CAVA Group, Inc. research snapshot
CAVA AI stock analysis currently reads CAVA Group, Inc. as a high-growth Mediterranean fast-casual restaurant platform with strong guest traffic, attractive restaurant-level margins, and a long runway for new locations. At the July 12, 2026 data cutoff, the latest verified close was $72.18 on July 10, the market capitalization was about $8.40 billion, and the stock traded at roughly 139x TTM GAAP earnings and 219x TTM free cash flow. The CAVA AI stock forecast is therefore highly dependent on new-store returns, same-restaurant sales, margin discipline, and whether future earnings can catch up with the valuation. This page is for information only and is not investment advice.
Current price
$72.18
Market cap
$8.40 billion verified market cap
AI score
56 / 100
Rating
Strong restaurant unit economics, expensive on current earnings
Trend status
Short-term rebound attempt, with price just below the 50-day average and below the 200-day average
Data cutoff (updated weekly)
July 12, 2026 (latest market close: July 10, 2026)
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | CAVA sells customizable Mediterranean bowls, pitas, dips, and related food through a growing restaurant network, digital channels, catering, and a small CPG business. | High |
| Moat | Brand, menu differentiation, loyalty data, centralized food preparation, restaurant operating know-how, and early scale support a useful moat, but competitors can copy parts of the concept. | Medium-high |
| Management | Co-Founder and CEO Brett Schulman and the founding team have expanded the brand, developed loyalty and digital channels, and continued opening stores without borrowings under the credit facility at FY2025 year end. | Medium-high |
| Financial trend | FY2025 revenue reached $1.180 billion and net income was $63.7 million. Q1 2026 revenue grew 32.2%, same-restaurant sales grew 9.7%, and adjusted EBITDA grew 37.6%. | High |
| Valuation | At $72.18, CAVA screened near 138.81x TTM EPS, 10.37x book value, 218.73x TTM free cash flow, and a 0.46% FCF yield. The valuation leaves little room for an execution miss. | High |
| Technical trend | The July 10 close was slightly below the 50-day average near $72.28 and below the 200-day average near $78.67. RSI was constructive, while MACD remained negative. | Medium-high |
| Risk level | The main risks are new-store productivity, labor and food costs, consumer trade-down, competition, delivery economics, market saturation, leadership concentration, and valuation compression. | High |
| AI confidence | Descriptive confidence is high because company filings and third-party data agree on the core numbers. Forecast confidence is lower because CAVA has a short public history and a growth-heavy valuation. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | CAVA may be a strong business in development, but investment certainty is lower than business quality because the current price assumes sustained growth and improving corporate-level earnings. | Medium-low |
CAVA AI stock forecast
The CAVA AI stock forecast uses $72.18 as the reference price and TTM diluted EPS of $0.52. An auditable three-year illustration using 25%, 15%, and 5% annual EPS growth with terminal P/E multiples of 45x, 30x, and 20x produced approximately $45.7, $23.7, and $12.0 per share. These outputs are not company guidance and are unusually sensitive to the low current EPS base, expansion costs, and the multiple assigned to a young restaurant chain.
$40 to $55
More likely if CAVA sustains strong guest traffic, new restaurants reach attractive returns, same-restaurant sales remain positive, restaurant-level margins hold near the low-to-mid 20s, and corporate expenses grow slower than revenue.
$20 to $30
More likely if the store base grows near the 2026 plan, same-restaurant sales normalize toward mid-single digits, margins remain healthy, and the market applies a lower growth multiple while GAAP earnings compound from a small base.
$10 to $18
More likely if traffic weakens, new-store returns fall, wage and food costs pressure margins, expansion consumes cash, or investors value CAVA closer to mature restaurant multiples before earnings scale.
CAVA AI technical analysis
CAVA AI technical analysis at the July 12, 2026 cutoff uses the July 10 close and the latest available Investing.com indicator snapshot. Price was $72.18, the 50-day SMA was $72.28, the 200-day SMA was $78.67, RSI(14) was 61.37, and MACD was negative $0.22. The chart showed a rebound from the July 8 low, but price remained below the long-term moving average and recent volatility was high.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $72.18 | July 10, 2026 close from StockAnalysis. This is the price reference used for market-cap and valuation calculations. |
| Immediate support | $70.76 to $71.22 | Classic and Fibonacci pivot supports from the latest Investing.com snapshot. They are reference levels, not guaranteed reversal points. |
| Deeper support | $66.22 to $68.06 | The July 8 intraday low and July 10 intraday low define a recent downside zone. A break below it would weaken the rebound structure. |
| 50-day moving average | $72.28 | Latest available Investing.com simple moving average. A sustained close above it would improve the short-term trend signal. |
| 200-day moving average | $78.67 | Latest available Investing.com simple moving average. Price below this level means the longer-term trend still needs confirmation. |
| Near resistance | $71.92 to $72.62 | The latest classic pivot resistance band. A move above it should be checked against volume and the 50-day average. |
| Higher resistance | $78.00 to $80.00 | A round-number zone near the 200-day average and the early July breakdown area. Rejection here would keep the chart range-bound. |
| Momentum | RSI(14) 61.37 and MACD negative $0.22 | The RSI reading shows positive short-term momentum, while the negative MACD cautions that the rebound has not fully repaired trend momentum. |
| Volume and volatility | 2.69 million shares on July 10; 52-week range $43.41 to $98.79 | The July 10 volume was below the reported average daily volume near 4.08 million shares. Earnings and consumer data can widen the range. |
| Invalidation level | Below $66.00 on a closing basis | A sustained close below the recent low zone would invalidate a short-term rebound framework and raise the probability of a deeper reset. |
CAVA AI trading strategy
This CAVA AI trading strategy is a rules-based research framework, not personalized advice. The stock has high growth sensitivity and a premium valuation, so price confirmation should be paired with restaurant traffic, store returns, margin, and cash-flow checks.
Wait for a sustained reclaim of the $72.28 50-day average, then look for a move through the $78.00 to $80.00 resistance area with stronger volume and no deterioration in same-restaurant sales or margin guidance.
A close back below $70.76 or a break below $66.00 can invalidate the setup. Define risk per trade before entry and do not treat one strong session as a trend change.
If CAVA holds the $66.22 to $68.06 recent support zone, compare the rebound with valuation, guest traffic, new-store productivity, labor costs, and free cash flow before treating the move as a mean-reversion opportunity.
Do not average down only because price is below the 200-day average or because the brand is popular. A support break combined with weaker traffic or margin guidance is a reason to reassess.
Track same-restaurant sales, traffic, AUV, restaurant-level margin, new openings, digital mix, adjusted EBITDA, GAAP earnings, capital expenditures, free cash flow, cash, and lease obligations at each earnings release.
Use a position size that reflects restaurant execution and valuation risk. Revisit the thesis when guidance or unit economics change, not only when the chart reaches a price level.
Investment research summary
Customers pay CAVA for convenient food that combines Mediterranean flavors, customization, perceived health benefits, and a consistent restaurant experience. CAVA earns primarily from company-operated restaurants, with smaller contributions from CPG and other revenue.
The early moat is practical rather than permanent: brand recognition, a focused menu, centralized production of dips and dressings, digital and loyalty data, restaurant training, and operating scale. CAVA reported 459 restaurants in Q1 2026 and believes there is room for more than 1,000 US restaurants by 2032, but competitors can copy menu ideas and target the same consumer.
The thesis fails if new restaurants cannibalize the existing base, expansion enters weaker markets, guest traffic fades, labor and food costs outpace pricing, third-party delivery takes too much margin, or the market stops paying a growth multiple before GAAP earnings scale. A short public record also makes historical success easy to over-extrapolate.
Brett Schulman and co-founder Ted Xenohristos remain central to CAVA's brand, operating model, and expansion strategy. Management has built the loyalty program, expanded digital channels, introduced new restaurant designs, and funded growth largely through operations. Key-person risk is material because the 10-K specifically identifies both founders as important to strategy, innovation, and execution.
CAVA sits at the intersection of fast-casual convenience, demand for healthier food, ethnic cuisine, digital ordering, and restaurant modernization. The long-term opportunity is credible, but the industry remains competitive and sensitive to discretionary spending, wages, food inflation, real estate, delivery economics, and local consumer tastes.
At $72.18, CAVA had a market cap near $8.40 billion against TTM revenue of about $1.286 billion, TTM net income of $61.6 million, and TTM free cash flow of $38.9 million. The valuation implies that future store growth and margin expansion must be strong. A margin of safety would require a lower entry price, materially higher normalized earnings, or evidence that the store economics can scale without similar corporate cost growth.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| CAVA quote reference | $72.18 close on July 10, 2026 | StockAnalysis CAVA price history | July 12, 2026 |
| Market capitalization verification | $8.40 billion reported and $8.40 billion calculated from $72.18 x 116.409 million shares, with 0.03% deviation | Pineify financial_rigor.py and StockAnalysis market cap | July 12, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding | 116.409 million shares outstanding as of April 19, 2026 | CAVA Q1 2026 Form 10-Q | July 12, 2026 |
| FY2025 revenue | $1.180 billion, cross-checked between the 2025 Form 10-K at $1,179.664 million and StockAnalysis at $1,180 million | CAVA 2025 Form 10-K and StockAnalysis financials | July 12, 2026 |
| FY2025 net income | $63.743 million GAAP net income, cross-checked with StockAnalysis at $63.74 million | CAVA 2025 Form 10-K and StockAnalysis financials | July 12, 2026 |
| Cash, investments, and leases | $295.8 million cash plus $107.2 million fixed-income investments as of April 19, 2026; operating lease liabilities totaled about $498.5 million | CAVA Q1 2026 Form 10-Q | July 12, 2026 |
| FY2025 cash flow | $184.8 million operating cash flow and approximately $26.1 million free cash flow after $158.7 million of capital expenditures | CAVA 2025 Form 10-K and StockAnalysis financials | July 12, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 operating update | $434.4 million revenue, 9.7% same-restaurant sales growth, 6.8% traffic growth, 25.1% restaurant-level margin, and 20 net new openings | CAVA Q1 2026 results | July 12, 2026 |
| FY2026 company guidance | 75 to 77 net new restaurants, 4.5% to 6.5% same-restaurant sales growth, 23.7% to 24.3% restaurant-level margin, and $181 million to $191 million adjusted EBITDA | CAVA Q1 2026 results | July 12, 2026 |
| Technical reference | 50-day SMA $72.28, 200-day SMA $78.67, RSI(14) 61.37, MACD negative $0.22, and pivot range $70.52 to $72.62 | Investing.com CAVA technical analysis | July 12, 2026 |
| Valuation reference | TTM EPS $0.52, book value per share $6.96, TTM free cash flow per share $0.33, and no dividend; Pineify verification produced 138.81x P/E, 10.37x P/B, 218.73x P/FCF, and 0.46% FCF yield | StockAnalysis statistics and Pineify financial_rigor.py | July 12, 2026 |
This CAVA AI stock analysis is an informational research tool only. It is not investment advice, financial advice, or a recommendation to buy or sell CAVA Group, Inc. stock. Forecast scenarios use public data, assumptions, and valuation ranges as of the stated data cutoff and can be wrong.
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