Zillow Group, Inc. research snapshot
Z AI stock analysis currently reads Zillow Group as a valuable real estate audience and data platform that is moving from a traffic-led advertising model toward a broader transaction, rental, mortgage, and software ecosystem. At the August 3, 2026 data cutoff, the latest located Class C close was $34.06 on July 31, implying a market capitalization near $7.82 billion using 228.8 million shares. Q1 2026 revenue grew 18% year over year to $708 million and GAAP net income was $46 million, and TTM revenue reached about $2.69 billion with TTM net income near $61 million. The stock sits above its 50-day moving average near $33.29 but well below its 200-day average near $51.64 after a 56.9% 12-month decline. The investment case still depends on housing activity, partner spending, listing-data access, the FTC and shareholder litigation, the timing of Q2 results on August 5, and durable margin expansion. This page uses scenarios rather than a certain price prediction and is for informational use only, not investment advice.
Current price
$34.06 July 31, 2026 close, Class C
Market cap
$7.82 billion
AI score
58 / 100
Rating
Improving platform, high legal and housing-cycle risk
Trend status
Neutral to improving after a deep drawdown, with price above the 50-day moving average but still far below the 200-day moving average
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Zillow helps consumers search, rent, buy, sell, finance, and manage real estate while selling leads, advertising, mortgage services, rental marketplace access, and software to industry professionals. Q1 2026 revenue rose 18% to $708 million and TTM revenue was about $2.69 billion. | High |
| Moat | The moat is built from brand awareness, a large home and rental data set, consumer traffic, agent and property-manager workflows, and cross-product distribution. It is meaningful, but consumers and professionals can use multiple portals and Zillow depends on external listing feeds, including disputes with MLSs such as MRED. | Medium |
| Management | CEO Jeremy Wacksman has led Zillow since 2024, while co-founders Richard Barton and Lloyd Frink retain strong voting control through the Class B structure. Buybacks have been aggressive, including $626 million of repurchases in Q1 2026, but the February 2026 disclosure of a roughly 200 basis point legal expense headwind showed how fast legal costs can pressure results. | Medium-high |
| Financial trend | Revenue rose from $1.945 billion in 2023 to $2.583 billion in 2025, and TTM revenue is about $2.69 billion. GAAP net income improved from a $112 million loss in 2024 to $23 million of profit in 2025 and $61 million on a TTM basis, but gross margin has trended lower and stock-based compensation remains material. | High |
| Valuation | At $34.06, financial_rigor.py calculates about 141.92x TTM EPS using the reported $0.24 EPS, 1.77x book value, 23.33x free cash flow, and a 4.29% FCF yield. StockAnalysis reported a trailing P/E near 128x on a slightly different EPS basis and a forward P/E of 13.61x, so the trailing multiple is distorted by a recent earnings inflection and forward assumptions matter more than the headline ratio. | High |
| Technical trend | The July 31 Class C reference price of $34.06 was above the tracked 50-day moving average near $33.29 and below the 200-day moving average near $51.64. RSI near 55.42 was neutral, while beta near 1.95 and a 52-week range of $29.23 to $93.88 show elevated volatility. | Medium-high |
| Risk level | Risk is high because the company faces housing and mortgage sensitivity, partner budget pressure, listing-data disputes, the FTC and states lawsuit over the Redfin rental partnership, a July 2026 securities fraud class action, founder control, dilution, and thin GAAP margins. | High |
| AI confidence | AI confidence is high for historical data and medium for forward scenarios. The data set is rich, but the key valuation question is how much of the recent profit improvement is durable after legal costs, stock compensation, and housing-market normalization, and Q2 2026 results arrive on August 5, 2026. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | Investment certainty is low to medium. The platform has strategic value, but the path from audience scale to durable per-share earnings is not yet proven across a full housing cycle and an active litigation calendar. | Low-medium |
Z AI stock forecast
The Z AI stock forecast uses scenario ranges rather than a single target. The required three-scenario sensitivity used a $2.50 implied forward EPS, calculated from StockAnalysis forward P/E of 13.61x and the $34.06 reference price. With 15%, 8%, and negative 5% annual EPS growth and 25x, 18x, and 12x terminal multiples over three years, financial_rigor.py produced mechanical values near $95.10, $56.70, and $25.70. The $2.50 starting EPS is inferred from a market multiple and analyst-adjusted earnings, not company GAAP guidance, so these are research sensitivities and not price promises.
$78 to $98
More likely if Zillow sustains double-digit revenue growth, Rentals keeps expanding near 40%, Zillow Home Loans scales without credit surprises, housing turnover improves, legal exposure stays contained, GAAP margins expand, and the market supports a premium growth multiple.
$45 to $60
More likely if revenue growth gradually normalizes toward the high single digits to low teens, Rentals remains the clearest growth engine, traffic stabilizes, legal costs stay contained, and earnings improve enough to justify a mid-teen to high-teen multiple on forward profits.
$18 to $28
More likely if housing and mortgage activity weaken again, traffic or partner budgets fall, MLS feeds become less reliable, the FTC or securities cases lead to costly remedies, legal expenses persist, or the market values Zillow on a low-growth revenue multiple.
Z AI technical analysis
Z AI technical analysis was neutral to improving at the August 3, 2026 cutoff. The latest located Class C close was $34.06 on July 31. StockAnalysis reported a 50-day moving average near $33.29, a 200-day average near $51.64, RSI near 55.42, beta near 1.95, and 20-day average volume near 3.32 million shares. Price has reclaimed the 50-day average but remains far below the 200-day average after a 56.9% 12-month decline. These static levels should be refreshed before any trade.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price reference | $34.06 | StockAnalysis Class C close for July 31, 2026, with a $34.00 after-hours quote. The quote should be refreshed before execution because Q2 2026 results are scheduled for August 5, 2026. |
| Near support | $33.20 to $33.68 | The lower end uses the July 31 intraday low near $33.20 and the prior close near $33.71. A break below this zone would put the 50-day average near $33.29 back under test. |
| Range support | $29.23 to $30.08 | The 52-week low near $29.23 and recent late June and July lows around $30.08 mark the area where buyers have appeared. Repeated tests without improving volume can make support less reliable. |
| Near resistance | $34.22 to $34.80 | The first band includes recent July highs near $34.22 and the July 29 high near $34.80. A weekly close above this band would confirm the short-term recovery. |
| Range resistance | $35.50 to $36.50 | June trading clustered in this zone before the July breakdown. It now acts as supply that sellers used on earlier bounces. |
| Major resistance | $51.64 | The tracked 200-day moving average. A recovery this far would require a major change in the current price trend and operating narrative. |
| 50-day moving average | $33.29 StockAnalysis snapshot | The July 31 reference price of $34.06 was above this intermediate trend measure, a modest positive that needs confirmation. |
| 200-day moving average | $51.64 StockAnalysis snapshot | The large gap between price and this longer trend measure points to a still-damaged primary trend. |
| Momentum | RSI near 55.42 | The indicator was neutral to slightly positive, so momentum has stopped falling but has not yet signaled a strong uptrend. |
| Volume and volatility | 3.32 million average volume; beta 1.95 | A reclaim of resistance is more credible if volume expands, while the high beta requires smaller risk exposure than a low-volatility stock. |
| Invalidation | Sustained close below $29.23 | A break below the 52-week low weakens the technical thesis. A fundamental invalidation also occurs if Q2 results, traffic, partner spending, or legal outcomes deteriorate materially. |
Z AI trading strategy
The Z AI trading strategy below is a rules-based research framework, not personalized advice. Pair price action with Q2 2026 results due August 5, Rentals growth, traffic, net income, free cash flow, stock-based compensation, legal developments, and listing-feed access.
Watch for Z to close a week above the $34.22 to $34.80 resistance band on stronger volume, with confirmation from stable traffic, double-digit revenue growth, improving GAAP margins, and no material deterioration in the FTC, securities, or MLS cases.
A failed reclaim followed by a close below $33.20 weakens the near-term setup. A close below $29.23 invalidates the chart recovery thesis.
If Z trades near the $29.23 to $30.08 support area without a new legal, traffic, or earnings shock, compare the lower quote with the long-term value of Zillow audience, data, rentals, mortgages, and software products and with the forward P/E near 13.6x.
Do not treat a lower quote as value if listing access worsens, partner budgets contract, Rentals growth slows sharply, GAAP profitability does not persist, or litigation outcomes turn costly.
Track Q2 2026 results on August 5, Residential revenue per visit, Rentals revenue and multifamily property count, mortgage origination volume, average monthly unique users, visits, adjusted EBITDA, GAAP operating income, free cash flow, share count, stock-based compensation, and legal reserves.
Lower confidence if traffic falls without monetization gains, cash is consumed by buybacks while earnings remain thin, partner concentration rises, or regulatory, listing-feed, and shareholder litigation reduce inventory, reach, or margin.
Investment research summary
Customers pay Zillow to reduce search and transaction friction across the home journey. Consumers get discovery, estimates, listings, rental tools, financing, and transaction support. Agents, lenders, builders, and property managers pay for qualified demand, advertising, leads, software, and marketplace distribution. The economic engine is monetizing high-intent housing attention without owning the underlying home transaction.
The moat combines a familiar consumer brand, a large home and rental data set, audience reach, product integrations, agent software, and network density between consumers and real estate professionals. Zillow Rentals is now a connected app inside Google Gemini, and Zillow Pro gives agents a paid membership with consumer insights. The advantage can widen if Zillow connects more steps from search to closing, but it is not a hard network effect because consumers and professionals can multi-home across Zillow, Redfin, Realtor.com, MLSs, broker platforms, and Google.
The thesis fails if housing and mortgage activity remain weak, agents and property managers cut budgets, Google or broker platforms capture search intent, MLSs such as MRED restrict listing feeds, the FTC rental case or securities litigation produces costly remedies, traffic declines faster than monetization improves, or stock-based compensation and buybacks fail to create per-share value. The most important error would be confusing audience scale with durable pricing power.
Jeremy Wacksman became CEO in 2024 after senior product and operating roles at Zillow. Co-founders Richard Barton and Lloyd Frink remain co-executive chairmen, and Class C stock is non-voting while the founders hold concentrated voting power through Class B shares. The February 2026 disclosure that legal expenses created a roughly 200 basis point EBITDA headwind triggered a 16.5% single-day drop, so the market is testing management credibility on cost and legal guidance. The capital-allocation test is whether buybacks, product investment, and acquisitions earn more than the cost of dilution and legal risk.
The long-term opportunity is a more digital, data-driven housing market. Zillow data shows the typical U.S. asking rent near $1,965 in June 2026, up 2.2% year over year, home sales rose about 5.9% in June, and the housing deficit is estimated near 4.7 million homes. The counterweight is that housing is cyclical, mortgage rates affect transactions, listing data is controlled by third parties, and policy and litigation can reshape agent and portal economics.
The $34.06 Class C reference price equates to about 141.92x TTM EPS and 23.33x free cash flow using the required exact calculations, while StockAnalysis reports a forward P/E near 13.61x on analyst-adjusted earnings. The trailing P/E is not a clean measure because GAAP earnings only recently turned positive, but the thin profit base leaves little room for an operating setback. A margin of safety requires evidence that Q1 profitability is repeatable, Rentals growth converts to cash, legal costs stay contained, and share repurchases improve per-share economics rather than masking dilution.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| Class C current price | $34.06 July 31, 2026 close | StockAnalysis Z quote | August 2, 2026 |
| Market capitalization | $7.82 billion, calculated from $34.06 x 228.8 million shares | StockAnalysis statistics and financial_rigor.py | August 2, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding | 228.80 million, with a 5.94% one-year increase | StockAnalysis statistics; total-company share count | August 2, 2026 |
| TTM and FY2025 revenue and mix | TTM revenue about $2.693B; Residential $1.737B, Mortgages $222M, Rentals $684M, Other $50M. FY2025 total $2.583B with Residential $1.704B, Mortgages $199M, Rentals $630M, Other $50M. | StockAnalysis financials and Zillow 2025 Form 10-K | August 2, 2026 |
| Five-year revenue trend | $2.132B in 2021, $1.958B in 2022, $1.945B in 2023, $2.236B in 2024, and $2.583B in 2025 | StockAnalysis financials | August 2, 2026 |
| TTM and FY2025 profitability | TTM net income $61M and TTM gross margin 73.34%; FY2025 net income $23M and operating cash flow $368M | StockAnalysis financials and Zillow 2025 Form 10-K | August 2, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 operating results | $708M revenue, $46M net income, $182M adjusted EBITDA, and $127M adjusted free cash flow | Zillow Q1 2026 press release | August 2, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 revenue drivers | Residential $450M, Mortgages $64M, Rentals $183M; 220M average monthly unique users, 2.3B visits, and purchase loan origination volume up 96% to $1.5B | Zillow Q1 2026 press release | August 2, 2026 |
| Cash and debt | $795M cash and equivalents, $429M total debt, and $366M net cash at the TTM balance date; $788M cash and investments at the end of Q1 2026 | StockAnalysis statistics and Zillow Q1 2026 press release | August 2, 2026 |
| Valuation ratios | 128.26x TTM P/E (StockAnalysis), 141.92x using $0.24 EPS in financial_rigor.py, 1.77x P/B, 23.33x P/FCF, and 4.29% FCF yield | StockAnalysis statistics and financial_rigor.py | August 2, 2026 |
| Technical data | 50-day moving average $33.29, 200-day moving average $51.64, RSI 55.42, beta 1.95, and 20-day average volume 3.32M | StockAnalysis Z statistics | August 2, 2026 |
| Analyst forecast | Consensus Hold from 7 analysts, average price target $55.83, range $37 to $76, and next earnings date August 5, 2026 | StockAnalysis Z forecast | August 2, 2026 |
| Governance and control | Class C is non-voting; Richard Barton and Lloyd Frink hold concentrated voting power as co-executive chairmen through Class B shares | Zillow 2025 Form 10-K and 2026 proxy statement | August 2, 2026 |
| Legal and listing-data risk | FTC and states challenged the Redfin rental partnership; a securities fraud class action was filed July 24, 2026; and Zillow is in a listing-data dispute with MRED, which removed most Chicago listings | FTC and public case updates | August 2, 2026 |
This Z AI stock analysis is an informational research tool only. It is not investment advice, financial planning, tax advice, or a recommendation to buy or sell Zillow Group Class C stock. Forecast scenarios are based on available public data as of the stated cutoff date and can be wrong if earnings, housing activity, interest rates, traffic, listing access, legal outcomes, dilution, valuation multiples, or market conditions change. Q2 2026 results are scheduled for August 5, 2026, after this page cutoff.
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