Ares Management Corporation research snapshot
ARES AI stock analysis reads Ares Management as a scaled alternative asset manager whose Q2 2026 results showed record fundraising of more than $36 billion, fee related earnings of $491.1 million, and AUM above $671 billion as of June 30, 2026, but the stock still carries private-credit liquidity, leverage, and valuation risk. At the August 2, 2026 data cutoff, ARES closed at $128.09 on July 31, 2026, with a verified market capitalization near $42.25 billion. The ARES AI stock forecast is scenario-based because reported GAAP earnings, fund marks, fee-related earnings, credit spreads, fundraising, and retail redemption behavior can move in different directions. This page is informational research and not investment advice.
Current price
$128.09
Market cap
$42.25 billion
AI score
67 / 100
Rating
Strong Q2 fundraising and realized income, offset by credit-cycle and valuation risk
Trend status
Rebounding above the 50-day average after Q2 earnings, still below the 200-day average
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Ares manages credit, real estate, private equity, and infrastructure strategies. Its business quality is supported by scale, recurring management fees, record fundraising, and long-duration private-market demand. | High |
| Moat | The moat comes from credit underwriting scale, institutional relationships, fund performance history, sourcing reach, permanent and long-duration capital, and a broad product platform. | Medium-high |
| Management | CEO Michael Arougheti and the team have compounded AUM above $671 billion and delivered another record fundraising quarter, but management should still be judged by credit discipline, fee-related earnings quality, and capital allocation through a harder credit cycle. | Medium-high |
| Financial trend | Q2 2026 AUM was above $671 billion, Q2 revenue and GAAP net income attributable to Ares Management Corporation were $150.6 million, after-tax realized income was $467.6 million or $1.29 per share, and fee related earnings were $491.1 million. TTM revenue was $5.99 billion. | High |
| Valuation | At $128.09, verified math shows about 58.6x TTM GAAP EPS, 11.3x book value per share, 26.2x free cash flow per share, and about a 3.8% FCF yield. The forward PE near 19.9x is lower, but the stock still needs continued fee and realized income growth to support the multiple. | Medium-high |
| Technical trend | ARES sits above its 50-day moving average near $123.78 but below its 200-day moving average near $134.29. Momentum is positive but not confirmed, so the chart shows repair rather than a clean long-term uptrend. | Medium |
| Risk level | Risk is medium-high because private credit can look stable until defaults, recovery values, retail redemptions, withdrawal caps, marks, or liquidity conditions change. Total debt near $14.15 billion and a 236.7% GAAP dividend payout ratio are also notable. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | High for reported historical data and current quote math; medium for normalized earnings, cycle timing, and private-credit loss assumptions. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | Medium certainty. Ares is a real scale platform with strong Q2 momentum, but the margin of safety depends on credit outcomes, retail flow durability, and entry valuation, not only on AUM growth. | Medium |
ARES AI stock forecast
The ARES AI stock forecast uses scenario ranges rather than a precise price promise. Analyst targets from S&P Global data show a $122 to $162 range with a $141.61 average across 18 analysts, while the audited three-year adjusted EPS model produced about $90 in a bear case, $134 in a base case, and $183 in a bull case before dividends. The base case becomes more credible if fee-paying AUM, management fees, realized income, and credit performance stay strong through Q3 and Q4 2026.
$165 to $200
More likely if private-credit demand remains strong, fundraising stays broad, fee-paying AUM compounds, credit losses stay contained, realized income improves, and the market applies a premium alternative-manager multiple. The verified model used 12% adjusted EPS growth and a 22x terminal multiple.
$125 to $145
More likely if adjusted EPS grows near 8%, the analyst target cluster remains stable, AUM growth continues, and the stock reclaims the 200-day average without a credit-loss or redemption warning. The verified model base case was about $134.
$85 to $100
More likely if private-credit marks worsen, retail redemption pressure or withdrawal caps increase, debt costs stay high, realized performance fees disappoint, or investors value ARES at a lower multiple. The verified model bear case was about $90.
ARES AI technical analysis
ARES AI technical analysis starts from the $128.09 July 31, 2026 close, up 3.20% after Q2 results. StockAnalysis listed a 50-day moving average of $123.78, a 200-day moving average of $134.29, RSI of 58.20, and 20-day average volume near 2.06 million shares. Barchart listed similar moving averages plus a 20-day average near $123.13 and a 100-day average near $118.18. The setup is improving but neutral to weak until price can hold above the 50-day average and then reclaim the 200-day average.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $128.09 | Latest verified close used for this page, reported for July 31, 2026, up 3.20% after Q2 2026 results. |
| Near support | $121 to $124 | This zone covers the recent quote area and the 20-day and 50-day moving-average cluster, and should be watched for failed rebounds after earnings or credit-market news. |
| 50-day moving average | $123.78 | Price is slightly above this reference, so ARES needs to hold it to improve the short-term trend. |
| Near resistance | $130 to $135 | This range includes the 200-day moving average near $134.29 and nearby trading congestion from the July rally. |
| 200-day moving average | $134.29 | A sustained move above this level would be the first sign that the medium-term downtrend is repairing. |
| Momentum | RSI 58.20 | Momentum is positive but not overbought, so the rebound can continue, yet ADX near 14 shows the trend is not strongly established. |
| Volume | 20-day average near 2.06 million shares | A breakout should be checked against above-average volume because alternative-manager stocks can move sharply around earnings and credit headlines. |
| Volatility | Beta 1.50, 14-day historical volatility near 33.5% | ARES has been more volatile than the broad market, so position sizing and invalidation levels matter. |
| Invalidation | Close below $121 or a redemption or credit-loss warning | A decisive close below the recent support zone, weaker fundraising commentary, higher withdrawal caps, or adverse credit marks would reduce confidence in the base case. |
ARES AI trading strategy
The ARES AI trading strategy is a rules-based framework for an alternative asset manager, not personalized advice. It should be paired with live price, Q3 2026 earnings, fundraising, AUM flows, fee-related earnings, realized income, redemption behavior, credit spreads, default data, dividend policy, and predefined risk limits.
Watch whether ARES can hold the 50-day moving average near $124, then challenge the 200-day moving average near $134 with volume above the 20-day average. Fundamental confirmation should include stable AUM, management-fee growth, realized income, and no credit-loss or redemption surprise.
Reduce confidence if price fails below $121, Q3 commentary shows weaker fundraising, or credit or redemption metrics deteriorate.
If ARES weakens toward the low $120s without a new credit, redemption, or liquidity warning, compare the new price to adjusted EPS forecasts, free cash flow, dividend coverage, debt levels, and peer alternative-manager multiples before assuming support is durable.
Do not treat a lower share price as a margin of safety by itself. A lower multiple may be justified if private-credit risk, retail outflows, or fundraising pressure is rising.
Track total AUM, fee-paying AUM, fundraising, deployment, management fees, fee related earnings, realized income, dividend payout, debt, net debt, credit performance, withdrawal caps, and retail redemption behavior.
Lower the AI score if AUM rises while earnings quality, credit marks, retail flows, or balance-sheet leverage worsen.
Investment research summary
Ares is paid to source, underwrite, and manage private-market capital for institutions and wealth clients. Customers pay because they want access to credit, real estate, infrastructure, private equity, and secondaries investments that are difficult to build internally.
The moat comes from scale in credit, long relationships with borrowers and investors, underwriting data, specialist teams, broad distribution, and a track record across market cycles. It is strongest when Ares can raise long-duration capital and deploy it with disciplined risk control.
The thesis can fail if private-credit losses rise, marks lag reality, fundraising slows, retail vehicles face redemption pressure or withdrawal caps, fee rates compress, leverage becomes a concern, or investors stop paying premium multiples for alternative managers.
Management has expanded Ares from core credit into real estate, infrastructure, secondaries, and private wealth channels, and delivered record Q2 2026 fundraising. The important capital-allocation test is whether this growth remains disciplined when credit conditions tighten.
Ares benefits from the long shift of credit and other financing away from banks and toward private markets. The trend is real, but it can slow if defaults rise, public credit becomes more attractive, regulators tighten oversight, or investors demand more liquidity.
The stock is not statistically cheap on trailing GAAP EPS or book value, though the forward PE near 19.9x is more moderate. Margin of safety improves only if adjusted EPS growth, fee related earnings, AUM durability, realized income, and credit performance support the premium multiple.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| ARES price and market capitalization | $128.09 close on July 31, 2026 and $42.25 billion market capitalization | StockAnalysis statistics page | August 1, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding | 329.85 million shares outstanding, with 222.03 million in the current share class | StockAnalysis statistics page | August 1, 2026 |
| Market-cap verification | $128.09 x 329.85 million shares = $42.25 billion, 0.00% variance versus reported market cap | financial_rigor.py market-cap check | August 2, 2026 |
| AUM | More than $671 billion of assets under management as of June 30, 2026 | Ares Q2 2026 earnings release | July 31, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 GAAP results | $150.6 million GAAP net income attributable to Ares Management Corporation and $0.49 diluted EPS | Ares Q2 2026 earnings release | July 31, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 realized income and fee related earnings | $467.6 million after-tax realized income or $1.29 per share, and $491.1 million fee related earnings | Ares Q2 2026 earnings release | July 31, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 fundraising and dry powder | Record fundraising with more than $36 billion of inflows and a record $170 billion of dry powder | Ares Q2 2026 earnings release | July 31, 2026 |
| FY2025 revenue and net income | $5.60 billion revenue and $527.36 million net income, cross-validated between StockAnalysis and SEC XBRL companyfacts | StockAnalysis overview and SEC companyfacts for Ares Management | August 2, 2026 |
| TTM financials | $5.99 billion revenue, $577.67 million net income, $2.22 EPS, and $1.61 billion free cash flow | StockAnalysis statistics page | August 1, 2026 |
| Cash and debt | $1.44 billion cash and $14.15 billion total debt, with net debt near $12.71 billion | StockAnalysis balance sheet | August 1, 2026 |
| Valuation ratios | 58.63x PE, 19.89x forward PE, 7.06x price to sales, 11.26x price to book, and 26.19x price to free cash flow | StockAnalysis ratios page and financial_rigor.py valuation check | August 2, 2026 |
| Analyst forecast context | 18-analyst consensus Buy rating, $141.61 average price target, $122 low target, and $162 high target | StockAnalysis forecast page | July 28, 2026 |
| Recent analyst target updates | TD Cowen $153, Morgan Stanley $160 from $163, Oppenheimer $140 from $146, Goldman Sachs $139 from $137, RBC Capital $162 | StockAnalysis forecast latest forecasts | July 28, 2026 |
| Dividend | $1.35 quarterly or $5.40 annualized, 4.22% yield, and a GAAP payout ratio of 236.65% | StockAnalysis statistics page | August 1, 2026 |
| Technical inputs | $123.78 50-day moving average, $134.29 200-day moving average, RSI 58.20, and 20-day average volume near 2.06 million | StockAnalysis statistics and Barchart technical analysis | July 31, 2026 |
This ARES AI stock analysis is an informational tool only and is not investment advice, a recommendation, or a guarantee of future returns. Forecasts are scenario-based, rely on available public data as of August 2, 2026, and may be wrong if earnings, credit conditions, interest rates, investor flows, redemption behavior, regulation, or market multiples change.
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