Dutch Bros Inc. research snapshot
BROS AI stock analysis currently reads Dutch Bros as a high-growth U.S. drive-thru coffee brand with rising same-shop sales, record AUVs, and a large white-space unit runway toward a 2029 shop target near 2,029 locations. At the August 3, 2026 data cutoff, BROS traded near $65.83, about 102.9x TTM EPS of $0.64, so the BROS AI stock forecast is driven less by current earnings power and more by whether unit growth, transaction gains, and margin leverage can justify a still-premium multiple. TTM free cash flow improved to about $90.8 million versus $54.5 million in FY2025, but it is still thin relative to market cap because expansion capital spending is heavy. This page is for informational research only and is not investment advice.
Current price
$65.83
Market cap
About $11.5 billion on 174.65M Class A+B+C shares; Class A-only market value near $9.0 billion
AI score
62 / 100
Rating
High-growth drive-thru coffee compounder with strong comps, premium valuation, and improving but still thin free cash flow during expansion
Trend status
Above the 50-day and 200-day averages near $63.70 and $57.68 after a late-July recovery, still well below the 52-week high near $74.65
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Dutch Bros sells handcrafted espresso drinks, energy beverages, and cold drinks through a mostly company-operated drive-thru network with a strong Western brand and growing national footprint. | High |
| Moat | Moat sources are brand energy, broista culture, drive-thru convenience, loyalty engagement, and density advantages in core markets. Consumer switching costs are low and coffee competition is intense. | Medium |
| Management | CEO Christine Barone is a restaurant and beverage operator elevated after serving as President. Founder Travis Boersma remains a key cultural and ownership influence through multi-class voting structure. | Medium-high |
| Financial trend | FY2025 revenue rose 27.9% to $1.638 billion with $79.8 million attributable net income and $0.64 diluted EPS. TTM revenue through March 2026 reached $1.747 billion, with Q1 2026 revenue up 30.8% to $464.4 million and system same-shop sales up 8.3%. | High |
| Valuation | At $65.83, BROS screens near 102.9x TTM EPS, about 12.5x book using equity over Class A+B+C shares, and near 126.6x TTM free cash flow because growth capex still absorbs most cash generation. | High |
| Technical trend | Price sits above the 50-day near $63.70 and the 200-day near $57.68 after a late-July recovery from the $62 to $64 zone. RSI near 51.8 and a slightly negative MACD histogram point to digestion inside a still-positive longer-term trend. | Medium |
| Risk level | Key risks are multiple compression, new-market AUV dilution, labor and commodity inflation, traffic fade after promotion cycles, culture dilution at scale, lease and TRA liabilities, and competition in coffee and energy beverages. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | Descriptive confidence is high because company filings and third-party series largely align. Forecast confidence is medium because growth stocks re-rate quickly when comps or unit productivity slip. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | BROS is a strong growth brand, but the stock needs continued transaction growth and durable new-shop returns before the current price looks like a wide-margin-of-safety compounder. | Medium-low |
BROS AI stock forecast
The BROS AI stock forecast uses the $65.83 price reference, TTM diluted EPS of $0.64, and a three-year scenario model audited with financial_rigor.py. The model produced a bullish area near $121, a base area near $58, and a bearish area near $28 under 28%/18%/8% EPS growth paths with 90x/55x/35x exit multiples. These are scenarios, not price promises, because unit growth, same-shop sales, labor costs, coffee costs, and restaurant multiples can move quickly.
$115 to $125
More likely if Dutch Bros sustains high-20s revenue growth, keeps system same-shop sales positive with transaction gains, opens 180-plus shops a year with AUVs near system averages, improves operating leverage, and investors still pay a high-80s to low-90s earnings multiple.
$55 to $60
More likely if EPS grows around the high teens, new markets work but with some AUV and margin pressure, free cash flow improves gradually, and the market re-rates BROS toward a mid-50s earnings multiple as growth normalizes.
$26 to $30
More likely if comps slow, new-shop productivity falls outside core Western markets, labor or commodity inflation hits margins, unit growth slows, or growth investors re-rate the stock toward mid-30s restaurant multiples.
BROS AI technical analysis
BROS AI technical analysis is constructive but no longer extended as of the August 3, 2026 cutoff. Yahoo Finance chart data put the latest reference close at $65.83, with a simple 50-day average near $63.70, a 200-day average near $57.68, RSI near 51.8, and MACD histogram slightly negative after a late-July recovery from the $62 to $64 zone. The setup is not a precise prediction. It is a map for separating a healthy consolidation above the rising longer-term averages from a deeper break of the $62.40 to $64.00 support band.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $65.83 | July 31, 2026 closing reference from Yahoo Finance chart data used for valuation and technical checks at the August 3, 2026 data cutoff. |
| Immediate support | $63.85 to $64.05 | This band covers the late-July swing-low closes near $63.99 to $64.00 and the 20-day low near $63.86, and is the first short-term demand zone. |
| Deeper support | $62.40 to $62.95 | This area brackets the July 8 intraday low near $62.40 and the July 24 low near $62.92, below the late-July congestion zone. |
| Major support | $57.50 to $58.20 | The 100-day average near $58.17 and the 200-day average near $57.68 define the key intermediate trend floor. A sustained break would challenge the medium-term uptrend. |
| Near resistance | $67.00 to $67.60 | The July 10 close near $67.56 and late-July intraday highs near $67.02 to $67.24 cluster here, so reclaiming this band is the first bullish repair step. |
| Major resistance | $69.40 to $74.65 | The July 17 high near $69.39, the early-July high near $74.02, and the 52-week high near $74.65 cap the breakout zone. |
| Moving averages | 20-day near $65.61, 50-day near $63.70, 100-day near $58.17, 200-day near $57.68 | Price is roughly at the 20-day and above the 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day, consistent with a consolidation inside a larger uptrend. |
| Momentum | RSI near 51.8, MACD histogram slightly negative | Momentum recovered from the mid-July low without turning strongly positive. Neutral RSI leaves room for either repair toward $67 to $69 or another test of the $62 to $64 zone. |
| Volume | Latest session near 2.00 million shares vs about 2.59 million 20-day average | The late-July recovery has not shown heavy volume confirmation, so a move through the $67 to $69 resistance area still needs stronger participation. |
| Volatility | 52-week range near $44.58 to $74.65 | The wide range shows how quickly BROS re-rates when growth expectations and restaurant multiples shift. |
| Invalidation | Close below $63.85, then below $62.40 | A close below immediate support weakens the short-term setup. A break below the $62.40 zone would increase odds of a deeper test toward the 100-day and 200-day averages. |
BROS AI trading strategy
The BROS AI trading strategy below is a rules-based research framework, not personal advice. It connects price action with same-shop sales, transaction growth, new-shop productivity, AUV trends, labor costs, commodity costs, free cash flow, and valuation discipline.
Watch for BROS to reclaim the $67.00 to $67.60 band and hold above the 20-day average while quarterly updates confirm positive system same-shop sales, transaction growth, and shop openings near the raised 2026 pace.
A failed reclaim followed by a close below $63.85 should reduce trend confidence, especially if management signals weaker traffic, softer new-market AUVs, or higher labor and beverage costs.
If BROS pulls back toward the $62.40 to $64.00 zone without a break in unit economics, compare the lower price with multi-year shop white space, record AUVs, and the durability of transaction-led comps.
Do not treat a lower price as attractive if same-shop sales turn negative, new shops open below system AUV, free cash flow stays deeply constrained, or the growth multiple collapses toward ordinary restaurant peers.
Track system and company-operated same-shop sales, ticket vs transactions, AUV, shop openings and pipeline, company-operated contribution margin, Adjusted EBITDA, capex, free cash flow, cash, debt, lease liabilities, and TRA balances.
Position sizing should reflect that BROS is a high-multiple growth restaurant stock with low consumer switching costs and high sensitivity to comps, unit returns, and valuation re-rating.
Investment research summary
Customers pay Dutch Bros for fast drive-thru specialty coffee, energy drinks, and a high-energy service culture. The business turns shop density, brand connection, and new unit openings into revenue growth, with company-operated shops providing most sales and franchising contributing a smaller mix.
The moat is strongest in brand personality, drive-thru convenience, loyalty engagement, and local density in established Western markets. It is weaker in switching costs and product uniqueness because guests can move to Starbucks, local coffee, QSR breakfast, or convenience-store beverages if value, speed, or taste disappoints.
The thesis fails if national expansion dilutes AUVs, culture weakens as the system scales, transaction growth fades, labor or dairy and coffee costs squeeze margins, competitors copy the drive-thru energy format, or investors refuse to pay triple-digit earnings multiples for restaurant growth.
Christine Barone brings multi-year food-service and beverage operating experience and has overseen a period of stronger transaction growth and raised unit guidance. Founder influence remains important for culture and voting control. The capital-allocation test is whether heavy company-operated expansion continues to earn attractive returns after lease costs and TRA-related complexity.
U.S. specialty coffee and drive-thru convenience remain structural demand pockets supported by all-day beverage occasions, energy drinks, loyalty apps, and off-premise habits. The offset is a crowded competitive field, wage pressure, and consumer sensitivity when discretionary budgets tighten.
At $65.83 and about 102.9x TTM EPS, the market is paying for multi-year unit growth and operating leverage more than for current free cash flow. Margin of safety improves if the stock resets toward the base-to-bear scenario band or if earnings catch up faster than the multiple compresses.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| BROS quote reference | $65.83 close reference on July 31, 2026; 52-week range $44.58 to $74.65 | Yahoo Finance chart API | August 3, 2026 |
| Market capitalization verification | About $11.50 billion calculated from $65.83 x 174,648,253 Class A+B+C shares outstanding as of April 30, 2026; Class A-only market value about $9.03 billion | Pineify financial_rigor.py and Dutch Bros Q1 2026 Form 10-Q cover page | August 3, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding by class | Class A 137,192,622; Class B 35,177,924; Class C 2,277,707 as of April 30, 2026 | Dutch Bros Q1 2026 Form 10-Q | August 3, 2026 |
| FY2025 revenue and attributable earnings | $1.638 billion total revenue, $79.8 million net income attributable to Dutch Bros Inc., $0.64 diluted EPS | Dutch Bros FY2025 Form 10-K | August 3, 2026 |
| FY2025 revenue cross-check | Macrotrends and StockAnalysis both show about $1.64 billion FY2025 revenue and about $80 million earnings; cross-validate deviation under 1% | Macrotrends BROS revenue and StockAnalysis BROS overview | August 3, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 revenue, comps, and shops | $464.4 million revenue (+30.8% YoY), system same-shop sales +8.3%, systemwide same-shop transactions +5.1%, total shops 1,177, systemwide AUV $2.160 million | Dutch Bros Q1 2026 results and Form 10-Q | August 3, 2026 |
| TTM revenue and margins | TTM revenue through March 2026 about $1.747 billion (+28.4%), TTM net income about $80.6 million, TTM gross margin near 25.3% and operating margin near 9.4% | StockAnalysis BROS financials and Macrotrends | August 3, 2026 |
| Cash and long-term debt | $263.5 million cash and cash equivalents; current plus long-term debt about $199.3 million as of March 31, 2026, before large lease and TRA liabilities | Dutch Bros Q1 2026 Form 10-Q | August 3, 2026 |
| Free cash flow | TTM free cash flow about $90.8 million through March 2026; FY2025 free cash flow about $54.5 million | StockAnalysis BROS cash flow and Macrotrends BROS free cash flow | August 3, 2026 |
| Valuation ratios | PE 102.86x on $0.64 TTM EPS; PB about 12.5x using $5.27 book value per Class A+B+C share from $920.5 million equity; P/FCF about 126.6x on TTM free cash flow | Pineify financial_rigor.py verify-valuation and Q1 2026 equity | August 3, 2026 |
| Technical indicators | 20-day average near $65.61, 50-day near $63.70, 100-day near $58.17, 200-day near $57.68, RSI near 51.8, recent 20-day high/low near $68.36 / $63.86 | Yahoo Finance daily chart series computed locally | August 3, 2026 |
| 2026 company growth outlook | 2026 revenue guide near $2.05 to $2.08 billion, same-shop sales growth of 4% to 6%, Adjusted EBITDA near $370 to $380 million, and total system shop openings of at least about 185; long-term path toward about 2,029 shops in 2029 | Dutch Bros Q1 2026 earnings materials and coverage | August 3, 2026 |
| Management | Christine Barone is CEO and President; Travis Boersma is co-founder with continuing ownership and voting influence through the multi-class structure | Dutch Bros FY2025 Form 10-K | August 3, 2026 |
This BROS AI stock analysis is an informational research tool only and is not investment advice, a recommendation, or a guarantee of future results. Forecast ranges are scenarios based on available public data as of August 3, 2026 and may be wrong if comps, unit growth, margins, valuation multiples, or market conditions change.
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