Ares Management Corporation research snapshot
ARES AI stock analysis currently reads Ares Management as a scaled alternative asset manager with a large private-credit franchise, $644 billion of AUM as of March 31, 2026, and strong fee growth, but the stock still carries credit-cycle, leverage, and valuation risk. At the July 8, 2026 data cutoff, ARES closed at $120.70 on July 7, 2026, with a verified market capitalization near $39.81 billion. The ARES AI stock forecast is scenario-based because reported GAAP earnings, fund marks, fee-related earnings, credit spreads, and fundraising can move in different directions. This page is informational research and not investment advice.
Current price
$120.70
Market cap
$39.81 billion
AI score
64 / 100
Rating
High-quality alternative asset manager with strong AUM growth but credit-cycle and valuation risk
Trend status
Recovering near the 50-day average but still below the 200-day average
Data cutoff (updated weekly)
July 8, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Ares manages credit, real estate, private equity, infrastructure, and secondaries strategies. Its business quality is supported by scale, recurring management fees, and long-duration private-market demand. | High |
| Moat | The moat comes from credit underwriting scale, institutional relationships, fund performance history, sourcing reach, permanent and long-duration capital, and a broad product platform. | Medium-high |
| Management | CEO Michael Arougheti and the team have compounded AUM and expanded beyond core credit, but management should be judged by credit discipline, fee-related earnings quality, and capital allocation through a harder credit cycle. | Medium-high |
| Financial trend | Q1 2026 AUM was about $644 billion, Q1 2026 revenue was about $1.40 billion, and GAAP net income attributable to Ares Management Corporation was $142.6 million. TTM third-party revenue was $5.91 billion. | High |
| Valuation | At $120.70, verified math shows about 56.1x TTM GAAP EPS, 10.6x book value per share, 24.7x free cash flow per share, and about a 4.1% FCF yield. The stock needs continued fee growth to support the multiple. | Medium-high |
| Technical trend | ARES sits near its 50-day moving average but below its 200-day moving average. Momentum is neutral, so the chart shows repair rather than a confirmed long-term uptrend. | Medium |
| Risk level | Risk is medium-high because private credit can look stable until defaults, recovery values, fundraising, marks, or liquidity conditions change. Total debt and net debt are also material. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | High for reported historical data and current quote math; medium for normalized earnings, cycle timing, and private-credit loss assumptions. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | Medium certainty. Ares is a real scale platform, but the margin of safety depends on credit outcomes and entry valuation, not only on AUM growth. | Medium |
ARES AI stock forecast
The ARES AI stock forecast uses scenario ranges rather than a precise price promise. Analyst targets from S&P Global data show a $125 to $190 range with a $145.41 average, while the audited three-year adjusted EPS model produced about $88 in a bear case, $158 in a base case, and $246 in a bull case before dividends. The base case becomes more credible if fee-paying AUM, management fees, and credit performance stay strong through Q2 and Q3 2026.
$200 to $250
More likely if private-credit demand remains strong, fundraising stays broad, fee-paying AUM compounds, credit losses stay contained, performance income improves, and the market applies a premium alternative-manager multiple. The verified model used 20% adjusted EPS growth and a 24x terminal multiple.
$145 to $165
More likely if adjusted EPS grows near low double digits, the analyst target cluster remains stable, AUM growth continues, and the stock reclaims the 200-day average without a credit-loss warning. The verified model base case was about $158.
$85 to $95
More likely if private-credit marks worsen, retail flows weaken, debt costs stay high, realized performance fees disappoint, or investors value ARES at a lower multiple. The verified model bear case was about $88.
ARES AI technical analysis
ARES AI technical analysis starts from the $120.70 July 7, 2026 close. StockAnalysis listed a 50-day moving average of $122.82, a 200-day moving average of $137.61, RSI of 49.63, and 20-day average volume near 2.51 million shares. Barchart listed similar moving averages and a 14-day relative strength reading near 49.63. The setup is neutral to weak until price can hold above the 50-day average and then reclaim the 200-day average.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $120.70 | Latest verified close used for this page, reported for July 7, 2026. |
| Near support | $116 to $121 | This zone covers the recent quote area and should be watched for failed rebounds after earnings or credit-market news. |
| 50-day moving average | $122.82 | Price is slightly below this reference, so ARES needs a clean reclaim to improve the short-term trend. |
| Near resistance | $125 to $130 | This range includes the low end of the analyst target range and nearby trading congestion. |
| 200-day moving average | $137.61 | A sustained move above this level would be the first sign that the medium-term downtrend is repairing. |
| Momentum | RSI 49.63 | Momentum is close to neutral, not oversold enough to create a stand-alone mean-reversion signal. |
| Volume | 20-day average near 2.51 million shares | A breakout should be checked against above-average volume because alternative-manager stocks can move sharply around earnings and credit headlines. |
| Volatility | Beta 1.54 | ARES has been more volatile than the broad market, so position sizing and invalidation levels matter. |
| Invalidation | Close below $116 or credit-loss warning | A decisive close below the recent support zone, weaker fundraising commentary, or adverse credit marks would reduce confidence in the base case. |
ARES AI trading strategy
The ARES AI trading strategy is a rules-based framework for an alternative asset manager, not personalized advice. It should be paired with live price, Q2 2026 earnings on July 31, fundraising, AUM flows, fee-related earnings, credit spreads, default data, dividend policy, and predefined risk limits.
Watch whether ARES can reclaim the 50-day moving average near $123, then challenge the 200-day moving average near $138 with volume above the 20-day average. Fundamental confirmation should include stable AUM, management-fee growth, and no credit-loss surprise.
Reduce confidence if price fails below $116, Q2 commentary shows weaker fundraising, or credit metrics deteriorate.
If ARES weakens toward the low $110s without a new credit or liquidity warning, compare the new price to adjusted EPS forecasts, free cash flow, dividend coverage, debt levels, and peer alternative-manager multiples before assuming support is durable.
Do not treat a lower share price as a margin of safety by itself. A lower multiple may be justified if private-credit risk or fundraising pressure is rising.
Track total AUM, fee-paying AUM, fundraising, deployment, management fees, fee-related earnings, realized income, dividend payout, debt, net debt, credit performance, and retail redemption behavior.
Lower the AI score if AUM rises while earnings quality, credit marks, or balance-sheet leverage worsen.
Investment research summary
Ares is paid to source, underwrite, and manage private-market capital for institutions and wealth clients. Customers pay because they want access to credit, real estate, infrastructure, private equity, and secondaries investments that are difficult to build internally.
The moat comes from scale in credit, long relationships with borrowers and investors, underwriting data, specialist teams, broad distribution, and a track record across market cycles. It is strongest when Ares can raise long-duration capital and deploy it with disciplined risk control.
The thesis can fail if private-credit losses rise, marks lag reality, fundraising slows, retail vehicles face redemption pressure, fee rates compress, leverage becomes a concern, or investors stop paying premium multiples for alternative managers.
Management has expanded Ares from core credit into real estate, infrastructure, secondaries, and private wealth channels. The important capital-allocation test is whether this growth remains disciplined when credit conditions tighten.
Ares benefits from the long shift of credit and other financing away from banks and toward private markets. The trend is real, but it can slow if defaults rise, public credit becomes more attractive, regulators tighten oversight, or investors demand liquidity.
The stock is not statistically cheap on GAAP EPS or book value. Margin of safety improves only if adjusted EPS growth, fee-related earnings, AUM durability, and credit performance support the premium multiple.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| ARES price and market capitalization | $120.70 close on July 7, 2026 and $39.81 billion market capitalization | StockAnalysis statistics page | July 8, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding | 329.85 million shares outstanding, with 222.03 million in the current share class | StockAnalysis statistics page | July 8, 2026 |
| Market-cap verification | $120.70 x 329.85 million shares = $39.81 billion, 0.00% variance versus reported market cap | financial_rigor.py market-cap check | July 8, 2026 |
| AUM | Approximately $644 billion of assets under management as of March 31, 2026 | Ares investor relations overview | July 8, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 GAAP results | $1.396 billion revenue and $142.6 million GAAP net income attributable to Ares Management Corporation | Ares Q1 2026 results exhibit | July 8, 2026 |
| FY2025 revenue | $5.601 billion revenue, cross-validated between SEC XBRL companyfacts and StockAnalysis | SEC companyfacts for Ares Management | July 8, 2026 |
| FY2025 net income | $527.36 million net income, cross-validated between SEC XBRL companyfacts and StockAnalysis forecast table | SEC companyfacts for Ares Management | July 8, 2026 |
| TTM financials | $5.91 billion revenue, $561.67 million net income, $2.15 EPS, and $1.61 billion free cash flow | StockAnalysis statistics page | July 8, 2026 |
| Cash and debt | $1.44 billion cash and $14.15 billion total debt, with net debt near $12.71 billion | StockAnalysis balance sheet | July 8, 2026 |
| Valuation ratios | 56.10x PE, 19.24x forward PE, 6.74x price to sales, 10.61x price to book, and 24.68x price to free cash flow | StockAnalysis ratios page | July 8, 2026 |
| Analyst forecast context | 17-analyst consensus Buy rating, $145.41 average price target, $125 low target, and $190 high target | StockAnalysis forecast page | July 8, 2026 |
| Technical inputs | $122.82 50-day moving average, $137.61 200-day moving average, RSI 49.63, and 20-day average volume near 2.51 million | StockAnalysis statistics and Barchart technical analysis | July 8, 2026 |
This ARES AI stock analysis is an informational tool only and is not investment advice, a recommendation, or a guarantee of future returns. Forecasts are scenario-based, rely on available public data as of July 8, 2026, and may be wrong if earnings, credit conditions, interest rates, investor flows, regulation, or market multiples change.
