Texas Roadhouse, Inc. research snapshot
TXRH AI stock analysis currently reads Texas Roadhouse as a high-quality casual dining compounder with durable traffic momentum, strong comparable sales, disciplined capital allocation, and an earnings base that is still growing. At the July 31, 2026 close near $205.44, TXRH trades around 32.8x trailing EPS and about 37.4x trailing free cash flow per share, near the top of its 52-week range and above the 50-day and 200-day moving averages. The TXRH AI stock forecast therefore depends on second-quarter results due August 6, 2026, plus same-store sales, beef and labor inflation, restaurant margins, unit growth, franchise acquisitions, and whether investors keep paying a premium multiple near record prices. This page is informational only and is not investment advice.
Current price
$205.44
Market cap
$13.50 billion verified market cap
AI score
70 / 100
Rating
High-quality casual dining compounder with durable traffic momentum, but the premium valuation near all-time highs leaves a thin margin of safety
Trend status
Constructive but extended: trading well above the 50-day and 200-day moving averages and near the 52-week high around $210 after a strong July rally
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Texas Roadhouse runs a scaled casual dining system across Texas Roadhouse, Bubba's 33, and Jaggers, with high average unit volumes, traffic-led comps, and a guest value proposition built on steak dinners and service. Q1 2026 company comparable sales rose 7.1% with 4.5% traffic growth. | High |
| Moat | The moat is moderate to strong for casual dining: brand loyalty, operator culture, site selection, purchasing scale, and high average unit volumes matter, but consumer switching costs remain low versus other restaurants. | Medium-high |
| Management | CEO Jerry Morgan, appointed in 2021 after founder Kent Taylor, has continued unit growth, franchise acquisitions, dividends, buybacks, and an operator-first culture, with a 2026 outlook of positive comps, 5% to 6% store week growth, and roughly $400 million capex. | Medium-high |
| Financial trend | FY2025 revenue rose 9.4% to $5.878 billion while net income fell 6.5% to $405.6 million under commodity pressure. Q1 2026 revenue rose 12.8% to $1.633 billion, comps rose 7.1% with 4.5% traffic growth, diluted EPS rose 9.6% to $1.87, and the first five weeks of Q2 2026 ran up 6.5%. | High |
| Valuation | At $205.44, TXRH trades near 32.8x trailing EPS of $6.26, 37.4x free cash flow per share of about $5.49, 8.9x book value per share near $23.05, and a 1.46% dividend yield, with average analyst targets near $200 to $201 sitting slightly below the market price. | High |
| Technical trend | The stock closed near $205.44 on July 31, 2026, above the 50-day moving average near $184.40 and the 200-day average near $175.61, with the 52-week high near $210.24 as nearby resistance and an RSI near 65. | Medium |
| Risk level | Key risks are beef and commodity inflation, wage inflation, softer guest traffic, restaurant margin compression, competition, lease-related leverage, and multiple compression from an expensive valuation near all-time highs. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | Descriptive confidence is high because the company Q1 2026 and FY2025 releases, SEC filings, and multi-source market data align on revenue, earnings, EPS, share count, cash, and market-cap math. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | Texas Roadhouse is a well-run restaurant operator, but the equity still depends on consumer spending, food costs, labor availability, and investors continuing to award a premium multiple near record prices. | Medium |
TXRH AI stock forecast
The TXRH AI stock forecast uses scenario math around the $205.44 quote reference, TTM EPS of $6.26, and a three-year earnings multiple framework. The model produced a bearish area near $120, a base area near $199, and a bullish area near $281 before dividends, and the Q2 2026 report on August 6, 2026 will reset the near-term inputs.
$270 to $290
More likely if Q2 2026 comps stay strong, traffic keeps growing, commodity inflation moderates toward the low end of 6% to 7% guidance, unit growth and franchise acquisitions compound earnings near 12%, and investors keep paying around 32x earnings for durable restaurant growth.
$190 to $210
More likely if EPS compounds near 7%, store weeks grow 5% to 6%, comps stay positive, restaurant margin holds near 16% under 6% to 7% commodity inflation, and the market values TXRH around 26x earnings.
$110 to $130
More likely if guest traffic softens, beef or labor costs pressure restaurant margin, average check growth fails to offset inflation, or the market re-rates TXRH closer to a high-teens restaurant multiple after a premium expansion near record highs.
TXRH AI technical analysis
TXRH AI technical analysis is constructive but extended as of the August 3, 2026 cutoff. The stock reference near $205.44 is above the 50-day moving average of about $184.40 and above the 200-day moving average of about $175.61, with strong July momentum, a 52-week range of $153.83 to $210.24, and an RSI near 65.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $205.44 | July 31, 2026 close from multi-source market data (Google Finance, Morningstar, ChartMill, StockAnalysis), used as the August 3, 2026 quote reference for market-cap and valuation checks. |
| Immediate support | $197 to $200 | ChartMill flags support near $197.43. A hold here supports the constructive setup after the July advance. |
| 50-day support | $184 to $187 | Area around the 50-day moving average near $184.40. A hold here would keep the intermediate uptrend intact. |
| Deeper support | $175 to $180 | Area around the 200-day moving average near $175.61. A durable break below this band would weaken the intermediate trend. |
| Near resistance | $210 to $212 | The 52-week high area near $210.24 and the top of the recent trading range. A break on strong volume would extend the uptrend. |
| Higher resistance | $220 to $230 | Extension zone if the stock clears the 52-week high with strong volume and Q2 2026 fundamental confirmation. |
| Moving averages | 50-day about $184.40, 200-day about $175.61 | Technical references from StockAnalysis and ChartMill as of late July 2026. Exact averages shift daily. |
| Momentum | Constructive, RSI near 65 | The stock is in a strong uptrend after a July rally, but an RSI near 65 means the move is approaching overbought territory and has less room before a pause. |
| Volume | Average volume about 0.82 to 1.05 million shares | Watch whether any break above the 52-week high or below support comes with above-average volume, which would give the move more conviction. |
| Volatility | Beta about 0.79 | The stock has moderate market beta, but earnings, guidance, commodity inflation, and consumer data can still create sharp moves around the August 6 report. |
| Invalidation | Sustained close below $175 | A durable break below the 200-day band would weaken the setup and shift attention from momentum to valuation and consumer-cycle risk. |
TXRH AI trading strategy
The TXRH AI trading strategy below is a rules-based research framework, not personalized advice. It combines comparable sales, traffic, commodity inflation, restaurant margin, unit growth, valuation, and technical invalidation levels, and it should be updated with Q2 2026 results on August 6, 2026.
Look for TXRH to hold above the $197 to $200 band and push through the 52-week high near $210 while Q2 comps, traffic, restaurant margin dollars, and unit openings remain constructive.
A failed hold above the $197 support or a close below $180 should reduce setup confidence, especially if it arrives with softer traffic or higher food-cost commentary.
If TXRH pulls back toward the $184 to $187 band or the 200-day area near $175 while comps remain positive and commodity inflation stays near management guidance, compare the lower price with updated EPS, FCF yield, and peer restaurant multiples.
Do not treat a lower price as automatically attractive if the decline is tied to falling guest counts, beef cost spikes, wage pressure, or multiple compression across casual dining, and remember the stock already prices strong execution.
Track comparable restaurant sales, traffic versus check, restaurant margin percent and dollars, commodity inflation, wage inflation, store week growth, average weekly sales, to-go mix, capex, franchise acquisitions, dividends, and buybacks.
Position sizing should reflect that restaurants are discretionary businesses and that TXRH already trades at a premium multiple near all-time highs, so modest traffic or margin disappointment can move the stock quickly.
Investment research summary
Customers pay Texas Roadhouse because the brand offers value-oriented full-service steak dinners, high energy service, and a consistent guest experience. Shareholders are paid from repeat traffic, unit growth, franchise acquisitions, restaurant-level cash generation, dividends, and buybacks.
TXRH has brand recognition, operator culture, high average unit volumes, site selection skill, and purchasing scale across a multi-brand casual dining system. The moat is not based on high consumer switching costs, so execution on food quality, service, and value must be defended every quarter.
The thesis fails if guest traffic weakens, beef or labor inflation outpaces pricing power, restaurant margins compress, new units or franchise deals earn lower returns, or investors refuse to keep paying a premium multiple near all-time highs.
CEO Jerry Morgan has maintained the founder-led operator culture while expanding company restaurants, acquiring franchise units, paying a rising dividend, and repurchasing shares. Key-person risk is moderate because the operating playbook is institutional, but brand culture still matters.
Casual dining benefits when consumers seek experience and value away from home, but it competes with quick service, grocery, delivery, and other full-service concepts. Long-term winners need traffic growth, labor productivity, menu value, and cost control without damaging the guest experience.
The current price near $205.44 embeds a premium operator assumption at the top of the 52-week range. The three-scenario model shows limited base-case upside if earnings compound modestly and the multiple compresses toward the mid-20s, so margin of safety narrows if traffic, margins, or Q2 2026 results disappoint.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| TXRH quote reference | $205.44 at the July 31, 2026 close | Google Finance, Morningstar, ChartMill, and StockAnalysis market data | August 3, 2026 |
| Market capitalization verification | $13.50 billion calculated from $205.44 x 65.73 million shares, compared with $13.50 billion multi-source market cap, 0.03% variance | Google Finance, Morningstar, and Pineify financial_rigor.py | August 3, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding | 65.73 million shares outstanding, compared with 65,729,615 shares on the Q1 2026 Form 10-Q cover filed May 8, 2026 | SEC Form 10-Q and multi-source market statistics | August 3, 2026 |
| Fiscal 2025 results | Revenue $5.878 billion up 9.4%, net income $405.6 million down 6.5%, diluted EPS $6.10 down 5.8%, same-store sales up 4.9% including 2.8% traffic growth | Texas Roadhouse FY2025 fourth-quarter and full-year results release | August 3, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 results | Revenue $1.633 billion up 12.8%, net income $123.4 million up 8.6%, diluted EPS $1.87 up 9.6%, company comps up 7.1% with 4.5% traffic growth, restaurant margin 16.3%, restaurant margin per store week $28,203 | Texas Roadhouse Q1 2026 earnings release | August 3, 2026 |
| TTM revenue and net income cross-check | TTM revenue (twelve months ending March 31, 2026) of $6.06 billion and TTM net income of $415.3 million align across Macrotrends, StockAnalysis, and ChartMill | Macrotrends, StockAnalysis, ChartMill, and Pineify financial_rigor.py | August 3, 2026 |
| Cash, debt, and free cash flow | Q1 2026 cash and cash equivalents $214.6 million; StockAnalysis reports about $1.05 billion total debt, net cash of about -$840 million, and TTM free cash flow of $360.6 million, with FCF per share about $5.49 | Texas Roadhouse Q1 2026 balance sheet and StockAnalysis statistics | August 3, 2026 |
| Capital allocation and 2026 outlook | Q1 2026 capex $80.2 million, franchise acquisitions $71.8 million, dividends $49.4 million, buybacks $28.2 million; 2026 guide includes positive comps, 5% to 6% store week growth, 6% to 7% commodity inflation, and about $400 million capex; Q2 first five weeks comps up 6.5% | Texas Roadhouse Q1 2026 earnings release | August 3, 2026 |
| Upcoming Q2 2026 results | Q2 2026 earnings scheduled for August 6, 2026 after market close, with consensus estimates near $1.82 EPS and $1.67 billion revenue | Google Finance and StockAnalysis | August 3, 2026 |
| Valuation ratios | 32.82x trailing EPS, 37.42x free cash flow per share, 8.91x book value per share, 1.46% dividend yield on $3.00 annualized dividend | Pineify financial_rigor.py valuation check using market and company inputs | August 3, 2026 |
| Analyst targets | Consensus rating Buy, average price target about $200 to $201, with reported targets ranging from $175 to $234 across roughly 18 to 35 analysts | Google Finance, StockAnalysis, and ChartMill | August 3, 2026 |
| Technical references | 50-day moving average about $184.40, 200-day moving average about $175.61, RSI near 65, 52-week range $153.83 to $210.24, beta about 0.79, average volume about 0.82 to 1.05 million shares | StockAnalysis, ChartMill, Google Finance, and Morningstar technical and market references | August 3, 2026 |
| Morningstar view | Morningstar reports TXRH trading at a premium to its fair value estimate as of July 8, 2026, in a report titled Texas Roadhouse: Strong Value Proposition Continues to Lure Diners, but Shares Look Expensive | Morningstar | August 3, 2026 |
This TXRH AI stock analysis is an informational research tool only. It is not investment advice, a recommendation, or a guarantee of future performance. Forecast ranges are scenarios based on available data as of August 3, 2026 and can be wrong if fundamentals, valuation multiples, interest rates, inflation, or market conditions change.
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