The nine tests and their denominators
Let t be the latest complete fiscal year, t-1 the preceding year, and A the total assets at each year end. Beginning assets for t are A(t-1); beginning assets for t-1 are A(t-2). Average assets for t are [A(t) + A(t-1)] / 2. Use the same reporting scope, currency and units across both years. NI means net income before extraordinary items; OCF means cash flow from operations. Every test below is worth one point when true and zero when false, provided its inputs are known.
- Definition choice: the Chicago Booth reprint describes beginning assets for turnover in section 2.3.3, while its Table 1 note says average assets. This worksheet follows section 2.3.3. Record that choice when reconciling a provider score.
- Boundary choice: the paper describes falling leverage as favorable but does not explicitly assign equality in that sentence. This worksheet requires a strict decline. Providers that accept unchanged leverage can differ by one point.
- Issuance evidence: an unchanged or declining share count can hide issuance offset by buybacks. Weighted-average diluted shares also change for reasons other than a common equity offering. Review the equity note instead of substituting either field.
- A reported net-income field is not automatically the historical NI definition. Reconcile extraordinary, discontinued and other adjustments in the filing before entering it. Keep the definition consistent across the two years.
| Signal | Condition for 1 point | Inputs and comparison |
|---|---|---|
| 1. Positive ROA | NI(t) / A(t-1) > 0 | Current annual income; beginning assets. A loss or zero income fails. |
| 2. Positive CFO | OCF(t) / A(t-1) > 0 | Annual operating cash flow, not free cash flow. |
| 3. Improving ROA | NI(t) / A(t-1) > NI(t-1) / A(t-2) | Compare both years on their own beginning asset bases. |
| 4. Accruals | OCF(t) / A(t-1) > NI(t) / A(t-1) | Both use the same positive denominator. This is an earnings-quality flag, not proof of manipulation. |
| 5. Lower leverage | Debt(t) / average A(t) < Debt(t-1) / average A(t-1) | Long-term debt includes its current portion. Equal leverage earns zero in this worksheet. |
| 6. Improving liquidity | CA(t) / CL(t) > CA(t-1) / CL(t-1) | Year-end current assets and current liabilities. Both liability denominators must be positive. |
| 7. No equity issuance | Common shares issued during t = 0 | Use gross issuance evidence. Repurchases do not offset new issuance; a split is not a capital raise. |
| 8. Improving gross margin | [Sales(t) - COGS(t)] / Sales(t) > [Sales(t-1) - COGS(t-1)] / Sales(t-1) | Full-year net sales and cost of sales; both sales denominators must be positive. |
| 9. Improving asset turnover | Sales(t) / A(t-1) > Sales(t-1) / A(t-2) | This worksheet fixes the beginning-assets convention from section 2.3.3 of the paper. |