Can bull market peak indicators identify the exact top?

A reading or cross describes the model’s present condition. The final high is only known later. No predictive success rate or exact-top guarantee is established here.

What is the Pi Cycle Top Indicator?

It compares the 111-day moving average with twice the 350-day average value. Philip Swift’s model is dated April 2019; matches to earlier peaks are retrospective.

Is a Mayer Multiple above 2.4 a sell instruction?

No universal trade follows from that reference level. The multiple is price divided by its 200-day average. A strategy still needs its own timing, position, execution and evaluation rules.

Does NUPL measure the percentage of profitable holders?

No. It divides the difference between market and realized capitalization by market capitalization. Aggregate unrealized value is different from the number of people or addresses with a profit.

Does Pineify supply the CoinGlass peak-indicator dashboard?

This page provides model definitions and a verification procedure, not a CoinGlass data feed. Chart analysis and Pine drafting do not grant access to an external provider’s underlying data.

Is staged selling always the most reliable exit?

No. It changes exposure and the distribution of sale prices, but can miss later gains and incur costs. Specify whether each fraction refers to the original or remaining position and compare the full plan with a baseline.

Market cycle guide

Bull Market Peak Indicators: Definitions, Evidence and Exit Rules

Bull market peak indicators compare Bitcoin price, on-chain value or market activity with historical reference levels. Pi Cycle Top and Mayer Multiple use prices; MVRV Z-Score, NUPL and RHODL require additional blockchain data. These models describe conditions. A threshold crossing does not establish that the final cycle high has occurred, and agreement among related models is not a calibrated probability.

See the decision guide

What the main Bitcoin cycle models measure

The following definitions explain the inputs, not a ranking of forecasting accuracy. Use one named price feed and daily cutoff for comparisons. An intraday 200-bar average is not a 200-day average, and a chart with too little history cannot supply a complete long lookback.

Model	Calculation or construction	What the reading does not establish
Pi Cycle Top	111-day moving average crosses above twice the value of the 350-day moving average	Twice the average value is not a 700-day average; a cross is not proof of a final high.
Mayer Multiple	Bitcoin price divided by its 200-day moving average	A multiple measures distance from a baseline, not the probability of a decline.
2-Year MA Multiplier	Compare price with the two-year moving average and five times that average	A historical band is not a guaranteed future ceiling. Verify the provider’s day-count convention.
MVRV Z-Score	(market cap − realized cap) / standard deviation of market cap	The denominator’s history and provider implementation matter; this is not a normal-distribution confidence level.
NUPL	(market cap − realized cap) / market cap	A value of 0.75 is not evidence that 75% of holders, or nearly all holders, have a profit.
RHODL Ratio	Realized-value HODL band of one week divided by the one-to-two-year band, adjusted by market age in days	Coin age is not the age or identity of an investor; transfers need not represent a sale.

Historical fit is different from a forecast made at the time

Look Into Bitcoin dates Philip Swift’s Pi Cycle Top to April 2019. Its presentation of earlier cycle highs is therefore retrospective evidence, not a record of forecasts issued before those highs. The provider describes historical timing accuracy, but this page has not independently reproduced a complete signal history or measured future performance.

Specify a peak definition before testing: for example, the highest daily close within a stated future window. That label is only known later and must never be used to decide the earlier trade.
Record every eligible crossing, including repeated signals, early warnings, missed highs and periods without a signal. Selected successful charts are not a denominator.
Keep the formula, thresholds and data version fixed for a later evaluation period. Retuning thresholds after each cycle changes the model being evaluated.
ETF flows, exchange activity and derivatives can change market conditions, but they do not prove that future peak multiples must decline. Market capitalization is price times supply, not the cash required to move the price.

How to audit a 30-indicator dashboard

CoinGlass publishes a Bull Market Peak Indicators checklist with current values, reference levels, hit status and progress fields. A dashboard’s live count, refresh cadence and inputs should be read from its loaded interface; a failed or empty response must not be treated as zero risk. This page does not reproduce its feed or certify that a fixed 30-row set is available.

For each row, save the provider, formula, timestamp, threshold and whether a higher or lower value triggers the rule. “Progress” needs a defined calculation and is not automatically a probability.
Several indicators may reuse Bitcoin price or realized capitalization. Treat their dependence explicitly; thirty labels do not supply thirty independent observations.
Distinguish unavailable from not triggered. As invented arithmetic, 8 hits among 20 available rows is 40% of observed rows; it says nothing about 10 missing rows or a 40% chance of a market top.
Check the actual data access terms. Viewing a chart does not establish permission to export its history, redistribute it or call a private API from Pine Script.

Use arithmetic to check an exit plan, not to promise a top

Suppose invented market capitalization is $1 trillion and realized capitalization is $400 billion. NUPL is (1,000 − 400) / 1,000 = 0.60. This is an aggregate value ratio under the model. It is not a count of profitable people, an executable liquidation value or a reason by itself to sell.

Decision	Reproducible specification	Tradeoff to record
Staged reductions	Name the trigger, observation time, fraction and whether the fraction uses original or remaining units	Four sales of 25% of remaining units leave 0.75^4 = 31.640625%; four sales of 25% of the original units exhaust the position.
Trailing exit	State the reference price, lookback, distance, ratchet and order type	A stop can fill worse after a gap; a stop-limit may remain unfilled. A wider distance can leave more price risk.
Evaluation	Compare the complete plan with a stated baseline after costs and applicable taxes	Early reductions can lower exposure while missing further gains. Neither outcome proves an optimal rule.
Destination of proceeds	Name the actual asset and custody arrangement	Cash, Treasury instruments and stablecoins have different liquidity, issuer and redemption risks; they are not interchangeable guarantees.

What chart analysis and Pine Script can verify

Pineify can help draft price-based cycle calculations or discuss a supplied chart image. A screenshot cannot establish the underlying dataset, unseen history or the accuracy of a provider’s on-chain calculations. A generated script needs syntax and chart checks before use; this page includes no tested strategy or live cycle forecast.

For a daily price model, specify symbol, exchange, timezone, source and completed-day timing. Check a few values manually against the same input series.
MVRV, NUPL and RHODL cannot be reconstructed from ordinary OHLC candles alone. TradingView must expose the required series through supported data requests; Pine cannot simply fetch an arbitrary web API.
A price-only substitute must have its own label. Calling it an on-chain proxy does not establish that it measures realized capitalization or coin-age bands.
Creating an indicator condition does not create a running TradingView alert. Configure the alert separately and verify the saved script settings and bar timing.

Where Pineify fits

AI Chart Analysis

Discuss a supplied chart image, then check its visible readings and interpretation against the original data.

Also useful: Pine Script AI Coding Agent. Draft a specified price-based cycle indicator for syntax and chart review; external on-chain data availability remains a separate requirement.

Review a cycle chart

Related resources

Analyze cycle charts with AI Chart Analysis Code custom cycle scripts with Pine Script AI Track long-term Bitcoin valuation bands Calculate crypto volatility and ATR Compare a recurring crypto purchase plan Learn Break of Structure (BOS) rules

Frequently asked questions

Educational model definitions and hypothetical arithmetic. No historical strategy performance or current market-top forecast is established here. Cryptocurrency prices and execution can produce substantial losses.

Sources and verification

Last verified: 2026-10-21