Zillow Group, Inc. research snapshot
Z AI stock analysis currently reads Zillow Group as a valuable real estate audience and data platform that is moving from a traffic-led advertising model toward a broader transaction, rental, mortgage, and software ecosystem. At the July 12, 2026 data cutoff, the latest located Class C close was $32.34 on July 10, implying a market capitalization near $7.40 billion using 228.8 million shares. Q1 2026 revenue grew 18% year over year to $708 million and GAAP net income was $46 million, but the investment case still depends on housing activity, partner spending, listing-data access, legal outcomes, and durable margin expansion. This page uses scenarios rather than a certain price prediction and is for informational use only, not investment advice.
Current price
$32.34 July 10, 2026 close, Class C
Market cap
$7.40 billion
AI score
58 / 100
Rating
Improving platform, high execution and legal risk
Trend status
Bearish to neutral after a sharp drawdown, with price below the tracked 50-day and 200-day moving averages
Data cutoff (updated weekly)
July 12, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Zillow helps consumers search, rent, buy, sell, finance, and manage real estate while selling leads, advertising, mortgage services, rental marketplace access, and software to industry professionals. | High |
| Moat | The moat is built from brand awareness, a large home and rental data set, consumer traffic, agent and property-manager workflows, and cross-product distribution. It is meaningful, but consumers and professionals can use multiple portals and Zillow depends on external listing feeds. | Medium |
| Management | CEO Jeremy Wacksman has led Zillow since 2024, while co-founders Richard Barton and Lloyd Frink retain strong voting control through the Class B structure. Buybacks have been aggressive, including $626 million of repurchases in Q1 2026, so capital allocation and dilution need continued scrutiny. | Medium-high |
| Financial trend | Revenue rose from $1.945 billion in 2023 to $2.583 billion in 2025, and Q1 2026 revenue rose 18% year over year. GAAP net income improved from a $112 million loss in 2024 to $23 million of profit in 2025 and $46 million in Q1 2026, but gross margin has trended lower and stock-based compensation remains material. | High |
| Valuation | At $32.34, financial_rigor.py calculates about 134.75x TTM EPS, 1.68x book value, 22.15x free cash flow, and a 4.51% FCF yield. The trailing P/E is distorted by a recent earnings inflection, so forward assumptions matter more than the headline multiple. | High |
| Technical trend | The July 10 Class C reference price was below the tracked 50-day moving average near $36.08 and 200-day moving average near $55.07. RSI near 50.09 was neutral, while beta near 1.95 and a wide 52-week range show elevated volatility. | Medium-high |
| Risk level | Risk is high because the company faces housing and mortgage sensitivity, partner budget pressure, listing-data disputes, the FTC and states lawsuit over the Redfin rental partnership, founder control, dilution, and thin GAAP margins. | High |
| AI confidence | AI confidence is high for historical data and medium for forward scenarios. The data set is rich, but the key valuation question is how much of the recent profit improvement is durable after legal costs, stock compensation, and housing-market normalization. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | Investment certainty is low to medium. The platform has strategic value, but the path from audience scale to durable per-share earnings is not yet proven across a full housing cycle. | Low-medium |
Z AI stock forecast
The Z AI stock forecast uses scenario ranges rather than a single target. The required three-scenario sensitivity used a $2.39 implied forward EPS, calculated from StockAnalysis forward P/E of 13.52x and the $32.34 reference price. With 15%, 8%, and negative 5% annual EPS growth and 25x, 18x, and 12x terminal multiples over three years, financial_rigor.py produced mechanical values near $90.90, $54.20, and $24.60. The $2.39 starting EPS is inferred from a market multiple, not company GAAP guidance, so these are research sensitivities and not price promises.
$72 to $95
More likely if Zillow sustains mid-teens revenue growth, Rentals stays near 30% growth, Residential monetization improves, Home Loans scales without credit surprises, legal exposure remains manageable, GAAP margins expand, and the market supports a premium growth multiple.
$45 to $60
More likely if revenue growth gradually normalizes toward high single digits, Rentals remains the clearest growth engine, traffic stabilizes, legal costs stay contained, and earnings improve enough to justify a mid-teen to high-teen multiple on forward profits.
$18 to $28
More likely if housing and mortgage activity weaken, traffic or partner budgets fall, MLS feeds become less reliable, the Redfin rental case leads to costly remedies, legal expenses persist, or the market values Zillow on a low-growth revenue multiple.
Z AI technical analysis
Z AI technical analysis was weak at the July 12, 2026 cutoff. The latest located Class C close was $32.34 on July 10. StockAnalysis reported a 50-day moving average near $36.08, a 200-day average near $55.07, RSI near 50.09, beta near 1.95, and 20-day average volume near 4.91 million shares in its July 10 snapshot. These static levels should be refreshed before any trade.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price reference | $32.34 | Investing.com Class C historical-data snapshot for July 10, 2026. Other providers showed a slightly different last-update price, so the quote should be refreshed before execution. |
| Near support | $29.23 to $30.08 | The lower end uses the reported 52-week low near $29.23 and the recent June 23 low near $30.08. A break below this zone would weaken the short-term setup. |
| Range support | $31.30 to $32.30 | Recent daily lows around this band show where buyers have recently appeared, but repeated tests without improving volume can make support less reliable. |
| Near resistance | $34.46 to $36.08 | The first band includes the recent July 10 high near $34.46 and the tracked 50-day moving average near $36.08. |
| Major resistance | $55.07 | The tracked 200-day moving average. A recovery this far would require a major change in the current price trend and operating narrative. |
| 50-day moving average | $36.08 StockAnalysis snapshot | The July 10 Class C reference price was below this intermediate trend measure. |
| 200-day moving average | $55.07 StockAnalysis snapshot | The large gap between price and this longer trend measure points to a damaged primary trend. |
| Momentum | RSI near 50.09 | The indicator was near neutral, so the chart did not provide a strong oversold signal in the cited snapshot. |
| Volume and volatility | 4.91 million average volume; beta 1.95 | A reclaim of resistance is more credible if volume expands, while the high beta requires smaller risk exposure than a low-volatility stock. |
| Invalidation | Sustained close below $29.23 | A break below the 52-week low weakens the technical thesis. A fundamental invalidation also occurs if traffic, partner spending, or legal outcomes deteriorate materially. |
Z AI trading strategy
The Z AI trading strategy below is a rules-based research framework, not personalized advice. Pair price action with Q2 results, Rentals growth, traffic, net income, free cash flow, stock-based compensation, legal developments, and listing-feed access.
Watch for Z to reclaim the $34.46 to $36.08 resistance band and hold it on stronger volume, with confirmation from stable traffic, mid-teens revenue growth, improving GAAP margins, and no material deterioration in the Redfin or MLS cases.
A failed reclaim followed by a close below $31.30 weakens the near-term setup. A close below $29.23 invalidates the chart recovery thesis.
If Z trades near the $29.23 to $30.08 support area without a new legal, traffic, or earnings shock, compare the lower quote with the long-term value of Zillow audience, data, rentals, mortgages, and software products.
Do not treat a lower quote as value if listing access worsens, partner budgets contract, Rentals growth slows sharply, or GAAP profitability does not persist.
Track Residential revenue per visit, Rentals revenue and multifamily property count, mortgage origination volume, average monthly unique users, visits, adjusted EBITDA, GAAP operating income, free cash flow, share count, stock-based compensation, and legal reserves.
Lower confidence if traffic falls without monetization gains, cash is consumed by buybacks while earnings remain thin, partner concentration rises, or regulatory and listing-feed disputes reduce inventory or reach.
Investment research summary
Customers pay Zillow to reduce search and transaction friction across the home journey. Consumers get discovery, estimates, listings, rental tools, financing, and transaction support. Agents, lenders, builders, and property managers pay for qualified demand, advertising, leads, software, and marketplace distribution. The economic engine is monetizing high-intent housing attention without owning the underlying home transaction.
The moat combines a familiar consumer brand, a home and rental data set covering about 173 million homes, large audience reach, product integrations, agent software, and network density between consumers and real estate professionals. The advantage can widen if Zillow connects more steps from search to closing, but it is not a hard network effect because consumers and professionals can multi-home across Zillow, Redfin, Realtor.com, MLSs, broker platforms, and Google.
The thesis fails if housing and mortgage activity remain weak, agents and property managers cut budgets, Google or broker platforms capture search intent, MLSs restrict listing feeds, the Redfin rental partnership produces costly remedies, traffic declines faster than monetization improves, or stock-based compensation and buybacks fail to create per-share value. The most important error would be confusing audience scale with durable pricing power.
Jeremy Wacksman became CEO in 2024 after senior product and operating roles at Zillow. Co-founders Richard Barton and Lloyd Frink remain co-executive chairmen, and the 2025 Form 10-K reported about 35% and 22.7% of voting power respectively. The founders bring continuity and long-term orientation, but Class C stock is non-voting and concentrated control limits outside shareholder influence. The capital-allocation test is whether buybacks, product investment, and acquisitions earn more than the cost of dilution and legal risk.
The long-term opportunity is a more digital, data-driven housing market where consumers expect transparent search, instant estimates, online applications, embedded financing, and software-supported transactions. Zillow is positioned across that workflow, and Q1 2026 multifamily properties on Zillow Rentals reached about 76,000. The counterweight is that housing is cyclical, mortgage rates affect transactions, listing data is controlled by third parties, and policy changes can reshape agent economics.
The $32.34 Class C reference price equates to about 134.75x TTM EPS and 22.15x free cash flow using the required exact calculations. The trailing P/E is not a clean measure because GAAP earnings only recently turned positive, but the thin profit base leaves little room for an operating setback. A margin of safety requires evidence that Q1 profitability is repeatable, Rentals growth converts to cash, legal costs stay contained, and share repurchases improve per-share economics rather than masking dilution.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| Class C current price | $32.34 July 10, 2026 close | Investing.com Z historical data | July 12, 2026 |
| Market capitalization | $7.40 billion, calculated from $32.34 x 228.8 million shares | StockAnalysis statistics and financial_rigor.py | July 12, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding | 228.80 million | StockAnalysis statistics; total-company share count | July 10, 2026 |
| FY2025 revenue and mix | $2.583 billion total; Residential $1.704B, Mortgages $199M, Rentals $630M, Other $50M | Zillow 2025 Form 10-K and StockAnalysis financials | July 12, 2026 |
| Five-year revenue trend | $2.132B in 2021, $1.958B in 2022, $1.945B in 2023, $2.236B in 2024, and $2.583B in 2025 | StockAnalysis financials and Macrotrends revenue history | July 12, 2026 |
| FY2025 net income and cash flow | $23M GAAP net income, $368M operating cash flow, and $420M adjusted free cash flow | Zillow 2025 Form 10-K | July 12, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 operating results | $708M revenue, $46M GAAP net income, $182M adjusted EBITDA, and $127M adjusted free cash flow | Zillow Q1 2026 shareholder letter | July 12, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 revenue drivers | Residential $450M, Mortgages $64M, Rentals $183M; 220M average monthly unique users and 76,000 multifamily properties | Zillow Q1 2026 results | July 12, 2026 |
| Cash and investments | $788M at the end of Q1 2026; provider cash snapshot $795M, with a scope and timing difference | Zillow Q1 2026 shareholder letter and StockAnalysis statistics | July 12, 2026 |
| Valuation ratios | 134.75x TTM P/E, 1.68x P/B, 22.15x P/FCF, and 4.51% FCF yield using financial_rigor.py | StockAnalysis statistics and financial_rigor.py | July 12, 2026 |
| Technical data | 50-day moving average $36.08, 200-day moving average $55.07, RSI 50.09, beta 1.95, and 20-day average volume 4.91M | StockAnalysis Z statistics | July 10, 2026 |
| Governance and control | Class C is non-voting; Richard Barton and Lloyd Frink held about 35% and 22.7% of voting power at December 31, 2025 | Zillow 2025 Form 10-K and 2026 proxy statement | July 12, 2026 |
| Legal and listing-data risk | FTC and five states challenged the Redfin rental partnership; Zillow also reported a dispute with MRED and Compass over listing access | FTC and Zillow public case updates | July 12, 2026 |
This Z AI stock analysis is an informational research tool only. It is not investment advice, financial planning, tax advice, or a recommendation to buy or sell Zillow Group Class C stock. Forecast scenarios are based on available public data as of the stated cutoff date and can be wrong if earnings, housing activity, interest rates, traffic, listing access, legal outcomes, dilution, valuation multiples, or market conditions change.
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