The Bank of New York Mellon Corporation research snapshot
BNY AI stock analysis currently reads The Bank of New York Mellon Corporation as a high-quality financial infrastructure franchise with deep client trust, global custody and servicing scale, and accelerating operating momentum. The stock is priced near $156.33 with a verified market capitalization of about $106.07 billion as of the August 2, 2026 data cutoff. BNY reported a record second quarter on July 15, 2026, with EPS of $2.45 up 27% year over year and total revenue up 13% to $5.7 billion, and it raised its 2026 outlook. The forecast is scenario-based rather than a fixed price prediction, and the premium valuation means future returns still depend on fee growth, market levels, net interest income, expenses, capital return, and bank regulation.
Current price
$156.33
Market cap
$106.07 billion
AI score
78 / 100
Rating
High-quality custody franchise with strong Q2 momentum, premium valuation
Trend status
Constructive uptrend, price above the 5-day, 20-day, 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day moving averages
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | BNY earns recurring and activity-based fees from custody, fund services, issuer services, clearance, collateral, Pershing, payments, liquidity, investment management, and wealth. | High |
| Moat | The moat comes from trust, regulatory credibility, global operating scale, embedded workflows, client switching costs, network position in securities services, and technology infrastructure. | High |
| Management | Robin Vince has pushed a simpler commercial model, cost discipline, platform thinking, AI-enabled operations, and better capital return. Q2 2026 delivered the 14th consecutive quarter of sales growth and a raised outlook. | Medium-high |
| Financial trend | Q2 2026 total revenue rose 13% year over year to a record $5.7 billion, EPS rose 27% to $2.45, and 2026 revenue and net interest income guidance were both raised. | High |
| Valuation | At $156.33 and TTM EPS near $8.57, BNY trades near 18.2x trailing earnings, 16.3x forward earnings, 2.66x book value, and about a 1.61% forward dividend yield using the $0.63 quarterly dividend. | Medium-high |
| Technical trend | The daily technical setup is constructive. BNY is above its 5-day, 20-day, 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day moving averages in the July 31, 2026 Barchart and StockAnalysis snapshots. | Medium |
| Risk level | Main risks are a tough Q3 comparison, lower market values, weaker client activity, net interest income pressure, custody fee pressure, operational failures, cyber risk, regulation, and a multiple reset. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | Descriptive confidence is high because the data set is deep and cross-verified. Return confidence is lower because rates, markets, client flows, and bank multiples can change quickly. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | BNY is a durable financial utility, but a buy decision still needs price discipline and a view on custody-bank growth, rate sensitivity, capital rules, and the digital asset transition. | Medium |
BNY AI stock forecast
The BNY AI stock forecast uses scenario math around the $156.33 price reference, FY2026 consensus EPS of about $9.24, and a three-year earnings multiple framework. The audited model produced a bearish area near $124, a base area near $176, and a bullish area near $215 before dividends.
$205 to $225
More likely if revenue keeps growing at double-digit rates, AUC/A and AUM keep rising, Pershing and Market and Wealth Services gain wallet share, net interest income stays resilient, buybacks reduce share count, and investors keep paying an 18x earnings multiple.
$168 to $185
More likely if EPS compounds near a high single-digit rate, revenue growth normalizes after the strong Q2 comparison, capital returns continue, and the market values BNY near 16x earnings.
$115 to $132
More likely if equity and bond markets weaken, client activity slows, the Q3 tough comp bites, fee pressure rises, net interest income falls, digital asset costs outpace revenue, or BNY is re-rated toward a low-teens earnings multiple.
BNY AI technical analysis
BNY AI technical analysis is constructive as of the July 31, 2026 close. BNY closed near $156.33, above its 5-day moving average near $155.83, 20-day near $155.88, 50-day near $147.99, 100-day near $137.47, and 200-day near $126.33. The stock is just off its 52-week high of $163.77, so the uptrend is intact but the reward-to-risk is tighter after the Q2 run.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $156.33 | StockAnalysis.com and Barchart quote snapshots both show a July 31, 2026 close near $156.33. |
| Immediate support | $154 to $156 | The 5-day moving average near $155.83 and the 20-day moving average near $155.88 form the first pullback support zone. |
| Secondary support | $147 to $149 | The 50-day moving average near $147.99 is the first medium-term trend support to monitor. |
| Longer trend support | $126 to $138 | The 100-day moving average near $137.47 and the 200-day moving average near $126.33 are the slower trend lines if momentum cools. |
| Near resistance | $158 to $164 | The 52-week high of $163.77 is the main overhead target, with minor supply near the $157 to $158 area from recent trading. |
| Moving averages | 5-day $155.83, 20-day $155.88, 50-day $147.99, 100-day $137.47, 200-day $126.33 | Barchart reported all daily moving averages in the July 31, 2026 snapshot, and StockAnalysis confirmed the 50-day and 200-day values. |
| Momentum | Positive but near-term pulled back | The 14-day RSI was near 55.9 and the 14-day ADX near 29.6, which shows a trending move that is no longer stretched. |
| Volume and volatility | 20-day average volume near 3.9 million shares | BNY is sensitive to financial-sector risk appetite, rate moves, market values, and client transaction activity. |
| Invalidation | Close below $148 | A close below the 50-day moving average near $148 would weaken the short-term uptrend; a move below $126 would break the longer-term trend. |
BNY AI trading strategy
The BNY AI trading strategy below is a rules-based research framework, not personal advice. It combines custody-bank fundamentals, rate and market context, technical confirmation, and predefined invalidation levels.
Watch for BNY to hold above the $154 to $156 support zone and to build volume on a move toward the $163.77 high, while revenue growth, EPS revisions, AUC/A, and capital return remain supportive.
A daily close below the 20-day moving average near $156 or a failed attempt at the 52-week high should reduce setup confidence.
If BNY pulls back toward $147 to $149 without a new operating, regulatory, or market shock, compare the price reaction with custody-bank peers, rates, client activity, and buyback pace.
Do not treat the pullback as benign if price closes below the 50-day moving average or if Q3 data shows weaker revenue, a Q3 tough comp, or capital return.
Track AUC/A, AUM, fee revenue, net interest income, pre-tax margin, ROTCE, CET1 ratio, share count, Pershing growth, securities services revenue, digital asset costs, and operational-risk disclosures.
Position sizing should reflect that BNY is a systemically important financial company with market, rate, operational, cyber, and regulatory risk.
Investment research summary
BNY sells trust, settlement, custody, collateral movement, issuer services, wealth and investment workflows, and liquidity services. Clients pay because financial institutions need safe, regulated, accurate infrastructure at global scale.
The moat is strongest in scale, trust, switching costs, risk controls, operating history, regulatory standing, Pershing and clearance networks, and the depth of BNY client relationships across capital markets.
The thesis fails if a major operational or cyber event breaks client trust, if fee compression outruns scale benefits, if rates cut net interest income, if the Q3 tough comp stalls momentum, or if digital asset investment spends more than it earns.
Robin Vince has focused on simplifying BNY, improving commercial coverage, lowering friction, using AI and platforms, and returning capital. Q2 2026 showed the 14th consecutive quarter of sales growth and a raised 2026 outlook.
BNY benefits from rising global asset pools, ETF and fund complexity, collateral needs, alternative asset administration, institutional outsourcing, and the shift to an always-on digital financial ecosystem. The offset is that custody remains price competitive and heavily regulated.
At about 18.2x trailing EPS, 16.3x forward EPS, and 2.66x book value, BNY is priced as a better-growth custody bank rather than a cheap recovery story. Margin of safety depends on sustained earnings growth and avoiding a multiple reset.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ticker change | Common stock ticker changed from BK to BNY effective May 21, 2026 | BNY ticker-change press release | August 2, 2026 |
| BNY quote reference | $156.33 quoted for BNY at the July 31, 2026 close | StockAnalysis.com and Barchart BNY quotes | August 1, 2026 |
| Market capitalization verification | $106.07 billion calculated from $156.33 x 678.50 million shares, matching the reported market cap with 0.00% deviation | Pineify financial_rigor.py market cap verification | August 2, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding | 678.50 million shares, down 3.97% year over year | StockAnalysis.com share statistics | August 1, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 EPS and revenue | $2.45 EPS up 27% and $5.7 billion revenue up 13% year over year | BNY Q2 2026 earnings release | July 15, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 operating metrics | Pre-tax margin 40%, return on tangible common equity 31%, about 600 bps of positive operating leverage | BNY Q2 2026 earnings call | July 15, 2026 |
| AUC/A and AUM | $62.6 trillion AUC/A up 12% and $2.2 trillion AUM up 6% year over year | BNY Q2 2026 earnings call | July 15, 2026 |
| 2026 financial outlook | Revenue up 10-11%, net interest income up 12-13%, expenses up 6-7%, about 400 bps of positive operating leverage | BNY Q2 2026 earnings call updated outlook | July 15, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 capital and returns | CET1 ratio 11%, $1.5 billion returned to common shareholders in Q2, quarterly dividend raised 19% to $0.63 | BNY Q2 2026 earnings call | July 15, 2026 |
| FY2025 revenue and EPS | $20.08 billion revenue and $7.50 adjusted EPS for fiscal 2025 | StockAnalysis.com financial forecast | August 1, 2026 |
| TTM valuation metrics | TTM EPS $8.57, PE 18.25x, forward PE 16.28x, PB 2.66x, PEG 0.93 | StockAnalysis.com statistics and financial_rigor.py verification | August 1, 2026 |
| Book value verification | Book value per share $58.82, verified as PB 2.66x at $156.33 | StockAnalysis.com balance sheet and financial_rigor.py | August 1, 2026 |
| Dividend plan | Quarterly common dividend increased 19% to $0.63 per share, about a 1.61% forward yield at $156.33 | BNY investor relations press releases and financial_rigor.py | August 2, 2026 |
| Technical moving averages | 5-day $155.83, 20-day $155.88, 50-day $147.99, 100-day $137.47, 200-day $126.33 | Barchart BNY technical analysis and StockAnalysis.com | July 31, 2026 |
| Technical momentum | 14-day RSI near 55.9 and 14-day ADX near 29.6 | Barchart BNY technical analysis | July 31, 2026 |
| 52-week range | $98.40 to $163.77, with a 52-week price change of +52.82% | StockAnalysis.com statistics | August 1, 2026 |
| Analyst consensus | Buy with an average target of $166.57 across 15 analysts, low $135, median $173.50, high $184 | StockAnalysis.com forecast and S&P Global analyst ratings | July 22, 2026 |
| Analyst rating mix, July 2026 | 6 Strong Buy, 3 Buy, 5 Hold, 1 Sell out of 15 analysts | StockAnalysis.com forecast recommendation trends | July 22, 2026 |
| Recent analyst target updates | Argus $180, BofA $175, Citi $172, Evercore ISI $158, Truist $178, Barclays $178, Keefe Bruyette $177, Goldman Sachs $177, RBC $168, Wells Fargo $162, Morgan Stanley $151 | StockAnalysis.com forecast latest forecasts and TipRanks | July 22, 2026 |
| 2026 and 2027 consensus estimates | FY2026 revenue estimate $22.25B with EPS $9.24, FY2027 revenue $23.25B with EPS $10.23 | StockAnalysis.com forecast financial forecast | July 22, 2026 |
This BNY AI stock analysis is an informational research tool, not investment advice, a recommendation, or a promise of future performance. Forecast scenarios are based on available public data as of August 2, 2026 and may be wrong if earnings, rates, regulation, market values, client activity, or valuation multiples change.
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