Apollo Global Management, Inc. research snapshot
APO AI stock analysis currently reads Apollo Global Management as a scaled alternative asset manager and retirement-services platform with more than $1 trillion of AUM, record fee-related earnings, and a large private-credit origination engine. At the August 2, 2026 data cutoff, APO traded near $125.59 with a verified market capitalization near $72.40 billion. The main tension is that Apollo has strong fee-related and adjusted earnings power, while GAAP earnings remain sensitive to investment marks, Athene accounting, a one-time Bermuda tax item, credit spreads, and private-credit liquidity. Q2 2026 results are scheduled for August 4, 2026, after this cutoff. This page uses scenarios, not a certain stock price prediction, and is for informational use only.
Current price
$125.59
Market cap
$72.40 billion
AI score
66 / 100
Rating
Scale alternative asset manager with record fee-related earnings and $1 trillion of AUM, but GAAP volatility, credit-cycle exposure, and a private-credit liquidity event require discipline
Trend status
Neutral technical setup: price sits just below the 200-day average near $126.93 and near the 50-day average near $125.41, with RSI near 56 and a 52-week change of about -13.66%
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Apollo combines asset management, private credit origination, capital solutions, and Athene retirement services. Q1 2026 AUM was approximately $1.03 trillion, with fee-generating AUM near $836 billion. | High |
| Moat | The moat comes from origination scale, credit underwriting, insurer balance-sheet relationships, long-duration capital, institutional trust, and cross-platform deal flow. | Medium-high |
| Management | CEO Marc Rowan has pushed Apollo toward investment-grade private credit, retirement services, and a broader capital solutions platform, with a $4.0 billion share repurchase program approved in February 2026 and $866 million of Q1 2026 repurchases. | Medium-high |
| Financial trend | FY2025 SEC revenue was $32.049 billion and net income was $3.492 billion, while Q1 2026 revenue fell to $5.059 billion and GAAP net loss attributable to common stockholders was $1.930 billion, including a one-time $1.7 billion Bermuda tax item. Q1 2026 adjusted net income was $1.208 billion, or $1.94 per share. | High |
| Valuation | At $125.59, verified math shows 79.5x TTM GAAP EPS, 3.90x book value per share, 2.31x sales per share, 9.22x free cash flow per share, and a 1.79% dividend yield. On LTM adjusted earnings of $8.50 per share, the adjusted multiple is closer to 15x. | Medium-high |
| Technical trend | StockAnalysis listed APO near $125.59 with a 50-day moving average of $125.41, a 200-day moving average of $126.93, RSI of 55.87, and a 52-week range of $99.56 to $153.29. Price is below the 200-day average but near the 50-day average. | Medium |
| Risk level | Key risks include credit losses, Athene liability and spread sensitivity, fundraising cyclicality, performance-fee volatility, tax items, regulation, leverage, key-person risk, and private-credit liquidity after Apollo capped withdrawals from its Apollo Debt Solutions vehicle in June 2026. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | High for reported historical data, medium for normalized earnings and trading timing, and lower for the Q2 2026 report that lands after the data cutoff. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | Medium certainty. APO has platform value, but the page frames valuation and monitoring rules rather than a buy or sell instruction. | Medium |
APO AI stock forecast
The APO AI stock forecast uses scenario math around the $125.59 quote and a normalized adjusted EPS base of $8.50, equal to LTM Q1 2026 adjusted net income per share. The audited three-year framework produced a bearish area near $93.5, a base area near $156, and a bullish area near $215 before dividends, using 0%, 7%, and 10% adjusted EPS growth with 11x, 15x, and 19x exit multiples.
$200 to $225
More likely if fee-related earnings keep compounding, Athene spread earnings stabilize, private-credit demand and liquidity concerns ease, credit losses stay contained, fundraising broadens, Q2 results confirm momentum, and the market values APO closer to a premium alternative-manager multiple.
$145 to $165
More likely if adjusted EPS compounds near 7%, AUM growth remains positive, GAAP noise moderates, dividend growth continues, private-credit redemption pressure fades, and investors value normalized earnings near 15x.
$85 to $95
More likely if private-credit marks worsen, the Apollo Debt Solutions redemption event spreads, Athene spreads narrow, fundraising slows, realized performance fees disappoint, credit losses rise, Q2 results miss, or investors apply a lower multiple to complex non-GAAP earnings.
APO AI technical analysis
APO AI technical analysis is neutral as of the August 2, 2026 data cutoff. StockAnalysis listed a $125.59 July 31, 2026 close, a 50-day moving average of $125.41, a 200-day moving average of $126.93, RSI of 55.87, and average 20-day volume of about 3.87 million shares. The 52-week range is $99.56 to $153.29, and the stock is still about 18% below its 52-week high after a -13.66% one-year change.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $125.59 | StockAnalysis listed this July 31, 2026 market close, and it is the quote used for valuation and market-cap verification. |
| Short moving average | $125.41 | StockAnalysis listed the 50-day moving average just below the current price, so the near-term price is roughly in line with the one-to-two month trend rather than clearly above or below it. |
| 200-day moving average | $126.93 | APO trading slightly below this zone keeps the medium-term trend neutral to weak until price can reclaim it with follow-through. |
| Momentum | RSI 55.87 | Momentum is mildly positive but not stretched in either direction, leaving room for a breakout or a fade. |
| Volume | 3.87 million average 20-day volume | Breakout quality should be checked against participation, especially because APO can move sharply around earnings and credit-cycle news. |
| Resistance | $127 to $130 | The 200-day moving average area near $126.93 is the first major technical hurdle, followed by the $135 to $140 zone from June highs. |
| Support | $117 to $118 | July lows clustered near $117 to $118, and that zone is the first support level in this framework. |
| Invalidation | Close below $117 | A decisive break below the July support cluster would reduce confidence in any near-term recovery setup and open a retest of the 52-week low near $99.56. |
APO AI trading strategy
The APO AI trading strategy is a rules-based framework for a complex alternative asset manager and retirement-services platform. It is not personal advice and should be paired with live prices, the August 4, 2026 Q2 report, credit spreads, AUM flows, fee-related earnings, Athene metrics, private-credit redemption trends, position sizing, and a defined invalidation level.
Watch whether APO can reclaim and hold the $127 to $130 200-day moving-average area with volume above the 20-day average. Confirmation should include a stable Q2 report, positive AUM flows, no new credit-loss or private-credit redemption surprise, and no deterioration in Athene spread-related earnings.
A failed reclaim followed by a close below $117 should reduce confidence in the trend-following setup.
If APO weakens toward the $110s without a new credit, liquidity, or earnings warning, compare the new price to normalized adjusted EPS near $8.50, free cash flow, book value, dividend coverage, and peer alternative-manager multiples before assuming support is durable.
Do not average down without a maximum loss rule because complex financial stocks can reprice quickly when credit spreads, taxes, private-credit redemption trends, or insurance liabilities move against the thesis.
Track total AUM, fee-generating AUM, fee-related earnings, spread-related earnings, adjusted net income, origination volume, credit performance, Athene capitalization, dividend policy, private-credit redemption levels, and GAAP versus adjusted earnings gaps.
Reduce confidence if adjusted earnings grow while GAAP losses, credit marks, private-credit redemption pressure, leverage, or source-data gaps worsen.
Investment research summary
Apollo earns fees and spread-related income by originating and managing credit, private equity, real assets, and retirement capital. Clients pay because Apollo can source private assets, structure financing, manage complex risk, and provide long-duration capital that is hard to replicate internally.
The moat comes from scale, underwriting data, institutional relationships, Athene insurance capital, capital-solutions distribution, specialized credit teams, and a long record of raising and deploying capital across cycles.
The thesis fails if private-credit losses rise or redemptions spread after the June 2026 Apollo Debt Solutions cap, Athene liabilities reprice unfavorably, fundraising slows, performance fees fade, regulators tighten insurance or private-credit rules, or investors stop trusting adjusted earnings metrics.
Marc Rowan and the leadership team should be judged by credit discipline, organic AUM growth, fee-related earnings quality, Athene risk management, capital allocation, dividend durability, and transparency between GAAP and adjusted results.
Apollo benefits from the long shift of credit and retirement capital toward private markets, but that trend can reverse or slow if defaults rise, public credit becomes more attractive, insurers face stress, private-credit liquidity is questioned, or regulators challenge private-credit complexity.
At roughly 79.5x TTM GAAP EPS but about 15x LTM adjusted EPS of $8.50, APO requires careful interpretation. Margin of safety improves when the stock prices in credit-cycle and liquidity risk while AUM, fee-related earnings, and balance-sheet quality remain intact.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| APO price and market capitalization | $125.59 price and $72.40 billion market cap, verified as $125.59 x 576.52 million shares | StockAnalysis and financial_rigor.py market cap verification | August 2, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 AUM | Approximately $1.03 trillion of assets under management as of March 31, 2026, including $1,026 billion total AUM and $836 billion fee-generating AUM | Apollo Q1 2026 results release | August 2, 2026 |
| FY2025 revenue and net income | $32.049 billion revenue and $3.492 billion net income in SEC XBRL companyfacts | SEC companyfacts for Apollo Global Management | August 2, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 GAAP results | $5.059 billion revenue and $1.906 billion GAAP net loss attributable to Apollo Global Management, Inc. in SEC XBRL companyfacts, with a $1.930 billion GAAP net loss attributable to common stockholders | SEC companyfacts for Apollo Global Management | August 2, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 adjusted earnings bridge | Adjusted net income of $1.208 billion or $1.94 per share, driven by $728 million fee-related earnings and $719 million spread-related earnings, against $1.930 billion of GAAP net loss attributable to common stockholders | Apollo Q1 2026 earnings presentation | August 2, 2026 |
| TTM third-party financials | $31.29 billion revenue, $1.16 billion net income, $1.58 EPS, $13.62 FCF per share, and $2.25 dividend per share | StockAnalysis statistics | August 2, 2026 |
| Share count | 576.52 million current shares from StockAnalysis, cross-checked against 576,517,513 shares in the May 5, 2026 Q1 2026 10-Q filing | StockAnalysis and SEC companyfacts | August 2, 2026 |
| Cash and debt source gap | StockAnalysis listed $41.95 billion cash and $40.03 billion total debt, while SEC XBRL showed $23.748 billion cash plus restricted cash and $14.220 billion long-term debt carrying value. The page treats this as a scope difference, not a clean net cash conclusion. | StockAnalysis and SEC companyfacts | August 2, 2026 |
| Dividend | $0.5625 common dividend declared for Q1 2026, paid May 29, 2026, plus $0.8438 on the mandatory convertible preferred stock | Apollo Q1 2026 results release | August 2, 2026 |
| Share repurchases | $866 million of Q1 2026 repurchases at an average cost of $124.62, with a $4.0 billion repurchase program approved on February 9, 2026 | Apollo Q1 2026 earnings presentation | August 2, 2026 |
| Technical snapshot | StockAnalysis listed RSI 55.87, 50-day moving average $125.41, 200-day moving average $126.93, and 3.87 million average 20-day volume, with a 52-week range of $99.56 to $153.29 | StockAnalysis statistics | August 2, 2026 |
| Analyst consensus | 21 analysts with a consensus Buy rating and an average price target of $147.79, about 17.68% above the July 31, 2026 close | StockAnalysis forecast | August 2, 2026 |
| Private-credit liquidity risk context | CNBC reported on June 23, 2026 that Apollo capped withdrawals from its Apollo Debt Solutions private-credit vehicle at 5% after redemption requests reached almost 17%, or about $2.4 billion, in Q2 2026 | CNBC | August 2, 2026 |
This APO AI stock analysis page is an informational research tool only. It is not investment advice, not a recommendation to buy or sell securities, and not a promise of future returns. Forecast ranges are scenarios based on available data as of August 2, 2026 and may be wrong if fundamentals, credit spreads, private-credit redemption trends, Athene metrics, AUM flows, fee-related earnings, GAAP marks, valuation multiples, market conditions, or source data change. Q2 2026 results were scheduled for August 4, 2026, after this data cutoff.
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