BRC Inc. research snapshot
BRC AI stock analysis reads BRC Inc. (formerly Black Rifle Coffee Company, NYSE: BRCC) as a small-cap specialty coffee turnaround with improving operations and persistent structural risk. The analysis is not a certain price prediction. At the August 3, 2026 data cutoff, the latest verified reading used here was $1.125 at 11:10 AM EDT, up 9.22% from the $1.030 July 31 close, carrying a market capitalization near $280.69 million, consistent with $1.125 times 249.50 million shares outstanding. The Q1 2026 report, released May 5, 2026, delivered 21% revenue growth to about $109.2 million versus a $97.0 million consensus, adjusted EBITDA of more than $7 million versus under $1 million a year earlier, a return to positive free cash flow of about $6 million, and a guidance raise to at least 8% revenue growth and at least 35% adjusted EBITDA growth for 2026. The stock still trades below its 20-day moving average near $1.14 and its 50-day near $1.28, after falling from a 52-week high of $1.855 in May 2026 to a $0.99 low on July 27, 2026. Craig-Hallum initiated coverage on August 3, 2026 with a Buy rating and a $1.75 target, while the consensus across two analysts sits at Strong Buy with an average target of $2.50. Q2 2026 earnings are scheduled for August 3, 2026 after market close, so the results were not yet available at the time of this reading. This page is informational research and not investment advice.
Current price
$1.125 at the August 3, 2026, 11:10 AM EDT reading, up 9.22% from the $1.030 July 31 close, after opening at $1.100 within a $1.100 to $1.170 day range
Market cap
$280.69 million
AI score
45 / 100
Rating
Speculative turnaround with improving fundamentals and persistent listing and dilution risk
Trend status
Rebounding from the late-July dip near $1.00 but still below the 20-day and 50-day moving averages, with Q2 2026 results scheduled for August 3, 2026 after market close
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | BRC sells premium coffee through DTC subscriptions, wholesale retail, and company-owned stores, and is expanding ready-to-drink coffee and energy. Q1 2026 revenue grew 21% with wholesale up 31.5% and DTC up 7%, but gross margin fell 305 basis points to 33% on coffee costs and non-recurring items. | Medium |
| Moat | The moat is a strong brand tied to the military and conservative consumer demographic, with Nielsen data showing 34.6% growth at more than 2.5x the category rate and share gains in bags and pods. Switching costs are low, network effects are absent, and scale is small versus Starbucks, Keurig, or JM Smucker. | Low |
| Management | Management led by CEO Chris Mondzelewski and Executive Chairman Evan Hafer has cut operating expenses over 8% year over year, expanded wholesale distribution, raised 2026 revenue and adjusted EBITDA guidance, and restored positive free cash flow in Q1 2026. The SPAC legacy, a 40.9% year-over-year rise in shares outstanding, and the approved reverse split authorization are concerns. | Medium |
| Financial trend | Revenue reached $417.52 million TTM with 9.0% growth, Q1 2026 delivered 21% growth and more than $7 million of adjusted EBITDA versus under $1 million a year earlier, positive free cash flow of about $6 million, and management guided to at least 8% revenue growth and at least 35% adjusted EBITDA growth for 2026. | Medium-high |
| Valuation | At about 0.62x to 0.67x sales and a forward PE near 113 with negative trailing earnings, the market prices BRC as a speculative turnaround. The valuation depends almost entirely on the path to consistent profitability, and a PE-based valuation is not meaningful until earnings turn positive. | Medium |
| Technical trend | BRC traded at $1.125 on August 3, 2026 at 11:10 AM EDT, up 9.22% from the $1.030 July 31 close, above its 5-day moving average near $1.05 and its 200-day near $1.11 but below its 20-day near $1.14 and 50-day near $1.28, after falling from $1.855 to $0.99 in the second half of July. | Medium-low |
| Risk level | Key risks are the approved reverse stock split authorization (1:10 to 1:50 at board discretion), the $500 million mixed securities shelf filed March 25, 2026, renewed NYSE compliance risk after the late-July dip below $1.00, negative GAAP earnings, the Kaskela Law investigation announced July 16, 2026, coffee and fuel cost pressure, thin analyst coverage, and very high volatility with 14-day historic volatility near 85%. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | Medium-high for descriptive facts and cross-checked math that matched across StockAnalysis.com, Barchart, the Q1 2026 earnings release, the Q1 2026 call, and the AGM 2026 transcript. Lower for forward return estimates because consensus is thin, Q2 results are pending, and the reverse split and shelf decisions are unresolved. | Medium-high data confidence |
| Investment certainty | Low certainty. BRC is a high-risk turnaround with binary outcomes tied to Q2 2026 results, the reverse split and shelf decisions, and the investigation. The page gives a research framework and scenario ranges, not a buy or sell instruction. | Low |
BRC AI stock forecast
The BRC AI stock forecast uses scenario ranges around the $1.125 August 3, 2026 reading and the FY2026 consensus revenue of $430.85 million because the company is not yet consistently profitable. Applying price-to-sales multiples of about 1.2x to 1.5x to FY2026 revenue implies a bullish area near $2.07 to $2.59, multiples near 0.65x to 0.95x imply a base area near $1.12 to $1.64, and multiples near 0.4x to 0.5x imply a bearish area near $0.69 to $0.86. These are scenarios, not price commitments.
$2.00 to $2.60
More likely if BRC sustains double-digit revenue growth, gross margin recovers toward the 34% to 36% guidance range and the long-term 40% target, adjusted EBITDA exceeds the $29 million outlook, free cash flow stays positive, the board abandons or avoids an aggressive reverse split, and the market re-rates toward 1.2x to 1.5x FY2026 sales.
$1.10 to $1.65
More likely if BRC delivers the at least 8% revenue growth and at least 35% adjusted EBITDA growth guidance, gross margin stabilizes, the stock holds above $1.00, and the multiple stays range-bound near 0.65x to 0.95x FY2026 sales.
$0.60 to $0.90
More likely if growth decelerates, gross margin stays pressured, the company taps the $500 million shelf and dilutes further, the reverse split is executed at an aggressive ratio, the investigation escalates, or renewed NYSE compliance risk pushes the stock back toward the $0.60 52-week low.
BRC AI technical analysis
BRC AI technical analysis is cautiously mixed as of the August 3, 2026 data cutoff. The stock traded at $1.125 at 11:10 AM EDT, up 9.22% from the $1.030 July 31 close, above its 5-day moving average near $1.05 and its 200-day near $1.11 but below its 20-day near $1.14 and 50-day near $1.28, with 14-day RSI near 49 and 14-day ADX near 12.7 signaling weak trend strength. After falling from a 52-week high of $1.855 in May 2026 to a $0.99 low on July 27, 2026, the stock is rebounding but has not yet reclaimed the 20-day and 50-day moving averages. Because this page does not fetch request-time market data, traders should confirm levels on a live chart before acting, especially with Q2 2026 earnings scheduled for August 3, 2026 after market close.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $1.125 | StockAnalysis.com real-time reading at the August 3, 2026, 11:10 AM EDT reading, up 9.22% from the $1.030 July 31 close within a $1.100 to $1.170 day range; the reported $280.69 million market cap matches $1.125 times 249.50 million shares outstanding. |
| 5-day moving average | $1.05 | Barchart reported the 5-day moving average near $1.049 on August 3, 2026, below the current price, signaling short-term momentum is turning up after the late-July dip. |
| Near support | $1.00 to $1.03 | The psychological $1.00 level is also the NYSE minimum price threshold. The stock printed a $0.99 low on July 27, 2026, and closed at $1.030 on July 31, so this zone is the immediate floor. |
| Secondary support | $0.85 to $0.90, then $0.60 | A break below $1.00 would open the path toward the $0.85 to $0.90 area, with the $0.60 all-time low from March 2026 as the final technical floor. |
| Near resistance | $1.14 to $1.17 | Barchart placed the 20-day moving average near $1.139 on August 3, 2026, and the day range high was $1.170, so this is the first overhead zone. |
| Key resistance | $1.28 to $1.30 | Barchart reported the 50-day moving average near $1.279 and StockAnalysis.com near $1.28 on August 3, 2026. A close above this zone would signal a stronger recovery. |
| 100-day moving average | $1.155 | Barchart reported the 100-day moving average near $1.1553 on August 3, 2026, just above the current price and a minor overhead level. |
| 200-day moving average | $1.11 | Barchart reported the 200-day moving average near $1.1145 on August 3, 2026, just below the current price, matching StockAnalysis.com near $1.11. |
| Momentum | RSI near 49, ADX near 12.7 | 14-day RSI was near 49.36 on Barchart and 48.17 on StockAnalysis.com, neutral, and 14-day ADX near 12.65 confirmed a weak, range-bound trend rather than a strong move. |
| Volume | About 544,000 to 559,000 average shares | StockAnalysis.com listed 20-day average volume near 544,037 and Barchart near 559,397 on August 3, 2026, with about 454,601 shares traded by 11:10 AM, useful for checking whether the rebound has conviction. |
| Volatility | Very high, 14-day historic volatility near 85% | Barchart reported 14-day historic volatility near 85.37% and a 14-day ATR of about $0.092, or 8.01%, so position sizing should be very conservative around earnings and news. |
| Invalidation | Close below $1.00, then $0.60 | A daily close below $1.00 would re-open NYSE compliance risk and weaken the recovery. A close below $0.85 or a re-test of $0.60 would invalidate the turnaround setup. |
BRC AI trading strategy
The BRC AI trading strategy is a rules-based framework, not personalized advice. It combines filing-backed business evidence, technical confirmation, position sizing, and clear invalidation levels. Given BRC low liquidity, very high volatility, and pending Q2 2026 results, position size should be very conservative and every entry should be confirmed on a live chart.
Look for BRC to hold above $1.00, reclaim the 20-day moving average near $1.14 with volume, and then clear the 50-day near $1.28 before treating the recovery as confirmed. The Craig-Hallum initiation on August 3, 2026 with a $1.75 target and the path to a multi-bagger referenced in that report are catalysts to watch but not trade signals.
A daily close below $1.00 should reduce confidence. If renewed NYSE compliance risk appears or a reverse split is executed at an aggressive ratio, exit or stand aside.
Q2 2026 results are scheduled for August 3, 2026 after market close. If BRC reports continued revenue acceleration, gross margin recovery, and a maintained or raised outlook, the stock could re-rate; if growth stalls or guidance disappoints, expect a sharp move lower.
Do not build a position ahead of the print solely on hope. Wait for results and guidance to confirm the trend, and set a stop below the $1.00 to $1.03 support zone.
Track quarterly revenue growth, gross margin trend, adjusted EBITDA, free cash flow, share count changes, the reverse split decision, usage of the $500 million shelf, the Kaskela Law investigation, and NYSE listing status.
Reduce or exit if revenue growth decelerates, gross margin stays below the 34% to 36% guidance range, cash burn resumes, the company announces a secondary offering, or the stock closes below $1.00.
Investment research summary
BRC roasts and sells premium coffee to a loyal military and conservative consumer base through DTC subscriptions, wholesale retail, and company-owned stores, and is building ready-to-drink coffee and energy franchises.
The competitive advantage is brand identity and community loyalty in a commodity market, supported by Nielsen share gains and marketing efficiency, but switching costs are low and scale is small versus much larger coffee and beverage players.
The thesis can fail if growth decelerates, gross margin stays pressured by coffee and fuel costs, the company executes a dilutive reverse split or taps the $500 million shelf, NYSE compliance risk returns, the Kaskela Law investigation escalates, or the brand fails to expand beyond its core audience.
Leadership has shown improving execution in 2025-2026, cutting operating expenses, expanding wholesale distribution, raising 2026 guidance, and restoring positive free cash flow in Q1 2026. The SPAC legacy, the 40.9% year-over-year rise in shares outstanding, and the approved reverse split authorization remain concerns.
Specialty coffee is large and growing, and the ready-to-drink and energy segments add optionality, but the category is intensely competitive against Starbucks, Keurig, Dutch Bros, and private labels, with convenience channel softness and elevated coffee and fuel costs as near-term headwinds.
At about 0.62x to 0.67x sales and negative trailing earnings, the stock prices in distress and a recovery bet. A reasonable margin of safety requires conviction that Q1 2026 momentum, adjusted EBITDA, and free cash flow can be sustained without heavy dilution or a compliance event.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| BRCC price | $1.125 at the August 3, 2026, 11:10 AM EDT reading, up 9.22% from the $1.030 July 31 close, after opening at $1.100 within a $1.100 to $1.170 day range | StockAnalysis.com real-time quote | August 3, 2026 |
| Market capitalization | $280.69 million, reported by StockAnalysis.com and verified as $1.125 x 249.50 million shares outstanding with financial_rigor.py | StockAnalysis.com statistics and financial_rigor.py | August 3, 2026 |
| TTM revenue | $417.52 million, up 9.0%, with gross margin near 33.91% and operating margin near -4.27% over the trailing twelve months | StockAnalysis.com financials | August 3, 2026 |
| TTM profitability | Net income of -$9.04 million to common shareholders, or -$0.09 per share, with operating cash flow of $1.10 million and free cash flow of -$2.02 million | StockAnalysis.com statistics and income statement | August 3, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 revenue | About $109.2 million, up 21% year over year versus a $97.0 million consensus, with wholesale up 31.5% and direct-to-consumer up 7% | BRC Q1 2026 earnings release and earnings call via StockAnalysis.com transcript | May 5, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 gross margin | 33%, down 305 basis points year over year, reflecting about 100 basis points of costs from onboarding a new DTC fulfillment provider, about 210 basis points of a one-time non-cash write-down tied to coffee extract, and elevated coffee costs, with the net effect of inflation and tariffs limited to about 20 basis points after pricing | BRC Q1 2026 earnings call | May 5, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 adjusted EBITDA | More than $7 million versus under $1 million a year earlier, an increase of more than eightfold with 570 basis points of margin expansion | BRC Q1 2026 earnings call | May 5, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 free cash flow | About $6 million of free cash flow versus a use of more than $5 million in the prior year period, an improvement of about $11 million, with more than $52 million of total liquidity at quarter end | BRC Q1 2026 earnings call | May 5, 2026 |
| 2026 guidance | Revenue outlook raised to at least 8% growth, about $430 million, and adjusted EBITDA raised to at least 35% growth, about $29 million, with Q2 2026 revenue expected at least 10% year over year and Q2 adjusted EBITDA at least $5 million | BRC Q1 2026 earnings release and earnings call | May 5, 2026 |
| FY2025 results | Revenue of $398.26 million, up 1.73%, with net income of -$11.91 million to common shareholders and free cash flow of -$13.47 million | StockAnalysis.com financials | August 3, 2026 |
| Balance sheet | Cash of $9.97 million, total debt of $61.30 million, net cash of -$51.33 million, total assets of $217.04 million, and common shareholders equity of $46.8 million as of March 31, 2026 | StockAnalysis.com balance sheet | August 3, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding | 249.50 million shares outstanding, up 40.90% year over year, with a current class A share count of 117.00 million and a float of 71.36 million shares | StockAnalysis.com statistics | August 3, 2026 |
| Valuation check | PS ratio 0.62 (reported), about 0.67x on TTM revenue independently computed, forward PE 113.00, forward PS 0.58, PB 2.56, P/TBV 5.52, P/OCF 234.69, EV/Sales 0.74, Altman Z-Score 1.66, and Piotroski F-Score 5 | StockAnalysis.com statistics and financial_rigor.py | August 3, 2026 |
| Analyst consensus | Strong Buy across 2 analysts with an average price target of $2.50, a 122.22% upside from the $1.13 reading | StockAnalysis.com forecast | August 3, 2026 |
| Recent analyst actions | Craig-Hallum initiated with Buy and a $1.75 target on August 3, 2026, citing a path for shares to increase more than four times; D.A. Davidson maintained Buy on July 2, 2026; Telsey Advisory maintained Buy with a $2.50 target on May 5, 2026 | StockAnalysis.com forecast | August 3, 2026 |
| FY2026 and FY2027 consensus | FY2026 revenue of $430.85 million (up 8.18%), FY2027 revenue of $468.30 million (up 8.69%), FY2026 net income near -$1.50 million, FY2027 EPS near $0.03, and FY2026 free cash flow consensus near $27 million | StockAnalysis.com forecast | August 3, 2026 |
| Short interest | 4.67 million shares short, 1.87% of shares outstanding, 6.55% of float, and 5.96 days to cover | StockAnalysis.com statistics | August 3, 2026 |
| Reverse stock split authorization | Shareholders approved a reverse stock split of Class A common stock at a ratio of 1:10 to 1:50 at the board discretion at the May 28, 2026 annual meeting, subject to the boards authority to abandon the amendments | BRC AGM 2026 transcript | May 28, 2026 |
| NYSE compliance | Regained compliance with the NYSE minimum share price requirement on June 2, 2026 after a February 2026 notice, but the stock dipped to a $0.99 low on July 27, 2026, keeping renewed compliance risk in view | Business Wire and Barchart news feed | August 3, 2026 |
| $500 million shelf | Filed a $500 million mixed securities shelf registration on March 25, 2026, creating future dilution risk if the company taps it | StockAnalysis.com filings and TheFly news | August 3, 2026 |
| Shareholder investigation | Kaskela Law LLC announced an investigation of BRC Inc. (BRCC) on July 16, 2026 and encouraged long-term shareholders to contact the firm | Business Wire via StockAnalysis.com news | July 16, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 earnings date | Q2 2026 earnings release and conference call scheduled for August 3, 2026, after market close; results were not yet available at the time of the August 3, 2026 reading | Business Wire announcement July 16, 2026 | July 16, 2026 |
| 52-week range and performance | 52-week range of $0.60 to $1.855, down 31.10% over the trailing 52 weeks, with beta of 1.24 | StockAnalysis.com quote and statistics | August 3, 2026 |
| Technical snapshot | 5-day SMA near $1.05, 20-day SMA near $1.14, 50-day SMA near $1.28, 100-day SMA near $1.16, 200-day SMA near $1.11, 14-day RSI near 49, 14-day ADX near 12.7, and 14-day historic volatility near 85% | Barchart and StockAnalysis.com technical snapshots | August 3, 2026 |
This BRC AI stock analysis is an informational tool for research and education only. It is not investment advice, a recommendation, or a guarantee of future performance. Forecast ranges are scenarios based on available data as of August 3, 2026 and can be wrong. BRC is a high-risk stock that may lose value rapidly, especially around Q2 2026 earnings, reverse split or shelf decisions, investigation news, and NYSE compliance updates.
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