Crown Holdings, Inc. research snapshot
CCK AI stock analysis currently reads Crown Holdings as a global rigid packaging company with improving free cash flow, lower net leverage, and a mid-teens earnings multiple. At the July 12, 2026 data cutoff, the reference price was $111.47 and market capitalization was about $12.46 billion. The business quality score is above average because beverage cans and tinplate products create recurring industrial demand, but the CCK AI stock forecast remains scenario-based rather than a precise price call. This page is informational research, not investment advice.
Current price
$111.47
Market cap
$12.46 billion
AI score
67 / 100
Rating
Quality rigid packaging leader, balance sheet improving
Trend status
Constructive longer-term trend near short-term averages, with event risk into Q2 earnings
Data cutoff (updated weekly)
July 12, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Crown is a global rigid packaging supplier to beverage, food, aerosol, and transit packaging customers with multi-region manufacturing scale. | Medium-high |
| Moat | Scale, plant network, customer relationships, process know-how, and recyclable can formats support the moat, but packaging remains cost and volume sensitive. | Medium |
| Management | Timothy J. Donahue leads as Chairman, President, and CEO, with capital allocation focused on free cash flow, lower leverage, dividends, buybacks, and selective capacity expansion. | Medium-high |
| Financial trend | FY2025 net sales were $12.365 billion, net income attributable to Crown was $738 million, and adjusted free cash flow was a record $1.146 billion. | High |
| Valuation | At $111.47, CCK trades near 17.5x FY2025 diluted EPS of $6.38, about 4.2x book value, and roughly 10.9x FY2025 adjusted free cash flow per share. | Medium |
| Technical trend | Price is near short-term moving averages around $111.80 and above longer-term support near $101, so the trend is constructive but not breakout-clean as of the data cutoff. | Medium |
| Risk level | Main risks are aluminum, energy, and logistics costs, regional volume weakness, leverage, asbestos legacy claims, currency translation, and customer pricing pressure. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | Descriptive confidence is high because company filings and cash flow data are rich. Return confidence is lower because packaging multiples depend on volume and free cash flow durability. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | Crown is a higher-quality packaging name than many cyclical industrials, but the current price still requires confidence in cash generation and leverage control. | Medium |
CCK AI stock forecast
The CCK AI stock forecast should be read as scenario math, not a precise price target. Using FY2025 diluted EPS of $6.38, a July 12, 2026 price reference near $111.47, and a three-year framework checked with financial_rigor.py, the tested range spans about $70 in a bear case, $111 in a base case, and $153 in a bullish case before dividends.
$145 to $160
More likely if global beverage can shipments keep growing, adjusted EPS compounds near double digits toward or above the 2026 guidance band, free cash flow stays strong after growth capex, and the market keeps a high-teens earnings multiple.
$105 to $118
More likely if EPS compounds near mid-single digits, free cash flow remains positive near the $900 million 2026 guide, and the market keeps CCK near a mid-teens earnings multiple.
$65 to $76
More likely if packaging volumes slow, aluminum or energy costs pressure margins, leverage progress stalls, Asia Pacific or Transit Packaging softens further, or investors assign a lower industrial multiple to free cash flow.
CCK AI technical analysis
CCK AI technical analysis is constructive but mixed as of the July 12, 2026 data cutoff. Public technical feeds placed price near a short-term moving average around $111.80, with longer-term support near $101.41 and volume support near $101.54 to $100.17. That supports a positive intermediate trend view, but the setup still needs a defined invalidation level because packaging stocks can reverse on earnings, aluminum costs, or shipment data. Next reported earnings were scheduled for July 20, 2026 after the market close.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $111.47 | Public market quotes around July 10 to 11, 2026 clustered near $111.47 with market cap about $12.46 billion. |
| Near support | $101.50 to $100.00 | StockInvest listed longer-term average support near $101.41 and accumulated-volume support near $101.54 and $100.17. |
| Longer support | $88.37 | The reported 52-week low near $88.37 is a longer-term reference if the intermediate trend fails. |
| Near resistance | $111.80 to $115.83 | Short-term moving average resistance was listed near $111.80, with the 52-week high near $115.83 as the next overhead zone. |
| Moving averages | Near short-term MA, above longer-term MA | StockInvest described a short-term sell signal against a longer-term buy signal, which is a mixed but still constructive intermediate setup. |
| Momentum | Constructive with event risk | Price holds above longer-term support, but momentum can flip quickly around earnings and aluminum cost headlines. |
| Volume | Confirm on breakouts | A breakout above the $111.80 to $115.83 resistance zone is more meaningful if volume expands with the move. |
| Volatility marker | Earnings due July 20, 2026 | Barchart listed the next earnings date as July 20, 2026 after the market close, which can raise event risk. |
| Invalidation | Close below $100 | A close below the $101 to $100 support band would invalidate the near-term trend-following setup. |
CCK AI trading strategy
The CCK AI trading strategy below is a rules-based research framework, not personal advice. It combines business evidence, technical confirmation, and predefined invalidation levels so the trade plan does not depend on a single AI forecast.
Watch for CCK to hold above the $101 to $100 support band and push through the $111.80 to $115.83 resistance area with confirmation from volume and stable industrial market breadth.
Use a close below $100 or a failed breakout back under the short-term average as a rules-based invalidation signal.
If CCK pulls back toward the $101 support zone while fundamentals remain intact, compare price action with beverage shipment updates, free cash flow guidance, net leverage, and aluminum cost pass-through commentary.
Avoid averaging down if the next earnings update shows weaker global beverage shipments, margin pressure, or rising net debt.
Track Americas Beverage, European Beverage, Asia Pacific, Transit Packaging volumes, adjusted free cash flow, net leverage, capital spending, share repurchases, dividends, aluminum and energy costs, and asbestos claim cash outflows.
Do not treat buybacks as a substitute for margin of safety. Position sizing should account for leverage, commodity costs, and event risk around earnings.
Investment research summary
Customers pay Crown for rigid packaging that protects, transports, and markets beverages, food, aerosols, and industrial goods. Revenue is driven by beverage can shipments, tinplate products, transit packaging, and related equipment, with a large share of sales outside the United States.
The moat comes from global manufacturing scale, customer relationships, plant location near demand, process efficiency, and recyclable metal packaging formats. It is not a monopoly moat because customers can pressure price and competitors such as Ball can add capacity.
The thesis fails if beverage can demand slows, aluminum or energy costs cannot be passed through quickly, Asia Pacific or Transit Packaging volume keeps falling, leverage limits capital returns, asbestos cash costs rise, or the stock de-rates on weaker free cash flow.
Timothy J. Donahue leads as Chairman, President, and CEO, with Kevin C. Clothier as CFO. Capital allocation in 2025 combined record free cash flow, $625 million returned to shareholders, and a lower net leverage ratio of 2.5x. The next test is whether 2026 growth capex and the India beverage can plant still leave room for cash returns and leverage control.
Crown benefits from consumer preference for recyclable beverage cans and multi-region packaging demand. The trend is favorable for metal packaging, but mature end markets, raw material cycles, and industrial transit packaging keep the business from being a pure growth story.
At about 17.5x FY2025 diluted EPS and roughly a 9% free cash flow yield on 2025 adjusted free cash flow, CCK is not priced as deep value, but it is more reasonable than many high-multiple industrials. Margin of safety depends on durable free cash flow, lower leverage, and volume stability.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| CCK reference price | $111.47 around July 10 to 11, 2026 | Public market quotes via Seeking Alpha and Robinhood summaries | July 12, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding at Q1 2026 quarter end | 111,756,236 common shares | Crown Holdings Q1 2026 results release | July 12, 2026 |
| Market cap | $12.46 billion calculated from $111.47 x 111.756M shares | Pineify financial_rigor.py calculation | July 12, 2026 |
| FY2025 net sales | $12.365 billion | Crown Holdings FY2025 results release | July 12, 2026 |
| FY2025 net income attributable to Crown Holdings | $738 million | Crown Holdings FY2025 results release | July 12, 2026 |
| FY2025 diluted EPS | $6.38 reported; $7.79 adjusted | Crown Holdings FY2025 results release | July 12, 2026 |
| FY2025 adjusted free cash flow | $1.146 billion | Crown Holdings FY2025 results release | July 12, 2026 |
| Cash and cash equivalents | $584 million at March 31, 2026; $764 million at December 31, 2025 | Crown Holdings Q1 2026 and FY2025 results releases | July 12, 2026 |
| Total debt and net debt | Total debt $5.964 billion and net debt $5.200 billion at December 31, 2025; net debt $5.673 billion at March 31, 2026 | Crown Holdings FY2025 and Q1 2026 results releases | July 12, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 adjusted diluted EPS and 2026 guidance | Adjusted diluted EPS $1.86; full-year 2026 adjusted EPS guide $7.90 to $8.30; adjusted free cash flow guide about $900 million | Crown Holdings Q1 2026 results release | July 12, 2026 |
| Technical moving averages and support | Short-term MA near $111.80, longer-term average near $101.41, volume support near $101.54 and $100.17 | StockInvest technical analysis | July 12, 2026 |
| Company profile | Global rigid packaging supplier with operations in 39 countries, more than 23,000 employees, and about $12 billion net sales | Crown Holdings investor relations | July 12, 2026 |
This CCK AI stock analysis is an informational research tool only. It is not investment advice, financial advice, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold Crown Holdings stock. Forecast scenarios are based on available public data as of July 12, 2026 and can be wrong if business conditions, market prices, interest rates, or company disclosures change.
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