Pan American Silver Corp. research snapshot
PAAS AI stock analysis currently reads Pan American Silver as a diversified silver and gold miner with record 2025 earnings, record Q1 2026 cash and short-term investments, a net-cash position, and growth projects at La Colorada and Jacobina. The caution is that miner earnings are highly sensitive to silver and gold prices, operating costs, mine execution, political and permitting conditions, and a large planned La Colorada investment. At the July 11, 2026 data cutoff, the latest available close was $44.12 on July 9 and verified market capitalization was about $18.59 billion. The PAAS AI stock forecast uses scenarios, not a certain price prediction, and this page is informational research, not investment advice.
Current price
$44.12 close on July 9, 2026
Market cap
$18.59 billion verified market cap
AI score
68 / 100
Rating
Cash-rich silver and gold miner with strong recent margins, but high metal-price, project, and jurisdiction risk
Trend status
Fundamentals are strong while price is below the 50-day and 200-day moving averages
Data cutoff (updated weekly)
July 11, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Pan American sells silver, gold, zinc, lead, and copper from mines in the Americas, earning the spread between realized metal prices and mining, processing, and sustaining costs. | High |
| Moat | The moat is asset and execution based: producing mines, mineral reserves, technical teams, processing infrastructure, local relationships, and a balance sheet that can fund projects through cycles. | Medium-high |
| Management | CEO Michael Steinmann is balancing an enhanced shareholder-return framework with funding for La Colorada Skarn, mine optimization, exploration, and disciplined operating delivery. | Medium-high |
| Financial trend | FY2025 revenue was $3.619 billion and net earnings were $980 million. Q1 2026 added $1.154 billion of revenue, $456 million of net earnings, and $505 million of operating cash flow. | High |
| Valuation | At $44.12, financial-rigor calculations using $3.18 TTM EPS, $18.56 book value per share, and $3.31 free cash flow per share give 13.87x P/E, 2.38x P/B, and 13.33x P/FCF. | Medium-high |
| Technical trend | The July technical snapshot put PAAS below the 50-day average near $51.56 and the 200-day average near $50.20, with RSI near 35.11, so short-term momentum was weak. | Medium |
| Risk level | Risk is high because silver and gold prices, mine costs, reserve grades, project capital, permitting, community consultation, country exposure, and foreign exchange can all change value rapidly. | High |
| AI confidence | Historical financial facts and valuation arithmetic have high data confidence. Forward metal prices, project outcomes, and share-price paths have lower confidence. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | Medium certainty because a strong balance sheet and recent operating results do not remove the cyclicality and execution risk of a multi-jurisdiction miner. | Medium |
PAAS AI stock forecast
The PAAS AI stock forecast uses a three-year scenario framework around the $44.12 cutoff price. The financial-rigor model produced values near $77.40 in the bullish case, $47.90 in the base case, and $13.00 in the bearish case using explicit EPS-growth and terminal-P/E assumptions. These are sensitivity cases, not price targets or promises.
$70 to $80
More likely if silver and gold prices remain supportive, 2026 production and costs meet guidance, free cash flow remains strong, La Colorada advances on budget, shareholder returns continue, and PAAS reclaims key moving averages on strong volume.
$43 to $52
More likely if metal prices and operating margins normalize near current levels, the net-cash balance is maintained after growth spending, and the market applies a mid-cycle multiple to earnings.
$13 to $20
More likely if silver or gold prices fall sharply, costs or taxes rise, mine output misses plan, La Colorada spending expands without adequate returns, Escobal remains suspended, or technical weakness persists.
PAAS AI technical analysis
PAAS AI technical analysis uses public market data available at the July 11, 2026 cutoff. The latest available close was $44.12 on July 9, below StockAnalysis readings near $51.56 for the 50-day moving average and $50.20 for the 200-day moving average. RSI was 35.11 and 20-day average volume was about 5.07 million shares. This static page does not fetch request-time chart data, so confirm every level in a live chart before acting.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $44.12 | Latest available regular-session close used for this page, dated July 9, 2026. |
| Near support | $41.50 to $42.00 | This range brackets the July 8 intraday low near $41.63 and is a monitoring zone, not a guaranteed floor. |
| Deeper support | $40.00 | A round-number risk-planning level that should be validated with live price history and metal-price conditions. |
| Near resistance | About $50.20 | The reported 200-day moving average is the first important long-term trend-reclaim level. |
| 50-day moving average | $51.56 | StockAnalysis reported this value around the cutoff. A sustained reclaim would improve the short-term trend. |
| 200-day moving average | $50.20 | Price below this long-term average keeps the technical read cautious. |
| Momentum | RSI 35.11 | The reported RSI was weak but is not, by itself, a buy or sell signal. |
| Volume | About 5.07 million shares over 20 days | Breakouts and breakdowns deserve more weight when volume is above the recent average. |
| Volatility | High metal-price and event sensitivity | Silver and gold prices, quarterly production, guidance, project spending, community consultation, and jurisdiction news can cause gaps. |
| Invalidation | Sustained close below $40 | A confirmed break below the deeper monitoring zone would require a fresh review of price action, metals, and operating assumptions. |
PAAS AI trading strategy
The PAAS AI trading strategy is a rules-based research framework, not personalized advice. Pair it with live price and volume data, defined position size, invalidation rules, silver and gold prices, mine results, costs, capital spending, and current filings.
Wait for PAAS to regain and hold the 200-day average near $50.20 and the 50-day average near $51.56, then assess whether volume, silver and gold prices, and operating data support the move.
A failed reclaim or a close below the selected support level should invalidate the setup before losses become open-ended.
If PAAS stabilizes near $41.50 to $42.00 while metals remain firm, compare the price move with production guidance, AISC, inventory, free cash flow, net cash, and the expected La Colorada capital profile.
Do not average down only because RSI is weak. Reassess if metals fall, costs rise, production slips, project spending expands, or country and permitting risk worsens.
Track silver and gold prices, attributable production, AISC, revenue, operating cash flow, free cash flow, cash, debt, share count, buybacks, dividends, La Colorada milestones, Escobal consultation, and quarterly guidance.
Reduce confidence when valuation depends on high metal prices without matching production, cost, balance-sheet, and capital-allocation execution.
Investment research summary
Pan American turns mineral reserves, producing mines, processing plants, and operating know-how into sales of silver, gold, zinc, lead, and copper. Its economic result depends on ounces sold, realized prices, recovery rates, and mine costs.
The defensible advantage is not consumer branding. It is the difficulty of replicating a permitted mine portfolio, mineral inventory, technical teams, plants, infrastructure, local operating relationships, and funding capacity across multiple jurisdictions.
The thesis can fail if silver and gold prices retreat, costs rise faster than realized prices, grades or recoveries disappoint, reserves are not replaced, major projects overrun, Escobal remains suspended, or governments and communities demand more of the economics.
Management is being tested on capital allocation: preserving the net-cash position, funding La Colorada and optimization work at sensible returns, maintaining safe production, and returning surplus cash without assuming peak metal prices will last.
Silver benefits from monetary demand and industrial applications, while gold remains a monetary and jewelry metal. New large mines are difficult to permit and build, but miners still face cyclicality, inflation, environmental duties, and jurisdiction risk.
At $44.12, PAAS is valued on strong trailing metal-price conditions and cash flow. A margin of safety requires conservative assumptions about normalized silver and gold prices, mine costs, tax and permitting conditions, project capital, dilution, and the durability of shareholder returns.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| Current price and market capitalization | $44.12 close on July 9, 2026 multiplied by 421.35 million shares equals $18.59 billion, with 0.00% market-cap verification variance. | StockAnalysis PAAS financials and statistics; Pineify financial_rigor.py | July 11, 2026 |
| Share count | 421.35 million common shares outstanding at May 5, 2026 | Pan American Silver Q1 2026 report | July 11, 2026 |
| FY2025 revenue | $3.619 billion, cross-validated between Pan American Silver audited results and Macrotrends | Pan American Silver FY2025 report | July 11, 2026 |
| FY2025 net earnings | $980 million from the audited company report and $978 million from Macrotrends, a 0.10% presentation difference | Pan American Silver FY2025 report and Macrotrends financial statements | July 11, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 operating results | $1.154 billion revenue, $456 million net earnings, $505 million operating cash flow, and $488 million attributable free cash flow | Pan American Silver Q1 2026 report | July 11, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 cash and debt | $1.614 billion cash and short-term investments, $845 million total debt, and about $769 million net cash, cross-validated with StockAnalysis | Pan American Silver Q1 2026 report and StockAnalysis balance sheet | July 11, 2026 |
| 2026 operating context | Management said 2026 guidance remained on track in Q1, while La Colorada Skarn had an initial $265 million approved spend within an estimated $1.9 billion total investment. | Pan American Silver Q1 2026 report | July 11, 2026 |
| Technical snapshot | 50-day moving average $51.56, 200-day moving average $50.20, RSI 35.11, and 20-day average volume 5.07 million shares | StockAnalysis statistics | July 11, 2026 |
| Financial-rigor verification | Market-cap math passed at 0.00% variance; FY2025 revenue, FY2025 net income, and Q1 2026 cash cross-validation passed; valuation and three-scenario calculations were run locally. | Pineify tools/financial_rigor.py local run | July 11, 2026 |
This PAAS AI stock analysis page is an informational tool only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a guarantee of returns. Forecast ranges are scenarios based on available public data as of July 11, 2026 and can be wrong if metal prices, costs, production, taxes, permitting, project outcomes, valuation multiples, or market conditions change.
Design trading strategies visually with 10+ indicators. Set entry/exit conditions and risk management, then generate Pine Script code with no coding required.
Filter and discover stocks based on market cap, dividend yield, P/E ratio, sector, and more. Screen thousands of stocks with real-time data.
Smart AI-driven stock selection with fundamental screening, analyst estimates, and key metrics. Filter by P/E, market cap, dividends, and more.
