First Majestic Silver Corp. research snapshot
AG AI stock analysis currently reads First Majestic Silver as a high-beta silver and gold producer with four operating underground mines in Mexico, a 70% attributable interest in Los Gatos, and a Jerritt Canyon restart in Nevada targeting H2 2027 production. The July 30, 2026 Q2 results showed revenue up 57% year over year to $415.5 million, net earnings of $109.4 million, free cash flow of $194.6 million, and a record $1,252.7 million treasury, and the company raised its 2026 production guidance for a second consecutive year. At the August 3, 2026 data cutoff, the latest NYSE close was $15.03 on July 31, 2026 and the market capitalization was about $7.39 billion. The share price sits well below its 50-day and 200-day averages after falling from a 52-week high near $32.04, and silver prices have cooled in 2026. This is informational research, not investment advice.
Current price
$15.03
Market cap
About $7.39 billion reported by StockAnalysis
AI score
54 / 100
Rating
Silver-focused growth producer with record treasury, raised 2026 guidance, and meaningful exposure to metal prices, costs, dilution, and Mexico operations
Trend status
Downtrend below the 50-day and 200-day moving averages after a sharp pullback from the 52-week high
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | First Majestic mines and sells silver, gold, zinc, lead, and copper from four underground Mexican operations, while First Mint adds a small direct bullion channel. Revenue is tied to ounces sold and realized metal prices, with Q2 2026 revenue up 57% year over year to $415.5 million. | High |
| Moat | The moat is based on permitted assets, operating knowledge, processing infrastructure, exploration data, reserve growth, and the ability to fund expansion. It is an asset and execution moat, not a consumer brand or network effect. | Medium |
| Management | Founder and CEO Keith Neumeyer has pursued production growth, the Gatos acquisition, the San Martin and Del Toro sales, reserve expansion, a record treasury, and a Jerritt Canyon restart plan. A new CFO, Neil Beaumont, took over on July 2, 2026, and the next test is capital discipline as expansion spending and a filed offering weigh on per-share value. | Medium |
| Financial trend | FY2025 revenue reached $1.257 billion and net earnings attributable to owners were $164.9 million. Q2 2026 revenue was $415.5 million, net earnings were $109.4 million, and free cash flow was $194.6 million, taking treasury to a record $1,252.7 million. | High |
| Valuation | At $15.03, the local audit calculated 21.78x TTM EPS, 2.50x book value, and 12.02x TTM free cash flow. The multiple is reasonable only if strong metal prices and cash conversion persist, and it still trades above the range that GF Value considers fair. | Medium-high |
| Technical trend | The latest technical snapshot is bearish: RSI near 38.7, a close of $15.03 below the 50-day average near $17.53 and the 200-day average near $18.84, and a pullback from a 52-week high near $32.04. | Medium |
| Risk level | Risk is high because silver and gold prices, grades, recoveries, labor, taxes, Mexico operations, dilution from a filed securities offering, project capital, and the Jerritt Canyon restart can all change value quickly. | High |
| AI confidence | The evidence base is strong for historical facts, the Q2 2026 report, and arithmetic, but an AI model cannot reliably forecast silver prices or the timing and economics of mine projects. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | Certainty is lower than the data quality because First Majestic is a cyclical producer whose cash flow can change faster than its reported reserves or mine plan. | Low-medium |
AG AI stock forecast
The AG AI stock forecast uses a three-year scenario model around the $15.03 cutoff price. Using TTM EPS of $0.69, annual EPS growth of 30%, 10%, and -20%, and terminal P/E multiples of 25x, 18x, and 8x, the financial-rigor tool produced $37.9, $16.5, and $2.8. These are model outputs, not price promises.
$30 to $40
More likely if silver and gold prices stabilize or rise, H2 production and the Santa Elena and Los Gatos expansions finish on schedule, AISC stays near the $27.69 to $28.77 guidance, the Jerritt Canyon restart advances without excessive dilution, and the market rewards the growth pipeline.
$13 to $19
More likely if First Majestic delivers its revised 2026 production range of 14.6 to 15.5 million silver ounces and 128,000 to 135,000 gold ounces, metal prices normalize, expansion capital rises as planned, and the valuation stays near the current commodity-cycle band.
$2 to $6
More likely if silver and gold prices keep falling, costs rise above guidance, grades or recoveries weaken, Mexico operations are disrupted, the newly filed offering dilutes more than expected, or the market applies a much lower multiple to cyclical earnings.
AG AI technical analysis
AG AI technical analysis uses the July 31, 2026 close and the StockAnalysis statistics snapshot updated August 2, 2026. RSI was about 38.7, the close of $15.03 was below the 50-day average near $17.53 and the 200-day average near $18.84, and volume expanded on the earnings day. This page is static and does not fetch live chart data, so confirm price, volume, and levels before acting.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | About $15.03 | NYSE close on July 31, 2026, after a 4.21% decline. After-hours trading showed about $14.99. |
| Near support | $14.83 to $15.03 | The July 31 low of $14.83 and closing price form the first monitoring zone. It is not a guaranteed floor. |
| Deeper support | About $14.11 | The July 30 intraday low on earnings day. Recheck the level with a live chart because intraday prints can differ from closing data. |
| Major downside reference | About $7.74 | The reported 52-week low. A move toward that area would signal a much more serious change in the silver and equity risk regime. |
| Near resistance | $15.69 to $15.70 | The July 30 close and high. A sustained close above this area would signal the first step out of the recent downtrend. |
| 50-day moving average | About $17.53 | StockAnalysis statistics snapshot. The price must reclaim this average for the intermediate trend to improve. |
| 200-day moving average | About $18.84 | StockAnalysis statistics snapshot. A sustained close above it would improve the longer-term trend picture. |
| Momentum | RSI about 38.7 | RSI near 38.7 is in the weak-to-oversold zone. It does not predict the next move alone. |
| Volume | About 10.3 million average shares | StockAnalysis reported 20-day average volume near 10.3 million shares, with the July 30 earnings session spiking to about 20.5 million. Breakouts and breakdowns deserve more weight when volume expands. |
| Volatility | High; beta about 2.11 | The reported beta is well above the broad market and reflects silver-price leverage, mining news, and equity sentiment. |
| Invalidation | Sustained close below $14.11 | A confirmed break of the recent support zone should trigger a fresh review of silver, production, costs, liquidity, dilution, and the technical trend. |
AG AI trading strategy
The AG AI trading strategy is a rules-based research framework, not personalized advice. It should be paired with live chart data, defined position size, an invalidation rule, silver-price context, and current company filings.
Wait for AG to reclaim and hold the $15.69 to $15.70 resistance area, then check whether silver, volume, and mine updates support a move toward the $17.53 50-day average and beyond. A moving-average reclaim without operating confirmation is not enough.
A failed reclaim or a close back below $14.83 invalidates the setup. Do not widen the risk limit because the silver narrative sounds attractive.
If AG stabilizes near $14.11 to $15.03, compare the price move with silver and gold prices, H2 production, AISC, cash, debt, capital spending, dilution, and the revised 2026 guidance before treating the pullback as mean reversion.
Do not average down only because RSI is weak or the price is below a moving average. A falling metal price and rising cost base can make a low price look cheap for a long time.
Track silver and gold prices, ounces produced and sold, realized prices, cash costs, AISC, free cash flow, treasury, debt, share count, the filed offering, Los Gatos throughput, Santa Elena permits, Jerritt Canyon spending, and San Martin and Del Toro sale proceeds.
Reduce confidence if production growth depends on higher grades that do not repeat, if AISC exceeds the $27.69 to $28.77 guidance range, if the securities offering dilutes meaningfully, or if expansion spending weakens liquidity and per-share value.
Investment research summary
First Majestic converts mineral reserves, mine infrastructure, labor, energy, and processing capacity into silver and other metal sales. Customers pay market-linked metal prices, so the economic engine is ounces sold multiplied by realized prices minus operating, sustaining, tax, and expansion costs. The company operates Santa Elena, Los Gatos, San Dimas, and La Encantada in Mexico, with First Mint as a smaller direct bullion channel.
The defensible advantage is an operating portfolio built over time, including permits, mine plans, processing plants, local teams, exploration data, and the ability to fund projects. The 2025 reserve and resource update added to the long-term option set, while Los Gatos increased scale. The moat can narrow through depletion, cost inflation, permitting friction, labor disruption, or poor capital allocation.
The thesis fails if silver and gold prices keep retreating, recoveries or grades disappoint, costs rise faster than realized prices, or operating disruptions persist. Other failure paths include Mexico tax or regulatory changes, community and labor conflict, dilution from the newly filed securities offering, a Jerritt Canyon restart that consumes capital without adequate returns, and the market assigning a low multiple to cyclical earnings.
Keith Neumeyer founded First Majestic in 2002 and remains CEO and director. Management has expanded the operating base through the Gatos acquisition, sold San Martin and Del Toro, grown treasury to a record $1,252.7 million, raised 2026 production guidance for the second consecutive year, and committed $75 million to the Jerritt Canyon restart program. Neil Beaumont replaced David Soares as CFO on July 2, 2026. The central capital-allocation test is balancing growth, dividends, buybacks, liquidity, and per-share value, especially as a securities offering has been filed.
Silver sits between monetary metal demand and industrial demand, including electronics and solar applications. Silver prices have cooled in 2026 after a strong 2025, and a tight market or renewed investment demand can lift realized prices, but the company cannot control the cycle. First Majestic is positioned as a leveraged producer, not a low-volatility precious-metals holding, and the Mexico concentration matters when assessing the twenty-year outlook.
At $15.03, the local audit produced 21.78x TTM EPS, 2.50x book value, 12.02x TTM free cash flow, and an 8.32% FCF yield. The three-year model spans $2.8 to $37.9 because a small change in metal prices, EPS growth, or terminal multiple has a large effect on a high-beta miner. The margin of safety therefore depends on normalizing earnings across a full silver cycle rather than capitalizing one strong quarter.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| Latest NYSE close | $15.03 on July 31, 2026 | StockAnalysis overview and price history | August 2, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding | 492.91 million shares | StockAnalysis statistics | August 2, 2026 |
| Market capitalization audit | $7.41 billion calculated from $15.03 x 492.91 million shares versus $7.39 billion reported; 0.25% variance | Pineify financial_rigor.py and StockAnalysis overview | August 3, 2026 |
| TTM revenue | $1.641 billion for the twelve months ending June 30, 2026, cross-validated between StockAnalysis and Macrotrends | StockAnalysis income statement and Macrotrends revenue | August 3, 2026 |
| TTM net earnings | $347.64 million attributable to common shareholders on a TTM basis, matching the income statement source | StockAnalysis statistics and income statement | August 3, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 financial results | $415.5 million revenue, $109.4 million net earnings attributable to owners, $194.6 million free cash flow, and a record $1,252.7 million treasury | First Majestic Q2 2026 financial results press release | July 30, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 production | 3.80 million silver ounces, 34,660 gold ounces, 16.5 million pounds of zinc, 9.0 million pounds of lead, and 252,938 pounds of copper | First Majestic Q2 2026 production release | July 8, 2026 |
| Revised 2026 production guidance | 14.6 to 15.5 million attributable silver ounces and 128,000 to 135,000 gold ounces, raised for the second consecutive year | First Majestic Q2 2026 production release | July 8, 2026 |
| 2026 cost and capital guidance | Consolidated AISC $27.69 to $28.77 per AgEq ounce and capital investments of $318 million to $344 million, including $75 million for Jerritt Canyon | First Majestic Q2 2026 production release | July 8, 2026 |
| Treasury and balance sheet | $1,252.7 million in treasury including $159.4 million restricted, net cash about $917.3 million, and book value per share about $6.02 | First Majestic Q2 2026 results and StockAnalysis statistics | August 2, 2026 |
| San Martin and Del Toro sales | Definitive agreement to sell San Martin for up to $90 million on July 7, 2026; Del Toro sale to Sierra Madre completed in June 2026 with $30 million upfront | First Majestic press releases | July 7, 2026 |
| Technical snapshot | RSI 38.67, 50-day SMA $17.53, 200-day SMA $18.84, and 20-day average volume about 10.3 million shares | StockAnalysis statistics | August 2, 2026 |
| Analyst view | Consensus Buy with a $24.75 average price target from 6 analysts; H.C. Wainwright raised its target to $27 and Scotiabank lowered to $22.50 | StockAnalysis forecast and news items | August 1, 2026 |
| Financial-rigor verification | Market cap, revenue, Q2 net earnings, valuation ratios, and three-scenario values were calculated locally with exact decimal arithmetic | Pineify tools/financial_rigor.py local run | August 3, 2026 |
This AG AI stock analysis page is an informational tool only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a guarantee of returns. Forecast ranges are scenarios based on available public data as of August 3, 2026 and can be wrong if silver or gold prices, production, costs, taxes, project outcomes, dilution, valuation multiples, or market conditions change.
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