Texas Roadhouse, Inc. research snapshot
TXRH AI stock analysis currently reads Texas Roadhouse as a high-quality casual dining compounder with multi-year comparable sales strength, traffic-led growth, disciplined capital allocation, and a premium earnings multiple. At the July 10, 2026 close near $189.50, TXRH trades around 30.3x trailing EPS and about 34.5x free cash flow per share, so the TXRH AI stock forecast depends on same-store sales, beef and labor inflation, restaurant margins, unit openings, franchise acquisitions, and whether investors keep paying a premium multiple for execution quality. This page is informational only and is not investment advice.
Current price
$189.50
Market cap
$12.46 billion verified market cap
AI score
73 / 100
Rating
High-quality casual dining operator with multi-year traffic strength, unit growth, and premium valuation risk
Trend status
Constructive, trading above the 50-day and 200-day moving averages after a recent golden cross with room under the 52-week high
Data cutoff (updated weekly)
July 12, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Texas Roadhouse runs a scaled casual dining system across Texas Roadhouse, Bubba's 33, and Jaggers, with high average unit volumes, traffic-led comps, and a guest value proposition built on steak dinners and service. | High |
| Moat | The moat is moderate to strong for casual dining: brand loyalty, operator culture, site selection, supply chain, and high AUVs matter, but consumer switching costs remain low versus other restaurants. | Medium-high |
| Management | CEO Jerry Morgan, appointed in 2021 after founder Kent Taylor, has continued unit growth, franchise acquisitions, dividends, buybacks, and an operator-first culture focused on traffic and guest experience. | Medium-high |
| Financial trend | FY2025 revenue rose 9.4% to $5.878 billion while net income fell 6.5% to $405.6 million under commodity pressure. Q1 2026 revenue rose 12.8% to $1.633 billion, comps rose 7.1% with 4.5% traffic growth, and diluted EPS rose 9.6% to $1.87. | High |
| Valuation | At $189.50, TXRH trades near 30.27x trailing EPS of $6.26, 34.52x free cash flow per share of about $5.49, 8.21x book value per share near $23.08, and a 1.58% dividend yield. | High |
| Technical trend | The stock is above the 50-day moving average near $186.64 and above the 200-day average near $173.19, after a July 2026 golden cross, while the 52-week high near $197 remains nearby resistance. | Medium |
| Risk level | Key risks are beef and commodity inflation, wage inflation, weaker guest traffic, restaurant margin compression, competition, lease-related leverage, and multiple compression if comps cool or guidance disappoints. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | Descriptive confidence is high because the company Q1 2026 and FY2025 releases, SEC share count, and multi-source market data align on the main financial base. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | Texas Roadhouse is a well-run restaurant operator, but the equity still depends on consumer spending, food costs, labor availability, and investors continuing to award a premium multiple. | Medium |
TXRH AI stock forecast
The TXRH AI stock forecast uses scenario math around the $189.50 quote reference, TTM EPS of $6.26, and a three-year earnings multiple framework. The audited model produced a bearish area near $120, a base area near $199, and a bullish area near $281 before dividends.
$270 to $290
More likely if traffic stays positive, comps remain mid-single digit or better, commodity inflation moderates toward the low end of guidance, unit growth and franchise acquisitions compound earnings near 12%, and investors pay around 32x earnings for durable restaurant growth.
$190 to $210
More likely if EPS compounds near 7%, store weeks grow 5% to 6%, comps stay positive with some price and traffic mix, restaurant margin holds under 6% to 7% commodity inflation, and the market values TXRH around 26x earnings.
$110 to $130
More likely if guest traffic softens, beef or labor costs pressure restaurant margin, average check growth fails to offset inflation, or the market re-rates TXRH closer to a high-teens restaurant multiple.
TXRH AI technical analysis
TXRH AI technical analysis is constructive as of the July 12, 2026 cutoff. The stock reference near $189.50 is above the 50-day moving average of about $186.64 and above the 200-day moving average of about $173.19, with a recent golden cross and nearby resistance at the 52-week high near $197.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $189.50 | July 10, 2026 close from multi-source market data (Google Finance, Morningstar, Robinhood), used as the July 12, 2026 quote reference for market-cap and valuation checks. |
| Immediate support | $180 to $187 | Area around the 50-day average near $186.64. A hold here would support the constructive setup after the golden cross. |
| Deeper support | $170 to $175 | Area around the 200-day average near $173.19. A durable break here would weaken the intermediate uptrend. |
| Near resistance | $195 to $197 | The 52-week high area near $197.00 and the upper end of the recent trading range. |
| Higher resistance | $200 to $210 | Psychological round-number zone and extension area if the stock clears the 52-week high on strong volume and fundamental confirmation. |
| Moving averages | 50-day about $186.64, 200-day about $173.19 | Technical references from market data sources around early to mid July 2026. Exact averages shift daily. |
| Momentum | Golden cross in early July 2026 | The 50-day moving average crossed above the 200-day average, supporting a constructive intermediate trend if price holds above both averages. |
| Volume | Average volume about 1.18 to 1.21 million shares | Watch whether any break below support comes with above-average volume, which would imply broader institutional selling. |
| Volatility | Beta about 0.78 | The stock has moderate market beta, but earnings, guidance, commodity inflation, and consumer data can still create sharp moves. |
| Invalidation | Sustained close below $170 | A durable break below the 200-day band would weaken the setup and shift attention from traffic momentum to consumer-cycle and valuation risk. |
TXRH AI trading strategy
The TXRH AI trading strategy below is a rules-based research framework, not personalized advice. It combines same-store sales, traffic, commodity inflation, restaurant margin, unit growth, valuation, and technical invalidation levels.
Look for TXRH to hold above the $180 to $187 band and push through $195 to $197 while company comps, traffic, restaurant margin dollars, and unit openings remain constructive.
A failed hold above the 50-day average or a close below $180 should reduce setup confidence, especially if it arrives with weaker traffic or higher food-cost commentary.
If TXRH pulls back toward $170 to $175 while comps remain positive and commodity inflation stays near management guidance, compare the lower price with updated EPS, FCF yield, and peer restaurant multiples.
Do not treat a lower price as automatically attractive if the decline is tied to falling guest counts, beef cost spikes, wage pressure, or multiple compression across casual dining.
Track comparable restaurant sales, traffic versus check, restaurant margin percent and dollars, commodity inflation, wage inflation, store week growth, average weekly sales, to-go mix, capex, franchise acquisitions, dividends, and buybacks.
Position sizing should reflect that restaurants are discretionary businesses and that TXRH already trades at a premium multiple, so modest traffic or margin disappointment can move the stock quickly.
Investment research summary
Customers pay Texas Roadhouse because the brand offers value-oriented full-service steak dinners, high energy service, and a consistent guest experience. Shareholders are paid from repeat traffic, unit growth, franchise acquisitions, restaurant-level cash generation, dividends, and buybacks.
TXRH has brand recognition, operator culture, high AUVs, site selection skill, and purchasing scale for a multi-brand casual dining system. The moat is not based on high consumer switching costs, so execution on food quality, service, and value must be defended every quarter.
The thesis fails if guest traffic weakens, beef or labor inflation outpaces pricing power, restaurant margins compress, new units or franchise deals earn lower returns, or investors refuse to keep paying a premium multiple for casual dining growth.
CEO Jerry Morgan has maintained the founder-led operator culture while expanding company restaurants, acquiring franchise units, paying a rising dividend, and repurchasing shares. Key-person risk is moderate because the operating playbook is institutional, but brand culture still matters.
Casual dining benefits when consumers seek experience and value away from home, but it competes with quick service, grocery, delivery, and other full-service concepts. Long-term winners need traffic growth, labor productivity, menu value, and cost control without damaging the guest experience.
Current price embeds a premium operator assumption rather than a distressed restaurant multiple. The three-scenario model shows limited base-case upside if earnings compound modestly and the multiple compresses toward mid-20s, while margin of safety narrows if traffic or margins soften.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| TXRH quote reference | $189.50 at the July 10, 2026 close | Google Finance, Morningstar, and Robinhood market data | July 12, 2026 |
| Market capitalization verification | $12.46 billion calculated from $189.50 x 65.73 million shares, compared with $12.46 billion multi-source market cap, 0.03% variance | Google Finance, Morningstar, and Pineify financial_rigor.py | July 12, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding | 65.73 million shares outstanding, compared with 65,729,615 shares outstanding on April 29, 2026 per SEC 10-Q cover | SEC Form 10-Q and multi-source market statistics | July 12, 2026 |
| Fiscal 2025 results | Revenue $5.878 billion up 9.4%, net income $405.6 million down 6.5%, diluted EPS $6.10 down 5.8%, same-store sales up 4.9% including 2.8% traffic growth | Texas Roadhouse FY2025 fourth-quarter and full-year results release and 2025 annual report | July 12, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 results | Revenue $1.633 billion up 12.8%, net income $123.4 million up 8.6%, diluted EPS $1.87 up 9.6%, company comps up 7.1% with 4.5% traffic growth, restaurant margin 16.3% | Texas Roadhouse Q1 2026 earnings release | July 12, 2026 |
| Revenue and net income cross-check | FY2025 revenue $5.878 billion versus Macrotrends $5.878 billion; FY2025 net income $405.55 million versus Macrotrends $406 million | Company release, Macrotrends, and Pineify financial_rigor.py | July 12, 2026 |
| Cash, leases, and free cash flow | Q1 2026 cash and cash equivalents $214.6 million; StockAnalysis reports about $1.05 billion total debt and TTM free cash flow of $360.64 million | Texas Roadhouse Q1 2026 balance sheet and StockAnalysis statistics | July 12, 2026 |
| Capital allocation and 2026 outlook | Q1 2026 capex $80.2 million, franchise acquisitions $71.8 million, dividends $49.4 million, buybacks $28.2 million; 2026 guide includes positive comps, 5% to 6% store week growth, 6% to 7% commodity inflation, and about $400 million capex | Texas Roadhouse Q1 2026 earnings release | July 12, 2026 |
| Valuation ratios | 30.27x trailing EPS, 34.52x free cash flow per share, 8.21x book value per share, 1.58% dividend yield on $3.00 annualized dividend | Pineify financial_rigor.py valuation check using market and company inputs | July 12, 2026 |
| Technical references | 50-day moving average about $186.64, 200-day moving average about $173.19, 52-week range $153.83 to $197.00, beta about 0.78, average volume about 1.18 million shares | Investing.com, Chartmill, Google Finance, and Morningstar technical and market references | July 12, 2026 |
This TXRH AI stock analysis is an informational research tool only. It is not investment advice, a recommendation, or a guarantee of future performance. Forecast ranges are scenarios based on available data as of July 12, 2026 and can be wrong if fundamentals, valuation multiples, interest rates, inflation, or market conditions change.
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