Arrow Electronics, Inc. research snapshot
ARW AI stock analysis as of the August 3, 2026 data cutoff reads Arrow Electronics as a broad-based electronics and enterprise computing recovery story that is still priced at a discount to its forward earnings. The stock closed at $216.57 on July 31, 2026, up about 67% over the trailing 52 weeks, with a market capitalization of about $11.07 billion, re-verified during this full refresh as $216.57 times 51.13 million shares outstanding and matching the StockAnalysis.com quote and statistics pages. Q1 2026, reported May 7, 2026, delivered sales of $9.47 billion, up 39%, GAAP diluted EPS of $4.55, and non-GAAP diluted EPS of $5.22, up 190% from $1.80 a year earlier, with book-to-bill ratios above parity in all three regions and backlog building into the third and fourth quarters. The Q2 2026 outlook calls for sales of $9.15 billion to $9.75 billion and non-GAAP diluted EPS of $4.32 to $4.52, and the Q2 2026 report is scheduled for August 6, 2026 after market close. The stock trades at about 15.50x trailing GAAP EPS and 11.16x forward earnings, with analyst targets ranging from $175 to $260 and a $222 average. The main offsets are a Dell Enterprise Computing Solutions relationship ending per CRN reporting that Raymond James called likely immaterial, thin distribution margins, a high P/FCF of about 36.46x because trailing free cash flow is still modest, an interim CEO with a permanent search ongoing, and elevated working capital during growth. This page is informational research, not investment advice.
Current price
$216.57
Market cap
$11.07 billion
AI score
72 / 100
Rating
Cyclical recovery at a discounted forward multiple
Trend status
Above all major moving averages, below the 52-week high
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Arrow sources and engineers technology solutions through Global Components and Global Enterprise Computing Solutions, connecting manufacturers, service providers, and enterprise computing users across 96 countries, with TTM revenue near $33.5 billion and operating margin near 3.4%. | High |
| Moat | Scale, supplier franchises, multi-region logistics, design-in and demand-creation support, trade credit, ArrowSphere, supply chain services, and ECS cloud or infrastructure reach are real advantages, but pricing power is limited and switching costs are moderate in distribution. | Medium-high |
| Management | Bill Austen has served as interim president and CEO since September 2025 after Sean Kerins departed. Capital allocation has emphasized working-capital discipline, cost programs, a new $1 billion repurchase authorization effective May 12, 2026, and share buybacks, while a permanent CEO search continues. | Medium |
| Financial trend | FY2025 sales rose 10% to $30.85 billion with GAAP EPS of $10.93. Q1 2026 sales rose 39% to $9.47 billion, GAAP diluted EPS was $4.55, non-GAAP diluted EPS was $5.22, and operating cash flow was about $700 million. Q2 2026 guidance is sales of $9.15 billion to $9.75 billion and non-GAAP diluted EPS of $4.32 to $4.52. | High |
| Valuation | Using the $216.57 close, StockAnalysis.com reported a trailing PE of 15.50, a forward PE of 11.16, a PEG of 0.37, a price-to-book of 1.64, and EV/EBITDA of 11.39. financial_rigor.py re-verified 15.50x trailing EPS and 1.64x book value. | Medium |
| Technical trend | Barchart placed ARW above its 5-day, 20-day, 100-day, and 200-day moving averages and just above the 50-day average near $215.48, with a 14-day RSI near 55, after a large rebound from the $101.79 52-week low toward the $237.33 high. | Medium |
| Risk level | Risk is moderate to high because gross and operating margins are thin, inventory and receivables are large, the Dell ECS relationship is ending per CRN reporting, memory prices are rising, supplier and customer terms matter, leadership is interim, and semiconductor or IT cycles can reverse quickly. | High |
| AI confidence | High for filings, current quote math, and the business map. Medium for technical levels and future earnings because they change with market conditions, vendor programs, the Q2 2026 report, and the management transition. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | Medium certainty. The cyclical recovery is visible in reported results, but a distributor should be judged on margin resilience, cash conversion, balance-sheet discipline, and leadership continuity rather than one strong quarter. | Medium |
ARW AI stock forecast
The ARW AI stock forecast uses a three-year scenario framework around the July 31, 2026 close of $216.57 and the FY2026 consensus non-GAAP EPS estimate of about $19.98, not a point target. financial_rigor.py modeled EPS growth of 15%, 8%, and 2% per year with exit multiples of 14x, 11x, and 8x. The mechanical outcomes were about $425, $277, and $170 before dividends, taxes, execution risk, or changes in the share count. Analyst targets on StockAnalysis.com range from a low of $175 to a high of $260 with a $222 average.
$400 to $445
More likely if the components and IT recovery holds, book-to-bill stays well above parity, value-added services and ArrowSphere keep expanding margins, memory price inflation is passed through, the Dell ECS handoff proves immaterial, and earnings compound near the modelled growth rate with a mid-teens exit multiple.
$260 to $295
More likely if sales growth normalizes after the Q1 surge, Q2 2026 lands inside the guidance range of $9.15 billion to $9.75 billion, margins remain low but stable, free cash flow improves from the modest trailing level, and investors hold a low-to-mid-teens forward multiple.
$160 to $185
More likely if memory-driven pre-ordering unwinds, the Dell ECS termination spreads to other vendor terms, inventory or credit losses rise, cash conversion stays weak, the interim-CEO transition becomes disruptive, or the market assigns a trough distribution multiple near the $175 Wells Fargo target.
ARW AI technical analysis
ARW AI technical analysis uses the $216.57 July 31, 2026 close and moving-average references published by Barchart and StockAnalysis.com around the August 2026 data cutoff. Barchart listed a 5-day moving average near $211.80, a 20-day near $207.70, a 50-day near $215.48, a 100-day near $191.92, and a 200-day near $157.47, with a 14-day RSI near 55.18 and a 52-week range of $101.79 to $237.33. These are static references, so confirm live price, volume, and earnings timing before acting.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $216.57 | StockAnalysis.com listed the July 31, 2026 close near $216.57, up 1.75% on the day. It is not a live quote. |
| Near support | $207 to $212 | The 5-day average near $211.80 and the 20-day average near $207.70 form the first support zone after the 2026 rebound. |
| Next support | $185 to $192 | The 100-day moving average near $191.92 sits below price and becomes a stronger support reference if the short-term averages break. |
| Near resistance | $220 to $237 | June trading pushed into the low-$230s, and the cited 52-week high is $237.33. A move through this area needs volume confirmation. |
| 50-day moving average | About $215.48 | Barchart and StockAnalysis.com both reported the 50-day average near $215.48, just below the current close. It is an approximate historical reference. |
| 200-day moving average | About $157.47 | Barchart reported the 200-day trend line near $157.47, well below price. ARW held above this longer-term reference in the cited snapshots. |
| Momentum | Neutral to constructive | 14-day RSI near 55.18 on Barchart and StockAnalysis.com is not overbought, and price remains above all major moving averages, but a sustained hold above the 50-day area is more informative than a one-day move. |
| Volume | Confirm against current average volume | Barchart listed 20-day average volume near 517,000 shares and StockAnalysis.com near 515,000. Volume can change sharply around earnings and sector moves. |
| Volatility | Beta about 1.20 | Google Finance, StockAnalysis.com, and other market snapshots listed beta near 1.20 around the cutoff, indicating sensitivity to market and technology-cycle moves. |
| Invalidation | Sustained failure below $207 | A break below the 20-day average near $207.70 alongside weaker book-to-bill, margin compression, the Dell ECS transition, or leadership disruption would weaken a trend-following thesis. |
ARW AI trading strategy
The ARW AI trading strategy is a non-personalized framework for monitoring an electronics and IT distribution stock. It does not replace an investor’s own risk limits, tax analysis, or current quote and earnings review. The Q2 2026 report is scheduled for August 6, 2026 after market close.
Monitor whether ARW holds above the $207 to $212 support band and then clears the $220 to $237 resistance area with stronger volume. Pair the chart check with evidence that components recovery, book-to-bill, and ECS demand are holding into the Q2 2026 report.
Invalidate the setup on a sustained break below $207, a material margin miss, signs that inventory and receivables are rising faster than demand, or negative news from the Dell ECS transition.
If ARW revisits the $207 to $212 zone while Q2 guidance, supplier relationships, and credit quality remain intact, wait for price stabilization and a recovery toward the 50-day average near $215.48 before treating the pullback as constructive.
Do not average down solely because price fell. Reassess if the decline follows weaker component demand, supplier-program changes, memory-driven demand reversal, or cash-conversion deterioration.
Track Global Components and ECS sales, operating margins, book-to-bill, free cash flow, inventory, accounts receivable, debt, share repurchases, the permanent CEO search, the Dell ECS transition, and the Q2 2026 report due August 6, 2026 with guidance of $9.15 billion to $9.75 billion in sales and $4.32 to $4.52 in non-GAAP EPS.
Reduce confidence if strong revenue growth is not matched by stable margins and working-capital discipline, or if a major supplier, customer, or leadership transition turns adverse.
Investment research summary
Customers pay Arrow for broad component and enterprise computing product access, design-in and demand-creation support, logistics, trade credit, supply chain services, and ECS cloud or infrastructure solutions without building the full distribution stack themselves.
Global scale, supplier franchises, multi-region logistics, ArrowSphere, engineering and demand-creation services, trade credit, and ECS billings create an operating moat. The limitation is thin gross and operating margins and competitive terms with Avnet and other channel peers.
The thesis fails if the components cycle rolls over, memory-driven pre-ordering unwinds, the Dell ECS termination broadens into wider vendor-term pressure, inventory or receivables quality deteriorates, free cash flow stays weak, or interim leadership becomes a prolonged distraction.
Bill Austen became interim president and CEO in September 2025 after Sean Kerins separated. His capital-allocation test is managing recovery growth, working capital, debt, cost programs, the new $1 billion buyback, and the June 2, 2026 guidance that leadership compensation will be tied to relative total shareholder return while the board searches for a permanent CEO.
Semiconductor restocking, industrial, transportation, and aerospace and defense demand, cloud, cybersecurity, and AI infrastructure can expand channel opportunity. The same trends can create sharp demand swings, memory price inflation, inventory risk, and supplier-mix shifts.
The verified trailing PE near 15.50 and forward PE near 11.16 are not extreme for a cyclical rebound, but the stock already rerated hard from the 52-week low and trades near 36.5x trailing free cash flow because cash conversion has not caught up to reported earnings. A margin of safety would require confidence that profit and cash conversion can hold through a normal components and IT spending cycle.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| ARW price and shares outstanding | $216.57 close and about 51.13M shares | StockAnalysis.com quote and share statistics | August 3, 2026 |
| Market capitalization | $11.07B, mechanically verified as $216.57 x 51.13M shares | StockAnalysis.com statistics plus financial_rigor.py | August 3, 2026 |
| TTM revenue and net income | $33.51B revenue and $726.65M net income through April 4, 2026 | StockAnalysis.com financials | August 3, 2026 |
| TTM earnings per share | $13.97 or $13.98 depending on rounding basis | StockAnalysis.com statistics and financials | August 3, 2026 |
| FY2025 results | $30.85B sales, up 10.49%; $571.27M net income; GAAP diluted EPS $10.93 | StockAnalysis.com financials and Arrow FY2025 reporting | August 3, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 results | $9.474B sales, up 39%; $235.1M net income attributable; GAAP diluted EPS $4.55; non-GAAP diluted EPS $5.22 | Arrow Electronics Q1 2026 results release | May 7, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 segment detail | Global Components sales $6.64B, up 39%; Global ECS sales $2.83B, up 39%; ECS gross billings $6.43B, up 39% | Arrow Electronics Q1 2026 results release | May 7, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 outlook | Sales $9.15B to $9.75B; GAAP diluted EPS $3.91 to $4.11; non-GAAP diluted EPS $4.32 to $4.52 | Arrow Electronics Q1 2026 results release | May 7, 2026 |
| Balance sheet at April 4, 2026 | Cash $286.5M; accounts receivable $25.96B; inventory $5.72B; total assets $35.95B; total debt $2.47B; total equity $6.82B | Arrow Electronics Q1 2026 release balance sheet | August 3, 2026 |
| TTM cash flow | Operating cash flow $412.12M; capital expenditures $108.38M; free cash flow $303.74M; FCF per share $5.94 | StockAnalysis.com cash flow statement | August 3, 2026 |
| Valuation check | Trailing PE 15.50, forward PE 11.16, PEG 0.37, PS 0.33, PB 1.64, P/TBV 2.43, P/FCF 36.46, EV/EBITDA 11.39 | StockAnalysis.com statistics plus financial_rigor.py | August 3, 2026 |
| Analyst consensus | Hold with an average target of $222 across 4 analysts, low $175 and high $260, median $226.50 | StockAnalysis.com forecast | August 3, 2026 |
| Recent analyst targets | Wells Fargo Sell at $175 from $165 on July 20; BofA Hold at $233 on July 2; Truist Buy at $260 on June 30; Raymond James Buy at $220 on May 8 | StockAnalysis.com forecast | August 3, 2026 |
| FY2026 and FY2027 consensus estimates | FY2026 revenue $38.77B with non-GAAP EPS $19.98; FY2027 revenue $40.44B with non-GAAP EPS $21.44 | StockAnalysis.com forecast | August 3, 2026 |
| Short interest | 1.48M shares short, 2.89% of shares outstanding, 2.36 days to cover | StockAnalysis.com statistics short selling | August 3, 2026 |
| Technical snapshot | 5-day SMA near $211.80, 20-day SMA near $207.70, 50-day SMA near $215.48, 100-day SMA near $191.92, 200-day SMA near $157.47, 14-day RSI near 55.18, 14-day historical volatility near 33.7% | Barchart and StockAnalysis.com technical snapshots | August 3, 2026 |
| Dell ECS relationship | CRN reported that Dell is ending its enterprise computing distribution relationship with Arrow ECS after a formal review and RFP; Raymond James said the Dell termination earnings impact is likely immaterial | StockAnalysis.com news feed and Raymond James commentary | August 3, 2026 |
| Share repurchase program | New $1B repurchase authorization effective May 12, 2026, replacing a prior program that had about $150M left | Arrow Electronics news release and StockAnalysis.com | August 3, 2026 |
This page is an informational tool, not investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell ARW. Forecasts are scenarios based on available data and assumptions, may be wrong, and can change with market prices, company results, semiconductor and IT demand, memory pricing, supplier terms, the Dell ECS transition, management changes, or new information.
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