Bullish case
$56 to $60
More likely if AUM remains near or above $1.79 trillion, long-term net inflows continue, alternatives and ETFs improve fee mix, Western Asset stabilizes, and the market values BEN near 15x adjusted earnings.
Franklin Resources, Inc. research snapshot
BEN AI Stock Analysis
BEN AI stock analysis currently reads Franklin Resources, Inc. as a global active asset manager with improving 2026 flows, a long dividend record, and meaningful operating leverage to market levels. At the July 8, 2026 data cutoff, BEN traded near $34.36 with an audited market capitalization of about $17.85 billion. The AI view is constructive on AUM recovery, private markets fundraising, and dividend durability, but it stays cautious on fee pressure, Western Asset Management outflows, active-management competition, and the stock sensitivity to equity and bond market conditions. This page uses scenario ranges, technical levels, and source-backed facts. It is informational research, not investment advice.
Current price
$34.36
Market cap
$17.85 billion
AI score
66 / 100
Rating
Dividend-rich asset manager with flow recovery risk
Trend status
Constructive price trend, fundamentals still cyclical
Data cutoff (updated weekly)
July 8, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
Research quality check
- information Richness
- A-level information richness. Franklin Resources has long SEC history, detailed investor releases, annual reports, AUM tables, analyst coverage, dividend records, and daily technical data.
- bias Check
- The main AI bias risk is mistaking a strong price trend and higher AUM for durable business improvement while under-weighting fee compression, Western Asset outflows, active fund competition, and market beta.
- ai Confidence
- High for quoted price, share count, reported AUM, FY2025 net income, Q2 2026 earnings, and valuation math. Medium for forward valuation because asset manager earnings can change quickly with markets, flows, product mix, and performance fees.
- investment Certainty
- Medium. The business is established and shareholder returns are visible, but long-term certainty depends on net flows, fee rates, investment performance, and capital allocation discipline.
Quick verdict table
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Franklin Resources earns fees by managing public and private market assets for retail, advisor, institutional, and wealth clients across global channels. | High |
| Moat | The moat comes from brand history, distribution reach, product breadth, specialist investment teams, client relationships, and scale, but switching costs are moderate. | Medium |
| Management | Jenny Johnson is steering the firm toward alternatives, ETFs, wealth, technology, and global distribution while defending legacy active fixed income and equity franchises. | Medium-high |
| Financial trend | Q2 FY2026 operating revenue was $2.2949 billion, adjusted EPS was $0.71, and ending AUM was $1.6821 trillion at March 31, 2026. | High |
| Valuation | At $34.36, BEN traded near 26.23x TTM EPS, 12.36x FY2026 adjusted EPS forecast, 19.09x FCF per share, and a 3.84% dividend yield. | Medium-high |
| Technical trend | Daily technical signals were constructive, with price above the 50-day and 200-day moving averages and RSI below overbought territory. | Medium |
| Risk level | Main risks are sustained outflows, fee compression, weak active performance, market drawdowns, integration risk, and dividend payout pressure. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | High for descriptive research and audited calculations. Lower for exact price outcomes because market levels and fund flows can reprice asset managers quickly. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | Medium certainty. BEN has brand, scale, and dividend history, but the investment case needs evidence that AUM growth and net flows can outpace fee and cost pressure. | Medium |
BEN AI stock forecast
BEN AI Stock Forecast Scenarios
The BEN AI stock forecast uses scenario math around the $34.36 quote and StockAnalysis FY2026 adjusted EPS forecast of $2.78. The audited three-year framework produced a bearish area near $20, a base area near $40, and a bullish area near $59 before dividends.
Base case
$38 to $41
More likely if FY2026 adjusted EPS near $2.78 compounds at a mid-single-digit rate, the dividend remains covered by cash flow, and investors keep the stock near a 12x adjusted earnings multiple.
Bearish case
$19 to $21
More likely if markets fall, fixed income or active equity outflows return, fee rates compress, Western Asset weakness persists, or payout pressure forces the multiple toward 8x adjusted earnings.
BEN AI technical analysis
BEN AI Technical Analysis
BEN AI technical analysis is constructive as of the July 8, 2026 cutoff. StockAnalysis listed a $34.36 close on July 7, 2026, with 50-day and 200-day moving averages near $31.65 and $26.23, while Investing.com showed a daily strong buy technical condition with RSI near neutral.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $34.36 | StockAnalysis close on July 7, 2026, used for market cap and valuation math. |
| Near support | $31.65 | The 50-day moving average is the first trend support reference after the recent advance. |
| Secondary support | $26.23 | The 200-day moving average is the longer-term trend reference if the breakout fails. |
| Near resistance | $34.50 to $36.00 | The current price zone is the first resistance band because BEN is extended above its moving averages. |
| 50-day moving average | $31.65 | StockAnalysis listed price above this level, supporting a constructive intermediate trend. |
| 200-day moving average | $26.23 | Price was well above the long-term average, confirming positive trend status but also showing gap risk if momentum fades. |
| Momentum | RSI 66.13 | StockAnalysis showed strong momentum below the usual 70 overbought threshold. Investing.com listed RSI in a neutral zone. |
| Volume | 20-day average about 4.5 million shares | StockAnalysis reported liquid large-cap trading volume at the July 8, 2026 statistics check. |
| Volatility | Beta 1.58 | BEN has above-market price volatility because earnings and fee revenue are linked to market levels and fund flows. |
| Invalidation | Close below $31.65, then $26.23 | A decisive break below the 50-day average would weaken the near-term setup. A break below the 200-day average would challenge the broader recovery trend. |
BEN AI trading strategy
BEN AI Trading Strategy Framework
The BEN AI trading strategy is a rules-based research framework for an asset manager with dividend support and flow-cycle exposure. It is not personal advice and should be paired with live quotes, AUM releases, earnings updates, position sizing, and portfolio-level risk limits.
Trend-following setup
Watch for BEN to hold above the 50-day moving average near $31.65 and continue making higher closes while monthly AUM and long-term net flow data remain positive.
A close below the 50-day average or a negative flow surprise after earnings should invalidate the short-term trend setup.
Mean-reversion setup
If BEN pulls back toward the low $30s without a new flow, fee, or market shock, compare the selloff with dividend yield, free cash flow, and current AUM evidence.
Do not average down without a defined loss limit because an asset manager can look cheap just before market-driven earnings revisions.
Fundamental monitor
Track monthly AUM, long-term net flows, Western Asset trends, fee rate mix, adjusted operating margin, dividend coverage, buybacks, and private markets fundraising.
Reduce confidence if EPS growth depends mainly on market appreciation or cost actions rather than durable net inflows and fee-bearing AUM growth.
Investment research summary
Four-master Research Compression
Business essence
Franklin Resources turns investment teams, distribution relationships, product packaging, and client trust into recurring management and advisory fee revenue tied to AUM.
Moat
The moat is strongest in brand recognition, scale, distribution reach, specialist managers, alternatives access, and long client relationships. It narrows when performance lags, fees compress, or clients shift to cheaper passive products.
Munger risk inversion
The thesis fails if market appreciation masks weak organic flows, Western Asset outflows persist, alternatives fundraising slows, active products underperform, or the dividend absorbs too much free cash flow.
Management
Jenny Johnson and the board must prove that acquisitions, ETF expansion, alternatives, wealth technology, and global distribution can create durable net flows without weakening returns on capital.
Industry trend
Asset management benefits from global wealth creation and retirement savings, but the industry faces passive competition, fee pressure, scale advantages, adviser consolidation, and market-cycle sensitivity.
Valuation and margin of safety
BEN trades at a moderate multiple of FY2026 adjusted EPS forecasts and offers a meaningful dividend yield. Margin of safety depends on whether AUM growth and fee mix can offset secular pressure in traditional active management.
Source-backed data
BEN Data Table
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| BEN price | $34.36 at the July 7, 2026 close | StockAnalysis quote snapshot | July 8, 2026 |
| Market capitalization | $17.85 billion, verified as $34.36 x 519.64 million shares | financial_rigor.py market cap verification | July 8, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding | 519.64 million shares | StockAnalysis statistics | July 8, 2026 |
| June 2026 preliminary AUM | $1.79 trillion at June 30, 2026, up from $1.78 trillion at May 31, 2026 | Franklin Resources June 2026 AUM release | July 8, 2026 |
| Q2 FY2026 operating revenue and adjusted EPS | $2.2949 billion operating revenue, $0.71 adjusted diluted EPS | Franklin Resources Q2 FY2026 earnings release | July 8, 2026 |
| Q2 FY2026 AUM and long-term net flows | $1.6821 trillion ending AUM and $16.9 billion long-term net inflows at March 31, 2026 | Franklin Resources Q2 FY2026 earnings release | July 8, 2026 |
| FY2025 net income attributable to Franklin Resources | $524.9 million | Franklin Resources 2025 Form 10-K and StockAnalysis cross-check | July 8, 2026 |
| FY2025 revenue cross-check | $8.7707 billion company operating revenues vs. $8.506 billion StockAnalysis standardized revenue | Franklin Resources 2025 Form 10-K and StockAnalysis | July 8, 2026 |
| Cash and investments | $5.1 billion cash and cash equivalents plus investments at March 31, 2026; StockAnalysis cash-only snapshot was $2.57 billion | Franklin Resources Q2 release and StockAnalysis statistics | July 8, 2026 |
| Valuation check | 26.23x TTM EPS, 1.47x book value, 19.09x FCF per share, 3.84% dividend yield | financial_rigor.py valuation verification | July 8, 2026 |
| FY2026 EPS forecast | $2.78 adjusted EPS average forecast | StockAnalysis forecast page | July 8, 2026 |
| Technical snapshot | 50-day SMA $31.65, 200-day SMA $26.23, RSI 66.13, 20-day average volume about 4.5 million shares | StockAnalysis statistics | July 8, 2026 |
Frequently Asked Questions
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This BEN AI stock analysis is an informational research tool, not investment advice, a recommendation, or a promise of future return. Forecast ranges are scenarios based on available filings, quote snapshots, technical data, and third-party sources as of the stated cutoff date. They may be wrong, incomplete, or outdated after new earnings, AUM releases, market moves, flow data, dividend changes, fee pressure, or macro conditions.