Akamai Technologies, Inc. research snapshot
AKAM AI stock analysis reads Akamai Technologies as a profitable cybersecurity, edge delivery, and cloud infrastructure company with a $1.8 billion AI infrastructure commitment and 40% Cloud Infrastructure Services growth, offset by declining delivery revenue, a 2026 non-GAAP EPS guidance trajectory below 2025 levels, elevated short interest, and price sitting below its short-term moving averages. At the August 2, 2026 data cutoff, AKAM last closed near $115.18 on July 31, 2026 with a verified market capitalization near $16.75 billion. This page uses scenario ranges and source checks, not a certain stock price prediction, and is for informational use only.
Current price
$115.18
Market cap
$16.75 billion
AI score
70 / 100
Rating
Profitable security and edge cloud, AI contract upside offset by EPS decline watch
Trend status
Price above the 200-day average but below the 20-day, 50-day and 100-day averages after a pullback
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Akamai sells cybersecurity, content delivery, edge, and cloud infrastructure services to customers that need performance, uptime, traffic protection, and attack mitigation at internet scale. | High |
| Moat | The moat comes from a global edge network, security telemetry, enterprise integrations, switching costs, customer trust, and scale, but hyperscalers, CDN peers, and security platforms keep the moat from being absolute. | Medium-high |
| Management | Founder CEO Tom Leighton is steering capital toward security and cloud infrastructure, including a $1.8 billion AI commitment, while using buybacks, a convertible raise, and the LayerX browser acquisition to position for AI-driven demand. | Medium-high |
| Financial trend | TTM revenue rose 6.15% to $4.267 billion. Q1 2026 revenue rose 6% to $1.074 billion, with Security up 11% and Cloud Infrastructure Services up 40%, while delivery and other cloud applications fell 7%. | High |
| Valuation | At $115.18, AKAM traded near 38.9x trailing GAAP EPS, 17.0x the roughly $6.78 midpoint of FY2026 non-GAAP EPS guidance, and 15.4x TTM free cash flow per share. | Medium |
| Technical trend | Technical signals were mixed to weak. AKAM closed below the 20-day, 50-day and 100-day moving averages, above the 200-day average near $105, and far below the $165.45 52-week high after a pullback. | Medium |
| Risk level | Main risks include delivery revenue decline, near-term EPS pressure from AI infrastructure spending, a $3.0 billion convertible raise, cloud execution, security competition, high short interest near 13.6% of shares, and multiple compression. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | High for descriptive facts and audited calculations, medium for forward scenarios and technical levels. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | Medium certainty. The page frames scenarios and monitoring rules, not a buy or sell instruction. | Medium |
AKAM AI stock forecast
The AKAM AI stock forecast uses scenario math around the $115.18 quote and a roughly $6.78 FY2026 non-GAAP EPS midpoint from current company guidance and consensus. The audited three-year framework produced a bearish area near $79, a base area near $141, and a bullish area near $199 before any buyback, dilution, or multiple-change effects beyond the stated assumptions.
$190 to $210
More likely if Security keeps growing near double digits, Cloud Infrastructure Services sustains well above 30% growth, the $1.8 billion AI commitment converts into durable revenue, delivery declines moderate, and investors pay a low 20s earnings multiple.
$135 to $150
More likely if Akamai compounds non-GAAP EPS at a low to mid single digit rate after the 2026 dip, security and cloud growth offset delivery pressure, free cash flow stays durable, and the market values AKAM near a high-teens earnings multiple.
$75 to $90
More likely if delivery revenue erosion accelerates, AI cloud revenue proves lumpy or lower margin than expected, security growth slows, 2026 EPS guidance is cut again, or investors reprice the stock closer to a low-teens multiple.
AKAM AI technical analysis
AKAM AI technical analysis is mixed as of the August 2, 2026 data cutoff. The stock last closed near $115.18 on July 31, 2026, below the 20-day, 50-day and 100-day moving averages, above the 200-day moving average near $105, and well below the $165.45 52-week high reported in market data.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $115.18 | StockAnalysis and Yahoo Finance reported the July 31, 2026 close at $115.18 after a 1.26% gain, with after-hours trading near $115.38. |
| Near support | $105 to $107 | StockAnalysis and Barchart placed the 200-day moving average near $105.12, making the $105 to $107 zone the first long-term support to monitor. |
| Deeper support | $96 to $100 | A break below the 200-day area opens the $96 to $100 zone, which includes the lower end of the 52-week trading range from earlier in the cycle. |
| Near resistance | $119 to $121 | Barchart listed the 20-day moving average near $119.28 and the 100-day moving average near $121.01, creating a short-term recovery band. |
| Intermediate resistance | $125 to $129 | Barchart and StockAnalysis both listed the 50-day moving average near $128.60, a level AKAM would need to reclaim for a healthier short-term trend. |
| Long-term resistance | $165.45 | The 52-week high at $165.45, reached in May 2026, is the ceiling for the longer recovery thesis. |
| Momentum | RSI near 44 | Barchart reported 14-day RSI near 44.36, neutral, with the negative directional index above the positive index, which points to shorter-term downside momentum. |
| Volume | About 3.5 million shares on a 20-day average | Barchart listed 20-day average volume near 3.47 million shares, so a reclaim attempt needs volume confirmation above that level. |
| Volatility | 52-week range $69.78 to $165.45 | Market data shows a wide 52-week range and 14-day historical volatility near 47%, which supports wider scenario and stop planning. |
| Invalidation | Close below $105 | A decisive close below the 200-day area near $105 would weaken the long-term setup and reduce confidence in a trend-following framework. |
AKAM AI trading strategy
The AKAM AI trading strategy is a rules-based research framework for monitoring a cybersecurity and cloud infrastructure stock after a 2026 rally and pullback. It is not personal advice and should be paired with fresh chart data, filings, position sizing, and a defined invalidation level.
Watch for AKAM to reclaim the $119 to $121 band on volume above its 20-day average, then confirm with Security growth, Cloud Infrastructure Services bookings, margin commentary, and Q2 2026 results on August 6, 2026.
A failed reclaim of the 50-day moving average near $128.60 or a close below the $105 200-day area should invalidate the near-term recovery setup.
If AKAM pulls back toward the $105 to $107 200-day area without a negative guidance reset, compare price action with short interest, AI infrastructure news, cloud gross margin, and delivery revenue commentary before assuming support is durable.
Do not average down without a maximum loss rule because security and cloud stocks can gap on guidance, contract timing, or competitive pricing news.
Track Security revenue growth, Cloud Infrastructure Services growth, delivery decline rate, non-GAAP operating margin, free cash flow, the $3.0 billion convertible raise, buyback activity, and the pace of AI infrastructure revenue conversion.
Reduce confidence if EPS growth depends mainly on buybacks or cost cuts while organic revenue growth and cash conversion weaken, or if guidance is cut again.
Investment research summary
Akamai helps businesses deliver, secure, and compute internet workloads closer to users. Customers pay because performance, uptime, bot defense, API security, DDoS protection, and distributed infrastructure are hard to rebuild internally.
The moat is built on network scale, edge presence, customer integrations, security data, operational reliability, and switching costs. It can narrow if hyperscalers, Cloudflare, Fastly, or security suites bundle similar capabilities at lower prices.
The thesis fails if delivery revenue declines faster than security and cloud can offset it, AI infrastructure revenue is concentrated or lower margin, the $3.0 billion convertible raise adds leverage faster than returns, or the stock multiple assumes more growth than Akamai can deliver.
Founder CEO Tom Leighton gives the company technical continuity and a long operating record. Management should be judged by AI infrastructure capital allocation, acquisition discipline, buyback timing, security product execution, and whether 2026 EPS guidance pressure is a bridge to durable growth.
Akamai sits at the intersection of cybersecurity, edge delivery, distributed cloud, and AI inference infrastructure. These are long-duration demand pools, but customer workloads can shift quickly as hyperscale cloud and security platforms compete for the same budgets.
At roughly 17.0x a current FY2026 non-GAAP EPS midpoint and 15.4x TTM free cash flow per share, AKAM needs security and cloud growth to offset delivery decline and justify the near-term EPS dip. Margin of safety improves if price returns to the 200-day area while guidance and cash conversion stay intact.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| AKAM price | $115.18 close on July 31, 2026, after-hours near $115.38 | StockAnalysis and Yahoo Finance quote snapshot | August 2, 2026 |
| Market capitalization | $16.75 billion, verified as $115.18 x 145.39 million shares | financial_rigor.py market cap verification | August 2, 2026 |
| TTM revenue and net income | TTM revenue $4.267 billion (+6.15%), TTM net income $435.18 million | StockAnalysis income statement via S&P Global Market Intelligence | August 2, 2026 |
| FY2025 revenue | $4.208 billion, up 5.44% from $3.991 billion in FY2024 | Akamai FY2025 results and StockAnalysis cross-check | August 2, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 results | Revenue $1.074 billion (+6% YoY), Security $590 million (+11%), Delivery and other cloud applications $389 million (-7%), Cloud Infrastructure Services $95 million (+40%), non-GAAP EPS $1.61 (-5%) | Akamai Q1 2026 earnings release | August 2, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 liquidity and debt | Cash, cash equivalents and marketable securities of $1.733 billion and convertible senior notes of $4.108 billion as of March 31, 2026 | Akamai Q1 2026 earnings release balance sheet | August 2, 2026 |
| FY2026 guidance | Revenue $4.445 billion to $4.55 billion, non-GAAP EPS $6.40 to $7.15, non-GAAP operating margin 26% | Akamai Q1 2026 earnings release guidance | August 2, 2026 |
| AI infrastructure commitment | $1.8 billion over seven years from a leading U.S. frontier model provider for Cloud Infrastructure Services | Akamai Q1 2026 earnings release | August 2, 2026 |
| Convertible raise | Upsized offering of $3.0 billion in 0% convertible senior notes announced May 2026, funding AI infrastructure | Akamai pricing announcement via GlobeNewswire and market news | August 2, 2026 |
| Share count | 145.39 million shares outstanding, cross-checked at 145.38 million from market cap divided by price | StockAnalysis share statistics and financial_rigor.py cross-validation | August 2, 2026 |
| Analyst consensus | Buy with an average price target of $159.74 across 25 analysts, ranging from $87 to $195 | StockAnalysis forecast and analyst ratings | July 29, 2026 |
| Technical snapshot | Price below 20-day MA $119.28, 50-day MA $128.60 and 100-day MA $121.01, above 200-day MA $105.12, RSI near 44 | Barchart and StockAnalysis technical snapshots | July 31, 2026 |
This AKAM AI stock analysis is an informational research tool only and is not investment advice, financial advice, or a recommendation to buy or sell AKAM stock. Forecast scenarios are based on available public data, technical snapshots, company guidance, and stated assumptions as of the data cutoff date and may be wrong. Always verify current filings, prices, risks, and personal suitability before making financial decisions.
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