CAVA Group, Inc. research snapshot
CAVA AI stock analysis reads CAVA Group, Inc. as a high-growth Mediterranean fast-casual restaurant platform with strong guest traffic, attractive restaurant-level margins, and a long runway for new locations, but the stock is now trading in a downtrend after a sharp July pullback. At the August 3, 2026 data cutoff, the latest verified close was $65.23 on July 31, the market capitalization was about $7.59 billion, and the stock traded near 125x trailing GAAP earnings and about 195x trailing free cash flow. Q1 2026 revenue grew 32.2%, same-restaurant sales grew 9.7%, and adjusted EBITDA grew 37.6%, but price has fallen roughly 28% over the last 52 weeks and now sits below both the 50-day average near $75.05 and the 200-day average near $70.73. The CAVA AI stock forecast therefore depends heavily on the August 11, 2026 second-quarter report, new-store returns, same-restaurant sales, margin discipline, and whether earnings can catch up with the valuation. This page is for information only and is not investment advice.
Current price
$65.23
Market cap
$7.59 billion verified market cap
AI score
54 / 100
Rating
Strong restaurant unit economics, expensive on current earnings, and now in a technical downtrend
Trend status
Downtrend, with price below the 50-day and 200-day moving averages and weak momentum
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | CAVA sells customizable Mediterranean bowls, pitas, dips, and related food through a growing restaurant network, digital channels, catering, and a small CPG business. | High |
| Moat | Brand, menu differentiation, loyalty data, centralized food preparation, restaurant operating know-how, and early scale support a useful moat, but competitors can copy parts of the concept. | Medium-high |
| Management | Co-Founder and CEO Brett Schulman and the founding team have expanded the brand, developed loyalty and digital channels, and continued opening stores with no borrowings under the credit facility as of April 19, 2026. | Medium-high |
| Financial trend | FY2025 revenue reached $1.180 billion and net income was $63.7 million. Q1 2026 revenue grew 32.2%, same-restaurant sales grew 9.7%, and adjusted EBITDA grew 37.6% to $61.7 million, with FY2026 adjusted EBITDA guidance of $181 million to $191 million. | High |
| Valuation | At $65.23, CAVA screened near 125.5x TTM EPS, 9.4x book value, about 195x TTM free cash flow, and a 0.5% FCF yield. The valuation still leaves little room for an execution miss even after the recent price decline. | High |
| Technical trend | The July 31 close of $65.23 was below the 50-day average near $75.05 and the 200-day average near $70.73. RSI(14) near 40.14 signals weak momentum after the stock fell from the mid-$90s in June. | Medium |
| Risk level | The main risks are new-store productivity, labor and food costs, consumer trade-down, competition, delivery economics, food safety headlines, market saturation, leadership concentration, and valuation compression. | High |
| AI confidence | Descriptive confidence is high because company filings and third-party data agree on the core numbers. Forecast confidence is lower because CAVA has a short public history, an event-heavy August 11 report, and a growth-heavy valuation. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | CAVA may be a strong business in development, but investment certainty is lower than business quality because the current price assumes sustained growth, improving corporate-level earnings, and a continued premium multiple. | Medium-low |
CAVA AI stock forecast
The CAVA AI stock forecast uses $65.23 as the reference price and TTM diluted EPS of $0.52. An auditable three-year illustration using 25%, 15%, and 5% annual EPS growth with terminal P/E multiples of 45x, 30x, and 20x produced approximately $45.7, $23.7, and $12.0 per share. These outputs are not company guidance and are unusually sensitive to the low current EPS base, expansion costs, and the multiple assigned to a young restaurant chain. The next major input is the second-quarter 2026 report scheduled for August 11, 2026.
$40 to $55
More likely if CAVA sustains strong guest traffic, new restaurants reach attractive returns, the August 11 report shows same-restaurant sales holding near double digits, restaurant-level margins hold near 25%, and corporate expenses grow slower than revenue.
$20 to $30
More likely if the store base grows near the 2026 plan, same-restaurant sales normalize toward mid-single digits, margins remain healthy, and the market applies a lower growth multiple while GAAP earnings compound from a small base.
$10 to $18
More likely if traffic weakens, new-store returns fall, wage and food costs pressure margins, expansion consumes cash, or investors value CAVA closer to mature restaurant multiples before earnings scale.
CAVA AI technical analysis
CAVA AI technical analysis at the August 3, 2026 cutoff uses the July 31 close and the latest StockAnalysis indicator snapshot. Price was $65.23, the 50-day SMA was $75.05, the 200-day SMA was $70.73, and RSI(14) was 40.14. The stock has been in a downtrend since the mid-June high near $91.63, briefly tested the $61 to $62 zone in late July, and is now trading below both its long-term moving averages with weak momentum.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $65.23 | July 31, 2026 close from StockAnalysis. This is the price reference used for market-cap and valuation calculations. |
| Immediate support | $61.30 to $61.75 | The July 22 to July 27 intraday lows define a recent support zone. A sustained close below it would weaken the July stabilization attempt. |
| Deeper support | $55.00 to $58.00 | A round-number zone below the recent swing low. It is a reference level for what a deeper reset would look like, not a guaranteed floor. |
| 50-day moving average | $75.05 | Latest available StockAnalysis simple moving average. Price is below it, which keeps the short-term trend bearish until a sustained reclaim. |
| 200-day moving average | $70.73 | Latest available StockAnalysis simple moving average. Price below this level means the longer-term trend still needs confirmation. |
| Near resistance | $66.62 to $68.88 | The July 30 and July 31 intraday highs form the nearest overhead band. A move above it should be checked against volume and the 200-day average. |
| 200-day average resistance | $70.73 | The first major test for any recovery attempt. Rejection here would keep the chart in the lower half of the recent range. |
| Higher resistance | $75.00 to $80.00 | The 50-day average near $75.05 and the late June breakdown area mark the next meaningful supply zone. |
| Momentum | RSI(14) 40.14 | The RSI is below the neutral 50 level, signaling weak momentum after the June and July decline. |
| Volume and volatility | 2.15 million shares on July 31; 52-week range $43.41 to $98.79 | The July 31 volume was below the reported 20-day average near 3.29 million shares. The August 11 earnings report can widen the range. |
| Invalidation level | Below $61.30 on a closing basis | A sustained close below the late July low zone would invalidate the stabilization framework and raise the probability of a deeper reset. |
CAVA AI trading strategy
This CAVA AI trading strategy is a rules-based research framework, not personalized advice. The stock combines high growth sensitivity, a premium valuation, and a clear downtrend, so price confirmation should be paired with the August 11 earnings report, restaurant traffic, store returns, margin, and cash-flow checks.
Wait for a sustained reclaim of the $70.73 200-day average and then the $75.05 50-day average, with rising volume and no deterioration in same-restaurant sales or margin guidance. Until then, the dominant technical trend remains down.
A close back below $66.62 or a break below $61.30 can invalidate the setup. Define risk per trade before entry and do not treat a single strong session as a trend change.
If CAVA holds the $61.30 to $61.75 recent support zone, compare a bounce with valuation, guest traffic, new-store productivity, labor costs, and free cash flow before treating the move as a mean-reversion opportunity, and keep the August 11 report in mind as an event risk.
Do not average down only because price is below the moving averages or because the brand is popular. A support break combined with weaker traffic or margin guidance is a reason to reassess.
Track same-restaurant sales, traffic, AUV, restaurant-level margin, new openings, digital mix, adjusted EBITDA, GAAP earnings, capital expenditures, free cash flow, cash, and lease obligations at each earnings release, starting with the August 11, 2026 second-quarter report.
Use a position size that reflects restaurant execution and valuation risk. Revisit the thesis when guidance or unit economics change, not only when the chart reaches a price level.
Investment research summary
Customers pay CAVA for convenient food that combines Mediterranean flavors, customization, perceived health benefits, and a consistent restaurant experience. CAVA earns primarily from company-operated restaurants, with smaller contributions from CPG and other revenue.
The early moat is practical rather than permanent: brand recognition, a focused menu, centralized production of dips and dressings, digital and loyalty data, restaurant training, and operating scale. CAVA reported 459 restaurants in Q1 2026 and believes there is room for more than 1,000 US restaurants by 2032, but competitors can copy menu ideas and target the same consumer.
The thesis fails if new restaurants cannibalize the existing base, expansion enters weaker markets, guest traffic fades, labor and food costs outpace pricing, third-party delivery takes too much margin, a food safety headline damages traffic, or the market stops paying a growth multiple before GAAP earnings scale. A short public record also makes historical success easy to over-extrapolate.
Brett Schulman and co-founder Ted Xenohristos remain central to CAVA's brand, operating model, and expansion strategy. Management has built the loyalty program, expanded digital channels, introduced new restaurant designs, and funded growth largely through operations, with no borrowings under the credit facility as of April 19, 2026. Key-person risk is material because the 10-K specifically identifies both founders as important to strategy, innovation, and execution.
CAVA sits at the intersection of fast-casual convenience, demand for healthier food, ethnic cuisine, digital ordering, and restaurant modernization. The long-term opportunity is credible, but the industry remains competitive and sensitive to discretionary spending, wages, food inflation, real estate, delivery economics, and local consumer tastes.
At $65.23, CAVA had a market cap near $7.59 billion against TTM revenue of about $1.286 billion, TTM net income of $61.6 million, and TTM free cash flow of $38.9 million. The valuation implies that future store growth and margin expansion must be strong. A margin of safety would require a lower entry price, materially higher normalized earnings, or evidence that the store economics can scale without similar corporate cost growth.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| CAVA quote reference | $65.23 close on July 31, 2026 | StockAnalysis CAVA price history | August 3, 2026 |
| Market capitalization verification | $7.59 billion reported and $7.59 billion calculated from $65.23 x 116.41 million shares, with 0.05% deviation | Pineify financial_rigor.py and StockAnalysis market cap | August 3, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding | 116,473,856 shares outstanding as of May 12, 2026, per the Q1 2026 Form 10-Q cover; StockAnalysis lists 116.41 million | CAVA Q1 2026 Form 10-Q and StockAnalysis | August 3, 2026 |
| FY2025 revenue | $1.180 billion, cross-checked between the 2025 Form 10-K at $1,179.664 million and StockAnalysis at $1,180 million | CAVA 2025 Form 10-K and StockAnalysis financials | August 3, 2026 |
| FY2025 net income | $63.743 million GAAP net income, cross-checked with StockAnalysis at $63.74 million | CAVA 2025 Form 10-K and StockAnalysis financials | August 3, 2026 |
| Cash, investments, and leases | $295.8 million cash plus $107.2 million fixed-income investments as of April 19, 2026; operating lease liabilities totaled about $498.5 million, with no borrowings under the credit facility | CAVA Q1 2026 Form 10-Q | August 3, 2026 |
| FY2025 cash flow | $184.8 million operating cash flow and approximately $26.1 million free cash flow after $158.7 million of capital expenditures | CAVA 2025 Form 10-K and StockAnalysis financials | August 3, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 operating update | $434.4 million CAVA revenue, 9.7% same-restaurant sales growth, 6.8% traffic growth, 25.1% restaurant-level margin, and 20 net new openings | CAVA Q1 2026 results | August 3, 2026 |
| FY2026 company guidance | 75 to 77 net new restaurants, 4.5% to 6.5% same-restaurant sales growth, 23.7% to 24.3% restaurant-level margin, and $181 million to $191 million adjusted EBITDA | CAVA Q1 2026 results | August 3, 2026 |
| Next earnings report | Q2 2026 results scheduled for August 11, 2026 | StockAnalysis CAVA quote and Business Wire | August 3, 2026 |
| Technical reference | 50-day SMA $75.05, 200-day SMA $70.73, RSI(14) 40.14, and 20-day average volume near 3.29 million shares | StockAnalysis CAVA statistics | August 3, 2026 |
| Valuation reference | TTM EPS $0.52, book value per share $6.96, TTM free cash flow per share $0.33, and no dividend; Pineify verification produced 125.4x P/E, 9.4x P/B, about 195x P/FCF, and a 0.5% FCF yield | StockAnalysis statistics and Pineify financial_rigor.py | August 3, 2026 |
| Analyst consensus | Buy rating from 27 analysts with an average price target of $91.92, a low of $55, and a high of $110 | StockAnalysis CAVA forecast | August 3, 2026 |
| Short interest | 13.38 million shares short, about 11.50% of shares outstanding and 12.45% of float | StockAnalysis CAVA statistics | August 3, 2026 |
This CAVA AI stock analysis is an informational research tool only. It is not investment advice, financial advice, or a recommendation to buy or sell CAVA Group, Inc. stock. Forecast scenarios use public data, assumptions, and valuation ranges as of the stated data cutoff and can be wrong.
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