Arrow Electronics, Inc. research snapshot
ARW AI stock analysis currently views Arrow Electronics as a global technology distributor recovering from a multi-year components downturn, with strong first-quarter 2026 sales and EPS and still-thin structural margins. At the July 12, 2026 data cutoff, StockAnalysis and Morningstar showed ARW near $206.41 with about 51.13 million shares outstanding, and financial_rigor.py verified a market value of about $10.55 billion. FY2025 sales were $30.85 billion with $571 million of net income attributable to shareholders, while Q1 2026 sales rose 39% to $9.47 billion. The ARW AI stock forecast is scenario-based rather than a precise prediction. This page is informational research, not investment advice.
Current price
$206.41
Market cap
$10.55 billion
AI score
70 / 100
Rating
Cyclical recovery, thin-margin distribution
Trend status
Above 200-day trend, below recent 52-week high
Data cutoff (updated weekly)
July 12, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Arrow sources and engineers technology solutions through Global Components and Global Enterprise Computing Solutions, connecting manufacturers with industrial, commercial, and channel customers worldwide. | High |
| Moat | Scale, supplier franchises, logistics, design-in support, trade credit, and ECS cloud or infrastructure reach are real advantages, but pricing power is limited and switching costs are moderate in distribution. | Medium-high |
| Management | Bill Austen has served as interim president and CEO since September 2025 after Sean Kerins departed. Capital allocation has emphasized working-capital discipline, cost programs, and share repurchases, while a permanent CEO search continues. | Medium |
| Financial trend | FY2025 sales rose 10% to $30.85 billion and GAAP diluted EPS was $10.93. Q1 2026 sales rose 39% to $9.47 billion, GAAP diluted EPS was $4.55, and operating cash flow was about $700 million. | High |
| Valuation | Using the $206.41 quote and about $13.98 trailing EPS, financial_rigor.py verified roughly 14.76x trailing earnings, about 1.60x book value, and no indicated dividend yield. | Medium |
| Technical trend | July snapshots placed ARW well above the longer-term 200-day area and below the $237.33 52-week high, after a large rebound from the $101.79 52-week low. The setup is constructive but not a clean breakout. | Medium |
| Risk level | Risk is moderate to high because gross and operating margins are thin, inventory and receivables are large, supplier and customer terms matter, leadership is interim, and semiconductor or IT cycles can reverse quickly. | High |
| AI confidence | High for filings, current quote math, and the business map. Medium for technical levels and future earnings because they change with market conditions, vendor programs, and management transition. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | Medium certainty. The cyclical recovery is visible in reported results, but a distributor should be judged on margin resilience, cash conversion, balance-sheet discipline, and leadership continuity rather than one strong quarter. | Medium |
ARW AI stock forecast
The ARW AI stock forecast uses a three-year scenario framework around the $206.41 July 10 close, not a point target. financial_rigor.py modeled $13.98 trailing EPS with 12%, 5%, and negative 5% annual EPS growth, then 16x, 12x, and 8x exit multiples. The mechanical outcomes were about $314.30, $194.20, and $95.90 before dividends, taxes, execution risk, or changes in the share count.
$280 to $315
More likely if the components cycle stays in recovery, ECS cloud and AI infrastructure demand holds, value-added mix expands margins, working capital stays disciplined, and earnings compound near the modelled 12% rate with a mid-teens multiple.
$170 to $220
More likely if sales growth normalizes after the Q1 surge, margins remain low but stable, free cash flow is uneven through the year, and investors keep a low-teens earnings multiple on a cyclical distributor.
$95 to $150
More likely if component demand fades, supplier or customer terms tighten, inventory or credit losses rise, interim-CEO transition becomes disruptive, or the market assigns a trough distribution multiple.
ARW AI technical analysis
ARW AI technical analysis uses the $206.41 July 10 close and moving-average references published around early July 2026. Yahoo Finance listed a 50-day moving average near $210.81 and a 200-day moving average near $149.86, with a 52-week range of $101.79 to $237.33. These are static references, so confirm live price, volume, and earnings timing before acting.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $206.41 | Market snapshots around July 10, 2026 listed ARW near $206.41. It is not a live quote. |
| Near support | $190 to $205 | Price sits near the short-term average zone. A broader support band includes the high-$180s to low-$200s after the 2026 rebound. |
| Near resistance | $220 to $237 | June trading pushed into the low-$230s, and the cited 52-week high is $237.33. A move through this area needs volume confirmation. |
| 50-day moving average | About $210.81 | Yahoo Finance statistic around early July 2026. It is an approximate historical reference. |
| 200-day moving average | About $149.86 | Yahoo Finance statistic around early July 2026. Price was well above this longer-term trend reference in the cited snapshots. |
| Momentum | Constructive after a large rebound | ARW more than doubled from the 52-week low, but was still below the 52-week high and near the 50-day area, so a sustained hold above short-term support is more informative than a one-day move. |
| Volume | Confirm against current average volume | Average volume around 0.7 million shares can change sharply around earnings and sector moves. Use current chart volume rather than this static page for confirmation. |
| Volatility | Beta about 1.20 | Google Finance and other market snapshots listed beta near 1.20 around the cutoff, indicating sensitivity to market and technology-cycle moves. |
| Invalidation | Sustained failure below $190 | A break below the broader support zone alongside weaker book-to-bill, margin compression, or leadership disruption would weaken a trend-following thesis. |
ARW AI trading strategy
The ARW AI trading strategy is a non-personalized framework for monitoring an electronics and IT distribution stock. It does not replace an investor’s own risk limits, tax analysis, or current quote and earnings review.
Monitor whether ARW holds above the $190 to $205 support band and then clears the $220 to $237 resistance area with stronger volume. Pair the chart check with evidence that components recovery and ECS demand are holding.
Invalidate the setup on a sustained break below $190, a material margin miss, or signs that inventory and receivables are rising faster than demand.
If ARW revisits $190 to $205 while Q2 guidance, supplier relationships, and credit quality remain intact, wait for price stabilization and a recovery toward the short-term average before treating the pullback as constructive.
Do not average down solely because price fell. Reassess if the decline follows weaker component demand, supplier-program changes, or cash-conversion deterioration.
Track Global Components and ECS sales, operating margins, book-to-bill, free cash flow, inventory, accounts receivable, debt, share repurchases, permanent CEO progress, and the Q2 2026 non-GAAP EPS outlook of $4.32 to $4.52.
Reduce confidence if strong revenue growth is not matched by stable margins and working-capital discipline, or if a major supplier, customer, or leadership transition turns adverse.
Investment research summary
Customers pay Arrow for broad component and computing product access, design-in support, logistics, financing, and ECS cloud or infrastructure solutions without building the full distribution stack themselves.
Global scale, supplier franchises, multi-region logistics, engineering services, trade credit, and ECS billings create an operating moat. The limitation is thin gross and operating margins and competitive terms with Avnet and other channel peers.
The thesis fails if the components cycle rolls over, large suppliers or customers change terms, inventory turns worsen, ECS contract losses recur, free cash flow stays weak, or interim leadership becomes a prolonged distraction.
Bill Austen became interim president and CEO in September 2025 after Sean Kerins separated. His capital-allocation test is managing recovery growth, working capital, debt, cost programs, and buybacks while the board searches for a permanent CEO.
Semiconductor restocking, industrial and auto electronics, cloud, cybersecurity, and AI infrastructure can expand channel opportunity. The same trends can create sharp demand swings, inventory risk, and supplier-mix shifts.
The verified mid-teens trailing PE is not extreme for a cyclical rebound, but the stock already rerated hard from the 52-week low. A margin of safety would require confidence that profit and cash conversion can hold through a normal components and IT spending cycle.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| ARW price and shares outstanding | $206.41 and about 51.13M shares | StockAnalysis, Morningstar, and market quote snapshots | July 12, 2026 |
| Market capitalization | $10.55B, mechanically verified as price times shares | StockAnalysis plus financial_rigor.py | July 12, 2026 |
| FY2025 sales and net income | $30.85B sales and $571M net income attributable to shareholders | Arrow Electronics FY2025 results release | July 12, 2026 |
| FY2025 diluted EPS | GAAP $10.93 and non-GAAP $11.02 | Arrow Electronics FY2025 results release | July 12, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 sales and earnings | $9.47B sales, up 39%; $235M net income; GAAP diluted EPS $4.55; non-GAAP diluted EPS $5.22 | Arrow Electronics Q1 2026 results release | July 12, 2026 |
| Cash and debt at April 4, 2026 | $286.5M cash; $113.4M short-term borrowings; $2.35B long-term debt | Arrow Electronics Q1 2026 balance sheet | July 12, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 outlook | Sales $9.15B to $9.75B; non-GAAP diluted EPS $4.32 to $4.52 | Arrow Electronics Q1 2026 results release | July 12, 2026 |
| Technical reference levels | 50-day average about $210.81; 200-day average about $149.86; 52-week range $101.79 to $237.33 | Yahoo Finance and market technical snapshots | July 12, 2026 |
This page is an informational tool, not investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell ARW. Forecasts are scenarios based on available data and assumptions, may be wrong, and can change with market prices, company results, semiconductor demand, IT spending, supplier terms, management changes, or new information.
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