First Majestic Silver Corp. research snapshot
AG AI stock analysis currently reads First Majestic Silver as a high-beta silver producer with four operating underground mines in Mexico, a 70% attributable interest in Los Gatos, and a possible Jerritt Canyon restart in Nevada. The business has recently benefited from higher silver prices, record cash generation, and improved production guidance, but its earnings power is highly sensitive to silver, gold, grades, costs, taxes, and execution. At the July 12, 2026 data cutoff, the latest NYSE close was $16.95 and the audited price-times-shares market capitalization was about $8.37 billion on 493.77 million shares. This is informational research, not investment advice.
Current price
$16.95
Market cap
About $8.37 billion by price times shares
AI score
58 / 100
Rating
Silver-focused growth producer with expanding output, strong recent cash generation, and high commodity-cycle risk
Trend status
Mixed momentum near the long-term moving averages after a sharp pullback from the 2026 high
Data cutoff (updated weekly)
July 12, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | First Majestic mines and sells silver, gold, zinc, lead, and copper from four underground Mexican operations, while First Mint adds a small direct bullion channel. Revenue is tied to ounces sold and realized metal prices. | High |
| Moat | The moat is based on permitted assets, operating knowledge, processing infrastructure, exploration data, reserve growth, and the ability to fund expansion. It is an asset and execution moat, not a consumer brand or network effect. | Medium |
| Management | Founder and CEO Keith Neumeyer has pursued production growth, the Gatos acquisition, reserve expansion, a larger treasury, and a Jerritt Canyon restart plan. The next test is capital discipline as expansion spending rises. | Medium-high |
| Financial trend | FY2025 revenue reached $1.257 billion and net earnings attributable to owners were $164.9 million. Q1 2026 revenue was $476.7 million, net earnings were $128.1 million, and free cash flow was $223.5 million. | High |
| Valuation | At $16.95, the local audit calculated 28.73x TTM EPS, 2.94x book value, and 16.62x TTM free cash flow. The multiple is reasonable only if strong metal prices and cash conversion persist. | Medium-high |
| Technical trend | The latest technical snapshot was mixed: RSI near 51.6 and MACD near 0.04 were neutral to positive, while the 50-day average near $16.98 and 200-day average near $17.73 kept the trend-reclaim test close at hand. | Medium |
| Risk level | Risk is high because silver and gold prices, grades, recoveries, labor, taxes, Mexico operations, dilution, project capital, and the Jerritt Canyon restart can all change value quickly. | High |
| AI confidence | The evidence base is strong for historical facts and arithmetic, but an AI model cannot reliably forecast silver prices or the timing and economics of mine projects. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | Certainty is lower than the data quality because First Majestic is a cyclical producer whose cash flow can change faster than its reported reserves or mine plan. | Low-medium |
AG AI stock forecast
The AG AI stock forecast uses a three-year scenario model around the $16.95 cutoff price. Using TTM EPS of $0.59, annual EPS growth of 30%, 10%, and -20%, and terminal P/E multiples of 25x, 18x, and 8x, the financial-rigor tool produced $32.4, $14.1, and $2.4. These are model outputs, not price promises.
$25 to $35
More likely if silver stays strong, H1 production momentum carries into the second half, Los Gatos and Santa Elena expansions finish on schedule, AISC stays near guidance, and the market rewards the Jerritt Canyon option without excessive dilution.
$12 to $18
More likely if First Majestic delivers its revised 2026 production range, silver remains profitable but normalizes, expansion capital rises as planned, and the valuation stays close to the current commodity-cycle band.
$2 to $8
More likely if silver and gold prices fall, costs rise above guidance, grades or recoveries weaken, Mexico operations are disrupted, the restart absorbs more capital, or the market applies a much lower multiple to cyclical earnings.
AG AI technical analysis
AG AI technical analysis uses the July 10, 2026 Investing.com snapshot and the latest close available at the cutoff. RSI was about 51.6, MACD was about 0.04, and the daily indicator mix was neutral to positive, while the moving-average summary remained a sell signal. This page is static and does not fetch live chart data, so confirm price, volume, and levels before acting.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | About $16.95 | NYSE close on July 10, 2026, also shown on First Majestic investor pages around the cutoff. |
| Near support | $16.80 to $16.90 | Classic pivot support area from the July 10 technical snapshot. It is a monitoring zone, not a guaranteed floor. |
| Deeper support | $15.50 to $15.60 | Recent July trading area from the price history feed. Recheck the level with a live chart because feeds can differ in timing and adjustment. |
| Major downside reference | About $7.74 | The reported 52-week low. A move toward that area would signal a much more serious change in the silver and equity risk regime. |
| Near resistance | About $17.73 | The reported 200-day simple moving average and an important trend-reclaim test. |
| 50-day moving average | About $16.98 | Investing.com July 10 snapshot. StockAnalysis showed a different 50-day reading near $19.10 on its July 9 statistics refresh, so the source difference must be acknowledged. |
| 200-day moving average | About $17.73 | Investing.com July 10 snapshot. A sustained close above it would improve the intermediate trend picture. |
| Momentum | RSI about 51.6; MACD about 0.04 | RSI was neutral and MACD was a buy signal in the cited daily snapshot. Neither indicator predicts the next move alone. |
| Volume | About 11.8 million average shares | StockAnalysis reported 20-day average volume near 11.8 million shares. Breakouts and breakdowns deserve more weight when volume expands. |
| Volatility | High; beta about 2.07 | The reported beta is well above the broad market and reflects silver-price leverage, mining news, and equity sentiment. |
| Invalidation | Sustained close below $15.50 | A confirmed break of the recent support zone should trigger a fresh review of silver, production, costs, liquidity, and the technical trend. |
AG AI trading strategy
The AG AI trading strategy is a rules-based research framework, not personalized advice. It should be paired with live chart data, defined position size, an invalidation rule, silver-price context, and current company filings.
Wait for AG to reclaim and hold the $17.73 200-day average, then check whether silver, volume, and mine updates support a move through the $18 to $19 area. A moving-average cross without operating confirmation is not enough.
A failed reclaim or a close back below the selected support area invalidates the setup. Do not widen the risk limit because the metal narrative sounds attractive.
If AG stabilizes near $16.80 to $16.90, compare the price move with silver and gold prices, Q2 production, AISC, cash, debt, capital spending, and the revised 2026 guidance before treating the pullback as mean reversion.
Do not average down only because RSI is near neutral or the price is below a moving average. A falling metal price and rising cost base can make a low price look cheap for a long time.
Track silver and gold prices, ounces produced and sold, realized prices, cash costs, AISC, free cash flow, treasury, debt, share count, Los Gatos throughput, Santa Elena permits, Jerritt Canyon spending, and San Martin sale proceeds.
Reduce confidence if production growth depends on higher grades that do not repeat, if AISC exceeds the $27.69 to $28.77 guidance range, or if expansion spending weakens liquidity and per-share value.
Investment research summary
First Majestic converts mineral reserves, mine infrastructure, labor, energy, and processing capacity into silver and other metal sales. Customers pay market-linked metal prices, so the economic engine is ounces sold multiplied by realized prices minus operating, sustaining, tax, and expansion costs. The company operates Santa Elena, Los Gatos, San Dimas, and La Encantada in Mexico, with First Mint as a smaller direct bullion channel.
The defensible advantage is an operating portfolio built over time, including permits, mine plans, processing plants, local teams, exploration data, and the ability to fund projects. The 2025 reserve and resource update added to the long-term option set, while Los Gatos increased scale. The moat can narrow through depletion, cost inflation, permitting friction, labor disruption, or poor capital allocation.
The thesis fails if silver and gold prices retreat, recoveries or grades disappoint, costs rise faster than realized prices, or operating disruptions persist. Other failure paths include Mexico tax or regulatory changes, community and labor conflict, dilution, a Jerritt Canyon restart that consumes capital without adequate returns, and the market assigning a low multiple to cyclical earnings.
Keith Neumeyer founded First Majestic in 2002 and remains CEO and director. Management has expanded the operating base through the Gatos acquisition, grown the treasury, increased 2026 production guidance, secured Santa Elena portal permits, and committed $75 million to the Jerritt Canyon restart program. The central capital-allocation test is balancing growth, dividends, liquidity, and per-share value.
Silver sits between monetary metal demand and industrial demand, including electronics and solar applications. A tight market or higher investment demand can lift realized prices, but the company cannot control the cycle. First Majestic is positioned as a leveraged producer, not a low-volatility precious-metals holding, and the Mexico concentration matters when assessing the twenty-year outlook.
At $16.95, the local audit produced 28.73x TTM EPS, 2.94x book value, 16.62x TTM free cash flow, and a 6.02% FCF yield. The three-year model spans $2.4 to $32.4 because a small change in metal prices, EPS growth, or terminal multiple has a large effect on a high-beta miner. The margin of safety therefore depends on normalizing earnings across a full silver cycle rather than capitalizing one strong quarter.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| Latest NYSE close | $16.95 on July 10, 2026 | First Majestic investor page and StockAnalysis overview | July 12, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding | 493.77 million shares | StockAnalysis statistics | July 9, 2026 |
| Market capitalization audit | $8.37 billion calculated from $16.95 x 493.77 million shares versus $8.49 billion reported; 1.42% variance | Pineify financial_rigor.py and StockAnalysis overview | July 12, 2026 |
| FY2025 revenue | $1.257 billion, cross-validated within 0.01% by Macrotrends and StockAnalysis | Macrotrends and StockAnalysis financials | July 12, 2026 |
| FY2025 net earnings | $210.975 million total net earnings; $164.923 million attributable to owners, cross-validated with Macrotrends at $165 million | SEC 2025 annual report and Macrotrends | July 12, 2026 |
| FY2025 cash and free cash flow | $793.435 million cash and equivalents; StockAnalysis standardized FCF was $315.35 million, while the company reported non-GAAP FCF of $470.6 million under its own definition | SEC annual report, StockAnalysis cash flow, and company annual results | July 12, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 financial results | $476.7 million revenue, $128.1 million net earnings, $223.5 million free cash flow, and $1.1286 billion treasury | First Majestic Q1 2026 financial results | May 12, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 production | 3.80 million silver ounces, 34,660 gold ounces, 16.5 million pounds of zinc, and 9.0 million pounds of lead | First Majestic Q2 2026 production release | July 8, 2026 |
| Revised 2026 production guidance | 14.6 to 15.5 million attributable silver ounces and 128,000 to 135,000 gold ounces | First Majestic Q2 2026 production release | July 8, 2026 |
| 2026 cost and capital guidance | Consolidated AISC $27.69 to $28.77 per AgEq ounce and capital investments of $318 million to $344 million | First Majestic Q2 2026 production release | July 8, 2026 |
| Mineral reserve and resource update | 2025 silver-equivalent reserves increased 16% year over year, with major resource growth at Santa Elena and Jerritt Canyon | First Majestic 2025 mineral reserve and resource release | July 12, 2026 |
| Technical snapshot | RSI 51.617, MACD 0.04, 50-day SMA $16.98, 200-day SMA $17.73, and 20-day average volume about 11.8 million shares | Investing.com technical page and StockAnalysis statistics | July 10, 2026 |
| Financial-rigor verification | Market cap, revenue, attributable net earnings, cash, valuation ratios, and three-scenario values were calculated locally with exact decimal arithmetic | Pineify tools/financial_rigor.py local run | July 12, 2026 |
This AG AI stock analysis page is an informational tool only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a guarantee of returns. Forecast ranges are scenarios based on available public data as of July 12, 2026 and can be wrong if silver or gold prices, production, costs, taxes, project outcomes, dilution, valuation multiples, or market conditions change.
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