The Cheesecake Factory Incorporated research snapshot
CAKE AI stock analysis as of the August 4, 2026 data cutoff reads The Cheesecake Factory Incorporated as a high-quality casual dining operator that just reported record second quarter results and is now trading at an all-time high. CAKE closed around $103.77 on August 3, 2026, after rising roughly 91% year to date, with a market capitalization near $5.16 billion. The July 28, 2026 Q2 report beat expectations with revenue of $1.03 billion against a consensus of about $999 million, adjusted EPS of $1.44 against a consensus of $1.18, and a 5.8% comparable restaurant sales gain at The Cheesecake Factory. The main question is whether the stock, which now trades above the average analyst target of about $90.80, has priced in the improvement. This page is informational research, not investment advice.
Current price
$103.77
Market cap
$5.16 billion, verified as $103.77 x 49.685 million shares with a 0.08% deviation from the reported figure
AI score
67 / 100
Rating
Record Q2 results and real momentum, but the stock trades above the average analyst target with limited margin of safety
Trend status
Bullish trend at an all-time high with overbought momentum (RSI near 85)
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | CAKE runs 370 full-service restaurants, roughly 218 under The Cheesecake Factory brand, 47 under North Italia, and 105 under other Fox Restaurant Concepts brands, plus two bakery production facilities. Q2 fiscal 2026 revenue topped $1.03 billion with Cheesecake Factory comparable sales up 5.8% year over year. | Medium-high |
| Moat | Brand recognition built over nearly five decades, a menu with more than 200 items that is expensive to replicate, industry-leading average unit volumes around $11 million, and prime real estate form the competitive edge. Customer switching costs are low, but brand habit and location convenience create real stickiness. | Medium |
| Management | Founder David Overton remains CEO. Management delivered a record Q2, raised the quarterly dividend to $0.30, plans 26 new restaurants for 2026, and continues buybacks. The main governance concern is succession given the founder age, and the CFO sold shares worth over $6.8 million in early August 2026. | Medium |
| Financial trend | TTM revenue reached about $3.877 billion, up 5.66%, and TTM net income was about $178.62 million, cross-validated with 0.02% and 0.00% deviations between Google Finance and StockAnalysis. Q2 marked the first quarter with revenue above $1 billion. | High |
| Valuation | At $103.77 the exact check shows about 28.12x trailing EPS, 22.53x forward earnings, 11.25x book value, 29.90x free cash flow, and 1.33x sales. The stock trades above the $90.80 average analyst target, so the multiple prices in continued momentum. | Medium-low |
| Technical trend | Strong uptrend with price above the 5-day, 20-day, 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day moving averages, but 14-day RSI near 85 and ADX near 54 show the move is overbought and extended after a near doubling year to date. | Medium |
| Risk level | The thesis fails if casual dining loses share to fast casual, labor or food costs compress margins, consumer spending weakens, the overbought technical position reverses sharply, or the valuation de-rates back toward the historical mid-teens multiple. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | High confidence for reported Q2 results, quote math, market cap, and cross-validated TTM financials. Lower confidence for forward returns because the price sits above the analyst consensus target and the chart is overbought. | Medium-high |
| Investment certainty | Low-Medium. The business is improving and momentum is real, but the stock already trades at a premium to analyst targets, so the margin of safety is thin and position timing matters. | Low-Medium |
CAKE AI stock forecast
The CAKE AI stock forecast is a scenario range, not a guaranteed target. Around the $103.77 August 3, 2026 reference price, a three-year financial_rigor.py sensitivity using the implied forward EPS of about $4.61 with 14%, 9%, and 2% annual growth and 26x, 21x, and 16x exit P/E multiples produced mechanical reference values near $177.60, $125.40, and $78.30. These are model outputs, not promises. The near-term path depends on whether traffic growth and margins continue to support the premium and whether the overbought chart resolves by continuing higher or mean reverting toward the $90.80 consensus target.
$150 to $180
More likely if The Cheesecake Factory sustains positive comparable sales, the loyalty program and digital engagement keep lifting traffic, margins expand from operating leverage and menu innovation, the 26 planned 2026 openings execute, and the stock reclaims and holds above the $104.77 all-time high with volume confirmation.
$110 to $135
More likely if revenue grows at a mid single digit to high single digit pace, margins hold near current levels, earnings grow at the consensus forecast near 13% to 14% per year, and the stock works through its overbought reading while consolidating around the consensus target and forward multiple.
$70 to $90
More likely if consumer spending weakens, labor or food costs compress margins, casual dining traffic decelerates, comparable sales growth fades from the 5.8% Q2 pace, the stock breaks below the $86.92 twenty day average, and the valuation de-rates toward the $60 to $76 analyst low targets.
CAKE AI technical analysis
CAKE AI technical analysis starts from the $103.77 reference price on August 3, 2026, near the all-time high of $104.77. Price sits above the 5-day $99.20, 20-day $86.92, 50-day $77.74, 100-day $68.42, and 200-day $61.48 moving averages, but 14-day RSI near 85 and ADX near 54 show a strong yet overbought trend after the stock roughly doubled year to date. Because this static page does not fetch request-time chart data, confirm all levels with a live chart before use.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $103.77 | StockAnalysis and Google Finance quotes around August 3, 2026, near the all-time high of $104.77. |
| Near support | $99.20 to $101.42 | The 5-day moving average near $99.20 and the August 3 reference close near $101.42 form the first support zone. |
| Secondary support | $86.92 | The 20-day moving average near $86.92 marks the next support level after a pullback. |
| Deeper support | $77.74 to $77.76 | The 50-day moving average near $77.74 is the medium-term trend reference after the recent run. |
| Resistance | $104.77 to $110 | The all-time high near $104.77 is the immediate resistance, with the $110 high analyst target above it. |
| 200-day moving average | $61.48 | The 200-day moving average is a long-term reference well below price, confirming the strength of the uptrend. |
| Momentum | RSI-14 near 85, ADX-14 near 54 | Both readings are extreme. RSI above 70 signals overbought conditions and ADX above 40 signals a strong trend, which can extend but is prone to sharp reversals. |
| Volume | Average near 1.60M, 20-day average about 1.70M | Volume has been elevated since the July 28 earnings report. Watch for volume divergence on any rally attempt. |
| Volatility | 14-day ATR about $3.43, 14-day historic volatility near 53% | Volatility is above average, which is normal for a stock near an all-time high after a large run. |
| Invalidation | Sustained close below $86.92 | A decisive close below the 20-day moving average would break the short-term trend and signal a pullback toward the 50-day average. |
CAKE AI trading strategy
The CAKE AI trading strategy is a rules-based research framework, not personalized advice. It should be paired with live chart checks, restaurant sales and margin data, earnings dates, position sizing, and a defined loss limit, because the stock is overbought and can move sharply on earnings and consumer spending news.
Wait for CAKE to reclaim and hold above the $104.77 all-time high with above-average volume before considering a continuation entry, or enter on a pullback that holds the $99.20 to $101.42 zone with declining volume.
A close back below $86.92, or a failed breakout that rolls over, should invalidate the setup. Use a stop that respects the elevated volatility.
If CAKE extends into the $104.77 to $110 zone without a new fundamental catalyst, treat the move as possibly overextended relative to the $90.80 consensus target. Wait for a pullback toward the 20-day or 50-day moving average before considering a position.
Do not average down without a predefined maximum loss. Reassess if the stock breaks below $86.92 or if restaurant fundamentals deteriorate.
Track the metrics that matter most for casual dining: Cheesecake Factory comparable sales, traffic, labor cost as a percentage of revenue, unit-level margins, new restaurant openings, and loyalty program adoption.
Reduce confidence when price moves on momentum without matching traffic or margin evidence. The next earnings report is expected around October 27, 2026.
Investment research summary
Customers pay The Cheesecake Factory for a consistent, indulgent dining experience with a menu of more than 200 items, generous portions, and signature cheesecakes at a mid-priced casual dining point. The company earns revenue when guests dine in, order to-go or delivery, and buy cheesecakes and baked goods through retail, licensing, and third-party bakery customers.
Brand recognition built over nearly five decades, menu complexity that is expensive to replicate, industry-leading average unit volumes around $11 million, and prime real estate create moderate competitive advantages. Switching costs are low, but brand habit and location convenience provide stickiness.
The failure path starts with consumer spending and traffic. If casual dining loses share to fast casual, labor or food costs outrun menu prices, the economy cools and guests trade down, the loyalty program fails to lift repeat visits, or the overbought stock de-rates back to historical multiples, the premium could compress sharply from an all-time high.
Founder David Overton has led the company since 1978. The team delivered a record Q2, raised the dividend 8.33% to $1.20 annualized, plans 26 new restaurants in 2026, and continues buybacks. The main risk is succession given the founder age, and the CFO sold shares worth over $6.8 million in early August 2026.
Casual dining is a mature industry with modest long-term growth tied to population and disposable income. The segment continues to face share pressure from fast casual and quick service, but CAKE leads the category in average unit volumes and is investing in digital ordering, loyalty, and menu innovation to defend traffic.
At $103.77, the stock trades near 28x trailing earnings, 22.5x forward earnings, and 29.9x free cash flow, above the $90.80 average analyst target. The improving fundamentals support a re-rating, but the margin of safety at an all-time high with an RSI near 85 is thin.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| CAKE reference price | $103.77 on August 3, 2026, near the $104.77 all-time high | StockAnalysis and Google Finance quote snapshots | August 4, 2026 |
| Market capitalization | $5.16 billion, verified as $103.77 x 49.685M shares with 0.08% deviation | financial_rigor.py market cap verification | August 4, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding | 49.69 million, cross-validated across Google Finance, StockAnalysis, and Barchart within 0.01% deviation | financial_rigor.py cross-validation | August 4, 2026 |
| Revenue TTM | Approximately $3.877 billion, cross-validated between Google Finance and StockAnalysis with 0.02% deviation | financial_rigor.py cross-validation | August 4, 2026 |
| Net income TTM | Approximately $178.62 million, cross-validated with 0.00% deviation | financial_rigor.py cross-validation | August 4, 2026 |
| Q2 fiscal 2026 revenue | $1.03 billion, beat consensus of about $999 million by roughly 3% | The Cheesecake Factory Q2 2026 earnings release and TheFly summary | July 28, 2026 |
| Q2 fiscal 2026 EPS | Adjusted EPS $1.44, beat consensus of $1.18 by about 22%; record quarter with revenue above $1 billion and 24% EPS growth | The Cheesecake Factory Q2 2026 earnings release and StockAnalysis transcript | July 28, 2026 |
| Comparable restaurant sales | The Cheesecake Factory comparable sales up 5.8% year over year in Q2 fiscal 2026 | The Cheesecake Factory Q2 2026 earnings release | July 28, 2026 |
| FY2025 revenue and net income | $3.752 billion revenue, up 4.75% year over year; $148.43 million net income, down 5.33% | StockAnalysis income statement | August 4, 2026 |
| P/E ratio (TTM) | 28.12x via financial_rigor.py, 28.14x on StockAnalysis | financial_rigor.py valuation verification | August 4, 2026 |
| Forward P/E | 22.53x, implying forward EPS near $4.61 | StockAnalysis statistics | August 4, 2026 |
| Free cash flow TTM | About $172.32 million, or $3.47 per share, on operating cash flow of $319.09 million and capex of $146.77 million | StockAnalysis cash flow statement | August 4, 2026 |
| Balance sheet | Cash $235.09 million; total debt $2.142 billion; net debt about $1.91 billion; book value per share $9.22 | StockAnalysis balance sheet | August 4, 2026 |
| Dividend | $1.20 annualized ($0.30 quarterly), raised 8.33% year over year, yield 1.16%, ex-dividend date August 11, 2026 | Google Finance and StockAnalysis dividend data | August 4, 2026 |
| 52-week range | $43.07 to $104.77, up about 67% over the trailing 52 weeks | StockAnalysis and Google Finance market data | August 4, 2026 |
| Technical snapshot | 5-day $99.20, 20-day $86.92, 50-day $77.74, 100-day $68.42, 200-day $61.48; RSI-14 near 85; ADX-14 near 54 | Barchart and StockAnalysis technical data | August 4, 2026 |
| Short interest | 8.91 million shares, 17.93% of shares outstanding, 19.51% of float, 6.40 days to cover | StockAnalysis short selling statistics | August 4, 2026 |
| Analyst consensus | Hold from 19 analysts; average target $90.80, about 12.5% below the current price; consensus revenue growth 7.45% and EPS growth 13.65% over three years | StockAnalysis forecast page | August 4, 2026 |
| Recent analyst target updates | Argus raised to $110 Buy; Citi $104 Buy; Oppenheimer $101 Outperform; BofA $98 Neutral; Mizuho and Stephens $93; JPM $92 Hold; Wells Fargo and Baird $90 Hold; Jefferies downgraded to Hold $88; Morgan Stanley upgraded to Equal Weight $80; UBS Sell $60 | StockAnalysis forecast page and news feed | July 30, 2026 |
| Three-scenario model | Bull $177.60, base $125.40, bear $78.30 reference values over three years using $4.61 forward EPS with 14%, 9%, and 2% growth and 26x, 21x, and 16x exit P/E | financial_rigor.py exact scenario calculation using StockAnalysis inputs | August 4, 2026 |
This CAKE AI stock analysis page is an informational research tool only. It is not investment advice, a recommendation, or a promise of future returns. Forecast scenarios are based on available data as of August 4, 2026, may be incomplete, and can be wrong if new filings, market prices, company events, restaurant traffic, or macro conditions change. Restaurant industry data is inherently forward-looking and subject to consumer spending trends.
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