Avnet, Inc. research snapshot
AVT AI stock analysis as of the August 3, 2026 data cutoff reads Avnet as a cyclical distribution recovery that is executing well and expanding margins, but trading at a trailing multiple that prices in continued improvement. The stock closed at $88.84 on July 31, 2026, with an after-hours print of $88.74 and a market capitalization near $7.29 billion, verified as $88.84 times 82.02 million shares outstanding per StockAnalysis.com and Barchart. Avnet reported record fiscal Q3 2026 sales of $7.1 billion on April 29, 2026, up 34% year over year, with adjusted EPS of $1.48 above the high end of guidance and consensus, a third consecutive quarter of adjusted operating margin expansion to 3.1%, and Q4 guidance for sales of $7.3 billion to $7.6 billion and diluted EPS of $1.70 to $1.80. Roughly half of the sequential sales growth and about a quarter of the year-over-year growth came from higher memory pricing, which is partly a pass-through windfall. Asia posted record sales of $3.5 billion, about 49% of total sales, and inventory days fell to 77. The stock trades at 34.7 times trailing EPS of $2.56 because the recovery is still early on a trailing earnings basis, against a forward PE near 11.7 and an FY2026 adjusted EPS consensus of $5.13. Analysts carry a Hold consensus with an average target of $89.50, near the current price, with a low target of $72 and a high of $96. The AI score sits at 61 out of 100 with a rating of cyclical recovery with improving margins and a still elevated trailing multiple, because execution, margins, and guidance are moving in the right direction, but memory pricing is a volatile contributor, free cash flow is thin, and the stock already trades near the analyst average target. This is informational research and not investment advice.
Current price
$88.84
Market cap
$7.29 billion
AI score
61 / 100
Rating
Cyclical recovery with improving margins, trailing multiple still elevated
Trend status
Uptrend above the 50-day and 200-day moving averages, below the 52-week high
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Avnet is a global electronic component distribution platform operating through Electronic Components and Farnell, with TTM revenue near $24.96 billion and record Q3 FY2026 sales of $7.1 billion. Net margins remain thin at 0.86%, typical of the distribution model. | Medium-high |
| Moat | The moat comes from scale logistics, long-term supplier relationships, embedded supply chain services, demand creation and design support, and a global footprint that are costly for small distributors to replicate, but the business lacks supplier pricing power. | Medium |
| Management | CEO Phil Gallagher has led since 2016 with a focus on working capital, inventory days (down to 77), leverage reduction (3.6x gross, targeting about 3x), and margin expansion. Capital allocation stays balanced between reinvestment and a $1.40 dividend plus buybacks. | Medium-high |
| Financial trend | TTM revenue of $24.96 billion is up 12.7%, but TTM net income of $213.9 million is down 32.5% and TTM free cash flow is thin at $32.88 million. Q3 FY2026 adjusted EPS of $1.48 beat consensus and marked a third straight quarter of adjusted operating margin expansion to 3.1%. | Medium-high |
| Valuation | The stock trades at 34.7 times trailing EPS and a forward PE near 11.7, with 0.29 times sales, 1.47 times book value, and EV to EBITDA near 16. The trailing multiple is elevated relative to distribution history and reflects depressed trailing earnings during the recovery. | Medium |
| Technical trend | AVT closed at $88.84 on July 31, 2026, above the 50-day moving average near $87.49 and the 200-day near $66.39, about 7% below the $95.26 52-week high. Barchart rates the technical opinion 72% buy with a strengthening short-term outlook. | Medium-high |
| Risk level | The thesis can fail if memory price increases reverse, a new inventory correction hits, tariffs disrupt global supply chains, Europe recovery stalls, margins stop expanding, or the multiple compresses from the elevated trailing level. Short interest near 8% of shares adds pressure. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | High confidence for filings, price, market data, balance sheet, and Q3 FY2026 results. Medium confidence for forward earnings and scenario ranges given distribution cyclicality and memory price volatility. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | Medium certainty. The momentum and guidance are positive, but the stock near the analyst average target and the memory dependency of recent growth reduce the margin of safety. | Medium |
AVT AI stock forecast
The AVT AI stock forecast uses scenario ranges around the July 31, 2026 close of $88.84 and the FY2026 adjusted EPS consensus of $5.13, not a guaranteed target. The bullish case requires the recovery to broaden beyond memory pricing into durable industrial, networking, and data center demand with continued margin expansion. The base case assumes the recovery continues but memory price contributions fade. The bearish case assumes a new inventory correction, memory price reversal, or margin compression.
$100 to $115
More likely if the upcycle broadens beyond memory into semiconductors and IP&E, EC operating margins reach the 4% target, Farnell returns toward double-digit margins, book-to-bill stays above parity in all regions, and FY2027 EPS approaches the near $8 consensus. The Raymond James and Truist buy ratings with $95 targets, plus the median target of $95, support this direction.
$85 to $100
More likely if the recovery continues but memory price contributions fade, FY2026 adjusted EPS lands near $5.13 and FY2027 near $7.98, and the stock trades between roughly 11x and 14x forward earnings. The StockAnalysis average target of $89.50 and the analyst median of $95 sit inside this range.
$60 to $75
More likely if memory pricing reverses, a new inventory correction returns, tariffs or macro weakness hit global demand, or margin expansion stalls before reaching targets. The Wells Fargo sell rating with a $72 target and the 200-day moving average zone frame this range.
AVT AI technical analysis
AVT AI technical analysis starts from the $88.84 close on July 31, 2026, used for this August 3 static page. The stock holds above the 50-day moving average near $87.49 and the 200-day moving average near $66.39, about 7% below the $95.26 52-week high, and Barchart rates the technical opinion 72% buy with a strengthening short-term outlook. Because this page does not fetch request-time market data, traders should confirm levels on a live chart before acting.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $88.84 | July 31, 2026 close, with an after-hours print near $88.74, used for the August 3, 2026 data cutoff. |
| First support | $87.21 | The first Barchart support level below the current price. This zone also aligns with the 50-day moving average area near $87.49. |
| Second and third support | $85.58 to $84.36 | Barchart second and third support levels. A daily close below $84.36 would open a test of the early July consolidation around $80. |
| First resistance | $90.06 | The first Barchart resistance level just above the current price, reflecting the recent trading range near the highs. |
| Second and third resistance | $91.27 to $92.90 | Barchart resistance levels leading into the $95.26 52-week high. A sustained break above $92.90 would signal renewed momentum. |
| 52-week high | $95.26 | Set on June 2, 2026. A close above this level would confirm a new leg higher after the 61% 52-week advance. |
| 50-day moving average | Approximately $87.49 | AVT traded just above its 50-day moving average at the cutoff, keeping the near-term structure constructive. |
| 200-day moving average | Approximately $66.39 | The 200-day moving average is well below the price, confirming the longer-term uptrend that started from the $44.25 low. |
| Momentum | RSI approximately 54, neutral to firm | The RSI near 54 is not overbought, leaving room for continued upside if volume confirms a break above resistance. |
| Volume | Average volume near 980,000 shares | Twenty-day average volume is about 980,000 shares. The July 31 close printed about 1.18 million shares on the up move. |
| Volatility | Implied volatility near 49% | Options implied volatility near 49% with an IV percentile near 93% implies elevated near-term event risk into the August 5, 2026 earnings report. |
| Invalidation | Close below $84.36 or sustained break above $92.90 | A daily close below $84.36 would weaken the short-term structure. A sustained break above $92.90 with volume would signal a test of the $95.26 high. |
AVT AI trading strategy
The AVT AI trading strategy is a rules-based framework, not personalized advice. It combines filing-backed business evidence, technical confirmation, position sizing, and clear invalidation levels, and it flags the August 5, 2026 Q4 FY2026 earnings report as the key near-term catalyst.
Wait for AVT to hold the $84.36 to $87.21 support zone and confirm a break above $90.06 and then $92.90 with above-average volume before adding to a long position. Confirmation from Q4 results and FY2027 guidance would strengthen the setup.
A daily close below $84.36, or a reversal after Q4 earnings that breaks the 50-day moving average near $87.49, would invalidate the setup. Do not add to a position that loses the 50-day support.
If AVT pulls back toward the $84.36 to $87.21 zone without a fundamental thesis break, compare price action with Q4 results, memory price trends, book-to-bill, and margin commentary before considering a bounce trade.
Do not trade on technicals alone. Volume confirmation and a clean catalyst are needed, and a maximum loss should be defined before entry because earnings on August 5 can gap the stock either way.
Track quarterly revenue and EPS versus guidance, memory price contribution, EC operating margin progress toward 4%, Farnell margin recovery, book-to-bill by region, inventory days, working capital days, gross leverage, and free cash flow conversion.
Reduce confidence if memory-driven growth fades without broader demand, margins stop expanding, leverage stalls above 3.5x, or free cash flow stays thin while the stock trades near the analyst average target.
Investment research summary
Avnet sells electronic component distribution services globally, acting as the logistics, supply chain, and design intermediary between component suppliers and OEMs, EMS providers, and engineers. Customers pay for availability, supply chain reliability, and engineering support.
The moat is built on global scale, long-term supplier relationships, embedded supply chain services, demand creation and design resources, and an extensive distribution network that are costly to replicate, though the model carries thin margins and limited pricing power.
The thesis can fail if memory price increases reverse and expose how much of the recent growth was pass-through pricing, if a new inventory correction hits, if tariffs or macro weakness slow global demand, if the Europe recovery stalls, or if margin expansion stops before the 4% EC target.
Management has driven inventory days down to 77, cut gross leverage to 3.6x, expanded adjusted operating margin three quarters in a row, and guided Q4 FY2026 to $7.3 billion to $7.6 billion in sales with EPS of $1.70 to $1.80. Shareholder returns include a $1.40 annual dividend and buybacks.
Electronic component distribution is cyclical but benefits from rising electronics content per device, AI and data center buildout, and the multiplier effect where every semiconductor requires interconnect, passive, and electromechanical parts. Avnet estimates direct data center and AI exposure near 10% to 15%, up from 5% to 7% a few quarters ago.
At 34.7 times trailing EPS, 1.47 times book value, and about 16 times EV to EBITDA, the stock prices in continued margin recovery and growth. The forward multiple near 11.7 offers more room, but thin free cash flow and memory dependency limit the margin of safety near the analyst average target of $89.50.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| AVT price | $88.84 close on July 31, 2026, up 2.35%, after-hours near $88.74 | StockAnalysis.com and Barchart quote snapshots | August 3, 2026 |
| Market capitalization | $7.29 billion, verified as $88.84 x 82.02 million shares (0.05% deviation, passed) | financial_rigor.py, StockAnalysis.com, and Barchart | August 3, 2026 |
| TTM revenue and net income | TTM revenue $24.96 billion up 12.7%; TTM net income $213.9 million down 32.5% | StockAnalysis.com TTM financials and statistics | August 3, 2026 |
| Q3 FY2026 results | Record sales $7.1 billion up 34% year over year and 13% sequentially; adjusted EPS $1.48 above guidance high end and consensus; adjusted operating margin 3.1% up about 40 basis points sequentially | Avnet Q3 FY2026 earnings release and Q3 FY2026 earnings call, April 29, 2026 | August 3, 2026 |
| Q4 FY2026 guidance | Sales of $7.3 billion to $7.6 billion and diluted EPS of $1.70 to $1.80, implying about 5% sequential sales growth at the midpoint | Avnet Q3 FY2026 earnings call | August 3, 2026 |
| Memory pricing impact | About half of sequential sales growth and about a quarter of year-over-year sales growth came from higher memory pricing | Avnet Q3 FY2026 earnings call | August 3, 2026 |
| Segment revenue | Electronic Components TTM revenue $23.29 billion; Farnell TTM revenue $1.67 billion | StockAnalysis.com financials by segment | August 3, 2026 |
| Cash and debt | Cash $202.44 million, total debt $3.17 billion, net cash position of negative $2.97 billion, book value $4.95 billion | StockAnalysis.com balance sheet | August 3, 2026 |
| Cash flow | TTM operating cash flow $149.29 million, capital expenditures negative $116.41 million, free cash flow $32.88 million | StockAnalysis.com cash flow statement | August 3, 2026 |
| Valuation ratios | PE ratio 34.74, forward PE 11.70, PS 0.29, PB 1.47, EV to EBITDA 16.03 | StockAnalysis.com statistics | August 3, 2026 |
| Dividend | $1.40 annual dividend, 1.58% yield, 12 years of dividend growth, payout ratio 54.75% | StockAnalysis.com statistics and dividend page | August 3, 2026 |
| Analyst consensus | Hold consensus with average target $89.50 from 4 analysts (low $72, median $95, high $96) | StockAnalysis.com forecast and analyst ratings | August 3, 2026 |
| FY2026 and FY2027 estimates | FY2026 revenue estimate $26.86 billion with adjusted EPS $5.13; FY2027 revenue estimate $30.33 billion with adjusted EPS $7.98 | StockAnalysis.com financial forecast | August 3, 2026 |
| 52-week range | $44.25 to $95.26, about 7% below the high | StockAnalysis.com and Barchart | August 3, 2026 |
| Short interest | 6.51 million shares short, 7.94% of shares out, 8.00% of float, 4.98 days to cover | StockAnalysis.com statistics | August 3, 2026 |
This AVT AI stock analysis is an informational tool for research and education only. It is not investment advice, a recommendation, or a guarantee of future performance. Forecast ranges are scenarios based on available data as of August 3, 2026 and can be wrong if new filings, market prices, company events, or macro conditions change.
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