Avery Dennison Corporation research snapshot
AVY AI stock analysis currently reads Avery Dennison Corporation as a high-quality materials science and digital identification company with durable label demand, a reaccelerating Intelligent Labels platform, strong free cash flow, disciplined capital returns, and cyclical exposure to apparel, retail, logistics, raw material inflation, tariffs, and customer inventory swings. The page uses scenario analysis, not a certain price prediction. At the August 2, 2026 cutoff, the latest verified close was $169.73 on July 31, 2026, market capitalization was about $12.98 billion, and Q2 2026 results delivered 7.6 percent organic sales growth and adjusted EPS of $2.89, up 19.4 percent. The main question is whether the Q2 customer pre-buy unwind in the second half keeps organic growth and margins on the guided path. This is informational research and not investment advice.
Current price
$169.73
Market cap
$12.98 billion
AI score
74 / 100
Rating
Quality materials and digital ID compounder with reaccelerating growth, valuation proof still pending
Trend status
Recovering above the 50-day average but still below the 200-day average
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Avery Dennison sells labeling materials, functional materials, RFID inlays, tags, software, and branded information solutions across consumer goods, apparel, retail, logistics, food, pharma, and automotive end markets. | High |
| Moat | The moat comes from global scale, converter and brand relationships, technical adhesive and materials know-how, RFID manufacturing depth, product qualification, and supply chain integration rather than a pure network effect. | Medium-high |
| Management | Deon Stander has been president and CEO since September 2023. Q2 2026 combined a 6 percent dividend increase, $138 million in buybacks, and a 2.3x net debt to adjusted EBITDA ratio, with the Wiliot minority investment adding a Physical AI option. | Medium-high |
| Financial trend | 2025 reported sales were about $8.86 billion and TTM revenue reached about $9.25 billion. Q2 2026 net sales rose 10.9 percent with 7.6 percent organic growth, but roughly half of that organic growth came from customer pre-buy activity. | High |
| Valuation | At $169.73, verified ratios were about 18.58x TTM EPS, 5.58x book value, 12.21x TTM free cash flow, and an 8.19 percent FCF yield. The consensus price target of $201.80 implies upside, but the margin of safety is moderate, not deep. | Medium |
| Technical trend | The stock closed below its 200-day moving average but above its 50-day moving average, with RSI near 58.5. A sustained move through the $172.39 to $180 zone would matter more than one strong day. | Medium |
| Risk level | Main risks are the Q3 customer destocking unwind, raw material inflation and pricing lag, tariff and FX pressure, apparel and retail softness, leverage, acquisition execution, RFID adoption timing, and logistics volume normalization. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | High for quote math, SEC filings, Q2 2026 facts, guidance, and balance sheet data; medium for forward technical levels and scenario valuation because those require live market confirmation. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | Medium certainty. Avery Dennison has durable franchise traits, but the second half setup still depends on how the pre-buy unwind, inflation pass-through, and Solutions Group margins develop. | Medium |
AVY AI stock forecast
The AVY AI stock forecast uses scenario ranges around the $169.73 close instead of a single target. The bullish case needs sustained mid single digit organic growth ex pre-buy, Intelligent Labels and Wiliot adoption, and margin expansion; the bearish case becomes more likely if destocking runs deeper or longer, raw material inflation is not passed through, or valuation compresses.
$235 to $275
More likely if AVY sustains mid to high single digit EPS growth, the Q3 destocking unwind is quick, Intelligent Labels accelerates with food rollouts, Wiliot-related sensor opportunities add optionality, and AVY clears the $172.39 to $180 resistance zone with volume.
$185 to $215
More likely if AVY delivers the guided 7 percent adjusted EPS growth on 3 to 4 percent organic sales, converts free cash flow near 100 percent, keeps net debt to adjusted EBITDA near 2.3x, and the market values the stock near 16x to 18x normalized earnings.
$110 to $135
More likely if destocking runs deeper or longer into 2026, raw material inflation outpaces pricing, apparel and retail demand weakens, logistics volume stays soft, leverage limits buybacks, or the stock loses the $160.44 support zone.
AVY AI technical analysis
AVY AI technical analysis starts from the $169.73 close on July 31, 2026. StockAnalysis reported a 50-day moving average of $160.44, a 200-day moving average of $172.39, RSI of 58.55, and 20-day average volume of about 805,632 shares. Because this static page does not fetch request-time chart data, intraday levels should be confirmed in a live charting tool before use.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $169.73 | Latest verified close used for this page, reported for July 31, 2026. |
| Near support | $160.44 to $162 | Planning zone around the reported 50-day moving average and recent consolidation. Treat it as a risk zone, not a guaranteed floor. |
| Key support | $152.42 | The 52-week low reported by StockAnalysis. A decisive close below this level would open lower valuation support. |
| Near resistance | $172.39 to $180 | The first level is the reported 200-day moving average. A sustained move above this zone would improve medium-term trend evidence. |
| 50-day moving average | $160.44 | Reported by StockAnalysis as of July 31, 2026. AVY closed above this marker at the cutoff. |
| 200-day moving average | $172.39 | AVY was still below this longer-term trend marker at the data cutoff. |
| Momentum | RSI 58.55 | Momentum was neutral to modestly positive, not overbought, at the cutoff. |
| Volume | 1,336,923 shares on July 31 | StockAnalysis reported volume above the 20-day average on the earnings reaction day, so follow-through above resistance still needs confirmation. |
| Volatility | Beta 0.81 | Price volatility has been below the market average, but earnings, guidance, and destocking news can still move the stock sharply. |
| Invalidation | Close below $160.44 | A decisive close below the 50-day moving average would weaken the recovery setup and shift attention back toward the $152.42 52-week low. |
AVY AI trading strategy
The AVY AI trading strategy is a rules-based research framework. It is not personalized advice and should be paired with position sizing, stop levels, live chart data, and fresh earnings or filing checks.
Wait for AVY to reclaim the $172.39 to $180 resistance zone, then confirm the move with volume, Q3 earnings quality, organic growth excluding pre-buy, and evidence that raw material inflation is being passed through in pricing.
A failed reclaim of the 200-day moving average, a close back below $160.44, or a deeper-than-guided destocking unwind should invalidate the setup.
If AVY tests the $160.44 to $162 support band without a thesis break, compare the price move with free cash flow, net debt, raw material spreads, apparel demand, Intelligent Labels growth, and management guidance.
Do not average down without a maximum loss level and a fresh review of destocking timing, tariff exposure, balance sheet leverage, and customer inventory behavior.
Track organic sales excluding pre-buy, Materials Group margin, Solutions Group margin, Intelligent Labels growth across apparel, food, and logistics, Wiliot execution, free cash flow conversion, net debt to adjusted EBITDA, buybacks, and dividend coverage.
Reduce confidence when price strength is not backed by better ex pre-buy organic growth, margin recovery, or debt-adjusted capital return discipline.
Investment research summary
Avery Dennison is paid when brands, retailers, converters, logistics operators, and manufacturers need labels, adhesives, graphics, RFID tags, digital IDs, and product information systems that make goods identifiable and trackable.
The moat is practical and industrial: global scale, trusted product qualification, converter channels, adhesive and materials knowledge, RFID manufacturing depth, and embedded relationships with brands and retailers.
The thesis can fail if the customer pre-buy unwind runs deeper or longer, raw material inflation outpaces pricing, RFID adoption disappoints, apparel and retail stay soft, tariffs and FX pressure margins, debt reduces flexibility, or Wiliot stays optionality rather than earnings power.
The key management test is balanced capital allocation: protect margins, fund high-value categories, keep leverage near 2.3x net debt to adjusted EBITDA, return cash through dividends and buybacks, and avoid paying too much for growth optionality.
Labels and functional materials are mature but necessary. Digital identification, RFID, food retail rollouts, supply chain transparency, loss reduction, and Physical AI create a long-term growth layer on top of cyclical base demand.
The verified three-scenario model, using a fiscal 2026 adjusted EPS midpoint of $10.15, produced about $285 in the bull case, $211 in the base case, and $140 in the bear case; a TTM GAAP EPS model produced about $237, $174, and $110. At $169.73, the stock has base-case upside but not a deep value margin of safety.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| AVY price | $169.73 close on July 31, 2026 | StockAnalysis quote page | August 2, 2026 |
| Market capitalization | $12.98 billion, verified as $169.73 x 76.49 million shares | financial_rigor.py market cap verification | August 2, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding | 76.49 million; 76,490,385 as of May 2, 2026 | SEC Q1 2026 Form 10-Q cover | August 2, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 sales | $2,462.9 million, up 10.9 percent reported and 7.6 percent organic | Avery Dennison Q2 2026 results | August 2, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 EPS | Reported $2.67; adjusted $2.89, up 19.4 percent | Avery Dennison Q2 2026 results | August 2, 2026 |
| Fiscal 2026 guidance | Adjusted EPS $10.00 to $10.30 on 3 to 4 percent organic sales | Avery Dennison Q2 2026 earnings call | August 2, 2026 |
| TTM revenue and net income | $9.25 billion revenue and $704.9 million net income | StockAnalysis statistics | August 2, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 segments | Materials Group sales $1,796.1 million, organic up 9.7 percent; Solutions Group sales $666.8 million, organic up 2.6 percent | Avery Dennison Q2 2026 results | August 2, 2026 |
| Cash and debt | $227.3 million cash and $3,678 million total debt; net debt to adjusted EBITDA 2.3x | Avery Dennison Q2 2026 results | August 2, 2026 |
| TTM free cash flow | $1.06 billion, or $13.90 per share | StockAnalysis statistics | August 2, 2026 |
| Technical markers | 50-day MA $160.44, 200-day MA $172.39, RSI 58.55 | StockAnalysis statistics | August 2, 2026 |
| Analyst consensus | Buy rating, average price target $201.80 from 11 analysts | StockAnalysis forecast page | August 2, 2026 |
| Wiliot investment | $75 million minority investment announced April 27, 2026 | Avery Dennison Wiliot investment release | August 2, 2026 |
| Management | Deon Stander, president and CEO since September 2023 | Avery Dennison leadership profile | August 2, 2026 |
This AVY AI stock analysis is an informational tool, not investment advice, tax advice, legal advice, or a recommendation to buy or sell Avery Dennison Corporation. Forecast scenarios are based on available public data at the stated cutoff and can be wrong. Always verify live market data, filings, and your own risk tolerance before making financial decisions.
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