings recover. A Q2 guidance miss on August 5 is the near-term trigger to watch.
Matt Moschner is executing a post-transition plan focused on profitable growth, operating-model change, portfolio pruning, and AI product leadership, with a 25% adjusted EBITDA margin run-rate target by the end of 2026. Shareholder alignment shows up through buybacks and dividends on a no-borrowing balance sheet. Key-person and culture risk exist in any CEO transition, even when planned.
Factory automation, warehouse automation, quality inspection, and AI-enabled vision sit inside a multi-year digitization trend rather than a pure short cycle. Cognex describes a multi-billion-dollar served market with through-cycle growth in the low double digits, but annual demand still swings with customer capex. Standing in 20 years, Cognex is more likely a durable specialty automation standard than a one-cycle gadget if software and ease of deployment keep compounding.
At $65.24, the market prices substantial recovery: about 76.8x trailing GAAP EPS, about 44.1x forward earnings, about 45x free cash flow, and about 2.2% FCF yield. Margin of safety is thin unless earnings growth continues to outrun multiple compression. Scenario math with a forward EPS anchor points to wide outcomes from the low $20s to the high $90s over three years depending on growth and exit PE.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| Share price and market cap | $65.24 close on July 31, 2026; about $10.86B market cap using 166.42M shares | StockAnalysis.com with S&P Global Market Intelligence | August 3, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding | 166.42M shares; down about 1.9% year over year on buybacks; float about 158.72M | StockAnalysis.com statistics | August 3, 2026 |
| FY2025 revenue | $994 million, +9% year over year | Cognex Q4 2025 results and StockAnalysis.com cross-check | August 3, 2026 |
| FY2025 net income and EPS | About $114 million net income; GAAP diluted EPS $0.68; adjusted diluted EPS $1.02 | Cognex Q4 2025 results | August 3, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 revenue and EPS | Revenue $268 million (+24%); GAAP diluted EPS $0.31; adjusted diluted EPS $0.34 | Cognex Q1 2026 results | August 3, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 margins | Gross margin 71.1%; operating margin 22.3%; adjusted EBITDA margin 26.9% | Cognex Q1 2026 results | August 3, 2026 |
| Cash, investments, and borrowings | About $622 million cash and investments (including long-term investments) and no borrowings as of April 5, 2026; operating lease liabilities about $74 million | Cognex Q1 2026 results and StockAnalysis.com balance sheet | August 3, 2026 |
| Free cash flow | Q1 2026 free cash flow $42 million; FY2025 free cash flow about $237 million; TTM free cash flow about $241 million | Cognex Q1 2026 and Q4 2025 results; StockAnalysis.com cash flow | August 3, 2026 |
| TTM EPS and valuation checks | TTM EPS about $0.85; PE about 76.8x; forward PE about 44.1x; P/FCF about 45x; PB about 7.35x; FCF yield about 2.2%; dividend yield 0.52% | StockAnalysis.com statistics | August 3, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 guidance | Revenue guidance $280 million to $300 million versus $249 million in Q2 2025; adjusted EBITDA margin guidance 28% to 31% | Cognex Q1 2026 results | August 3, 2026 |
| Analyst consensus | 20 analysts, consensus Buy, average price target $77.21 (about +18% versus the July 31 close) | StockAnalysis.com forecast | August 3, 2026 |
| Shareholder returns | Q1 2026 returned about $113 million, including $99 million of repurchases and $14 million of dividends; FY2025 returned about $206 million | Cognex Q1 2026 and Q4 2025 results | August 3, 2026 |
| Management | Matt Moschner is CEO (since 2025, after a planned transition from Robert Willett); Dennis Fehr is CFO | Cognex leadership and earnings releases | August 3, 2026 |
| Next earnings date | Q2 2026 results scheduled for August 5, 2026, after market close | Cognex earnings date announcement and StockAnalysis.com | August 3, 2026 |
This CGNX AI stock analysis page is an informational research tool, not investment advice, a recommendation, or a guarantee of future returns. Forecast scenarios are based on available filings, market data, and valuation math as of the stated cutoff date and can be wrong. Cognex reports Q2 2026 results on August 5, 2026, after this page snapshot.
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